Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Feb 11, 2006 1:42 PM EST in News Comment 28 comments

Ricky Romero

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Ricky Romero, LHP, Grade B+
David Purcey, LHP, Grade B+
Dustin McGowan, RHP, Grade B
Josh Banks, RHP, B
Casey Janssen, RHP, B
Curtis Thigpen, C, B-
Adam Lind, OF, B-
Ryan Patterson, OF, B-
Francisco Rosario, RHP, C+
Brandon League, RHP, C+
Shawn Marcum, RHP, C+
Chip Cannon, 1B, C+
Vince Perkins, RHP, C+
Robert Ray, RHP, C+
Paul Phillips, RHP, C+
Chi Hung Cheng, LHP, C+
Jesse Litsch, LHP, C+
Guillermo Quiroz, C, C
John-Ford Griffin, OF, C
Davis Romero, LHP, C

I expect the ranking of Romero and Purcey ahead of McGowan will be very controversial. When I wrote the book, my thinking was that McGowan had the highest physical ceiling of the three, no question, and I was VERY high on him before he got hurt. He appears healthy now, but I'm uncertain about his command, which was a major problem for him at times last season and will hamper him unless it improves.

Because of the command issue, I lowered his grade from B+ in the early draft of the book to a straight B before we went to press. But that might not be right. . .what do you guys think? Should McGowan rate Grade B+, and if so would you rank him ahead of Romero and Purcey?

I'm pretty confident in the other grades.

More of my thoughts on the Blue Jays system can be found here at BattersBox.

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Comments

McGowan

John,

As a Jays fan, I'm quite excited about the grades for Purcey, Romero, and Banks.
I definitely thought that McGowan would also be at a B+. I saw him pitch on TV quite a bit last year and he definitely has at least A- stuff. I guess time will tell about his command issues.

by GregJP on Feb 11, 2006 1:48 PM EST reply actions

i'm curious about brandon league

a year ago nobody could stop talking about him. what happened? glad i sold when the price was high.

AIM-polyphill

by huckleberry on Feb 11, 2006 1:52 PM EST reply actions

Brandon League

He basically had problems with his mechanics all year. He was throwing all his pitches all over the plate last year.
The Jays tried to change his arm slot, to throw over the top more. It didn't work.
So they went back to his original 3/4 arm angle slot. That really didn't do much either.
Just a lost year.

by vsaint on Feb 11, 2006 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

Purcey

What is there to know about Purcey? He has to sharpen his command according to his stats, but is his ceiling a mediocre number one or a solid number 2?

www.faketeams.com SportsBlogs' own all-sport fantasy blog. Check it out.

by ohad on Feb 11, 2006 1:53 PM EST reply actions

Control

I would think if there was concern about control it would be with Purcey and not McGowan. The only time McGowan was over 4 was just prior to blowing out his elbow. With the Jays this year McGowan's walks were more concentrated in his early starts (and when he came out of the pen he was great) and even then he just walked 3.4/9.

Purcey, including college, has always walked 4-5 per 9.

by Pistol on Feb 11, 2006 2:24 PM EST reply actions

point

this is a good point, a very good point.

by John Sickels on Feb 11, 2006 2:25 PM EST up reply actions

Just to further this a bit

Dustin's numbers over the last month out of the pen:
11 ip, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 ER, 11 K

He also hit 100 mph in his last game out of the bullpen. Was around 92-96 when he started, and his secondaries - curve, slider and change looked very good.

by mcpherv on Feb 11, 2006 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

I dunno

I am torn between B+ and B, I think almost every pitcher coming off surgery has command issues, but I was very impressed by Dustin at the end of the year how quick he came back.

I think you go B just cause the other guys so far are healthy but I would be surprised at all if Dustin pitches better than the rest

by goalieguy on Feb 11, 2006 2:27 PM EST reply actions

Where would Sergio Santos rank?

...This is not a very good system, so I imagine he has to be somewhere between 5-7?

by daveh33 on Feb 11, 2006 3:19 PM EST reply actions

i'd also be interested

in where santos would rank in this system.

by overlord on Feb 13, 2006 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

John or any Jays fan...

...have any insight/opinion?...despite his recent struggles, he has to be up there for the Jays because he's a big body with a potential power bat...

by daveh33 on Feb 13, 2006 3:29 PM EST up reply actions

santos

I'm close to giving up on him. I don't think his bat is going to develop much beyond where it currently is.

by John Sickels on Feb 13, 2006 3:33 PM EST up reply actions

Purcey

sorry i cant buy into the purcey hype. his control is absolutely horrible. it would be one thing if he was drafted as a prep prospect, but he from a 4 yr college and last year he was 23 yrs old and still walking over 5 per 9.

of course, there are lefties with purcey's stuff that get it together later on in their career, but its not a bet im willing to make.

by npurcell on Feb 11, 2006 5:02 PM EST reply actions

Adam Lind

John - what sort of career do you see Adam Lind having. When do you think he might make his debut and do you think like I do that he may end up in another system?

by scrllb on Feb 11, 2006 8:19 PM EST reply actions

I don't see...

why the ranking of Romero should be so controversial. He was the best starting pitcher coming out of college last year in my book. He is the next David Wells.

by templeUsox on Feb 11, 2006 9:44 PM EST reply actions

Yea...

I'm still wondering why everyone is so in love with Purcey. Yes, he's got nasty stuff and he's left handed, but the guy has had MAJOR control problems since high school.

He's about to be what...24-25? It's not like he's got all the time in the world anymore.

by SenorGato88 on Feb 11, 2006 9:47 PM EST reply actions

seems question w/ mcgowan and league..

as to where they are vis-a-vis established major leagurs is where they are not so much in the command department (k/w) but also to do and even mostly to do with the control department.

minor laague pitchers can sport a nice strikout/walk ratio.. ala mcgowan/jackson (tampa bay), and are acknowledged to have good, great stuff but get absolutely mortalized by mlb hitters.

why is that..

well, there have been pitchers who made careers with really bad stuff, but it seems they have one thing the upstuds don't have.

control.

the ability to spot at least one pitch in their repoitore no matter what the count not just for strikes but for effect... like right off the low, outside corner of 3-2 counts etc...

reuter, for instance, made a living spotting a mediocre change and even worse fast ball on the outside corner..

real effective.

it seems the upstuds need to get this ability, ie, super control, of at least one pitch in their repotoir to get mlb hitters consistently out.

the upstuds that enjoy immediate transistional success into the majors, for instance, Duke, seem to be the ones who minor league success was based on just this type of advanced ability.

by dryice on Feb 12, 2006 12:55 AM EST reply actions

McGowan - command

If you look at McGowans numbers in the minors his BB/9 has improved every year until hurt.

2000 9
2001 3.58
2002 2.57
2003 2.23

and in 2004 it was very good until his last 3 or 4 starts where he was hurt.

by pedrophile on Feb 12, 2006 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

yes, indeed...

as i stated, mcgowen is a pitcher with both good stuff and good command...

since those attributes tend to belong to successful pitchers...just trying offer a thought as to why such a pitcher might hit some rough spots upon mlb debut

by dryice on Feb 12, 2006 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

His catcher

I watched several of McGowan's starts with some interest (videotaped, watched most of his pitches slow-mo etc.) Zaun set up in the identical spot every pitch and just wanted hard stuff. I figured that MLB hitters and coaches might not be as smart as me but they would prbably figure it out in time. They did.

Yoda

by Yoda on Feb 13, 2006 1:28 PM EST up reply actions

McGowan

I didn't notice about Zaun, but good point.

McGowan was just off TJ and it is very common to have control problems. It is usually 2 years before the control is back - about June of this year.

I think the Jays have 2 routes to go with him.

put him in the pen all year.
have him start in AA and then call up when needed.

Since their pen is not that strong I would think having him in the pen for the full season would be best.

by pedrophile on Feb 13, 2006 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

Kyle Yates

John,

where do you see Kyle Yates falling in the Jays scheme of things. He put up some pretty good numbers last year. Sure his stuff isnt as good as others, but he has shown results.

Thanks

by Alsigko on Feb 12, 2006 9:42 AM EST reply actions

Ryan Klosterman

Hi John.

just wondering about your outlook on Ryan Klosterman. I see you had originally had him as a C+ in your book, but he went to print as a C and fell out of your top 20. With the dearth of middle infielders in the system before Santos' arrival, just wondering how quickly you think he'll move up...which is a question you frame in your writeup.

thanks

ok! ok! Blue Jays! Blue Jays! Lets! Play! Ball!

by BJ Birdie on Feb 12, 2006 3:06 PM EST reply actions

Jays took a serious step backward last year...

...last year this time they had a solid all around system and what they lacked in top shelf talent, they made up for in pretty good depth...this list looks lightyears away from that...what happened to the Jays farm?...

by basemonkey on Feb 12, 2006 7:10 PM EST reply actions

What happened?

From last year there were a number of things that made the system weaker: League and Quiroz took a step backwards, Z Jackson & Gross were traded to Milwaukee in the Overbay trade, and Chacin, Hill and Adams are in Toronto.

by Pistol on Feb 12, 2006 11:00 PM EST reply actions

I guess graduating prospects will...

...always take the farm back a step, but, that's what it's all about...let's not forget that...that being said, farms like the Braves, Brewers, and Angels always seem to graduate prospects without taking hits to their farm dramatically...you have to credit organizations like that who can develop major leaguers w/o giving up too much on the farm...

by basemonkey on Feb 13, 2006 12:48 AM EST reply actions

Quiroz

Does dropping Quiroz to #18 indicate that you think he's still got a shot at doing something for the Jays, or do you feel that with Molina on board Quiroz now has to go to another organization to make his mark (assuming he'll make one, that is)?

by dwill66 on Feb 13, 2006 1:12 PM EST reply actions