Boston Red Sox Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2006 2:54 PM EST in News

Jon Papelbon

BOSTON RED SOX TOP 20 PROSPECTS

Craig Hansen, RHP, Grade A-
Jon Lester, LHP, Grade B+
Jon Papelbon, RHP, B+
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, B+
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, B
Clay Buchholz, RHP, B
Michael Bowden, RHP, B
Manny Delcarmen, RHP, B-
Jed Lowrie, 2B, B-
Brandon Moss, OF, B-
Luis Soto, OF, B-
Edgar Martinez, RHP, C+
Abe Alvarez, LHP, C+
Jeff Corsaletti, OF, C+
Yahmed Yema, OF, C+
Cla Meredith, RHP, C
David Murphy, OF, C
Jermaine Van Buren, RHP, C
Chris Turner, OF, C
Andrew Pinkney, 3B, C

A rapidly improving farm system, with particular strength in pitching. Hansen, Lester, and Papelbon are a nice foundation for a pitching staff, with Delcarmen and Martinez providing additional relief depth. Buchholz and Bowden, 2005 draftees, will need time to develop but I like both of them.

The hitting side is a bit thinner once you get past Dustin Pedroia. 2005 outfield draftees Ellsbury, Corsaletti, and Yema are all guys I like, although the latter two are possible "tweener" types who will have to show enough power at higher levels.

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Comments

How long will it be...

before Ellsbury starts breathing down Coco's neck?

by The Rocc on Feb 19, 2006 2:56 PM EST reply actions

2008.

That's what BA put his ETA at, anyway.

by abbreviatedman on Feb 19, 2006 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

And

Crisp is a FA after '09 I believe.

by abbreviatedman on Feb 19, 2006 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

re:

Still think an A- is a bit high for a reliever with very little minor league experience.

Whatever happened to the knuckleballer, Charlie Zink? Is he pretty much done? I remember a couple of years ago Baseball Prospectus said he was the pitching prospect most likely to have a long major league career.

by Ian Miller on Feb 19, 2006 3:10 PM EST reply actions

Zink

He had a good '03 in Sarasota, but wasn't able to repeat that performance in '04, and now he's 26 and hasn't ever pitched well in AA or above.

by GoldSox on Feb 19, 2006 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

Zink

Zink was watching some footage of one of the Niekro's pitching, and he said he picked up their delivery and it helped him immensely with his knuckler. He said the new grip gave him side to side action with the pitch, complementing the up and down "curvish" action he had before, in addition to improving his control of the pitch.

This was with about a month left in the season, and from that point on he was light's out. Of course it was a very small sample size, but an encouraging one for Zink none the less.

by Jgaztambide on Feb 19, 2006 7:37 PM EST up reply actions

Burning question for John

Where would Anibel, Shoppach, Hanley, and to a lesser extent, Marte have ranked?

Also, do you have any impressions of Rhys Taylor and Yader Peralta (the two young players traded for a lame-duck Mike Stanton last year)?

Thanks.

by limozeen on Feb 19, 2006 3:15 PM EST reply actions

top 10

they'd all be in the top 10 except maybe Shoppach.

I don't know enough off the top of my head about Taylor and Peralta right now to comment. I'd have to research it.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2006 3:16 PM EST up reply actions

Chris Turner...

Great hitter or THE greatest hitter?

by templeUsox on Feb 19, 2006 3:20 PM EST reply actions

Murphy vs. Moss

John, what's the main difference between Murphy and Moss that puts Moss at a B- and Murphy at a C?

I personally am a Moss fan, but I feel that Murphy has closed the gap a bit after finally having a healthy year. Plus Muprhy plays center, or does it appear that he'll be moved off to a corner?

by Forever Red 9 on Feb 19, 2006 3:22 PM EST reply actions

age

Murphy is 2 years older than Moss. Makes a big difference.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2006 3:29 PM EST up reply actions

First Half / Second Half Split

I earlier asked John if he put any stock in Murphy's dramatic turnaround in mid-June and he said no, you have to look at the whole season.

Once upon a time there was a former Sox 1st round pick who was completely written off as a prospect after hitting .244 / .331 / .421 at age 23 in AAA. And, man, that sure is mediocre. Was it relevant that he hit .209 / .310 / .358 in his first 325 or so PA and .295 / .367 / .513 in his last 240? John would say, nope. Well, he hit .310 / .400 / .513 in AAA the next year and he's still playing RF for the Sox.

I would argue that what Murphy did professionally before last June is completely irrelevant to his future as a hitter. Granted, that leaves us with a small sample, but it's a reasonably impressive one that would vault him upwards in the rankings quite a bit.

by Eric Van on Feb 19, 2006 11:57 PM EST up reply actions

Huh.

"Completely irrelevant"?
That's pretty extreme. I would argue his second half (and performance in AFL) is much more relevant than his first-half performance, but the fact that Murphy performed the way he did last Spring is also worth noting. We don't know the degree to which his second-half improvements are sustainable, so his first-half performance is certainly informative for his "floor" projection (just as his second half should figure into his ceiling).

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Feb 20, 2006 12:31 AM EST up reply actions

Sure

Excellent distinction . . . yes, I certainly meant "irrelevant to his upside" (which is, after all, most of what prospect ranking is about). That he has struggled in the post with mechanics indicates that he's somewhat less likely to reach and maintain his upside than a guy who has never struggled.

by Eric Van on Feb 20, 2006 5:11 PM EST up reply actions

What about ??

Randy Beam... I know he is a reliever which takes away some of his prospect value but in AA he put up a 2.35 ERA in 40 appearances.. I think he projects well as a setup man

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 19, 2006 3:34 PM EST reply actions

beam

I considered him for the back end of the top 20 but i think he's in the 21-25 range.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2006 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

Serious question...

John, how in tune are you with the Sox players coming over from Venezuela like Felix Doubront or Carlos Fernandez? Have you heard any reports about who impressed from Sox instructional league last fall?

by templeUsox on Feb 19, 2006 3:36 PM EST reply actions

venezuela

all i've heard is that those guys looked good in camp, which doesn't mean much yet. Let's get some actual in-season data.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2006 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

This is a reach then...

but you haven't heard about any of the Taiwanese signings made by the Sox, have you?

by templeUsox on Feb 19, 2006 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

signings

Right now, nothing more than what is publically available.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2006 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

Nice to see...

... that you like Bucchholz and Bowden. I'm excited about their potential (but trying not to get too excited cuz of that ol' tins tap or whatever).

by abbreviatedman on Feb 19, 2006 3:46 PM EST reply actions

Edgar Martinez

All winter I've been hearing from Peter Gammons how Big Edgar is one of the untouchables, but is he really untouchable? Your ranking seems much more accurate.

50% of the balls put in play last year at Portland were fly balls yet he didn't allow a single extra base hit in 63 at bats. I'm assuming he'll be in Pawtucket to start the year, so what is the likelihood that he gets exposed in AAA?

by Forever Red 9 on Feb 19, 2006 3:49 PM EST reply actions

What does he throw?

All I've heard was that he has great life on his fastball, and that that's all he's been using to get people out. Anyone know what other pitches he has developed / is trying to develop?

by abbreviatedman on Feb 19, 2006 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

He's got...

a plus-plus fastball and two show-me pitches (slider, changeup).

by templeUsox on Feb 19, 2006 3:56 PM EST reply actions

Machado

Is machado eveer going to get a shot to do anything? he doesn't have the power, but makes good contact, has a good k/bb rate and can steal a abg. More of the old-school SS approach, but he had a nice 05 season in AAA

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Feb 19, 2006 5:34 PM EST reply actions

Bucholz and Bowdein

John--

Is it my imagination or is it unusual to see pitchers with such limited track records as Bucholz and Bowdein given B rankings?

It seems that there's just so much that can go wrong for them before they get to the majors.

by darren on Feb 19, 2006 5:55 PM EST reply actions

yes

Yes, it is unusual. But I like these guys on an intuitive level and sometimes that will override my sabermetric judgment/caution.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2006 6:21 PM EST up reply actions

Not sure I understand...

Are you saying that your observation of them and/or what you're hearing from scouts is so awesome that it trumps your sabermetric side? Or is it more of just a gut thing?

Thanks for the info, BTW.

by darren on Feb 19, 2006 7:29 PM EST up reply actions

all three

All three, actually.

Watching them on video.
What scouts say.
Intuition, "gut" feeling.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2006 7:43 PM EST up reply actions

President Van Buren

Just wondering what you don't like about Van Buren. 54IP, 33H, 22BB, 65K, 1.98 ERA, 25 SV. '05 MILB RP of Year.

by The Colonel on Feb 19, 2006 6:39 PM EST reply actions

JVB

I like JVB. But he turns 26 this year, rather old for a prospect.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2006 6:40 PM EST up reply actions

That, and the whole Trail of Tears thing

by limozeen on Feb 19, 2006 6:50 PM EST up reply actions

lol

Thanks for the laugh.

by abbreviatedman on Feb 19, 2006 8:23 PM EST up reply actions

Question about Pedroia

There's a lot of talk lately about Sheffield as one of his PECOTA comps, and whether Pedroia has a chance to become a good power hitter. Do you think his minor leauge power will carry over to the MLB, or will he become a 10-15 HR type?

by limozeen on Feb 19, 2006 7:07 PM EST reply actions

10-15

10-15. I don't buy the Sheffield comp.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2006 7:18 PM EST up reply actions

Why so low?

I don't want to get into a long thing, I am just curious.

As a 21 year old, the guy hit 13 HR in 450 AA/AAA AB with a bad wrist for half of it . It seems like 10-15 HR in 600 ABs is a drop in power, despite him presumably getting healthier and getting stronger as he ages.

I heard one person ascribe the power concerns to bat speed. I appreciated that comment as it gives me is something that I can watch more closely going forward. And based on that, I can understand someone not expecting much more power development. But I still have a hard time projecting a 21 year old with a good eye to lose power as he matures. Is there more going on that indicates a coming decline?

by cdamon @ Minor League Ball on Feb 19, 2006 9:13 PM EST up reply actions

Get a grip

There is something your going to eventually have to come to grips with. Pedroia is playing above his tools right now. That's great. He's a grinder. You can root for him. He could even earn a few all star appearances.

But he's not just going to keep getting better and better. I don't know why you think that. The growth curve of an athletic prospect who matures from 20-27 and keeps getting better isn't going to apply to a kid who gets every ounce of his ability and more at 22. He's practically maxed out already.

Also, I don't think when John says 10-15 he doesn't mean that Pedroia can't have one peak year of 20 homers. It is what he thinks he'll settle into most seasons.

"When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading." - Henny Youngman

by TINSTAAPP on Feb 19, 2006 9:24 PM EST up reply actions

Rudy Rudy Rudy

Bah, anything can happen.

by Josh @ Minor League Ball on Feb 19, 2006 9:39 PM EST up reply actions

Pedroia is a natural

I think the way Pedroia plays so hard, people discredit him of his pure ability. The fact is, he has got incredible bat control and drives the ball to all fields. I don't see him putting up big power numbers, because he does use the whole field and won't power the ball out of the yard that way. He does have a pretty swing though and could very well be a consistent .290 guy with high doubles totals.

by StickRat on Feb 20, 2006 1:40 AM EST up reply actions

Valentin's Day

Sounds like John Valentin! I'd take that. Woot!

by The Colonel on Feb 20, 2006 2:37 AM EST up reply actions

More like ...

Chuck Knoblauch, only Pedroia's defining tool will be his glove, not his speed.

by StickRat on Feb 20, 2006 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

and hes got

a heart full of gold!

by PooNani on Feb 20, 2006 8:27 AM EST up reply actions

Jeff Natale

Have you seen or heard anything about this 32nd rounder from Trinity (CT)? Very nice contact skills but I've heard little about his D.

by darren on Feb 19, 2006 7:24 PM EST reply actions

Rozier

John,

Are you really that low on Rozier after one sub par season.

I would think with his youth and talent he would still be able to make a top 20 over some one like JVB.

by jbg3004 on Feb 19, 2006 8:47 PM EST reply actions

why is there any reason to be high on him

he hasnt done anything since high school

by PooNani on Feb 19, 2006 9:54 PM EST up reply actions

Cla Meredith

I was fortunate to draft him in the 6th or 7th round of our rookie free agent draft(we basically draft only draft eligible players in this part of our draft) in 04. Could you give me info, about him...what i would like to know is that his mental makeup isn't riuned from his unhappy welcome to the show

by gashousegang on Feb 19, 2006 9:19 PM EST reply actions

Lowrie

...has been consistently underrated. He was a better player than Mayberry at Stanford and, I predicit, will be an All-Star caliber player in the bigs. He can flat out hit.

Nolan

by Nolan on Feb 20, 2006 12:28 AM EST reply actions

Question on rankings

I have a problem with Murphy so low, he had a very solid year in AA and some scouts believe he can stick in CF, considering his pedigree and his tools, shouldn't that be at the minimum a C+ maybe even a B-? John I know you've got something of a man crush on Yema but to rank him above Murphy makes no sense.

Also to answer the question about Natale's defense, I've heard its attrocious.

Qesution for John:

What's your impression of manny DelCarmen's chances of being a quality set-up man in the bigs. It seems to me looking at his performance in pressure situations (and his AA numbers in pressure situations) that he fell apart, his FB flattened (gained some MPH, but was very hittable) and his Curve was non-existent and/ or uncontrollable. It seems to me he's got very good stuff, but there are too many areas in need of improvement for him to reach his potential. Is it just me or do you have the feeling he's got a high chance of flaming out in the majors because of these concerns... Thanks!

by jspearlj1 on Feb 20, 2006 10:32 AM EST reply actions

yema etc

Yeah, putting Yema ahead of Murphy might be stupid, I admit that. But there it is.

I like Delcarmen...what do you mean by "performance in pressure situations"? Do you have a stat breakdown of that, or is it an impression?

by John Sickels on Feb 20, 2006 10:41 AM EST up reply actions

Stat breakdown:

From Forever Red 9 of soxprospects.com (I don't know of any sites that have this stuff):

MDC (DelCarmen's overall AA numbers:

146 ABs

3.23 ERA
212 BAA
307 OBPA
301 SLGA
609 OPSA

Men on base

61 ABs

262 BAA
375 OBPA
361 SLGA
736 OPSA

Bases Empty

85 ABs

176 BAA
255 OBPA
259 SLGA
514 OPSA

Small sample size stuff, but when watching him, it seems that when he gets into trouble he dials up his FB and loses control and movement by doing so. Also his Curve doesn't look as sharp when he got into trouble as well.

BTW: I wasn't trying to call you stupid for ranking Yema above Murphy, it just doesn't make any sense. Its just a ranking that seemed made by personal bias (I remember you calling Yema a favorite sleeper of yours in the 2005 draft), if that's the case that's fine, its your opinion. The other thing i was wondering is what is your impression on Murphy's defense in CF, most scouts still seem skeptical, but some have come around and said that he can stick there, which seems like its a big deciding factor on his prospects status.

by jspearlj1 on Feb 20, 2006 11:19 AM EST up reply actions

Lester and the "injury nexus"

You mentioned in your book that Lester has yet to make it through the "injury nexus" and that that was part of what made you hesitate in giving him an A-. Is this a phase all young hard-throwing pitchers must pass through or something specific to Lester? At what point/age will he have passed it?
Also, to what extent do you feel that allowing young pitchers like Papelbon, Lester, and even Beckett access to vets like Schilling or Clemens improves their games?

by ortiz the cookie monster on Feb 20, 2006 10:50 AM EST reply actions

I've mentioned on other diaries ...

that a guy pointed out to me in a Strat league I belonged to around 1984 that just about every pitcher who had pitched full-time in a MLB rotation at 22 or younger eventually blew out. The names were different back then, Wayne Simpson, Don Gullett, Gary Nolan -- names that won't mean a lot to quite a few folks here.

And it's possible that advances in surgery have turned some of what used to be career-ending injuries into season-ending injuries instead. But to this day I still shy away from pitchers who are starting full time in the majors before age 23.

Felix fits in that category, not sure who else does right now. But all those people who categorize pitchers the way they do hitters (and there are many of them on this site), who say the younger the athlete, the better -- I don't buy that in this particular situation.

by Flynn Blake on Feb 21, 2006 3:25 AM EST up reply actions

22 or younger

And by the way, I forgot to mention it, but my acquaintance attributed these injury problems to physical maturity -- that the human body was still developing and not ready to fully handle the strain of pitching 180 or more MLB innings at such a young age. Obviously that level of maturity and complete growth will differ for different people, but 23 seems like a safe age for most grown men to begin full-time starting.

Sorry to not have included it before.

by Flynn Blake on Feb 21, 2006 3:27 AM EST up reply actions

anyone with any insider info/opinion on Jon Egan?

....I thought he might be in the late teens...he's tall enough that he should generate some power and he plays a premo position...and the Sox system isn't that deep...

by daveh33 on Feb 21, 2006 2:58 PM EST reply actions

Egan

Not really "insider" information but over the past six months we have learned:
-his glove was better than anticipated
-his bat was worse than anticipated
-18 year olds can do some pretty dumb things.. like getting pulled over and getting caught with drugs in the glove compartment.

I don't have a problem with Jon excluding him from the top 20, but Egan is a guy worth paying attention to over the next year or two.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Feb 22, 2006 12:50 AM EST up reply actions

thanks...was not aware of his brush with the law..

....he's got a large frame...that can't account for avg of course, but as long as he can play solid D and swing a big bat, that's gotta be worth something...

by daveh33 on Feb 22, 2006 4:11 PM EST up reply actions