Angel/A's Analysis and Pecota Breakdown

by Phil Gurnee on Feb 7, 2006 6:51 PM EST

Name    Vorp        Name    Vorp
Harden    35.7        Lackey    33.6
Haren    31.1        Colon    30.1
Zito    30.8        Escobar    19.4
Loaiza    29.0        Santana    16.7
Blanton    21.1        Weaver    22.8
Street    16.8        Rodriguez    23.9
Duchscherer    16.6    Shields    18.0
Witasick    11.1    Donnelly    9.9
Kennedy    14.3        Romero    3.0
Calero    11.5        Gregg    9.6
Saarloos    9.7    Carrasco    9.0
Cruz    7.8        Yan    3.5
Total 235.5        Total     199.5

I've added Weaver to the Angel rotation in anticipation that they sign him. Given how weak they are in 4/5 spots and how strong the A's are they should sign Weaver as he is a huge upgrade over Carrasco.
The Angels can match the top two with Lackey/Colon against Harden/Haren or Harden/Zito but they lose out to the depth of the A's quality pitching up and down the rotation.
The bullpen is closer but again I'd give the edge to the A's depth. The closers are even with Frankie and Street both doing the job as elite closers. Shields has the edge over Duchscherer but not as big as it once was.
If the A's suffer any injuries they can call on Sarloos or Juan Cruz or Gaudin or Kennedy to fill in. The Angels can call on Gregg or Bootcheck or Saunders. I'd rather have Cruz or Gaudin but that is just my opinion. I think the A's stole Gaudin from the BlueJays and I still think Juan Cruz can be a valuable pitcher. Jared Weaver might be the wild card here for the Angels as he could be ready to help if any injuries hit.

All in all I'd have to agree with the Pecota projections and give a heavy edge to the A's in the pitching wars.

Gaudin    19.0        Weaver    2.4
Flores    7.8        Bootcheck    -2.3
Serrano    5.2        Woods    -2.3
Garcia    5.1        Moseley    -3.4
            Jones    3.8

Hitting:
Angel Starters:
Last    AGE    POS    EqA    VORP
Mathis    23    2    .245    6.9
Molina    31    2    .214    -3.5
Kotchma    23    3    .255    4.4
Kennedy    30    4    .257    14.1
Figgins    28    5    .259    17.4
Cabrera    31    6    .241    13.2
Guerrer    30    7    .313    49.0
Erstad    32    8    .241    -3.2
Anderso    34    9    .262    15.8
McPhers    25    DH    .284    26.8
Rivera    27    DH    .263    9.0
                114.1
Angel Bench/Prospects
Morales    23    3    .272    15.9
Kendrick22    4    .277    36.1
Callapso23    4    .238    9.0
Quinlan    29    5    .248    3.0
Alfonzo    32    5    .242    3.1
Wood    21    6    .250    17.5
Aybar    22    6    .247    17.1
Rodrigue21    6    .247    10.0
Izturis    25    6    .244    7.8

A's Starters:
Last    AGE    POS    EqA    VORP
Melhuse    34    2    .245    2.4
Kendall    32    2    .240    10.5
Swisher    25    3    .276    15.7
Ellis    29    4    .270    25.7
Chavez    28    5    .286    35.4
Crosby    26    6    .276    32.3
Bradley    28    7    .279    23.8
Kotsay    30    8    .259    18.5
Payton    33    9    .250    5.3
Thomas    38    DH    .283    15.8
Johnson    26    DH    .281    20.2
                169.6
A's Bench/Prospects
Suzuki    22    2    .236    3.2
Barton    20    3    .265    12.2
Perez    26    4    .253    9.2
Ginter    30    4    .250    3.9
Scutaro    30    4    .245    9.9
Melillo    24    4    .256    16.1
Rouse    26    6    .239    6.3
Kielty    29    7    .266    7.4
Buck    22    7    .250    2.8
Watson    27    8    .267    8.9
Herrera    21    8    .249    6.2
Thomas    27    8    .242    0.3

Catcher - Even though Kendall is no big deal he has to be considered the favorite here as Mathis is such a wild card. This could end up being a huge hole for the Angels or it could be average while with the A's you know your average going in.
Advantage A's

1st Base-Pecota gives the edge to the A's but I'm disagreeing with their assessment of Kotchman. However baseball HQ also feels that Swisher is the better bet. I'm going out on the limb and picking Kotchman over Swisher so for me that makes it a push.
Even

2nd Base - Ellis is coming off his career year but even if he comes back to earth he's better the Adam Kennedy.
Advantage A's

SS - Crosby over Cabrerra and I won't waste any time on it.
Advantage A's

3b - Chavez over either Figgins or McPherson and again I won't waste any time on it.
Advantage A's

RF - Vlady over Milton and it is much bigger then the Pecota shows as they are giving Milton the Pecota number based on him being a CF which he is no longer. Having watched Milton play RF while Finley was miscast as the Dodger CF in Aug/Sept of 2004 I will say that A's fans will not be getting a very good right fielder. For some reason as good as Milton was playing CF he is not very good in RF. He hates the position and plays like he hates the position. It is also my opinion that by the time Milton matures his body will have betrayed him as his knee injury is going to give him huge problems in the future and his weight combined with his knee problems will sap his speed. He is really not very fast and is a terrible baserunner not just in steals but in all aspects of running bases. Those are subjective opinions from having watched Milton play for those times he was healthy enough to do so over the last 2 years.
Advantage Angels

CF - If the Angels put Erstad out here then Kotsay will give the A's a clear advantage. I think however that at some point during the year the Angels will give up on Erstad as an everyday player and Figgins will be the CF which makes this a closer call. Kotsay has the back problems which also factor in but I still have to go with the A's.
Advantage A's

LF - Anderson has slowed down but it doesn't take much to beat out Jay Payton. Now if the A's platoon Swisher and Payton then I think it is a push for now I'm giving the advantage to Anderson.
Advantage Angels

DH - Frank Thomas can't stay healthy and I don't expect him to have much of an impact on the A's this year. Maybe he can root them on to a WC from the bench just like he did the WS as the A's have enough hitting to complement the tremendous pitching that they should be in contention for the WS. I'm picking McPherson to kick some butt and Pecota agree's with me. A nice combo of McPherson/Rivera will match what Thomas can produce and Dan Johnson.
Push

Bench - With Figgins the Angels have a player who can fill in at 2nd/SS/3b/OF without missing a beat. Even if he starts out the 3b, if any of Kennedy/Erstad/Anderson go down he can move from 3b and McPherson or Quinlan can take over at 3b and in some cases they might be stronger if that was to happen.
Advantage Angels

Prospects to help in 2006
The Angels have better players right now waiting for Kennedy/Cabrerra to get hurt. For the Angels to match up with the A's they need Kennedy to get traded or hurt and have Kendrick installed as the everyday 2nd baseman. Jared Weaver might help in 2006. Can't see Barton helping in 2006 but Garcia could help in the bullpen.

Future:The Angels will be trotting out stud infielders at a brisk pace after 2006. If Wood can stick at SS and McPherson comes through at 3b they should move Aybar to CF and a future team of
Kotchman/Kendrick/Wood/McPHerson/Mathis/Vlady/Aybar/Expensive FA could be scary good. The A's counter with maybe the best young hitter in baseball depending on who you believe but most their good talent is already in the majors. This should be a good rivaly for years to come but for 2006 I will pick the A's unless Stoneman sells out his future for 2006.

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Comments

re

Swisher, who I'd take over GA, is in left. Payton is on the bench. I'd also easily take the A's bench (Payton, Antonio Perez) over the Angels bench

http://www.as-future.blogspot.com/

by blee1134 on Feb 7, 2006 7:43 PM EST reply actions

I've heard

that Payton will be platooning with Swisher in LF but since I expect Thomas to come up lame that would push Swisher back to 1st, Johnson to DH, and Payton to LF which is what I based my analysis on.
A Perez is just another utility infielder who can't field very well at SS or 3b. 2nd base is his best position but he hit way over his head last year based on his hit% of 35%. He'll be lucky to post a > 300 OBP in 2006 once his hit rate normalizes. JMO

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen.

by Phil Gurnee on Feb 7, 2006 7:57 PM EST up reply actions

Payton will be on the bench

Everyone knows this, and Payton has already publicly commented on it. He basically said he likes playing for the A's but wants to be on another team if he doesn't start with the A's. Swisher will not platoon. Payton will start often to give days off to Kotsay, Frank Thomas, Swisher, Johnson, and Bradley.

I don't think any of the prospects will get much of a look for either team in 06. The Angels definitely look better in the future than they look now. I'd also give the bench advantage to the A's. I'm not impressed with the Angels' offseason, and I think most Angels fans are upset with it. I like the move for Romero, but I don't really like any of their other moves.

I agree that I think they undervalue Kotchman, but I dissagree with their assessment of McPherson. I don't think he will have that much value in 06. His game just screams to me of a player whose game takes a few years to gel.

by LizardKing51 @ Minor League Ball on Feb 7, 2006 8:29 PM EST up reply actions

Serrano

Is he still with the team? I thought he signed elsewhere.

by TCapone30 on Feb 7, 2006 7:46 PM EST reply actions

BP made

many mistakes on teams for players in the their Pecota projections. I know I've changed at least 30 so far in my spreadsheet and these were moves that were made back in November. Evidently BP is not paying their interns enough to do proof work.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen.

by Phil Gurnee on Feb 7, 2006 7:59 PM EST up reply actions

re: perez

He'll be lucky to post a > 300 OBP in 2006 once his hit rate normalizes. JMO

From .360 to sub .300? I don't see it. His track record suggests that he'll be a solid hitter

http://www.as-future.blogspot.com/

by blee1134 on Feb 7, 2006 8:51 PM EST reply actions

agree strongly

The 360 OBP is much closer to his minor league norm. Last year looks like a strong, but reasonable progression given his previous record. A slight retrenchment would not surprise me, but a complete collapse would.

by cdamon @ Minor League Ball on Feb 7, 2006 9:13 PM EST up reply actions

Loaiza VORP

Check out the difference between Loaiza, Zito, and Haren in VORP. Apparently I'm not the only one who likes Loaiza as a solid above-average starter.

by limozeen on Feb 8, 2006 12:44 AM EST reply actions

Does

Vorp compare loaiza vs other 4 or 5 guys, or other starters or what. . . i like your insight and was definately well thought out. Only knock I would point out is that you use stats to back up your argument sometimes, and then your opinion on others. I dont really see Swisher in a platoon, being a switch hitter.

by SoCalSoxFan on Feb 8, 2006 2:27 AM EST reply actions

haha

I've thought the same thing about Loaiza. Sometimes pecota's way off, no doubt, but I can vouch that last year BP hit another aging pitcher, Kenny Rogers (albeit older), on the nose. BP predicted a big season in Texas for him, and a big season (in more ways than one) is what the Rangers got. (This year, by the by, pecota isn't so kind.)

The new pecota cards are out now, so, for us subscribers, we no longer have to look at the essences spread across an excel sheet. Here's Loaiza's card: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/loaizes01.php His comps are the old versions of Rick Rhoden, Kevin Appier, Dave Stewart & John Burkett, with a high similarity index score (60). I'd say that's about right. Loaiza isn't going to blow anyone socks off--as he did in 2003--but he knows how to throw strikes, and he's got a solid defense behind him. Pecota ranks him, overall, in the 30th-40th range among best vorps in baseball, which sounds right to me.

by Azteca on Feb 8, 2006 9:46 AM EST up reply actions

Pecota

In general, I take it with a large grain of salt, but it can be a decent indicator. I think Escobar is the clear mistake here. How Jered Weaver has a higher VORP than him is beyond me. Escobar IMO is much closer to Zito than Weaver.

by jc3 on Feb 8, 2006 10:33 AM EST reply actions

wrong weaver

the weaver he's included in the angels rotation is JEFF weaver, who's been rumored to be negotiating with the angels all week. jered weaver is projected for a 2.2 vorp (he's listed down there with the bullpen extras).

i like escobar's stuff--he's really been dominating since he's joined anaheim--but his elbow is going to be an issue. on paper the angels have a fabulous rotation, but counting on 190 innings from escobar and santana (who should be treated more carefully) with no backup plan is a mistake. i believe that's why they brought in carrasco (who's not much of an insurance policy, if you ask me) and why they ought to sign (jeff) weaver.

by jpahk on Feb 8, 2006 10:54 AM EST up reply actions

Oh, my mistake

Thanks for the info. I can definitely see it then. I think Jeff would be a good signing for them if they can get him for the right price.

by jc3 on Feb 8, 2006 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

hee hee

as an A's fan, i'm licking my chops to see what scott boras decides "the right price" will be for a wealthy, contending team that does have a serious starting pitching need.

by jpahk on Feb 8, 2006 11:03 AM EST up reply actions

Don' get so essaited, Lucy

If they sign Weaver it won't be for a big premium. Jeff's from Simi Valley, and supposedly he's willing to take something of a pay cut to play at home. But this remains to be seen, despite rumors that he has in fact been signed.

The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.

by scareduck on Feb 8, 2006 10:29 PM EST up reply actions

i'm skeptical

i know he's from the area, but the words "scott boras" and "hometown discount" don't exactly go together in my mind. i guess we'll see.

by jpahk on Feb 9, 2006 8:28 AM EST up reply actions

Jeffe Weaver

If the Angels sign Weaver, they would only sign him to one-year deal plus an option of some kind for a seond year. They've got a number of pitching prospects in the wings -- e.g., Jeff Weaver's little brother -- and therefore don't want to commit long-term to a guy like Jeff. He'd be a stop-gap, nothing more. And don't count on Scottie Boras getting the better of ol' Bill Stoneman. The last time they tangled, Stoneman got the better of Boras, with Boras' client Jeff Weaver accepting Stoneman's "take-it-or-leave-it" offer.

by Crows Landing on Feb 11, 2006 4:15 PM EST up reply actions

a number of pitchign prospects

waiting in the wings? Yes, there is Jeff Weaver. Then there is Adenhart, who is still far away. After that??? Joe Saunders you could consider, but he has bad peripherals and sucked in AAA.

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 11, 2006 4:24 PM EST up reply actions

Escobar

I was also surprised by the Escobar projection, but after looking closely at the PECOTA card, it makes a lot more sense to me. Escobar is a high strikeout/high walk pitcher who is 30 years old. He is also a neutral GB/FB pitcher who has given up substantially fewer home runs than one would expect given this fact. The 50th percentile projection has him reverting to slightly fewer than league average home runs (which it has been shown are more closely predicted by GB/FB tendencies than by prior HR rate) Even the 90th percentile PECOTA has him giving up more homers than last year.

Pitchers don't usually see their strikeout rates increase so the question (and the apparent driving force in the different PECOTA projections for him) is what happens to his walk rate. If it improves to league average he could have an ERA of 3.25. If it falls to 4 (equiv. BB/9) it's looking like an ERA the wrong side of 5. I don't know what will happen, but this vulnerability to a slightly worse walk rate seems to be why his projection is lower than expected.

Finally, remember that PECOTA is not kind in terms of playing time to players coming off of injuries. I think we fans are a lot more optomistic that players will be able to put in full seasons than is justified. I think most Angels fans expect more than PECOTA's 140 innings from Escobar just like A's fans expect more than 180 innings from Harden.

by DanInNY on Feb 8, 2006 11:03 AM EST up reply actions

VORP

Projected VORP is a poor way to be comparing teams. PECOTA isn't a playing time predictor in that it projects playing time only using past stats, not on likely 2006 usage. I would be your projected Angels pitchers have fewer projected IP than the A's pitchers, which means the VORP comparison is not legitimate.

What you should be doing for pitching is using EqERA and your own IP projections, then adjust those for ERA:RA ratio (could just use last year's).

For the offense, MLVr (runs a player is worth per game relative to an average batter) is the easiest way to compare--but again you should use your own playing time projections.

by AthertonA on Feb 8, 2006 10:49 AM EST reply actions

Just using Pecota

as a guideline for the players. The comments were subjective based on reviewing Pecota/HQ/BillJames projections and my own opinions. I displayed the Pecota projections because I already have them in a spreadsheet form and thus they are easy to cut and paste. Thanks for the feedback and I certainly swished on Payton/Swisher regarding the platoon but I think it will be a moot point once Johnson becomes the DH, with Swisher at 1st and Payton in left or when Kotsay's back acts up and Payton moves to CF or when Milton has some kind of injury and Swisher moves to RF. This team can survive two injuries to any of Thomas/Kotsay/Milton with the extra outfield they are carrying plus Barton ready to hit right now. I did this exercise as an Angel fan and expected the A's to come out on top but I was a bit surprised at how much better the A's are on paper then the Angels as we head into 2006 The Angels need a lot of things to go right to compete in 2006. Of course they also have the pipeline to make any kind of deal they want as they see how their team works in the current configuration. However Stoneman has never been one to make a big midseason move so he may not be up to the task.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen.

by Phil Gurnee on Feb 8, 2006 12:30 PM EST up reply actions