Your top 20 prospect list for any team
Just wondering... what are your takes on each team as far as the top 20 prospects for each farm system?
It could be for any team and reasons would be nice too to back it up...
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Smokey Joe's Red Sox top 20
Here we go:
- Jon Lester - lefty, mid 90's fastball (2 and 4 seam), plus change, plus curve. Seems to have the tools of a front line starter.
- Jon Papelbon - looks like a baby Clemens on the mound: similar body and mechanics. Unfortunately he doesn't have the Rocket's wicked split/forkball, but I believe Schilling is teaching him one. Sort of old for a prospect, but I'm excited to see him in the rotation, possibly next year.
- Dustin Pedrioa - great plate discipline, line drive hitter, can play SS and 2B. Small size gets him the obligatory comps to Eckstein, personally I think he can surpass him.
- Craig Hansen - Nasty fastball and slider. Projects as a closer, personally I would like to see his starting in Pawtucket for a year. Talent like this is better served throwing 200 innings per season, not 70.
- Jacoby Ellsbury - Maybe a bit high, but I like him. Gets comps to Damon, better defensively. Still needs to develop power, hasn't played above short season A ball, so the jury is still out. Fenway in '08?
- Manny Delcarmen RP
- Clay Buckholz SP
- David Murphy CF
- Michael Bowden SP
- Jed Lowrie IF
- Edgar Martinez RP
- Luis Soto OF/SS?
- Brandon Moss OF
- Abe Alvarez SP (future lefty specialist, IMO)
- Mike Rozier SP
- Andrew Pinckney 3B
- Cla Meredith RP
- Jeff Corsaletti OF
- David Pauley SP
- Chris Durbin OF
by SmokeyJoeWood on Feb 1, 2006 4:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ellsbury way too high
I would bump up Soto and Alvarez a few spots each.
Alvarez could become one of those crafty lefties. Needs to learn to stay away from the HR.
Soto was the opposite of Ellsbury. He looked much better than his numbers in the NYPL. And he was only 19. I think he is permanently moved to the OF though.
And I of course think Pedroia should be #1 ...
by cdamon on Feb 1, 2006 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Must have been
He finished with an 850 OPS. 24 walks to 20 K's. 317/418/432. 23/26 in stolen bases in 139 at bats.
I think his potential is higher than dave roberts. Better plate discipline.
by ohad on Feb 1, 2006 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
definitely had good plate control
I am just not sure how well he can put good wood on the ball. I am curious about how many of his hits were bunts. He is so fast that very few NYPL 3B have a prayer of throwing him out. I think he hit close to 400 in the games I saw, with only one solidly hit ball in 12+- ABs, which was a lineout to CF. As he faces better fielding as he moves up the rungs, I think he will not find it harder to beat out those bunts. With his speed, the walks are very valuable, but he needs to be able to hit the ball more consistently.
To be fair, he had been hurt right before I saw him. He missed the first visit to Vermont altogether. He also may be having problems with the wood bat. He justnever seemed to be able to get good wood on the ball. Did he play Cape Cod or any of the other wood bat amateur leagues?
Overall, he was the most disappointing player out of the legitimate prospects I have seen come through Vermont for either team.
Well Clint Everts this year gave him a good run for the money.
by cdamon on Feb 1, 2006 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cape Cod League
by SmokeyJoeWood on Feb 1, 2006 7:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ramblings
It's "Buchholz", though I have no idea how to pronounce that.
Also, the list is thinner, but it's still pretty good. According to Jim Callis, we were ranked 5th before the Beckett Trade and 7th after obtaining Marte. Removing him and Shoppach hurts, but I bet we're still, say, 11th. As long as the Y*nkees stay in the bottom half, I'll be happy. Good luck with J. Brent Cox, your 2nd round middle reliever!
The real hurt rankings-wise will come when we lose Papelbon, Hansen, and quite possibly Pedroia and Lester to the big league club. Then again, the Sox have excellent low-level prospects now who should move up, and seven picks in the first three rounds come June.
In conclusion, I'll shut up now.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 1, 2006 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Draft
by SmokeyJoeWood on Feb 2, 2006 8:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Royals top 20
1. Billy Butler
It's been a long time since the Royals have had an prospect with this kind of offensive pedigree. The 1000+OPS at High Desert was impressive--even with the ballpark considerations. The 880 OPS at Wichita showed that he could make the sometimes tricky jump from A to AA. The defensive questions are there--can he be a not-terrible fielder? (the one positive is that he's a got a great arm) His walk rate dropped some last year (but was still acceptable). There have been whispers about his attitude--but that sounds more like a guy who is confident and backs it up by mashing the ball. He is, from what we hear, a hard worker. The list of players who have put up those kind of numbers at that level at his age is pretty short, I'm guessing. I think he's the best hitter in the minors. This guy's offensive ceiling is scary. His number compare favorably to Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, and Albert Pujols. The difference being those guys elevated their play as they were promoted. Can Mr. Butler do the same?
Grade: A
2. Alex Gordon
A lot of people think Gordon should be at the top of this list. I'd like to see him put up some numbers first (the AFL stint was rather brief). As much as I hope Mark Teahen develops into a solid 3rd baseman, Gordon must be left at third this year. His value drops if he goes to the outfield and he is supposed to be a find defender at the hot corner. But it will be Gordon's bat that will be his calling card. Quick hands, a good eye, developed power--he is supposed to be the whole package. His ceiling could be Scott Rolen or Mark Texeira. A fine player who should start at AA. Grade: A-
3. Justin Huber
Huber was discussed in the "Trade Matt Stairs" thread. Justin had a really bad 78 AB's (similar to Donnie Murphy). This came on the heals of 450 outstanding AB's in Wichita and Omaha. Huber led the Texas league in BA/OBP/SLG. He is still learning first base. So far his career path looks eerily like Mike Sweeney`s.
Grade: B+
4. J. P. Howell
I got to looking at his stats, and I don't think he is a rookie anymore. Well, I'm not going to change all my rankings. Consider JP representative of all those players who should be prospects still, but we rushed them: Burgos, Nunez, Sisco (we had to rush him), Bautista (to a lesser extent). Howell's only barrier to being an good pitcher is control. If he can spot that curveball, then watch out. The way the Royals handled him last year was a shame. He needed to stay in one place and simply get some innings under his belt. Hopefully, he can spend the year in Omaha and work on controlling his stuff.
Grade: B
5. Luis Cota
Supposed to have great stuff, but was inconsistent at Low-A. Tailed off towards the end of the year. Of course, he was a teenager most of the year. Still his peripherals were good, less than 1H/1ip, 1HR/15ip. Needs to improve control and command. I have no idea how he will do at High Desert, but a jump to Wichita would be foolish. He might have bad numbers this, but I'll be happy as long as he doesn't get hurt. Grade: B
6. Jeff Bianchi
I didn't like this pick when the Royals took him in the 2nd round. Funny how a 1200 OPS can change your thinking. All the caveats about rookie ball apply, but Bianchi seems like a good find. He is a polished High School player. Scouts didn't think (some still don't think) he has a very high ceiling. But, as we know, projecting High Schoolers is more art than science. I hope he will be pushed a little and go to the Midwest League. If he does go to the Midwest League, expect some struggles, but he could be a good player for us in a few years.
Grade: B
7. Donnie Murphy
I'm probably the only person on the planet to give him this high a grade. Funny what 77 AB's can do. He's got a good glove and then posts an 885 OPS at Wichita (it was only 200+ AB's but still). Then he tanks in 77 AB's with the big club and people are ready to drop him off the roster. It's not like this guy is 27, he is still 22 (23 in two months). A good prospect. Grade: B
8. Chris Lubanski
Is he the poster boy for inflated High Desert stats? Or is he someone who made genuine strides towards becoming a good prospect? The first month of the season he was awful. In his first 92 AB's he hit: .163/.214/.293 . After that, he hit: 348/397/643(including a cool 13-15 in the playoffs) in 454 AB's. That a 1040 OPS for those of you keeping score at home. He also improved his base running, going 14-15 in steals. I haven't heard if his fielding in CF improved (he was atrocious in 2004). He is obviously more valuable if he can stay in CF. They say the biggest jump in the minors is from A to AA, so this is a critical year. If he hits 260/310/430 with a K-BB of 4-1, then we are looking at a High Desert Mirage. If he hits 290/350/475 with a K-BB of 2.5-1, then we have a prospect. If he hits 310/375/550, then we have a stud. I'm guessing somewhere between the 1st or 2nd scenerio.
Grade: B-
9. Billy Buckner
Billy doesn't get much love. But he pitched pretty well at Burlington and then did a better job than his ERA shows at High Desert. He K's about 1 per inning. His control suffered in the promotion, but he gave up fewer HR's. I assume he'll go to Wichita this year and I think he could be a solid pitcher. Grade: B-
10. Chris McConnell
According to last year's Baseball America's Prospect Handbook, McConnell is good defensively. So, his 919 OPS in Idaho Falls looks pretty good. He moves to a much tougher hitting environment this year in Burlington. But he walks about as much as he strikes out. If he can have an 800 OPS at Burlington, then he will be a very good prospect. Grade: B-
11. Kila Kaaihue 1B
I know it was High Desert, but come on: 97 walks, 97 K's. I don't care where you do that, it's impressive. Kila doesn't get much love. He doesn't have a ton of power, but the guy can get on base. He might develop into a 20 homer guy. He was only 21 at High A. I'm thinking he could be Sean Casey-lite or better. Power is one of the skills that tends to develop later. We all know HD helped our hitters, the question is: how much did it help them? For the sake of those of us who follow prospects, I hope the Royals don't stick in HD, it will make it a lot easier to rate prospects. This season at Wichita will prove a lot for guys like Kaaihue, Lubanski, Donachie and Moye.
Grade: B-
12. Chris Nicoll RHP
Just a good, solid starting pitcher. Average stuff, very good control. Won't be a front end pitcher, but has a shot to be league average or perhaps a tick above. Pitched really well in the Pioneer League, which is a hitters' haven. I'm guessing he'll go to Burlington (he might be advanced enough to go to High Desert, but that can ruin a guy's confidence in a hurry). If he's able to be league average, then by the time he's ready for free agency, he can collect a 3 year, $27 million contract. Grade: B-
13. Mario Lisson 1B/3B/OF/?
The best Royals prospect you've never heard of. He was having a fine year at Burlington last year before he got hurt. Had an almost 800 OPS, and a 386 OBP while only having a 250 batting average (lots of walks). I'm guessing that average will go up and with it the OBP. He still needs to find a position, but that is more a matter of he is supposed to be athletic (not that he is a butcher with the glove). Keep an eye on him at High Desert this year. (sadly, both Lisson and Donachie were not graded by John in his latest book. I don't know why he left them out) Grade: B-
14. Adam Donachie C
842 OPS, but his home park was yada yada yada...He may not hit. But, from what I hear, he consistently throws out half of all would be base stealers. Adam was a 2nd rounder in 2002. He had had a rough go up until 2005. He struggled with the bat and then was hit by a bat and had a fractured skull in 2004. He rebounded with a very solid year. He will be 22 this year. The development curve for catchers is always tricky. But catchers who are cheap, can have an OPS of above 700 and play good defense are rarer than you think. How else do we get stuck with Paul Bako? Grade: C+
15. Shane Costa OF
One of those guys who will probably never be a starting outfielder, but could develop into a good 4th. If he can muster the power that his frame looks like it should have, he would then have starting potential. But, he'll be 25 this year and I'm guessing he will get to know I-29 pretty well this year after he starts at Omaha. Grade: C
16. Mitch Maier OF
One of the more frustrating Royal draft picks of the past few years because he was the type of guy you were pleasantly surprised the Royals would pick. In his final college season, Mitch walked 25 times and K's 9 times. He looked like he could be someone who would give a great OBP and a handful of power. This year, he did great in the hitting Mecca of High Desert, but was then promoted and struggled at Wichita. The rumor is that his struggles last year can be attributed to trying working something out with his swing. We shall see. I'm guessing he will start again at Wichita. Show me something, Mitch.
Grade: C
17. Andres Blanco SS
I wasn't even sure if I should put him on here. I just don't think he will ever crack a 650 OPS. If he can sustain a 700 OPS he could be an asset (hey, that would be better than our current SS). The Royals need to let him have a whole year in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League and see if he can hold his own, then maybe we can talk next spring.
Grade: C
18. Joseph Dickerson CF
Widely considered a signability pick in the 4th round last year. Dickerson had a good short-season in Arizona. Had a little more power than I expected (but its hard to read in the AZ League). Supposedly has speed, but needs to learn how to use it (9SB 12 CS)
Perhaps he will start in Burlington or might wait until Idaho Falls.
Grade C:
19. Miguel Vega 1B/3B
Vega slid to the 4th round. A very strong kid from Puerto Rico he is still learning to hit. He was hurt most of last year. This year he, like McCall (see below) will be at High Desert. I'll be he will hit some fun moon shots. Watch the K/BB ration to see if he should move up this list or not.
Grade: C
20. Eric Cordier
I had Brian McFall here originally, but I put Cordier on b/c I think his stuff is good, his arm is sound and hopefully he'll have a big year at Burlington. He had knee problems last year and is somewhat raw, but he is supposed to have 3 above average pitches.
Grade: C
The Royals have an average farm system that could look good next year if Gordon, Butler and Andrew Miller are the top 3.
by nwroyal on Feb 1, 2006 4:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i think
by SoCalSoxFan on Feb 3, 2006 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Twins top 20
- Francisco Liriano SP - Stuff, youth, physical build, stats, lefthandedness. He's got everything going for him. The injury history is a nagging concern however.
- Jason Kubel OF - He really pummeled AA, AAA, and MLB in 2004. Injury is the main concern. I'd like to see him take a few more free passes, too. Poor man's Jeremy Hermida.
- Scott Baker SP - From observation, I think he's got the stuff to strike out around 7 batters per 9 innings at the MLB level. If he does that, he could be an ace, despite having what some label as #2/3 stuff. He's got the other sabermetric stats going for him with his low walk and homer rates.
- Glen Perkins - College finesse lefty. I was very concerned with his AA transition; his H/9 was over 9, his K/9 was under 9, and his ERA ballooned to 4.90. He answered my fears with a very solid Arizona Fall league, posting a 2.53 ERA and a 37/6 K/BB ratio in 32 IP in the notorious hitter's league.
- Anthony Swarzak - Has better than average stuff and put up good numbers in AA despite being only 19. Displays a nice blend of stuff and control for a young pitcher.
- Matt Moses 3B
- Trevor Plouffe SS
- Adam Harben SP
- Jay Rainville SP
- Denard Span OF
- Alex Romero OF
- Kyle Waldrop SP
- Boof Bonser SP
- JD Durbin SP
- Kevin Slowey SP
- Matt Garza SP
- Eduardo Morlan SP
- Henry Sanchez 1B
- Juan Portes 2B/OF
- Jose Mijares SP
by limozeen on Feb 1, 2006 5:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
nice guys
by atlbraves on Feb 1, 2006 5:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
My Rays'
- Delmon Young- super-star potential
- Jeff Niemann- HUGE upside, IMO higher than Kazmir, which is why I rank him here despite the injury concern.
- Wes Bankston- solid 1st base prospect. Has his for good power and had decent dicipline at the last two years.
- Elijah Dukes- 5-tool prospect, would be in the uber prospect if he didn't have such make-up issues. Outperformed Jeff Francouer in the same league, 7 months younger.
- Jason Hammel- Upside of a #2, more likely a #3 stater. A good fastball that sits at 92-93 and touches 96. A plus curve, that when on, reminds me of Zito's. Not quite as good, but still a good pitch. Change is a work in progress.
- Wade Davis-The next big thing in the Rays' organization. Has a good curve and slider with a fastball that touches 98.
- Chuck Tiffany- Former Dodgers prospect with a 90mph fastball and a good curve and change. No great pitch, but locates everything.
- Jake McGee-
- Reid Brignac
- Chris Mason
- John Jaso
- Jamie Shields
- James Houser
- Andy Sonnanstine
- Matt Walker
- Jeremy Hellikson
- Elliot Johnson
- Fernando Perez
- Shawn Riggans
- Chris Seddon
by Tyler on Feb 1, 2006 6:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Future Stros Hitters and Pitchers
- Hunter Pence OF: Best hitter in the system since Berkman.
- Josh Flores OF: Very good athelete with great defense, speed and hitting potential. He is also blessed to be a guy the organization has confidence in.
- Eli Iorg OF: He can mash and run well.
- Ben Zobrist SS: Has unbelivable plate discipline.127/83 BB/K and .437 OBP. He is a doubles hitter that can field well and run pretty good.33SB 10 CS
- Brooks Conrad 2B/IF: HAs developed good pop with 23 HR and good eye with 68/119 BB/K in 05. Can play several IF positions and could play in 06 if he was not blocked by 3 players. He is so high because IMO he is most refined ML ready player in the system and he has gained pop.
- Jonathan Ash 2B: Slick fielding doubles hitter that walks more than strikes out and gets on base well. HAs not figured out how to use speed and has a bad stealing%.
- Justin Towles C: Has moved into the #1 catching prospect for the system. Good defense and has gained the confidense of the organization. Also 21 HBP in 273 AB wierd.
- Neil Sellers 3B: Has good power and walks more than K's. 58/57 BB/K
- Lou Santangelo C: Has developed crushing power and decent mobility for C.
- Koby Clemens 3B/C: Has the most confidence of all in the system. Also has best teaching.
- Jason Hirsh: Hits mid-90's consistantly with fastball and throws a great two seam after going to the Ryan camp last year. Has great "pitchability" and beats batters.
- Troy Patton: Refined beyond his years. Throws low 90's consistantly with change+ and curve+. Is the prize piece in the system.
- Fernando Nieve: Future RP IMO. Great all around pitcher.
- James Barthmaier: 2nd most exciting young pitcher. Threw up great numbers with high K's and low hits.
- Brian Bogusevic: Has the confidense of the system and is refining all of his pitches this offseason.
- Felipe Paulino Del Guidice: Is projected highly in house.
- Taylor Buccholz: One of best at the AFL. Got stronger throughout the season and ended well. He has come back to good prospect.
- Mark McLemore: Servicable lefty with "pitchability". Great season at AA and has been consistantly improving at each level.
- Paul Estrada: Good RP with 3-1 K-BB.
- Jared Gothreaux: Could end up SP or RP. Has slipped slightly moving up each level, but decent numbers at AAA.
by Shamus on Feb 1, 2006 6:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Guys at Nolan Ryan Elite Camp
Infielders Jonathan Ash, Koby Clemens, Tommy Manzella, and Ben Zobrist; catchers Ralph Henriquez, Lou Santangelo, and J.R. Towles; outfielders Josh Anderson, Josh Flores, Eli Iorg, Charlton Jimerson and Hunter Pence.
The Astros have said that the players that attended last year improved much more than they could have legitimately expected.
This camp is the best thing I have ever heard of. I asked earlier if other teams do this.Do they?
by Shamus on Feb 1, 2006 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Braves top 20
- Jarrod Saltamacchia... arguably the best Catching prospect and could be the next Victor Martinez.
- Chuck James- A SABRmetric favorite, his statistics are very impressive but his scouting report are so-so... reminds me of Mark Mulder or Doug Davis.
- Elvis Andrus- One of the unknowns in the minors, he has the potential to be a major league all-star and compares to could be anyone from Juan Uribe- Miguel Tejada since he is still 17-year-old.
- Joey Devine- Rushed to the Majors but coould def. be the next Braves clloser in a few years... reminds me of Trevor Hoffman or Franciso Cordero.
by atlbraves on Feb 1, 2006 7:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
My Indians' Top 20 with commentary!
Here is my Indians' Top 20, revised to include Marte and Shoppach:
- Andy Marte - I debated about placing him #1 or #2, but since he has a good start on AAA, a higher ceiling, and is solid in virtually every facet of the game, I put him #1. A very welcome addition to the Indians' farm system! :-)
- Jeremy Sowers - I think he has a good chance to become a good #3 or even #2 pitcher. He doesn't have a blazing fastball, but he has excellent command of four pitches and breezed past High-A and AA in his first pro season.
- Adam Miller - He'd either be #1 or #2 without the elbow injury; I still think he will be a frontline pitcher as he's only 21; plus his mental makeup, stuff, and command are all very good for a young power pitcher.
- Brad Snyder - Only negative is his high strikeout rate at AA Akron (94 Ks in 304 ABs.) That's why I would advocate leaving him at AA through at least the first half of 2006. Has power, speed, a good throwing arm; just needs time to refine the strike zone.
- Fausto Carmona - Some doubt his ability due to the low K rate (49 K in 83.0 IP at AAA in 2005,) but just turned 22 and walked less than 2/9 IP at AAA. Has very good command of a mid-90s fastball, plus good offspeed stuff (I believe it's a changeup that is his second pitch.)
- Franklin Gutierrez - Made progress in 2005 regarding the K zone (6 BB, 13 K in 67 ABs,) plus played for part or most of the year recovering from a wrist injury suffered in 2004, and had a great Venezuelan Winter League (can't find his actual stats, but I think he hit around .340 or so with more good plate discipline); he just turned 23.
- Andrew Brown - upper-90s fastball, good slider (I believe,) he could make a similar leap that Cabrera made in 2005 this year. Along with Gutierrez, he was received from the Dodgers for Milton Bradley.
- Rafael Perez - LHP with low to mid-90s fastball; some are targeting him for the bullpen, but he actually was better at AA in 2005 as a starter, where I would prefer to keep him if he can develop a consistent third pitch. Otherwise, a good setup man in the future.
- Edward Mujica - will turn 22 in May 2006; had a very good 2005 at High A Kinston (2 BBs, 32 Ks in 26 High-A IP; 5 BBs, 33 Ks in 34.1 IP AA IP); I believe he has a mid-90s fastball and slider (though I'm not certain on him - just starting to hear more scouting reports on him myself, though I did know of him since 2003-2004.) Seems to be a possible future closer candidate or very good set-up man.
- Tony Sipp - 45th Round Draft Choice who was paid more money - looks to be a very good investment so far; LHP with a low-90s fastball with good movement, as well as good offspeed stuff. Was a starter, but is most likely a setup-lefty out of the bullpen in the future - 47.1 High-A IP, 23 BBs, 59 Ks - still needs to improve the walk rate a bit, but the K rate is outstanding. Won't be 23 until July 2006. He was drafted out of Clemson.
- Ryan Garko - I placed him over Shoppach only because I believe his bat is better than Shoppach's - better average, comparable power, and a lower K rate, with a good number of BBs. Bat is supposedly Major-League ready now, but the Indians will start him at AAA in 2006 to improve his 1B defense, as I believe they see him as the future first baseman (for at least a few years, perhaps longer) as Broussard is not consistent, Aubrey has the chronic back problems, and Mulhern will likely shift to the OF. Head is still at least two years away.
- Kelly Shoppach - Like I said, I was unsure whether to put Garko or Shoppach first, but even though Shoppach is still a catcher and plays good defense, I'm not as convinced of his bat as I am of Garko's. Shoppach threw out 44% of would-be base stealers at AAA Pawtucket last year, and has good right-handed power (22 HRs at AAA in 2004, 26 HRs at AAA in 2005,) but needs to cut his Ks and improve that batting average. Still only 26 and hasn't had a real chance at the Majors, outside of 15 ABs in 2005, so he could still be a more consistent offensive force in terms of the batting average and fewer Ks. Certainly a welcome addition to the Indians' farm system as well! :-)
- Ryan Mulhern - As mentioned before, will likely play the OF in 2006 (which he did play at South Alabama, along with 1B) at AAA Buffalo to make room for Garko's return. Mulhern reverted back to his college hitting stance and the results were astounding - .321 AVG, 17 HRs, 48 RBIs, 19 BBs, 50 Ks in 159 High-A ABs; .311 AVG, 15 HRs, 46 RBIs, 28 BBs, 64 Ks in 244 AA ABs. Still has to decrease the K rate a bit, but made major progress in 2005; will be 26 in Nov. 2006.
