Tampa Bay Devil Rays Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Mar 2, 2006 1:51 PM EST in News Comment 44 comments

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS TOP 20 PROSPECTS

Delmon Young, OF, Grade A
Wes Bankston, 1B, B+
Jason Hammel, RHP, B
Wade Davis, RHP, B
Elijah Dukes, OF, B
Jeff Niemann, RHP, B
James Houser, LHP, B
Chris Mason, RHP, B
Jamie Shields, RHP, B-
John Jaso, C, B-
Chuck Tiffany, LHP, B-
Reid Brignac, SS, C+
Shawn Riggans, C, C+
Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, C+
Andy Sonnanstine, RHP, C+
Jacob McGee, LHP, C+
Andrew Lopez, OF, C+
John Matulia, OF, C+
Mike Wlodarczyk, LHP, C+
Matt Walker, RHP, C
Wade Townsend, RHP, C

There is a LOT of potential variation here. This system could look outstanding a year from now if some of these guys develop.

Delmon is obviously the class of the system (and the minors in general). After that things are unclear. I like Wes Bankston more than a lot of people. Hammel is a wild card; could be good, could be bad. Elijah Dukes has outstanding tools and is developing the skills to go with them, but has a volatile personality. Niemann and Houser have injury/durability concerns.

Wade Davis is my candidate for a major breakout this year.

Many of the C+ guys are capable of taking major leaps forward this year, particularly Brignac and Hellickson. Control artist Sonnanstine puts up ungodly K/BB ratios, but his mediocre fastball worries scouts.

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No Tiffany?

No love for the chuckster?

by UCFKnights on Mar 2, 2006 1:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Surprisingly similar

to the Raysbaseball top 20. The two guys I feel may be underrated a hair are McGee, who's fairly similar to a lefthanded version of Davis with a bit less velocity, and Walker, who has great stuff but for whom a couple of bad starts when his arm was hurting really skewed his stats.

John - just wondering, does Bankston's recent conversion to 3B affect anything with respect to his ranking, or is it just way too early to tell since who knows how he'll handle it?

by Brickhaus on Mar 2, 2006 2:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

tiffayn

Forgot about Tiffany. I'm so damn sleep deprived right now that I keep forgetting to check the transaction lists.

by John Sickels on Mar 2, 2006 2:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wes Bankston,

Can someone please help me out with why the Rays are working Bankston out at 3rd base. I agree that there are not a lot of negatives to trying because if it doesn't work he can always go back to 1st. What i don't understand is if he sticks at 3rd, who is going to play 1st in 2007 or 2008? Also, this spring 3rd base is pretty crowded with them trying Huff there also and Greg Norton, Russ Branyon, Ty Wigginton and the Saun Burroughs. If only we could take the best from Norton, Branyon, wiggington and buroughs and make one solid 3rd baseman.

My only thoughts is that by next year the rays might have some money and getting a 1st basemen through trade or free agency is easier than a 3rd baseman.

Am I missing something here?

Also, having Huff at 3rd looks to be a nice sign that the front office might give Delmon a shot in right this spring.

Poe

POE

by bpoe13 on Mar 2, 2006 2:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Subject line!

Like you said, it's a lot easier to find a first baseman than a third baseman. It's also best to have your better players in the toughest position they're capable of playing because that leaves the easier positions open for players you like but can't play defense anywhere else. Having Bankston at 3rd, if he handles the transition well, will make him more valuable as a player and more valuable to the team because he frees up a spot at the far right of the defensive spectrum.

As for who plays first base in the future the Rays could have Gomes start to learn the position after Young comes up and he could eventually be the regular there. Also, John Jaso has a good bat but is no guarantee to stick at catcher so he could easily be a first baseman by the time he gets to the majors.

by Jim Wisinski on Mar 2, 2006 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wes

My coach is actually good friends with Wes and he told us that Huff was getting traded --- why Wes is moving to 3rd

by blee3543 on Mar 4, 2006 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Edwin Jackson

Does he make this list?

by cinqua on Mar 2, 2006 2:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

jackson

too many major league innings.

by John Sickels on Mar 2, 2006 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Where would Upton rank?

