Houston Astros Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Feb 9, 2006 2:10 PM EST in News

Jason Hirsh is tall

HOUSTON ASTROS

Jason Hirsh, RHP, Grade A-
Troy Patton, LHP, Grade B+
Hunter Pence, OF, B+
Jimmy Barthmaier, RHP, B+
Fernando Nieve, RHP, B
Brian Bogusevic, LHP, B
Eli Iorg, OF, B
Ben Zobrist, SS, B-
Felipe Paulino del Guidice, RHP, C+
Matt Albers, RHP, C+
Justin Towles, C, C+
Juan Gutierrez, RHP, C+
Koby Clemens, 3B, C+
Chance Douglass, RHP, C+
Josh Flores, OF, C+
Brooks Conrad, 2B, C+
Luke Scott, OF, C
Tommy Manzella, SS, C
Mitch Einertson, OF, C
Ralph Henriquez, C, C

This is a system with an intriguing top tier but less depth than the most elite systems. Hirsh took a huge step forward last year and I personally believe he will be able to maintain his progress. Patton looks great to me, granted all the standard young pitcher caveats. Barthmaier is underappreciated.

Hitting talent in this system has questions. Pence has impeccable statistics but will have to prove himself against advanced pitching. Iorg is very toolsy but there are doubts about his ability against higher-level breaking balls. Zobrist has played well but has been moved too conservatively through the system. . .we're not exactly sure how good he really is.

Keep an eye on Grade C+ guys like Albers, Towles, and Douglass, all capable of taking major steps forward soon.

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Comments

Much better than last 2 years

Overall the system has improved in the last two drafts. As far as being graded this system takes too much of a hit for not progressing players through the minors fast enough. I think it is a need by need basis that they use. They want to keep confidence in the players and develope in the lower levels. This is evident when they draft a 3 year college player and in the first full year they do great ending in high A, then thay are said to be too old because they will be 23 at the begining of next season. At what speed should they progress then? First season at Rokkie ball then the next at low and high A seems fine to me.

I think that Nieve, Conrad, Flores, Zobrist, and Scott are undervalued and graded. I did not think of Scott as still a prospect and if I graded him he would have been near the top of position players. He could be one of the best fourth outfielders in the game if not a starter on a club this year.

Nieve dropped too much after giving up 92 hits in 82Ip at AAA. All other numbers were great.

All in all there are many players that have something to prove this season in the 10-30 range that could be average, good, or great. I do think that the top 5 or 6 guys have tremendous potential and expect them to be very good major leagers in the coming years.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 9, 2006 2:33 PM EST reply actions

What is your opinion on Koby Clemens?

Don't know much about him.

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 9, 2006 2:39 PM EST reply actions

I know a little of him

Don't know if you mind me responding. He has a football players body, if you think his dad is stout Koby is too stout and 2-3 inches shorter. He could really lose a little bulk to play third. His fielding needs some work, but it might be mobility right now. He is fast and quick for his size, but it is football quick twitch, not the overall mobility a fielder needs. He is hugely powerfull and strong for baseball standards with a great arm. He threw several no-hitters for Memorial high in the last two years. He might move to catcher with his arm. Did well at Rookie ball with his bat and walked at a good clip, but struck out around 20% of the time.

I think if he slims down he could make a good third or corner outfield power hitter, in the mold of Jason Lane.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 9, 2006 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

you seem to no plenty

Any information from anywhere is always welcome. Thanks for the info.

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 9, 2006 3:33 PM EST up reply actions

Volume.

"I think if he slims down he could make a good third or corner outfield power hitter, in the mold of Jason Lane."

What if he just grew a few inches like a growing boy sure could?

by cooper7d7 on Feb 9, 2006 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

that is true, didn't think about that

He could grow, he has a baby face and his background shows that he will look grizzled like his father, so he could grow. He just hasn't lost the bulk he needed to be a great highschool football player. Some of those muscles are not needed and he needs to break the habbit of being a weightroom rat.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 9, 2006 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

re

One more thing...I think it's safe to say the organization as a whole was shocked at how good he is. They really like him (for his play). He'll get every benefit a prospect can.

by bootsy on Feb 9, 2006 4:13 PM EST up reply actions

saw him at NYPL

and he looked over matched. May have just been a bad day.
He had just been called up from the rookie league to SS ball.

I also saw him play a few father-son games at Fenway, but I don't think his swing then has much bearing. He was cuter then though ...

by cdamon @ Minor League Ball on Feb 9, 2006 9:17 PM EST up reply actions

clemens

Shamus seems to have Koby down pretty well.

by John Sickels on Feb 9, 2006 2:57 PM EST reply actions

Clemens fielding

In the few games I watched with him playing (about 5), he made great plays on slow hit balls coming in. Had decent range but the quick ball right to him handcuffed him several times. Once one hopped under his glove bounced up and hit him in the rear. I couldn't help but laugh.

He physically reminds me of a faster Ron Cey

by Duman on Feb 9, 2006 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

Einertson

I see you dropped Mitch Einertson from a B+ to a C. Perhaps not entirely unwarranted, given his awful season, but do you see him rebounding next year? Was his terrific pro debut a fluke? I admit, I was one of many to jump on his bandwagon.

by Ian Miller on Feb 9, 2006 3:37 PM EST reply actions

no clue about him

I wish there were splits available for MiL stats. I think he did better after his "leave". I know it never became a big deal in house and it was mostly resolved. He was never pulled back this year and has only seen 2 games at low A his rookie year.

It looks like he will be coming back and try next year. He still walked really well last year. Hopefully the power and average comes back in the future. He is being counted as found money if he ever does as good as 04 in my book.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 9, 2006 10:49 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

His second half was better. He needs to put a whole year together.

by Duman on Feb 10, 2006 11:15 AM EST up reply actions

Flores

When I got the book I looked at his grade and thought it was interesting. For some reason I think that his grade fell from a B or B- because of the 5 games he played in low A. It was only 18 AB's but it is another line to look at. In that small of a time anything could have happened, that is only a weekend at the plate and I think his other numbers at SS at age 19 deserved a higher grade.

John, do you think you dropped his grade because of the 18 AB's he had when he was promoted?

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 9, 2006 3:40 PM EST reply actions

flores

No, it's because of his poor BB/K/AB ratio. I originally had him at Grade B- but dropped it to C+ at the last second before the book went to press.

by John Sickels on Feb 9, 2006 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

Flores

John, Flores and White Sox prospect Aaron Cunningham, from what one can read from stats, pre-draft suff and that 'other' publication, these two guys seem eerily similar. Same age and build, both recently converted MIFers to CF, both Pioneer league all stars promoted to the SAL late in the season, even similar stats. Who do you think has the higher ceiling?

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Feb 9, 2006 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

He got better at the end of the Greeneville Season

If you look at Flores near the end of the season in Greeneville, he found his power and reduced his strike outs. He needs to be more comfortable in the field. He absolutely flies from first to third! When he rounds second, he looks like a Appolo Ono the speed skater. I kept expecting him to put a hand down to keep his balance.

by Duman on Feb 9, 2006 4:47 PM EST up reply actions

re

Did you consider an A- for Patton?

by bootsy on Feb 9, 2006 4:08 PM EST reply actions

yes

Yes. Concerns about his durability led to B+.

by John Sickels on Feb 9, 2006 5:03 PM EST up reply actions

re

Thanks John.

by bootsy on Feb 9, 2006 5:05 PM EST up reply actions

The Stro's

If cool names were a sign of good ballplayers this would look a lot better...

Jimmy Barthmaier, RHP, B+

Fernando Nieve, RHP, B

Brian Bogusevic, LHP, B

Eli Iorg, OF, B

Ben Zobrist, SS, B-

Felipe Paulino del Guidice, RHP, C+

by DeisJJ on Feb 9, 2006 4:22 PM EST reply actions

Question

Where would Boof Bonser and Merkin Valdez rate on your scale?

by drjayphd on Feb 9, 2006 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

And

Chip Cannon.

by abbreviatedman on Feb 9, 2006 7:08 PM EST up reply actions

Cool names

Someone should start a diary on the prospects with the 'coolest' names in their organization.

by William K @ Minor League Ball on Feb 9, 2006 7:55 PM EST up reply actions

Xan

The Braves have a 23yo(or somthing) backup rookie ball catcher from Ole Miss named Xan Barksdale, but he goes by James...that lame-o.

Dont forget Mayobanex Santana.

by nms on Feb 9, 2006 8:57 PM EST up reply actions

Great name

Matt Kniginyzky.. not sure how to pronounce it, my guess would be somethign like the 'silly English knigits' from Monty Python and the Holy Grail

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Feb 9, 2006 10:28 PM EST up reply actions

buchholz

Considering age and his AFL performance I thought Buchholz would at least make the top 20.

All in all this is a pretty average, maybe slightly above average system. The pitching is excellent but the hitting lags behind mirroring the major league team. Still, the last 2 drafts have really helped build this system back from the bottom.

by stubbyc on Feb 9, 2006 4:39 PM EST reply actions

Wow, out of sight out of mind

Buchholz would be around #10 in my list. He would get a B-. He was the most dominant pitcher at the AFL that I saw last year and his reports are vastly improved in the last 6-8 months. His reputation gets him half his grade and in any case the organization is high on him at the moment. Maybe the troubles are all gone.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 9, 2006 5:00 PM EST up reply actions

buccholz

I had some very negative reports about him from the PCL.

by John Sickels on Feb 9, 2006 5:03 PM EST up reply actions

I heard

A bunch of things started working after the season and into the AFL. His arm started to get better little by little. I know that you know way more than me. Is that true?

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 9, 2006 5:07 PM EST up reply actions

heard

I had heard he was throwing better, but I was unable to get to the AFL this year and I frankly don't know as much about what went on there in 2005 compared to what I usually know.

by John Sickels on Feb 9, 2006 5:13 PM EST up reply actions

make that 3-4 months

not into the middle of last season.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 9, 2006 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

10 out of 20 have been rookie ball the last 2 yrs

I live in Greeneville and have watched 10 of the 20 in the last two years. The Astros look like they are set in a few years if they can keep from trading these guys away.

by Duman on Feb 9, 2006 4:53 PM EST reply actions

I'm not completely sold on Hirsh yet

I think he's the #2 prospect in the system behind Patton. I think an A- is a bit high. If Patton's a B+, Hirsh is a B+ too. Hirsh had a lot of things going for him. His ERA at home was in the mid 2's. He's a flyball pitcher (.99) who played in park, at least for its first year, was an extreme pitchers' park lowering HRs and Rs by over 20%. His RA difference was even more apparent, nearly a run worse on the road. I like him, I think he could be a major league pitcher, but I would like to see a little more before naming him a top 25 prospect, ahead of guys like Russell Martin, Jon Lester, Billy Butler, Felix Pie and Philip Hughes. All 3 of those pitchers put up numbers as impressive as his, but with a much better age-to-leage ratio, and in the case of Martin and Pie the park factors going largely against them.

IIRC, the guys I mentioned were B+s.

by Ienpw on Feb 9, 2006 7:59 PM EST reply actions

Any info on Francisco Caraballo

I know very little about him and would appr any info on him. He hit 23 doubles and 23 HR this year in low A. It is always something to look at when a player hits that many homers in the minors. He did walk a little low but struck out a ton. Also he is listed at 185, not a real big guy.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 9, 2006 11:35 PM EST reply actions

Hirsh's Rating...

I'm not too big on knowledge when it comes to the Astros' system, but I just can't see how Hirsh rates as an A- instead of a B+ just comparing him to the other guys you have with that rating so far. I've heard pretty good things about him from a lot of different places, but nothing that I would qualify as glowing, and certainly not on the level of Saltalamacchia. Perhaps Hirsh just hasn't been getting the hype he deserves?

by DVicknabb on Feb 10, 2006 1:45 AM EST reply actions

scouting reports

the scouts and coaches that watch him have nothing but the best things to say about him. He has 3 plus pitches with good control. By all accounts he is ready and able to step up to the majors and do well right now. His potential has turned into ability, with his downward moving fastball in the mid 90's ready to cripple bats and bring out the slow rollers through the infield grass.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 10, 2006 1:17 PM EST up reply actions

Hirsh and Patton trade ?

As a White Sox fan, I follow the Contreras trade rumors. I understand that KW may not trade him but says that if he does he wants ML ready pitching back.
Personally, I think they should keep him but do you think that Hirsh and Patton for Contreras would be a fair trade ?

by White Sox Randy on Feb 10, 2006 11:35 AM EST reply actions

Its a joke right?

There is no way that would be a good trade. Plus the WS have a simular arm to Patton at the same level in Gio G

by Duman on Feb 10, 2006 12:46 PM EST up reply actions

Gio is in Philly

Gio went to Philly in the Rowand trade.

by VegasSteve on Feb 10, 2006 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

Oops

My bad, I had forgotten that move.

by Duman on Feb 10, 2006 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

Patton

Is the one minor leaguer that is untouchable. The club sees him as RoyO from the left side. If the team trades for Contreras they would be stupid, he has had one good season in the last several. Did you not think the sox could get Berkman and Roy for Contreras?

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 10, 2006 1:21 PM EST up reply actions

Crazy

That would be on the level of Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson. Maybe Buchholz or Astacio, but NOT those two.

by VegasSteve on Feb 10, 2006 1:26 PM EST up reply actions

breaking news..

When KW does finally trade Contreras, you guys will all be surprised by what he gets for him. I hope that you don't forget these posts.

They may not trade him to Houston, or at all, but if Clemens doesn't return to Houston, they will pay dearly for a starting pitcher or their season will go down the drain.

by White Sox Randy on Feb 10, 2006 1:45 PM EST reply actions

breaking news reply

The end of days is near. Let me think of another.... You will rue the day..... You'll all be sorry.... You better be looking over your shoulder wherever you go.... My brother talked to me like the once. Just ONCE.

That is all I can think of. I am sure Contreras will do fine and all the Cub/WhiteSox fans will live happily ever after. As far as the Astros I will be watching every day if they win or lose. It is all about the game to me. But they will be in the playoffs IMO.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 10, 2006 1:53 PM EST up reply actions

Pay dearly?

Last I looked, Houston had a couple studs named Oswalt and Pettitte fronting their rotation and a young improving Backe as well. And with Lidge, Wheeler, and Qualls in the bullpen, I'm not seeing your assertion. Might they look for another starter? Yes, but pay dearly? I wouldn't think so.

And, pardon me, but if you see Contreras as worth anything close to Patton and Hirsch, I think you'll be the one surprised if and when the White Sox trade him.

by hunteralan on Feb 10, 2006 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

Matt Clement

His name getting thrown around in a bunch of credible rumors (in general, not just the Astros) shows just how overvalued starting pitching can be in the trade market.

Then again, with Oswalt, Pettite, and Backe, they'd really just need a decent back-end starter, not a #1/#2, so they probably wouldn't pay THAT much for Contreras. Pedro Astacio won't KILL you, per se...

by drjayphd on Feb 10, 2006 2:09 PM EST up reply actions

busted out in a full on laugh

I actually scared the guys around me when I busted out when I read that post. Don't know what it was, but I got this picture in my head and couldn't handle it. Does that ever happen to any of yall?

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 10, 2006 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

weak division

I understand that Houston is in a weak division and a weak league for that matter but how do you think that you are going to the playoffs with only 3 starting pitchers and a weak lineup ?

Who will pitch the other 40% of the games - you do realize those need to be won also ? I'm glad that our GM realizes that we need 6 starters.

by White Sox Randy on Feb 10, 2006 2:13 PM EST reply actions

Not the Cardinals or Astros

That would be 2 of the best 5 or 6 teams in the last 10 years. Zeke, Wandy, Hirsh, Nieve, or Buchholz will pitch the other 40% of games. That is the way it will have to be for next year.

The offense will be much better in 06. Lots of homers I predict. And once again like clockwork there will be 5 ten game winners for the Stros in 06. With a top bullpen many games will fall in the Astros favor.

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 10, 2006 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

The point is

not that late rotation pitchers are needed but that why would you trade 2 future front end starters for back end help?

by Duman on Feb 10, 2006 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

Albers and Others...

I just received my book yesterday and read through all of the Astros guys this morning. Very interesting. A few comments:

Albers - personal problems have been worked out. At the Nolan Ryan camp he made an impression on many about how much happier he is this year. John's prediction of breakthrough will happen in '06.

Sellers - Would love to hear what John thinks about Sellers, as he wasn't in the book. I think this guy has a chance to break out this year.

Guiterrez - Great pick...never saw this kid comming. Could be very, very good.

by FredUD on Feb 10, 2006 9:07 PM EST reply actions

There were a few

more guys I would have liked to see in the book. Sellers just raked against younger guys. He would be a bonus if he ever developed, 964th pick.

I really don't understand why McLemore is not in the book. The report of a torn labrum is bogus. He pitched last week at the Ryan camp, I can't believe that they did not retract the "torn labrum" story.

If John is still reading this "Why is McLemore not in the book? Did you hear he had a torn labrum?"

Tim Purpura, This Bud is for you.

by Shamus on Feb 12, 2006 8:42 PM EST up reply actions

nieve v. hirsch

seems like nieve was ahead of hirsch while in the texas league. only after getting promoted did his overall numbers take a hit. is hirsch considered a notch higher based on his stuff and/or overall stats? just wondering how the rankings would shake out if nieve stayed down with hirsch and continued to dominate...

by primocruz on Feb 10, 2006 10:31 PM EST reply actions

re: nieve v. hirsh

From what I've read, Hirsh has great makeup in addition to great stuff. Nieve's breaking stuff isn't as consistent and the jury's still out on whether he'll have to settle with being a power reliever. Some analysts have questioned whether Hirsh will be a big-league starter, but after he stepped his game up in '05, many of them have been won over.

by astrosfan76 on Feb 11, 2006 7:30 PM EST up reply actions