- Ben Francisco - Somewhat of a sleeper; in some ways, comparable to Gutierrez in that he brings many of the same tools, with the exception of a weak arm, which will likely limit him to LF. Was considered a 4th OF before 2005, but had a good 2005 at AA Akron (.307 BA, 7 HRs, 46 RBIs, 24 BBs, 59 Ks in 323 AA ABs) and was even better in the Mexican Winter League where he belted around 15-17 HRs or so (again, don't have actual stats in front of me; just the reports I heard.) Question with him is how much power, but his 2005 has given him a chance to be in the mix with Gutierrez, Snyder, Mulhern, and Cooper; except for Snyder, the other four will likely be at AAA Buffalo to begin 2006. Will be 25 in Oct. 2006. Went to UCLA.
- Scott Roehl - Interesting LHP - (I believe his last name is pronounced "reel") - 60.2 IP, 41 H, 16 BBs, 57 Ks in 15 G at High-A Kinston, with 10 of them starts. I believe he was forced into starting duties due to some injuries and roster movements between High-A Kiston, AA Akron, and Low-A Lake County, but took very well (arguably, even better than he was as a reliever at Low-A Lake County); possibility of being a good #3-#4 starter as his walk rate is low and his K rate is just under 1/IP. Will be 25 in Aug. 2006 (he went to the Univ. of Arkansas.)
- Kevin Kouzmanoff - was the best 3B prospect in the Indians' organization until Marte was acquired; some think of him as more of a Casey Blake type player - not the greatest of tools, but gets the most out of them. Had a very good year at High-A Kinston - 254 ABs, .339 BA, 12 HRs, 58 RBIs, 24 BBs, 51 Ks; likely would have made it to AA Akron for a few months, but had a wrist injury I believe from a batted ball in a game just before his scheduled call-up. Took him about 6-8 weeks to recover - by then, was sent to SS A Mahoning Valley to rehab, then returned to Kinston to get his timing back - by then, the season was over. Will likely start at AA Akron in 2006 at the age of 24 (will be 25 in July 2006.) (Went to the Univ. of Nevada.)
- Jensen Lewis - was selected in the 3rd Round of the 2005 MLB Draft out of Vanderbilt; has a good low to mid-90s fastball with sinking action. At SS A Mahoning Valley, 13 G, 11 GS, 59.0 IP, 58 H, 11 BBs, 59 Ks. Looks to be at least a solid #3 with continued development; likely will start at Low-A Lake County in 2006.
- Joe Ness - was selected in the 6th Round of the 2005 MLB Draft out of Ball State; has a good low 90s fastball (may hit mid-90s at times,) but I'm not entirely sure on his repertoire. At SS A Mahoning Valley, 14 G, 10 GS, 59.1 IP, 52 H, 19 BBs, 68 Ks. Looks to be at least a solid #3 with continued development; likely will start at Low-A Lake County in 2006.
- Dan Denham - had an outstanding year at AA Akron in 2005 - 140.0 IP, 115 H, 30 BBs, 108 Ks, though admittedly, it was his second-go-around with AA Akron. That seems to be his pattern - it takes him two years to adjust and succeed at a new level. He struggled with his command in a few AAA starts at the end of 2005 before being shut down with an arm problem of some type (I don't know if it was a ligament or if it was more fatigue. It was supposedly not serious that required TJ.) Has a good low-90s fastball that sometimes can reach 94-95; has improved his offspeed stuff. Probably is a #3 or #4 starter in the MLs, though some have suggested he could be a late-inning bullpen pitcher, though I heard more of those rumors in 2003 and 2004. Will start at AAA Buffalo to begin 2006 at age 24 (won't turn 25 until Dec. 2006.)
- Stephen Head - was selected in the 2nd Round of the 2005 MLB Draft out of the Univ. of Mississippi. After a brief stint (37 ABs) at SS A Mahoning Valley, had 203 ABs at High-A Kinston - 4 HRs, 36 RBIs, 8 BBs, 33 Ks. Still needs to improve the strikeout rate, but he probably was a bit tired since he played at Miss. in the Spring, went to Mahoning Valley, then went to Kinston to end the year (and Kinston made the playoffs and made the championship game, losing to Wilmington 2-0.) Therefore, I want to evaluate Head this year to see if he can improve his K rate before stating he has contact problems. Supposedly, a plus defender at 1B. Will either start for a few months at High-A Kinston or possibly may start at AA Akron in 2006, though Aubrey is supposedly healthy again, which makes me think Aubrey will start at AA Akron in 2006, while Head begins 2006 at High-A Kinston, with a mid-season promotion certainly possible if he does well.
Trevor Crowe was #21 and Michael Aubrey was #25, mostly due to his chronic back problem - if he didn't have that problem, he probably would be Top 10 or just outside of the Top 10 (probably right behind Garko and Shoppach.)
Of course, both of them, and many others were moved down 1-2 spots because of the inclusion of Marte and Shoppach.
Take care and have a great day! :-)
by indiansfan on Feb 1, 2006 8:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Shoppach, Garko, Head, Crowe, Aubrey
by abbreviatedman on Feb 1, 2006 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I appreciate the response!
When I was making my list about 1-1.5 months ago, I was having difficulty determining my rankings on whether it should be based more on ceiling or how far they have progressed in the system.
I sort of took the combination of the two to come up with my list.
Regarding Head and Crowe, I'd like to see more before I rank them too high - perhaps Top 15 would be appropriate, but to place them ahead of players, even relievers, who have done well at AA and AAA, seems too high to me at this point.
Potential-wise, I'd agree with you, but based on production to this point, I'd still include Brown, Perez, Sipp, and Mujica. Plus, these are some of the best relievers the Indians' system has - we have many more, but these are arguably the best ones.
Brown has closer-type stuff, though Cabrera will probably get the nod because he has great stuff in his own right and was up first, plus his command is just a tick better than Brown's.
Perez and Sipp still have outside chances of being starters, though I think Sipp is being looked at mostly as a reliever, whereas Perez could go either way in my opinion. Either way, I see both of these guys being more than just lefty-on-lefty type relievers; they seem more like setup men to me.
Mujica has the makings of a closer as well with dynamite stuff as well and is only 22 in May 2006 (I believe I forgot to mention his age as part of his profile - sorry.)
I can understand your point about position players being more valuable; however, most knock Garko down a few pegs because he doesn't have a true position defensively. He was originally a catcher, but won't stay there; the Indians are now trying to make him a 1B, but it's likely he won't be more than average there (though his bat will likely make up for any shortcomings defensively.)
Shoppach, though I have a higher opinion of him after reading more reports on him, I'm still not totally sure how high of a BA he will hit for and whether his walk/strikeout ratio will be that good at the ML level - I have reservations about him. Defensively, he's supposedly very good, but offensively, I'm cautiously optimistic about him - that's why I didn't rank him super high yet.
Plus, he was only #7 on BA's Boston's lists, and I think most would agree that the Indians' farm system still outranks the Red Sox, especially after they traded Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez to Florida. Therefore, it's logical Shoppach would drop a bit lower in the Indians' system, but it's not a dramatic drop like Aubrey's.
The reason I dropped Aubrey as low as I did is because his chances of making an impact at the ML level are greatly reduced from the reports I'm hearing about his back problems, which the reports are suggesting that they are chronic back problems - I'm hopeful he can recover and perform as he was once expected to, but if and until he can, I placed him that low because the players ahead of him either have comparable ceilings and/or have better chances of producing at the ML level than he does.
Even a quality receiver should be ranked higher than a potentially great ML starting position player if his chances of producing at the ML level are only 50% or so in my opinion.
I actually had Tony Sipp 13th in my original list, but another poster here felt he should have been higher - around 8-9 or so forth, and when I thought about it, I agreed with him because I had sort of forgotten about Sipp. Of course, this was before Marte and Shoppach entered the system, which caused everyone else's ranking to drop 1-2 spots.
Originally, I had Garko at #9, but because of Marte and the adjusted ranking for Sipp, he dropped to #11, which is not bad for my system. :-)
I agree that ML position players are more valuable than relievers, but there are some question marks with the five you mentioned
Garko (defense)
Shoppach (how much will he hit?)
Aubrey (injury concerns cloud his future)
Crowe (lack of experience; not enough data to get a good reading of his true abilities; 2006 will be a better barometer.)
Head (lack of experience; not enough data to get a good reading of his true abilities; 2006 will be a better barometer.)
That's why they were lower on my lists. Nevertheless, I have high hopes for all of them and they're all good prospects - I guess you could consider my list a "tougher list" in some ways. :-) Just because you're number 20 or 25 doesn't mean that you are just an organization player on my list. Plus, as I alluded to before, the Indians have a deep system, deeper than the Red Sox in my opinion, especially after trading two of their better prospects away.
By the way, no offense, but actually, Miller hasn't even been at AA yet, though he should be there this year and would have probably started there last year if not for the elbow injury. Therefore, I do take projection into account as well, but before the elbow injury, there were few to no negatives on Miller - he has great makeup, poise, stuff, and command for a young power pitcher - that's why he was definitely in my Top 3 even though he hasn't reached AA yet.
A player with that type of makeup, stuff, poise, and projection would get a high ranking on my system even if he was just drafted or in Low-A, etc. Otherwise, I take projection and production combined into account to determine their rankings.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Feb 2, 2006 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
me
- Marte
- Sowers
- Miller
- Snyder
- Carmona
- Gutierrez (after a solid winter)
- Garko
- Head
- Aubrey
- Andrew Brown
- Shoppach
- Lofgren
- J.D. Martin
- Kouzmanoff
- Mulhern
by ultxmxpx on Feb 2, 2006 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good list! My thoughts...
Good list - I can see why you posted them where you did.
A few thoughts:
- Lofgren - I had him lower only because he still has to lower his walk rate and be more consistent, but I can understand why you ranked him that high - he has very good stuff - if he can improve his command, he has the chance to be a very good #2 starter.
- Martin - His dominating AA stint in 2005 was impressive, but unfortunately, he had to have TJ surgery and will be out most, if not all, of 2006, so that's why I ranked him lower. If he can come back (he just turned 23 in Jan. 2006,) and exhibit the same great command, he still has a chance of being a good #4, maybe even a #3 pitcher.
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Feb 2, 2006 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
indians list
I agree with the placement of Sowers and Miller. Right now, I would probably rank Gutierrez ahead of Snyder, whose strikeouts make me a little nervous. Gutierrez made big progress on his K/BB ratio, and is the better defensive outfielder (though Snyder is no slouch). I also would have put Head a bit higher, in the 10-15 range.
All in all though, a good list.
by tribemountain on Feb 1, 2006 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point, though there's only one in A ball, but
Hello whiteboy0131,
I appreciate your thoughts.
I agree a potential starting 1B is probably more valuable than relievers, but two points:
- Garko's defense will probably be no better than average at best (not a huge deterrent, mind you, but still a slight negative.)
- Garko, projected, might hit around .300 with about 20 to maybe 25 HRs with around 80-90 RBIs - for a 1B, that might be just above-average at best - therefore, offensively, while above-average, he probably will not reach the numbers of a Delgado, a Teixiera, a Pujols (not many would with him :-), who most consider to be elite first basemen. Garko is not in that class offensively, though still solid to above-average.
Nevertheless, I still think he's a good prospect and wished that he was playing up here to begin 2006 - he almost certainly could outdo Broussard right now. Improving his defense for the long-term at 1B isn't bad though as he projects to be the long-term 1B, as Aubrey's injuries are clouding his future, Mulhern will likely shift to the OF or be trade bait and Head probably won't be ready for at least two more years.
By the way, this was my mistake, but actually, Edward Mujica did have AA experience, even though I said he had a very good year at High A Kinston in 2005; he also had 34.1 IP at AA (with 5 BBs and 33 Ks) as well, so only Sipp has not had AA experience.
Brown has AAA experience and is pretty much ready for the Majors, though he may start back at AAA because the bullpen is pretty full.
Perez has 66.2 IP of AA experience, so he should be close to moving to AAA, especially if he is a reliever, though I still think there is a chance he could be a starter; if so, he may spend a few more months at AA.
Mujica has 34.1 IP of AA experience, so he should be ready to move to AAA by the second half of 2006 at the latest.
Again, that was my mistake, not yours. But that's why I placed those four ahead of Garko - Brown is virtually ready and has similar stuff to Cabrera, Perez still could be a starter and should at least be a dominant lefty set-up man, Mujica has the makings of a dynamite closer and is only 22, plus has AA experience; only Sipp would be the question mark, and I did have him behind Garko originally (around #13,) but his fast progress, fast track to the MLs, and outstanding K rate made me raise the grade a bit more - perhaps I would revise his grade to behind Garko, around #15 or so (which was actually the place I had him originally if you include Marte and Shoppach's positions in the new list.)
I'll see about Sipp's grade and reconsider it.
Thanks for the suggestion - I greatly appreciate it.
Take care and have a great day! :-)
by indiansfan on Feb 2, 2006 12:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not going to argue with your list
But i will say that in all your posts you seem to use very small sample sizes when writing about players. For instance:
Made progress in 2005 regarding the K zone (6 BB, 13 K in 67 ABs,)
Also something about Mujica:
You seem to rate him very highly. You said he has good stuff (and BA agrees) but they don't even have him in the top 10. In the Indians Chat on BA, Chris Kline said he has exceptional stuff, but needs to develop a third pitch, because lefties kill him (batted .306) against him. I think if you knew this you'd probably drop him down a few spots. With 2 pitches it's unlikely (since he's not Billy Wagner or Mariano Rivera, and even Mo has a changeup) that he'll be a closer, and maybe even a setup man.
by ohad on Feb 2, 2006 7:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good points; my response!
I could have given you more batting statistics, but the post was already long, so I chose to only show the latest ones; here are Gutierrez's 2005 AA batting stats:
30 BB, 77 K in 383 AA at-bats.
The real reason I focused on his 2005 AAA BB/K rate because he wasn't nearly as good in 2004 at AAA; these are his 2004 AAA BB/K batting stats:
1 BB, 11 K in 27 ABs
Compared to his 2005 AAA BB/K batting stats:
6 BBs, 13 Ks in 67 ABs
To me, that's progress in improving his strike zone judgment. Plus, from what I heard from the Venezeulan Winter League, he also had good BB/K ratios there as well, though unfortunately, I can't find the exact stats. :-(
Excuse the abbreviated version of my post - if I had posted all the batting stats for each prospect, the post would be 3-4 times longer than it already was. That's why I only showed a limited number of ABs for each prospect, but if you check out the other stats for yourself, chances are, you'll see that my reports are pretty accurate. Of course, you can always go to thebaseballcube.com to see the full stats and judge for yourself. :-)
As for Mujica, where did you get those stats against left-handed batters?
Granted, he must improve against lefties, but being only 22 with good stuff seems to still warrant a high grade to me, especially when his AA transition was pretty seamless.
If I'm correct, most closers usually rely on two pitches (with maybe a third pitch that they don't often use); Gagne, Lidge, and Rivera may have three pitches, but it's usually two pitches they use to get hitters out - all of them have the fastball, I believe Gagne has the changeup, Lidge has the slider, and Rivera has the cutter. As far as I know, Rivera rarely uses the changeup; it's fastball, cutter, fastball, cutter. In fact, it's often the cutter, with the fastball mixed in on occasion.