Still an "A", if he qualified? If not, why not?

by Grego on Mar 2, 2006 2:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Another request for a bankston to third comment-

we're all dying to know what you think.

by DeisJJ on Mar 2, 2006 2:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

3B

How many 1B to 3B conversions succeed?

Basically I am on wait-and-see mode with this.

by John Sickels on Mar 2, 2006 2:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Is

He really a 1b to 3b switch, or an OF to 3b switch with a stopover in between at 1b?

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Mar 2, 2006 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well, OK

Well, OK, but even so how many of these conversions even from the OF stick?

by John Sickels on Mar 2, 2006 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hardball Times...

THT had a whole series of articles about Third Base a few months back. In one part, they talked about conversion to and from 3B.

Some of the OF to 3B conversions include Pepper Martin, Mel Ott, Bob Elliot, Sid Gordan, Andy Pafko, Wally Westlake, Bobby Thomson, Frank Thomas(the 50s/60s version, obviously), Al Smith, Bill Tuttle, Don Demeter, Mike Shannon, Keith Moreland, and Pedro Guerrero.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/third-base-the-crossroads-part-three/

by calig23 on Mar 2, 2006 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Guerrero

Wow, hadn't thought about that in awhile... Forgot how absoutely horrendous he was at 3B. On a grounder, he would plant his feet and flip the ball to 1B underhand with his wrist... pure ugly.

How can I sleep tonight with this in my head?

I am reminded of the immortal words of Socrates, who said, "I drank what?"

by kings33 on Mar 2, 2006 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Heh

Obviously, it's worked better with some guys, and not at all with others...

by calig23 on Mar 4, 2006 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sonnanstine

I can't remember where I saw this... but there were reports that Sonnanstine's velocity was up last year to the 91-94 range (about 90-91 consistently) which would make it an average pitch considering the control he has over it. His FB used to just hit the upper 80's. Can anyone confirm this, and if true, does that affect how he is rated?

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Mar 2, 2006 2:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I read that

in a South Bend newspaper, but I would need to dig for the link.

by Brickhaus on Mar 2, 2006 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

John

Where do you think Gomes, Upton, Dukes, Young, Crawford, Baldelli, Gathright and Bankston will end up on the defensive end?

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Mar 2, 2006 2:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

position

Well, I can't see Dukes, Young, Crawford, Baldelli, or Gathright anywhere but in the outfield. Who ends up in left or center or right or another team...who knows? I've given up trying to predict what the D-Rays will do.

Unless Upton gets his errors under control this year, I can't see him as a SS much longer. Probably another OF. Bankston and Gomes look like 1B to me down the line.

by John Sickels on Mar 2, 2006 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Another thread

There was talk in another thread about trying Dukes at 1B (with Bankston going to third). Along that same vein, do you think Dukes has the tools to handle third? I can't imagine first would be a problem.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Mar 2, 2006 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

I saw Dukes play a few games in the Cali league and it would seem a waste to stick him at 1b. He is a plus defender, great speed, good jumps, strong and accurate arm.

by ScottAZ on Mar 2, 2006 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dukes

My guess is that Dukes will put up a 900+ OPS in Durham forcing the Rays' to make a critical decision about it's future. Do they stick with Rocco in CF, or do they trade him and give the job to Elijah.

As for the make-up issue, there hasn't been ANY off the field issues for well over a year, but he's ultra competitive and sometime in the heat of the moment, he can lose it during the game. He attended anger management courses over the off-season, which to me shows that he's trying.

A guy on raysbaseball.com talked to him at fan fest for like 20 minutes. He said he's not only an absolute monster physically, he's one of the nicest, humble guys he's ever met. He said Elijah talked about how much he wants to stay and play for his home town team. He really wants to succeed and do it in Tampa. I really like the guy and his chances to become a star in CF. If he plays CF, he could be invalueble as a 30 hr CFer. I'm excited about the guy.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Mar 2, 2006 11:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I tend to agree on Dukes

It's extremely hard to find any expert who seems willing to compliment Dukes without bringing "makeup issues" and the like.

He might have issues to work through, but I don't think he's being done any favors by continuing to blare it out loud. It's got to be very frustrating, especially when it's apparent that the guy wants to make positive changes. At some point, people are going to have to accept this and move on, and just hope that he can maintain good behavior.

As a ballplayer, he's VERY intriguing. Good combination of big tools and real skills.

by mrkupe on Mar 3, 2006 7:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

True, but in baseball people carry labels for years, sometimes even careers. Dukes could go a decade without another mishap but would still probably carry the hot-head stigmata.

When I saw him in the Cali League he hustled out every play and actually seemed to have a clue for a "tools" player. I saw him go the other way with a few hits, display solid discipline, and get good reads and jumps.

I would think he could become a .275/.345/.540 type of player with 25 homers, 30 steals.

by ScottAZ on Mar 3, 2006 9:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

is it just me...

is it just me or is jonny gomes very underrated?

he always seems to be put on the backburner, especially when people talk about notable sophomores and of course one of the first names you do hear is ryan howard. however look at their lines from last year:

howard: 312ab / 52r / 22hr / 63rbi / 33bb / 100k / 0sb / .288ba / .356obp / .567slg

gomes: 348ab / 61r / 21hr / 54rbi / 39bb / 113k / 9sb / .282ba / .372obp / .534slg

strikingly similar if you adjust for ab's...but nobody seems to give gomes the credit that they give howard, nor the credit i think he deserves. now im not trying to say that i think gomes has the same upside that howard does. what im saying is that it makes me very confused to read people projecting gomes for a 25hr year as a part-time dh/OF while howard has garnered projections of 35+hrs as a future MVP candidate. IMO if gomes could get a full season of ab's i see 30+hrs, 90-100 rbi and a .280ba as well as 15-20 sb's.

by robcast23 on Mar 2, 2006 4:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Rays fans underrate him

The big differences between the two are:

Howard should have a much higher batting average. Gomes' average may have been flukey high last year, unless there was a real improvement
Howard might have slightly better power. By the time Gomes is Howard's age, I doubt there will be much of a difference.
Gomes can run well and Howard is a baseclogger.
Gomes is about an average defensive rightfielder whereas Howard is an average to somewhat below average 1st Baseman. The reason Gomes will be DHing is because he has 3 even better defensive outfielders ahead of him, once Young gets called up, and because Huff's trade value will be higher by playing him in right rather than at DH where he probably belongs (although rumor has it that they're trying to push him back to 3rd, where he was a better defender than as an outfielder anyway, and has more trade value).
Gomes probably strikes out a bit more (not that Howard doesn't strike out quite a bit as well) and gets hit by pitches more (he's just one of those guys who gets hit by a lot of pitches).

Most of it is just a function of being in the AL vs. the NL. The NL rookie crop was really weak last season, so Howard, Duke and Francoeur got a ton of attention while there were plenty of rooks better than those 3 in the AL who didn't get as much attention because there were some pretty dominant rookies on the AL side.

Anyway, I haven't seen too many people projecting Gomes as a 25 HR guy. The biggest issue is the roster, because until Huff gets traded, the team will probably need to play him to keep his trade value up, and if the team wants to trade Gathright, they'll need to play him as well. That could lead to fewer at-bats towards the start of the season, but he should be able to put up some pretty solid years. FYI, I'm not nearly as bullish on Gomes as a lot of Rays fans, but I still think he'll be pretty darn good. I'm more convinced that he can maintain his general level of offense than, say, Cantu.

by Brickhaus on Mar 2, 2006 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

splits

if you look at them you will see a 1041 OPS for Howard against righties and a 421 against Lefties. So if his numbers are even OK against lefties they will soar past Gomes.

I think they will both slump this year. Just too many K's to expect them to keep up those numbers.

by pedrophile on Mar 3, 2006 1:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wlodarczyk

I saw Wlodarczyk pitch at BC... "Woody," they called him.

Anyone have any idea what his chances are? I remember him with good strike out numbers, but a bit of a control issue.

I remember his teammate, Joe Martinez, as being a somewhat better pitcher. I think he was also drafted last year - maybe by the Giants? Heckuva, well, spitter.

by edd on Mar 2, 2006 7:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wlodarczyk

He should be starting in A- this season. Word is he worked out this offseason to get into better shape. He did pretty well in short season and has decent stuff, but he'll probably never be considered a top prospect because he's already 22. Long-term, I think he's in the mix for a relief position, but AA will be the big test for him.

by Brickhaus on Mar 2, 2006 9:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Woody

Wow, with a last name like that, you NEED a nickname.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Mar 2, 2006 9:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Article

Here's an article on his progress and offseason...

http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/42-02272006-618893.html

by Brickhaus on Mar 3, 2006 8:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bankston

The switch to third just strikes me as another bit of weirdness from the TBDR Brain Trust. I hope it doesn't screw up his development. If Young weren't in the system he would be a lot better know. Lots of talent there, but this second position change worries me a bit.

by gardibolt on Mar 2, 2006 8:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Am I alone in thinking...

... that between his tools and skills Dukes is really the Rays' second most valuable prospect? I'll take a flyer on that temper before I take one on Hammel's fourth-starter arm any time...

by igreen01 on Mar 2, 2006 9:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agree

That he's probably the second most talented prospect (which is saying something) but he could end up being his own worst enemy.
On the other hand, Gary Sheffield and barry bonds managed to have pretty good careers.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Mar 2, 2006 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Truth

Dukes is a top 50 prospect in baseball in my opinion... I think his makeup issues are mostly behind him and overpublicized.

He has a plus arm, plus speed, plus power potential, ability to hit for average, and is developing good plate discipline. Not to mention the man is built like a linebacker (his former football position).

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Mar 2, 2006 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hammel

Is 6-6 with a projectable, athletic body and an arm that hits 96 with good control and some solid secondary stuff.

Hes not a great prospect but calling him a 4-th starter arm is entirely too dismissive.

Also you cant just ignore Dukes makeup.

by nms on Mar 2, 2006 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone besides me

able to look past Francisco Leandro's age? I know that most scouts aren't big on him either, but I gave him a 50 man roster spot on my sim team. His strength would obviously have to improve some more for him to be useful, but from what I know about his profile, I think it's possible.

by Brett Perryman on Mar 3, 2006 2:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not the only one

I was keeping an eye on him myself and considering using a spot on him at some point until you beat me to it.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Mar 3, 2006 9:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jon Barratt

LHP Jon Barratt - had a down year after having a solid debut in rookie ball the year before. How is his stuff? Is it still electric? And despite his small stature, do you think he can remain a starter?

by cincyinco on Mar 3, 2006 5:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wondering

I was wondering when you were going to ask about him :)

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Mar 3, 2006 9:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Reportedly

His velocity was down and his stuff was more inconsistent. Understandable, considering how the organization jerked him around. He actually pitched much better as a starter than as a reliever as well, but considering how stacked the pitching staffs will be from A- through AA in the Rays organization this year, I'm not sure whether he'll get the opportunity to remain a starter unless he stays in Visalia, which probably wouldn't be the best thing in the world for his development (IMO, he needs a change of scenery after last year, even if it's going back down to low A, which he was skipped over entirely).

by Brickhaus on Mar 3, 2006 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

barratt

I have a report that his mechanics were a mess last year and that he lost confidence....chicken/egg which came first?

by John Sickels on Mar 3, 2006 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

makes sense

mechanics a mess = moving to the bullpen, pitching sparingly

lost confidence = LaMar skips him past low A ball

It has to be noted, the last month when he was moved to the rotation, in just 17 innings (over 4 starts) he had a 3.12 era (compared to a 7.55 as a reliever), a 2.75 component era (compared to a 5.02 as a reliever), a 640 OPS allowed (compared to a 889 as a reliever) and a 27.5% strikeout rate (compared to a 21.2% as a reliever).

by RaysBB on Mar 4, 2006 10:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs