Seattle Mariners Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Feb 26, 2006 12:21 PM EST in News Comment 32 comments

Adam Jones (photo courtesy of Dave Sanford)

SEATTLE MARINERS TOP 20 PROSPECTS

Jeff Clement, C, Grade A-
Adam Jones, OF-SS, Grade B+
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, B
Clint Nageotte, RHP, C+
Chris Snelling, OF, C+ (grade change from book)
Matt Tuiasosopo, SS, C+
Shin-Soo Choo, OF, C+
Yorman Bazardo, RHP, C+
Bobby Livingston, LHP, C+ (grade change from book)
Wladimir Balentien, OF, C+
Ryan Feierabend, LHP, C+
Luis Valbuena, 2B, C+
Michael Saunders, OF, C+
Michael Wilson, OF, C+
Sebastian Boucher, OF, C+
Osvaldo Navarro, SS, C+
Edgar Guaramato, RHP, C+
Cesar Jimenez, LHP, C
Anthony Vavaro, RHP, C
Craig James, RHP, C

A difficult system to get a handle on. Clement and Jones are the obvious top guys, but after that things become unclear.

Chris Snelling is a very good hitter, but he's also good at getting hurt. I gave him a Grade C in the book, but will increase that to C+. He's a Grade B guy on his own merits, but because of his health record I think we have to be careful.

Clint Nageotte has that killer slider, but control problems remain an issue.

The guys after him all have a mixture of strengths and weaknesses. Livingston has outstanding command but his stuff is only marginal. Bazardo has a good arm but his component ratios have never been impressive. Balentien has plus power but will face a difficult transition against Double-A pitching.

One guy I didn't put in the book that I should have is Emiliano Fruto. He throws quite hard but his track record is erratic; he could slot into the bullpen sometime this year. I'd see him as a Grade C+ type.

As for Kenji Johjima, your guess is as good as mine. He turns 30 this year and I don't really count him as a "prospect" given his experience in Japan.

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Breakout candidates

Hey John,

Are there any guys in the system that you think could have breakout years in 2006?

by Jerry on Feb 26, 2006 12:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

two quick questions

Hi John,

Thank you very much for doing this. I have two questions.

1. If Betancourt, Lopez and Foppert had not lost their prospect status, how would you rank them? I remember everybody had a hard time ranking Betancourt last year.
2. Do you think the Mariners made a right decision to draft Clement rather than Tulowitzki?

Thanks!

by toshi on Feb 26, 2006 1:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

rene rivera

i would also be interested in where rene rivera would rank if he were still eligable.

by overlord on Feb 26, 2006 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rivera

With only 51 MLB ABs, I assume he's still eligible. Since he wasn't in John's 2005 prospect book either, I would think he's considered a non-prospect.

by Flynn Blake on Feb 26, 2006 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jamal Strong

Is he still with the Mariners?

I thought he left as a minor league free agent after the 2005 season...

by Adam J Morris on Feb 26, 2006 2:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

strong

THe last roster I saw had him on it, but you're right, he was given free agency in late december. I can't find his name on any other rosters or transaction lists...anyone know what happened to him?

Until we find out I'll move him off the list.

by John Sickels on Feb 26, 2006 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

Declined assignment and is now a free agent. He will probably show up in camp with someone.

Why the hell doesn't the marlins sign him? Strong is everything they need. He's extremely fast and can cover their spacious CF. He has shown strong on base skills, including the ability to draw walks. He is cheap.

Look at his AAA #s. There is no reason to think he couldn't produce a .280/.340/.410 type year to go with 35-45 steals.

by ScottAZ on Feb 27, 2006 9:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

names

they have definitely win the award for the farm system with the msot difficult names to pronounce.

by wright5reyes7 on Feb 26, 2006 2:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You should see the Summer League rosters...

with names like...

Greysom Berroteran
Jetsy Extrano
Gerardo Esparza
Edlando Seco
Diomny Gaetano
Kervin Montbrum
Edzul Robles
Manelik Pimentel
Mcyquin Lora
Natividad Dilone

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett

by JY on Feb 26, 2006 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shawn Nottingham

Is Shawn anywhere near this list? I remember seeing him play for the Aqua Sox a few years back and he was lights out, he had great movement on his pitches, and he's a south paw.

by Mike McBride on Feb 26, 2006 2:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Can't speak for John, but...

Nottingham was a little difficult to get a read on this year. He was solid in Inland when he was an emergency call-up, despite the lack of Ks, but then he came down with a strained flexor bundle and resurfaced at the end for a brief a mediocre tour around the Midwest League, including a stint in front of his hometown crowd.

With only ~50 innings under his belt for the season, it's hard to say much about him other than this year should be better if the elbow doesn't act up on him again. He has good stuff for a lefty, but I've heard he has a few maturity issues indicative of his age and the injury front will be something to keep tabs on.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett

by JY on Feb 26, 2006 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Varvaro

John - You talked about Snelling's grade change if he were healthy, but what about Varvaro? I'm assuming the C grade is precautionary since he's recovering from TJ?

by ConorGlassey on Feb 26, 2006 3:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yes

Yes, that's right.

I really liked him before the TJ.

by John Sickels on Feb 26, 2006 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bazardo

Any more thoughts on him? His scouting report reminds me of Carmona (Great stuff, should K many- not many K's at all)

by CJ on Feb 26, 2006 3:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's "Shin-soo" Choo

But given that people seem to pronounce his name about 50 different ways, I don't think it matters.

by chaney on Feb 26, 2006 5:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

typo

That's a typo.

It matters and I have fixed it.

by John Sickels on Feb 26, 2006 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Whither Marcos Carvajal?

I'm guessing he'd still be a B/B-, but I'm wondering why he was left off the list.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/

by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 26, 2006 5:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

why left off?

perhaps b/c Carvajal pitched 53 Innings in the bigs in 2005.

"I may not be a class act, but I'm an American." Ron Artest on wanting to play for the Olympic team

by natsfan2005 on Feb 26, 2006 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I probably should've known that.

I'd say he still counts as a prospect, though, given that he's going to spend most of the year in Tacoma.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/

by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 26, 2006 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jose Lopez

I know he's no longer a prospect, but I noticed you compared him to Juan Uribe in another thread. That doesn't seem very complimentary for a guy who's hit 32 doubles in his first 397 MLB at bats. He's also done a number on the PCL at the ages of 20-21, while playing in a pitcher's park. He's got very good batspeed, so I wonder if you see his lackluster plate discipline as being a significant problem down the road? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on him.

by chaney on Feb 26, 2006 5:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

not complimentary enough?

juan uribe is a good MLB player. he has an excellent glove and good pop. in the years when his batting average is decent, he's a fringe all-star.

by jpahk on Feb 26, 2006 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jetsy Extrano

I hope he makes the majors just for his name.

by BenB on Feb 26, 2006 7:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement Vs. Salty

Who's going to have the better major league career?

by The Scout on Feb 27, 2006 12:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Off topic (sort of) question for John

Say, one thing I've always wondered about prospect ratings: it is always a blend of potential and current performance. Why not break out the gradings?

So maybe the prospect is an B for getting to the big leagues eventually but a C in terms of potential for, say, an Ellison (obviously I'm a Giants fan; figured too late to post this on Giants thread but applicable to all lists) in 2005, but maybe today Ishikawa gets a C for getting to the majors and an A for potential, whereas you might have Sanders at B for making the majors and A for potential.

Or maybe three grades, making big leagues eventually, making big leagues soon, max potential. Final grade could be a mix of the three, not necessary equal weighting.

Just curious what your thoughts are.

by biasedgiantsfanatic on Feb 27, 2006 1:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

rafael soriano

he's not really a prospect any more, but has anybody heard anything about this guy? he put up some sick numbers out of the bullpen for both tacoma and seattle in 2002-03 but then had TJ surgery in '04 and just barely made it back at the end of last season. is he healthy now? throwing well? will he be in the setup/closer mix? i remember watching him pitch in '03 and thinking that this guy was the right-handed santana.

by jpahk on Feb 27, 2006 9:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs