Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Feb 21, 2006 1:08 PM EST in News Comment 28 comments

Ryan Zimmerman

WASHINGTON NATIONALS TOP 20 PROSPECTS LIST

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Grade A
Kory Casto, 3B, Grade B-
Bill Bray, LHP, B-
Larry Broadway, 1B, C+
Brendan Harris, 2B, C+
Collin Balester, RHP, C+ (raise grade from C in the book)
Mike Hinckley, LHP, C+
Justin Maxwell, OF, C+
Clint Everts, RHP, C+
Daryl Thompson, RHP, C+
Josh Whitesell, 1B, C+
Jason Bergmann, RHP, C+
Frank Diaz, OF, C+
Francisco Plasencia, OF, C+
Ian Desmond, SS, C
Brandon Watson, OF, C
John Michael Howell, OF, C
Marco Estrada, RHP, C
Edgardo Baez, OF, C
Francisco Guzman, OF, C

Very depressing, the polar opposite of the Arizona system.

Zimmerman is a stud, of course, but after him there are no sure bets. Casto can hit but will need to find another position with Zim ahead of him. Bray should be a decent bullpen guy but not an impact player. Larry Broadway is a Jay Gibbons/Brian Daubach type. Harris is ready but needs a place to play, and could be an ideal utility guy in a Tony Graffanino mode. Both Broadway and Harris could be Grade B- guys instead of C+; it's borderline.

I'm raising Collin Balester from Grade C to Grade C+, due to very positive scouting reports as well as positive intuition.

Mike Hinckley has to prove he is healthy. He was one of the top LHP prospects in the game heading into 2005, but his season was disastrous. Clint Everts, on the other hand, could see his grade increase this year now that Tommy John is receeding in the distance.

Scouts praise infielder Ian Desmond for his athleticism and tools, but I want to see some performance out of him.

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Rasner

I believe he was claimed off waivers by the Yankees a couple of weeks ago.

by dkny22 on Feb 21, 2006 1:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

rasner

I checked all Nationals transactions back through December and didn't see that one. Will check again.

by John Sickels on Feb 21, 2006 1:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

rasner

Yes, you're right, he was claimed by the Yankees on February 11. Funny, it doesn't show up on the Nationals transaction list I checked, but it does show up on the Yankees list.

by John Sickels on Feb 21, 2006 1:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's because

Jim Bowden is an idiot who doesn't want his foul-ups highlighted

by NFA Brian on Feb 21, 2006 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Where?

Where was Rasner and what was his grade before you edited the list?

by nms on Feb 21, 2006 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rasner

C+ & Just outside the Top 10

by colinadam on Feb 21, 2006 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bowden

Why does it always seem like Bowden makes bad moves? How can you let a C+ prospect get snagged away when their farm seems so weak? From Christian Guzman to Vinny C to all the tools prospects who never amount to anything, how does this guy keep his job? Must have made a couple smart moves?

by The Colonel on Feb 21, 2006 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bowden

He must have some naked pictures of some baseball big wigs because he should be fired.

As for Rasner they lost him on waivers because he had to be placed on the 40 man roster. They left him off because even though he keeps his ERA steady they didn't like the fact that he didn't have a great number of K's.

Bowden would rather spend a few million on Ramon Ortiz who gives them less production than keep a cheaper, home grown talent. Don't get me wrong, Rasner should never be counted on in game 7 of the world series but he is a good back of the bullpen guy.

Nats loss is hopefully a Yankees gain.

by colinadam on Feb 21, 2006 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

Dee Brown?

He doesn't crack the 20? I know he has good power and I thought I read somewhere he has decent discipline.

by ScottAZ on Feb 21, 2006 2:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re

Just to clarify, I mean Dee Brown the son of the late Jerome Brown and who was drafted out of Florida International University.

Not Dee Brown the failed and hyped Royals prospect circa 1999-2001

by ScottAZ on Feb 21, 2006 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

back with the Royals

the other Dee Brown-the one that was a bust-just re-signed with the Royals to a minor league contract-he didn't even get an invite to big league camp

by gashousegang on Feb 21, 2006 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

Poor Dee, he should be a star right now. After he tore through AA as a 20 year old he had Tony Gwynn with power written all over him. Now all he has in common with Gwynn is being about 6foot and fat.

by ScottAZ on Feb 21, 2006 8:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wrong school

Dee Brown came out of UCF last year along with Howell. I want to say back to back picks for the Nats. I hear he did well too. He's huge, played fullback in college too.

by chanman on Feb 22, 2006 8:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Brown looked good

I actually liked him more than John Michael Howell. Not that I expect a similar career path for any of them, but I liked all 3 of Howell, Brown and Plascencia better than Bay when he played for Vermont.

Plascencia is the best defender of the three, although he will not be a CF long term. He also has the quickest stroke, but the ball doesn't pop off his bat like it does Brown. Brown has the best eye of the three and did not seemed to be bothered by anyone's breaking stuff (admittedly of limited quality in the NYPL).

Howell and Brown had injury problems all year and that has to be a concern going forward. Howell in particular had chronic muscle pull problems. Brown's worst problem was a wrist injury from getting beaned, which does not necessarily carry forward. He did have wrist surgery at the end of the year. Thus being the only Expo not to sign their card on my son's uncut sheet. I did like him coaching first when his wrist was in the cast. He seems to have a good attitude in general.

by cdamon on Feb 22, 2006 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

John-

I have been reading your website for many months and enjoy your work very much. I do not always agree with your findings, but I appreciate the amount of time and effort you put in to them. So, I have registered amd will now contribute to your site. Keep up the good work.

by ryansublime on Feb 21, 2006 2:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

40-Man Roster Addition

For some reason, the Nats added catching prospect Erick San Pedro to their 40-man roster. He was drafted in 2004 and was older than 19 when drafted so according to the rules did not need to be protected until the end of the 2006 season. First, can you think of any reason he would be added to the 40-man? And second, who has the higher upside as a catcher, San Pedro, Salomon Manriquez, Luke Montz, or Brian Peacock?

by NFA Brian on Feb 21, 2006 2:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Montz

is one of my personal favorites as a player.

He has a spectacular eye, the best I have seen go through the Expos/Nats low minors this decade. He also has a cannon on an arm. His upside is probably Doug Mirabelli, with decent power and a low BA. Supposedly, pitchers don't like throwing to him because he does not hold a steady target.

I was unimpressed with Manriquez. The other two either skipped Vermont or made little impression on me.

by cdamon on Feb 21, 2006 11:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ESP

ESP has a good glove but a questionable bat.

None of the other guys are, in my opinion, particularly interesting.

by John Sickels on Feb 21, 2006 2:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ESP

i bet ESP has awesome pitch recognition though

almost like he knows what's coming... before the pitcher throws it

by wily mo on Feb 21, 2006 8:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nowhere to go but up

John, thanks for Nats coverage (as depressing as it may be).

From an organizational perspective, aside from Zimmerman, has Dana Brown left the new owner/GM (please let it be a new GM) anything to work with? Or is this a long road back to respectability?

by NFA Brian on Feb 21, 2006 2:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Question about Zimmerman

Why is it that so many are so skeptical about his power. He's a good size guy. He's got a great swing, and he's still pretty young. If power is often the last tool to develop, it doesn't seem unreasonable for him to eventually hit anywhere from 25-35 homers annually, so long as he consistently put good swings on the ball. Now granted, it'd definitely help for him to get out of RFK.

by RayRay on Feb 21, 2006 2:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

power

well, i'm skeptical about his power because he didn't hit for power in college, with aluminum. so i'd like to see him do more than hit a few doubles in a small sample size before i'll be convinced that he'll hit for power in the big leagues. there are plenty of guys who put a good swing on the ball that don't hit for power. that doesn't mean zimm will be a bad player--as i've said before, i think his downside is joe randa, who's certainly not bad--but i just don't think he'll be a big HR guy.

by jpahk on Feb 21, 2006 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I understand the small sample size

but in 67 total games (including 4 with Savannah), Zimmerman hit more HR (11) than he did in his entire college career (7 in three seasons).

I'm not saying he's destined for 30 HR/season but I can see there exist a possibility for developing HR power

by NFA Brian on Feb 21, 2006 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

UVA park factor

BA has said that UVA's home field is very tough on RH Power.

Boyds World does not break down park factors by batting event (like H,HR,etc..) like BTF does for pro ball... but that site does confirm empirically that UVA is not a hitter friendly environment by assigning a PF of 80. Zimmerman did also lead Team USA in HR.

http://www.boydsworld.com/data/pf2005.html

I don't think he's going to hit 20 homers. But I think that will be more due to RFK than him having a complete absence of HR ability. Afterall I think Jose Guillen hit 21 HRs on the road and like 3 in RFK last year.

"I may not be a class act, but I'm an American." Ron Artest on wanting to play for the Olympic team

by natsfan2005 on Feb 21, 2006 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Everts and Broadway

It is unfortunate that these 2 have not met expectations obviously Everts looks like he could bounce back(i have his autograph from hidden treasures) so i hope so-and he is on ym fantasy roster....Broadway would be a sure disappoitment if he measures to Daubach, i thought he might be a Nick Johnson clone

by gashousegang on Feb 21, 2006 4:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Josh Karp

Is he still in the system? Is there anyone hope?

Nolan

by Nolan on Feb 21, 2006 9:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Justin Maxwell

I'm intrigued about Justin Maxwell as a prospect. Reading him in John's book was the first time I've really heard about him.

C+ is a very aggressive grade for somebody who has been hurt. This must mean he has an impressive tool box. Also, he seems to have the perfect size.

Anyway, I was just wondering if he is expected to be healthy and if healthy, where is his ceiling?

by The Scout on Feb 22, 2006 1:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Maxwell info

The article about Maxwell's signing mention his attributes:

"Maxwell's obvious talents caught the Nationals eye in the prestigious Cape Cod League, where in 2004, he hit .263 with four doubles, one homer and nine stolen bases in 57 at-bats. His performance on the Cape garnered a pair of pre-season All-America selections, and according to Baseball America, Maxwell entered the '05 ACC campaign as the best athlete and the top defensive outfielder in the conference. He also landed spots on BA's pre-season list of top college players, and top prospects from the Cape Cod League."

He also had a 4.0 in High School and supposedly chose Maryland over Harvard for the athletics.

As far as health, he should be healthy, some reports say he may start as high as Harrisburg (AA). His injuries were: 2005 hammate bone, 2004 fractured ulna.

by VladiHondo on Feb 22, 2006 10:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs