Oakland Athletics Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Feb 17, 2006 2:30 PM EST in News

Daric Barton

OAKLAND ATHLETICS TOP 20 PROSPECTS

Daric Barton, 1B, Grade A-
Kevin Melillo, 2B, Grade B+
Javier Herrera, OF, Grade B
Cliff Pennington, SS, B
Travis Buck, OF, B
Danny Putnam, OF, B
Santiago Casilla (Jairo Garcia), RHP, Grade B (changed from B+ book grade due to Age-Gate)
Craig Italiano, RHP, B
Shane Komine, RHP, B-
Jimmy Shull, RHP, B-
Jared Lansford, RHP, B-
Kurt Suzuki, C, C+
Vincent Mazzaro, RHP, C+
Richie Robnett, OF, C+
Dan Meyer, LHP, C+
Jared Burton, RHP, C+
Jason Ray, RHP, C+
Ramon Alvarado, OF, C+
John Rheinecker, LHP, C
Justin Sellers, SS, C

There is a lot of uncertainty in that C+ group, a mixture of 2005 disappointments (Meyer, Robnett) and guys with long-term potential but unproven track records.

I like both Buck and Putnam, but both have some risk of "tweenerdom" when it comes to power development.

I thought about raising Pennington's grade to B+. . .Baseball America ranks him ahead of Melillo due to questions about Melillo's glovework. But for now I will leave it the way it is. The question is not whether Melillo should be a grade B, but whether Pennington should be a B+. He doesn't have Melillo's power, but has better speed and better defensive value.
UPDATE: The general consensus is that Jared Burton is overrated on this list. Looking at it, I likely did not account sufficiently for age-relative-to-league factors. Grade C and a lower ranking would be appropriate.

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Comments

Meyer

I understand that Meyer has lost a lot of his prospect shine due to injury and a susbsequent decline in performance/mechanics, but I still see his ceiling--and his chance of at least contributing in the majors--to be significantly higher than a guy like Burton (who will be 25 this year and has yet to play in AA).

by AthertonA on Feb 17, 2006 2:41 PM EST reply actions

Have we heard anything about Meyer?

It's fair to say that his struggles last year were entirely due to a less than 100% arm, right? has he regained arm strength?

"I wish I knew how to quit you James Loney."

by jamesloney4life on Feb 17, 2006 2:45 PM EST reply actions

more precisely

a less than 100% shoulder

"I wish I knew how to quit you James Loney."

by jamesloney4life on Feb 17, 2006 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

As expected

You like the system much more than BA.

Braden is not even on the list? Considering how their is barely any info on Ramon Alvarado, who dominated rookie league but ist 21 years old, i would have thought you would not even have him on the list.

The inclusion of Jared Burton is somewhat surprising. He dominated high A, but is 24 years old. My guess is that his sudden improvement was in become a closer (permanent reliever) rather than a swingman type. All his peripherals shot up significantly. I honestly don't know what kind of stuff he has though. Can you enlighten?

Also would have though Gregorio Petit makes it over someone like Alvarado. He's younger, 2 levels higher, has GG potential on defense... And had a good year with the stick. I thought he would be a C+ or something...

Another omission (IMO): Jason Windsor. Though you can't fit everyone.

One question: Do you know anything about Anthony Recker?

Overall, it's pretty much what i thought. A few high upside guys, with mostly "solid" prospect depth all the way down.

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by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 17, 2006 2:58 PM EST reply actions

Also

http://minorleagueball.com/story/2006/2/1/141640/2239

I wrote about the A's top 20 prospects a few weeks ago, with comments. I'll post just the list with my projected (at the time) grades as well.

I should have replaced Recker/Webb with Sellers/Shull though.

1)Daric Barton: A-
2)Javier Herrera: B+
3)Cliff Pennington: B
4)Travis Buck: B
5)Kevin Melillo: B
6)Craig Italiano: B
7)Dan Meyer: B
8)Santiao Casilla: B
9)Vincent Mazzaro: B-
10)Shane Komine: B-
11)Jared Lansford: B-
12)Dallas Braden: B-
13)Danny Putnam: B-
14)Richie Robnett: B-
15)Jason Windsor: C+
16)Jason Ray: C+
17)Kurt Suzuki: C+
18)Ryan Webb: C+
19)Gregorio Petit: C+
20)Anthony Recker: C

I should have taken Recker and Webb off, their numbers simply weren't good enough. I also noted Alvarado, though since i have basically no info on him didn't include him. Should have left in Sellers and Shull.

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by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 17, 2006 3:05 PM EST reply actions

stavisky

ohad, what kind of grade would you give to Brian Stavisky?

Policeman: Sir, are you classified as human? Korben Dallas: Ah, negative. I am a meat popsicle.

by finman on Feb 17, 2006 3:09 PM EST up reply actions

C

He put up great numbers in AA, but as a 25 year old. He doesn't have power to be a corner outfielder, and isn't good enough in CF. Tweener. Has a very smooth lefty stroke though, and could be a 4th outfielder in the majors. Great average hitter.

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by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 17, 2006 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

I'm sure he is in the next 10

John must feel he belongs in the 20s with guys like Braden, Knox, Windsor, Madsen, Webb, Petit, Powell, Snyder, and Colamarino.

I personally like Braden, Knox, Windsor, and Powell better than guys like Ray, Sellers, and Burton.

by LizardKing51 @ Minor League Ball on Feb 17, 2006 5:17 PM EST up reply actions

Can't beat the cocks...

Where does a healthy Landon Powell fall into that list? C+ with Suzuki, B- ?

by cooper7d7 on Feb 17, 2006 3:30 PM EST reply actions

Herrera Vs. Gonzales

Who is going to be the better player, Javier Herrera or Carlos Gonzales (I'm not sure if it's spelled with an "S" or a "Z"?)

I've seen it spelled both ways.

by The Scout on Feb 17, 2006 3:32 PM EST reply actions

My take

I think it's pretty close, but Gonzales is probably a touch better right now. The #'s, both in the Midwest League in 2005:

Gonzales (age 19): 307/371/489 18 HR/7 SB 48/86/515 BB/K/AB

Herrera (age 20): 275/374/444 13 HR/26 SB 47/110/360 BB/K/AB

It's really close. Herrera has the rep for being a good defensive CF, while Gonzales is also considered a good OF, albeit as a corner. Herrera is clearly faster and takes more walks, but Gonzales is a little better pure hitter with better contact skills and had a slight isoP advantage. I'd take Gonzales because he is a year younger at the same level, but it is close.

by jc3 on Feb 17, 2006 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

Herrera

Looks like as he fills out more and becomes stronger, he will be moved to RF as well. His arm is very very good. Herrera is 1 year older, but he has 30/30 potential where as Gonzalez is more of a power/average hitter. It's very close. It pretty much depends on who you're asking. Could go either way, but i might go with Gonzales because he's younge.r

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by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 17, 2006 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

I doubt that

Herrera will have 30/30 stats in the big leagues, if for no other reason than Oakland wouldn't let him steal 30 times and wouldn't trade him if they thought he had a legit chance at 30 homers (what with the need to grow power inhouse due to its rising cost)

by mroak89 on Feb 20, 2006 10:21 PM EST up reply actions

thunderdome!

my one and only diary might be relevant to this.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/1/18/212358/204

by wily mo on Feb 17, 2006 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

gonzalez

I would go with Gonzalez.

Herrera's a fine prospect but Gonzalez is younger and, unlike Herrera, he doesn't strike out in a quarter of his plate appearances. I worry about about Herrera's ability to get the ball in play and utilize his speed against more advanced pitching.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Feb 17, 2006 4:40 PM EST up reply actions

This is off-topic but the Braves thread is buried

Hi John...why wasn't Blaine Boyer (ATL) in the book? He pitched 38+ innings last year in his major league debut?

Thanks a lot!

by BaseballBrain on Feb 17, 2006 3:33 PM EST reply actions

Dan Meyer

Meyer really needs to come through in 2006, if only so Billy Beane doesn't lose his "genius" label over the Hudson deal. Charles Thomas and Juan Cruz were complete washouts as well.

by Ryan Heimberger @ Minor League Ball on Feb 17, 2006 3:59 PM EST reply actions

augh

that trade has turned out pretty sour, hasn't it? still, the mulder trade was so sweet that i can't even really complain. even if you think about it as hudson & mulder for barton, haren and calero, it's actually a pretty fair trade (mostly due to haren turning into an above-average innings eater right off the bat)... it's just weird to think that the three useful pieces were all part of the mulder trade, and nothing has come of the hudson trade. meyer still has a chance, but injured and sucky for a whole year is quite the double-whammy.

by jpahk on Feb 18, 2006 1:05 AM EST up reply actions

Injuries

What kind of grade do you give Powell and Snyder if they return healthy like they are supposed to this year? If they immediately continue to hit like they did before the injuries (ACL, ribcage) do you quickly upgrade their prospect status? Neither has hit at higher levels yet, but they have yet to struggle either. Its easy to forget about a player when he misses an entire season, but both of those two still have legit chances to make it to the bigs.

In general, which do you grade higher with similar talent: a player coming off an extended injury, who has yet to play since the injury but has a clean bill of health, or a player who has been producing well recently, but has a very injury prone past?

by LizardKing51 @ Minor League Ball on Feb 17, 2006 4:51 PM EST reply actions

Robertson???

Conor Robertson does nothing but put up some sweet numbers at every stop. What keeps him off of all the top prospects lists?

by VegasSteve on Feb 17, 2006 5:05 PM EST reply actions

Yeah

I'd much rather see him on the list than Burton.

by LizardKing51 @ Minor League Ball on Feb 17, 2006 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

Robertson

He was generally older than his competition, doesn't have great control, and is a relief pitcher in the low minors. Those are three reasons to be skeptical regarding his future.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Feb 17, 2006 5:35 PM EST up reply actions

FI have you ever said one good thing about the A's

You are on every A's thread, and never have a single good word to say about them. HATER!

I don't agree with your analysis.

He was drafted in 2004 and played rookie and short season A ball that half year. In 2005, he started in low A and finished in AAA. I'd say his primary competition is the other relievers drafted in 2004, and he will start next year in AAA, well above the curve of where other 2004 relievers are at. It seems pretty successful for a 31st round pick to make it to AAA in around 100 total career innings.

by LizardKing51 @ Minor League Ball on Feb 17, 2006 6:05 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think so.

Well, here's something: I'm really impressed with the way the A's have improved their fielding. The teams Beane would put together drove me crazy 5+ years ago because they seemed to totally neglect areas that were difficult to quantify (ie, fielding). That is no longer true in their farm system and at the major league level.

Oh, and I really like Cliff Pennington. I don't expect him to be a superstar or anything, but I think he'll be an above-average shortstop in just a few years - I expect Crosby to get traded for a good young pitcher sometime around 2008/2009.

I was just pointing out reasons why Robertson might not get as much attention as you anticipate. He may have "finished in AAA", but that was only five innings. He spent the majority of his season walking one batter every other inning in A-ball. He could be good but he has a lot left to prove, in my opinion.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Feb 17, 2006 7:59 PM EST up reply actions

Thank you

Your compliments make me feel better now.

I think you are right on about Pennington, though it is awfully early to predict 2008 trades.

by LizardKing51 @ Minor League Ball on Feb 17, 2006 8:17 PM EST up reply actions

Ziegler

John, great site. Was wondering what you thought of Brad Ziegler, AA Midland. He had one bad outing in AA skewing his stats. Good BB/K ratio, Moneyball pitcher, coming off injury. Thanks!

by The Colonel on Feb 17, 2006 6:33 PM EST reply actions

Barton

I have him in a keeper league and his value is decent right now. Bottom line- do you think he is only a great OBP machine and ends up being a Casey type or do you think he can ramp up the power. If he ends up batting .300ish with 19 HR's as a 1B guy, Im not loving it. what do you guys think? Think AL only roto value- lets say he gets a cup of coffee in '06, 550 AB in '07...But I really want the projection for '08 and thereafter-

.300 75 20 80 0 type seasons makes him a middle tier 1B. Not sexy at all. Im not sold on him and I think he is a guy to trade- talk to me, people.

by creepers on Feb 17, 2006 8:36 PM EST reply actions

Mambo Italiano

Hi Everybody!

Does Craig T. Italian(aka C. Thomas Italiano) have the stuff to be a starter or do you think that he'll eventually move to the bullpen?

by The Rocc on Feb 17, 2006 10:17 PM EST reply actions

He has the stuff,

but a potentially troubling arm motion(i.e. possible injury concern). If that doesn't become a major issue, he's a starter. If not, there are already, albeit EXTREMELY premature, Brad Lidge comps based on his slider/fastball combo. I'd say it's 50/50 right now, but I'm guessing he's a reliever and in the A's pen by the end of 2008.

by gatling on Feb 18, 2006 12:01 AM EST up reply actions

A few questions John

Was Dan Meyer grade of A- last year too high, or do you really feel his injury in 2005 knocks him down to a C+? Dropping more than a full letter grade seems awfully steep to me, so I have to wonder if he was rated too highly last year.

Why the full letter drop for Richie Robnett? Is it strictly on his poor strike zone judgement? You commented last year how you felt more sure about Robnett than Hererra, yet the grades don't reflect that now. I'm curious as to what you see for both players now.

Do you feel that Jason Windsor's struggle at AA is a bad sign for him, or do you expect him to rebound next year?

If Brian Snyder and Landon Powell comeback healthy next year, is it likely they climb back to the B range, or are they more likely AAAA guys?

by gatling on Feb 18, 2006 12:24 AM EST reply actions

wow

i've sort of been waiting for this all winter, and there are some surprises. melillo at #2 is pretty remarkable, considering he pretty much came out of the woodwork. i think i'd have him at a B, not B+. further down the list, i'll echo those who questioned the omissions of braden, windsor and knox. i'm reasonably sure that at least two of those three will have careers, and that's something that can't be said for most prospects who aren't even in the top 20 of their own systems.

i'd also move rheinecker up. he's pretty much major-league ready (not that there's an opening in this organization) and had been consistently decent prior to pitching great and then getting hurt in '05. the finger injury is an issue, but it's not a long-term crippler like an elbow or shoulder, at least in my mind.

by jpahk on Feb 18, 2006 1:01 AM EST reply actions

Rhino

Injury: I read somewhere it's still bothering him and he still can't throw much, the A's are just hoping more rest will heal it.

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 18, 2006 6:13 AM EST up reply actions

comments

Answering various questions:

Meyer's drop is due to his injury problem. Shoulder stuff, especially vaguely-described shoulder stuff, scares me, and the decline in his performance was across the board and distinct.

Braden relies on a trick pitch and the slippage in his numbers in Double-A makes him a Grade C in my mind.

Rheinecker should be/could be a C+ if healthy.

Windsor's K/IP rate collapsed at Midland.

by John Sickels on Feb 18, 2006 10:47 AM EST reply actions

re

Windsor's K/IP collapsed in Midland because he was dealing with forearm pain.

Braden was a year removed from NCAA and was struggling with fatigue and he still pitched decent in AA.

Burton was drafted in 2002...Out of college no less, and was still in High A. I wouldn't consider him a top 50 prospect in the system, let alone in the teens, ahead of Jason Ray, Dallas Braden etc

http://www.as-future.blogspot.com/

by blee1134 on Feb 18, 2006 1:45 PM EST reply actions

burton

You are probably right about Burton, I probably overrated him.

But Windsor and Braden having arm tiredness and shaky performance isn't exactly something in their favor.

by John Sickels on Feb 18, 2006 1:53 PM EST up reply actions

Update

About the update: If he becomes a grade C, who moves onto the list now? Gregorio Petit? Dallas Braden? Jason Windsor? Landon Powell?

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by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 18, 2006 3:02 PM EST reply actions

powell

Powell, perhaps, given good health reports.

by John Sickels on Feb 18, 2006 3:07 PM EST reply actions

i'd have to agree

Thanks for answering.

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 18, 2006 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

Komine rising

Was tempted to title this comment "Mr. Komine Rising" but couldn't think of a legitimate reason to compare him to Jim Morrison. Anyhow, it's good to see Shane Komine climbing back to prospect status. BA even rated his curveball the best in Oakland's minor-league system, which surprised me. How do you all think Komine's height -- at 5'8" -- is going to factor into his future?

by StickRat on Feb 18, 2006 6:06 PM EST reply actions

Komine is an undersog type u can root for...

kind of SImilar to Hudson...peopeldoubt him because his height, but he has a plus curveball, plus fastball (low 90's, touches mid 90's), and a solid changeup...though due to his injury issues and durability not sure if he's better suited for the BP. but he'll definitely help the A's in a yr or two.

by rayver723 on Feb 18, 2006 7:02 PM EST reply actions