Rarely do most closers use three pitches - otherwise, they probably would have been ML starters rather than closers. That seems to me that none of the three above had good enough command of that third pitch or the third pitch wasn't even average to remain as starters.
I understand your point about him having to improve against lefties, but I wouldn't discount his ability to be a closer or a setup guy yet - he just needs to either refine the two pitches he has (i.e., have better command of them,) or as you and Mr. Kline have suggested, come up with a third pitch. Being that's he only 22, he still has time to do that.
As you suggested, I did not know about Mr. Kline's comments, so yes, I was not aware of his difficulties against lefties. That might drop his ranking a few spots, but he'd still be just outside the Top 10 (#11 or #12 at the lowest) on my list.
No offense to BA, but the reason I didn't put Head and Crowe in the Top 10 is because I want to see what they do over a full season when they are rested. They had nice professional debuts, but they weren't at one level long enough to get a true bearing on their real abilities and status in my opinion.
Obviously, their ceilings and potential are pretty high, but I don't think it hurts to hold back a little bit until we know for sure what they can do. Similar to KC's Alex Gordon - there's a debate over whether Gordon is #1 or Butler is #1; granted, Gordon is projected to be a more complete player, but Butler has already advanced and succeeded at AA, and I think he's younger than Gordon, so you can make a very strong case for Butler being #1 based on performance, which I also considered in making up my list.
No offense to BA, but while they look at performance, they take projections and ceilings into account - that's why their list and my list differ. Just two different views on a farm system.
Otherwise, the players are the same, except for Aubrey, who I dropped down because I'm not confident he will make a ML impact for the Indians due to his supposedly chronic back problems. If he can overcome them (yoga did not work last year,) then I still think he can be productive, but for right now, guys like Mulhern, Francisco, and Kouzmanoff have better chances of making a ML impact than Aubrey, which in my opinion, warrant the higher rankings over Aubrey.
If Aubrey's condition improves, then it would be likely that he will be higher than Francisco and Kouzmanoff, and possibly Mulhern (though Mulhern has handled AA, Aubrey hasn't quite yet, mostly because he's gone down with an injury before he can get sustained playing time at AA, so I still might have Mulhern a spot ahead of Aubrey, even though Aubrey is considered the more polished hitter.)
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Feb 2, 2006 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My take on the Brewers
2)OF Corey Hart -- I seem to like him more than others, but I think he'll be a good one. He doesn't look it, but the numbers indicate he could be a 20/20 or even 30/30 man in the majors with his well-developed base-stealing talent. He has good of power, is very athletic, and has refined his command of the strike zone the last few years. If he can stick in centerfield he'll be one of the more valuable commodities in all of baseball, but even in the (likely) event that he can't he should be a very good player in a corner outfield spot.
3)3B Ryan Braun -- High ceiling and on the fast track. Good plate discipline in college, not so good in A ball, but when someone's hitting .355 with a near .300 ISO I can't really blame him for swinging at everything. The bat should play well anywhere on the diamond, and the Brewers seem to think he can play third defensively in the majors which only helps his value. He might need a consolidation year after such a blistering start, but if the lack of discipline is an aberration(which I think it is), he should be ready for the big leagues by mid 2007.
4)SP Zach Jackson -- Moderate upside but very close to the big leagues. More of a control lefty than a dominator, but he limits his walks and homeruns and should be a strong #4 starter in the near future.
5)SP Mark Rogers -- Standard high school pitching prospect; great stuff, bad control, long ways off. They spent last year overhauling his mechanics, primarily correcting a propensity to throw across his body according to what I've read. Reports are he's made great progress in that regard, and the fact that he was able to keep his stuff throughout certainly bodes well. Finished strong, though I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see him repeat Low-A this year. He's still several years away, though he has great upside and should be arriving in Milwaukee right about when the team's really hitting its stride. Hopefully he'll still be a starter at that time, though if his mechanics and command don't improve significantly he'll be moved to relief.
6)SP Dana Eveland -- Nice upside, closer to the majors than Rogers, but not ready yet. AAA will do him some good, though he ought to be ready for a permanent move to the majors by late next year. Few weaknesses in his statistical record, and his bigget asset is an ability to greatly limit home runs.
7)OF Nelson Cruz -- Just about ready for the big leagues, though as of yet doesn't have a spot to play and is behind Hart in the queue. Unfortunately for him he's about as old as one can be and still be considered a prospect. Not a good contact hitter, doesn't consistently hit for average and strikes out a lot, but has a ton of power, draws his walks, and is fairly athletic. He's somewhat reminiscent of Jeromy Burnitz statistically (like Nelson will, Burnitz debuted late), though with his athleticism and a somewhat superior contact ability Cruz should be a bit better player.
8)SP Yovani Gallardo -- Has pretty good stuff and a good pitcher's body for what that's worth. Mechanics need some tweaking. Stuff may improve with time as he's still very young. Has pretty good control, especially for a guy who'll just be 20 this year, and also has done a very good job limiting home runs so far.
9)SS Alcides Escobar -- His primary virtue is his age. Just 18 last year, he held his own in A-ball, hitting about .300 for the season before going in the tank at the end. He's "toolsy," mostly very very fast. Scouts say he has decent pop in his bat, though if it's there it sure hasn't shown itself yet. Showed decent base-stealing acumen, 30 steals vs. 13 caught, which should improve in time. Strike zone discipline needs a ton of work, though 90 Ks in 520 ABs isn't irredeemable (I won't mention the walk totals). By all acounts is strong defensively and should stay at shortstop. PECOTA lists Joaquin Arias and Luis Rivas as his top comparables, and I can live with that, though he reminds me of Cristian Guzman a bit too much for my liking. Still, has some considerable upside and time is most definitely on his side.
9)SP Carlos Villanueva -- Something of a sleeper. Had real pretty stats in the FSL and made AA, where I'd imagine he'll atart 2006. He's limited HR allowed everywhere he's played except 2004 in the Midwest League, though that's not a ton of places. Not young, but not old either, and has very good command. I can't seem to find any info on his stuff other than BA saying he has the best changeup in the Brewers' minor-league organization. High K rates and low hits allowed suggest it's at least pretty good.
10)SP Will Inman -- 2005 draftee out of high school. Good stuff, broke the HS State strikeout record in Virginia. The Brewers are making him stop throwing his splitter in order to protect his health. As far as I am aware he still needs to develop a change-up, though he's obviously very young and has plenty of time. Dominated the Pioneer League for 45 innings, and had only one negative statistical marker, 6 WP. Granted that's not worth beans, but he's got a high upside and is off to a promising start.
11)RP Jose Capellan
12)SP Manny Parra
13)2B Hernan Iribarren
14)SP Dennis Sarfate
15)C Angel Salome
16)CF Dave Krynzel
17)SP Josh Wahpepah
18)SP Rolando Pascual
19)OF Brad Nelson
20)SP Ben Hendrickson
Honorable Mention:
Enrique Cruz(technically not a prospect, but seems to have a future)
Callix Crabbe
Lou Palmisano
Tim Dillard
Charlie Fermaint
My Observations:
It's a much deeper system than I realized when I began researching for this, particularly in the pitching department. They seem to be collecting a lot of pitchers who limit the long ball. I'm not sure if this is an organizational philosophy or just luck, but it is interesting. They also need a catching prospect in the worst way. Salome imploded in Low-A, and while he's young and intriguing it's highly unlikely he'll be ready when Damian Miller leaves or retires.
by delomir on Feb 1, 2006 8:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hart and Braun are both excellent
by limozeen on Feb 1, 2006 11:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dr B's 2006 Giants Top 50 Prospects
- Matt Cain
- Kevin Frandsen
- Dan Ortmeier
- Craig Whitaker
- Fred Lewis
- Nate Schierholtz
- Marcus Sanders
- Sharon Martis
- Pablo Sandoval
- Waldis Joaquin
- Travis Ishikawa
- Merkin Valdez
- Eddy Martinez-Esteve
- Brian Wilson
- Jonathan Sanchez
- Kelyn Acosta
- Ben Copeland
- Dan Griffin
- Bill Sadler
- Mark Minicozzi
by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 1, 2006 10:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Astros Top 10 Pitchers & Hitters
Pitchers:
- Jason Hirsh - He finally put it together & will be in the rotation by years end.
- Troy Patton - Flashes Oswalt potential from the left side. Has to prove it above A ball.
- Fernando Nieve - SP now, but will be a dominant reliever in the bigs
- Jimmy Barthmaier - As good as Hirsh, but needs to work on control.
- Matt Albers - personal problems behind him. *BREAKOUT PICK
- Brian Bogusevic - not a great debut, but tons of innings in 2005.
- Mark McLemore - Nice lefty who just needs to conintue what he's been doing...improving control. Needs to recover from injury though.
- Felipe Paulion del Guidice - Will be right behind Nieve with his 100 mph FB in 2008.
- Chance Douglas - finese guy who will make it onto people's radar this year BREAKOUT PICK
Hitters:
- Hunter Pence - OF - Great hitter, just needs time to develop.
- Luke Scott - OF - Old, sure, but he'll hit 30-35 HR in MLB when given the chance. Burnitz but better average & power.
- Ben Zobrist - SS - Continues to achive. Great plate discipline.
- Josh Anderson - CF - Taveras II, but needs take more pitches. SLIGHLY less speed than Willy, but more power.
- Humberto Quintero - C - GREAT defensively. Just needs to translate hitting to MLB.
- Eli Iorg - RF - Gath's son. Recovering from stress fracture and still .333/.391/.565. Needs to show at higher levels.
- Josh Flores - CF - Taveras III. Believe it or not, as fast as Taveras and more power.
- Jonny Ash - 2B - Consistantly productive w/ great eye BREAKOUT PICK
- Sellers - 3B - Old for his league, but seems to be putting it together. BREAKOUT PICK*
- Mitch Einterson - OF - Dropped on many lists too far. After returning from "family issues" was killing the ball.
by FredUD on Feb 2, 2006 2:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I like your list
On the hitters I put more sway to the potential of some young guys. Humberto and Scott have too much experience to be prospects and both will likely be on the team if Bagwell does not.
Josh Anderson: He really does not have a place on this team and should be moved. He in Willy light. He has really never done anything as good as Willy except steal bags.
Flores: I had him a lot higher. Will likely be one of the best picks in the 05 draft IMO.
Einertson and others: I am pretty harsh on guys that have off-field problems or injuries. I drop them too far in others opinion for the following year.
What do you think of Brooks Conrad? It seems that Bruntlett has Conrad perminately blocked in this system, but I think he would do well in the majors as a utility next year. Also do you see Round Rock or Corpus games regularly? I go to Corpus 2-3 times a year and see about 6 games.
by Shamus on Feb 2, 2006 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Patton & Hirsh
by ultxmxpx on Feb 2, 2006 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
about Hirsh
I am a big Patton fan and he should be great says Nolan Ryan and Clemens. He has to throw more innings and dominate better hitters in the next season. He will likely be the top pitcher in the system next year.
It is not that he is not graded high it is that Hirsh has to be rated as high and he is ready to face ML talent.
by Shamus on Feb 2, 2006 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Higher Levels
Shamus - About Conrad. I've never been high him as some, but it was very, very telling of what the Astros thought of him when he was left off the 40-man for the Rule 5 draft for the 2nd time, even after a nice year last year. It's also very telling that no other team took a chance on him in that Rule 5 draft.
by FredUD on Feb 3, 2006 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My A's list:
1) Daric Barton, 1B-- LHB. The clear cut number one, probably in the top 20 prospects in baseball. Exceptional discipline, but with power questions. Just 20 and handling AA very well, home run production will determine if he is John Olerud semi-lite or Jason Giambi. More fits the Giambi mold with defensive questions, but has good work ethic and just moved to first, so he has time to develop (he also has Ron Washington to teach him)
Grade: A-
2) Javier Herrera, CF-- RHB. Seems to be a clear cut number 2 as well. Toolsiest player Oakland has, he is raw but advancing well. On offense, he shows good power, and great speed. In 360 at bats he had 13 homers and 18 doubles, and was 26-31 in SB's. He has a decent and improving strike zone judgement, though still needs to cut down the walks. (OBP 99 points above Average, that's isoOBP or something right?), but he did strike out 110 times in Low A Kane County. The Midwest league is regarded as a pitchers league though.May never hit for a high average. Herrera is also 20 years old, look for him to break out in the California League next year. On defense, he's very fast and covers a lot of ground, and has possibly the best arm in the system. As he fills out and gets stronger, a move to RF is possible. Comparable to possibly Carlos Beltran, lite, though i may be reaching here.
Grade: B+
3) Cliff Pennington, SS-- SH.Drafted 21 in the 2005 draft. Very solid tools. On offense, he's a switch hitter, spraying line drives, with doubles power. Very fast, good baserunner. In Low A, hit .276/.364/.359/.723 with 3 homers and 15 doubles in 290 at bats. 25/31 SB's. Controls the K zone well, 39/47 BB/K ratio. Should move fast, but has Crosby and Ellis blocking him. On defense, he has solid tools across the board, though can be a bit erratic. Has a strong arm, and quick feet and athleticism, though not always setting his feet leads to erratic throws. Concensus is that he can stay at SS. Sort of a Jose Reyes, with much better discipline. Maybe Furcal is better.
Grade: B
4) Travis Buck, LF-RF-- Also drafted in the 2005 draft, he is another polished college hitter. He still has more room to fill out though, as he is a little skinny. Like with Barton (though different players), power will determine whether he is an all star or an average left fielder. In Low A, 123 at bats, he hit .341/.427/.472/.898 with 1 homer and 13 doubles, and a great 19/19 BB/K ratio. On defense, he is average. Decent arm, decent range. He has great work ethic and competitiveness, attempting to move to 3B for ASU when that was a positional need. Will move quick as well, and if he adds lift in his swing could be OPSing around 850+ in the majors.
Grade: B
5)Kevin Melillo, 2B-- 23 years old. LHB. Melillo, drafted in the 2004 draft in the fifth round, enjoyed a great breakout year, making it all the way to AA (started in Low A). Melillo controls the strike zone very well, and hits for power (great commodity at second base). 2005 totals: 501 at bats, 35 doubles, 24 homers, 93 rbi's, 101 runs, 79/81 BB/K ratio. .305/.399/.535/.934. Melillo will continue at AA and will reach Sacramento (and possibly Oakland) by years end. Defensively, he is average. Nothing special, though working with Washington will help him a lot. Ceiling could be Chase Utley, lite.
Grade: B
6) Craig Italiano, RHP-- The first of the high school trio drafted in 2005, he has the best stuff. can reach triple digits with his fastball, and has a power slider, comparable to Brad Lidge. Mechanics questions have some scouts wondering whether he'll haev to become a closer, and if he doesn't develop his changeup, the move might be necessary. Best stuff in the system. If the A's challenge him, he'll start at Kane County. Might go back to rookie league, or short season ball.
Grade: B
7)Dan Meyer, LHP-- Acquired for Tim Hudson in the offseason, Dan Meyer came into ST hiding a shoulder injury. He sucked in ST, with velocity well below average at 85, and no break on the slider. He started the year in Sacramento, and sucked. The injury was discovered, he came back, sucked, and then was shut down. He wasn't himself the whole year. Luckily, he's still 24, and when healthy, has a ceiling of a numnber 2 starter. Normally at 92-93, with a mid 80's hard breaking slider and a decent but developing changeup. He'll start the year in AAA, and if he can regain form, will open up 2007 as the A's 5th starter.
Grade: B
8) Santiago Casilla (RHP)-- Formerly known as Jairo Garcia. His stock has dropped a little, though still at 25 is a good prospect. Has great stuff, comparable to Octavio Dotel (even in looks). 95+ fastball, power slider, developing change. Needs to refine the way he pitches, as he was rattled with runners on base. Also, must improve command. Might be on the way, dominated unfairly in the Dominican league. 4.47 ERA last year, though great ratios (aside from the dreaded walk). If he can get himself together, can be a top setup man and possibly closer (though not on the A's)
Grade: B
9) Vincent Mazzaro, RHP-- The third picked of the HS trio, Vincent Mazzaro is also a power right hander. Currently pitchign at 88-92 and touching 93, he has tremendous movement on his pitches though. He also has a put away slider, which he sometimes has trouble controlling. Questions of makeup and mechanics arise. DIdn't pitch as he signed late, Mazzaro might be challenged with Kane County. Ceiling is a decent 2, good 3.
Grade: B-
10) Shane Komine, RHP-- Hawaiian Punchout, came out of Nebraska. Returned last year from TJ surgery and got better as he went on, finishing with 30 great innings and AA, and 25 great (under 2 era) innings in the AFL. Unclear whether he will start or relieve, though looks like he will relieve. Has mid 90's fastball and good changeup.
Grade: B-
11) Jared Lansford RHP-- THe second picked of the HS trio, Jared is probably the most refined. He's the son of Carney, and would only be drafted as a second baseman, but the A's drafted him and Carny's ties to the A's paved the way for Lansford to sign as a pitcher. Lansford has good stuff, clocked at 93-94, with a good slider and good changeup. Lansford owns good command on all three pitches. He dominated rookie league, probably will start at Kane County (following in the footsteps of Ryan Webb). Ceiling as a 3 starter, fringy 2.
Grade: B-
12) Dallas Braden, LHP,-- A 24th round pick in 2004, Braden has surprised everyone. In his first full season (22 years old), Braden reached AA, and succeeded there.After dominating Stockton, he started in Midland 16 times, managing a 3.9 ERA. In 97 innings he gave up 104 hits, 6.59 K/9, 2.97 w/9, 1.4 whip. His peripherals were not up to par, but are a little skewed by a few of his last starts, and was shut down in August with a tired arm. There is nothign to worry about, Braden must continue to build up arm strenghth though. THere are questions as to whether he will haev to become a lefty out of the pen, because he dominates primarily with his screwball. He throws in the high 80's.
Grade: B-
13) Danny Putnam, LF-- LHB. Danny Putnam is a 23 year old LF'er drafted in 2004 out of Stanford. He's a polished lefty with solid/very good plate discipline, and a sweet swing. VERY VERY similar to Andre Ethier. He's a line drive doubles type, won't hit more than 20 homers (ceiling). He'll be a 23 year old all of next year in the Texas league, and i expect him to do exactly what Ethier did, possibly better. The similarities are just, wow. 37 doubles, 15 homers, 100 rbi's, 66/92 BB/K ratio. 867 OPS. Keep an eye on him. Build is compared to Brian Giles, but ceiling is nowhere near as high. On defense, he's fringy, with below average range and an average arm.
Grade: B-
14) Richie Robnett, CF-- RHB. 22 all of next year, he'll be challenged most likely in AA. GREAT raw power, strikes out too much. He's similar as a batter to Ryan Harvey. Very similar. Difference is, Robnett is a super freak athlete, built like, well, a bodybuilder. He had a horrendous start to the year, similar to Chavez, but recovered with 20 homers and 30 doubles in 457 at bats. 56/151 bb/k ratio, 764 OPS. Watch him. ON defense, he is very athletic and has improved his range, and his arm has improved as well, increasing his arm speed. He is still around average though.
Grade: B-
15) Jason Windsor, RHP-- Drafted in 2004 (in what's increasingly looking like a great draft), just after he led CSF to the CWS title. He dominated, and i watched every game he threw to Kurt Suzuki. He has a great changeup, throws his fastball in the high 80's. He also has an average slurve type, curveball (or some type of breaking ball). He came in as a C+ in John's preseason ranks, and i don't think it's changed. He dominated the Cal League (High A), with his peripherals even better than his 3.58 ERA. Called up to AA, his story is very similar to that of Dallas Braden. 5.72 ERA, horrendous 1.62 WHIP, he was shut down with a tired arm. Just been overworked. He'll come back to the Texas League, and he has a bulldog personality, he'll get through it even though his stuff is not the best. Some think his future like Braden is in middle relief.
Grade: C+
16) Jason Ray, RHP--Drafted in the 8th round in 2005, he looks like a steal so far. A JUCO pitcher, he was converted because of his arm from RF to pitcher. So he's relatively new to the pitching experience. Carries a mid 90's fastball with solid curve and circle change, though inconsistent with command on all pitches. He's a hard throwing setup man/closer. 21 years old, he pitched 29.2 innings in SS Vancouver. Amazingly, get this, he struck out 56 (!!!!) batters, good for a 16.99 k/9. Granted best pitchers park and weak competition, but the K's were just racked up. Command problems as well, walked 23 batters. Gave up 17 hits. Basically unhittable, literally. 2.12 ERA. He looks great.
Grade: C+
17) Kurt Suzuki, C-- RHB. Pretty much opposite of expectations. Came in with offensive questions, and with a great defensive reputation. Finished with a huge dissapointment on defense, though solid on offense. 22 years old. Controls the K'Zone very well, and has doubles power. Runs well for a catcher. 441 at bats in Stockton (Cal League), 12 homers, 26 doubles, 5 triples, 85 runs, 63/61 BB/K ratio. .277/.378/.440/818. Will move to the Texas league, looking for him to OPS around the same, possibly 10 points higher. Hopefully his defense will get back on par.
Grade: C+
18) Ryan Webb: LOADED with projectability (in the words of BA employee Kevin Goldstein). High school 4th rounder in 2004. Turns 20 on Sunday. Had a decent year in Low A Kane County. Breakout candidate next year or in two years. 4.76 ERA, 5.88 k/9, 9.72 h/9, 2.87 w/9, 1.4 whip. Not very good numbers. Look for him to improve significantly on this.
Grade: C+
- Gregorio Petit, SS-- RHB. Renowned for his GG potential, quetsions about his bat have carried with him. Last year, he had to have put some of them away. He OPS'ed in the Midwest League 795. .289/.349/.446. 9 homers, 10 doubles, 4 triples, 55 runs in 287 at bats. 26/44 BB/K ratio. 8/10 SB's. Overall a good offensive year. Will be 21 all of 2006 season. My favorite sleeper, he'll be playing in Stockton.
- Anthony Recker, C-- RHB. Limited information on this guy. He was drafted in the 18th round of the 2005 draft. He's a big man. 6'3, 230. Recker starred for Alvernia College before entering the draft, where he led the school in batting average, slugging percentage, home runs, total bases and walks. In the words of Jim Callis, Recker has "amazing raw power". In Vancouver while basically platooning, he got 150 at bats, with 5 homers and 8 doubles. .233/.315/.387/702. 16/40 bb/k ratio. Had soem trouble adjusting to wooden bats with the playing time division, as well as the most extreme pitching park in the minors. Hopefully he'll be able to play in Kane County next year, with a full time gig. We'll see what he can do.
My main sleepers are:
Jason Ray
Gregorio Petit
Anthony Recker
Jared Lansford
Also, someone who didn't make the list, primarily on lack of information, is Ramon Alvarado. Taken from the A's academy in the Dominican Republic, he OPS'ed 909 in rookie league. 5 tool type, sort of like Alexi Ogando but younger (age is undisclosed though)
Sorry for the length of this post. Also, since i'm a homer, feel free to take (if you think so) down my grades a notch for half these players. A notch being from like B+ to a B.
by ohad on Feb 2, 2006 5:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good Comments Given
Recker doesn't deserve to be on the list at all. I've never figured out all the AN hype on this guy. It's probably because he has a cute butt or something silly like that. There is no way he is near a legit prospect at this point like the following players are: C Landon Powell, SP James Shull, SP Brad Knox, OF Ramon Alvarado, SP John Rheinecker, 3B Brad Snyder, OF Brian Stavisky, SS Justin Sellers or even 1B Brant Colamarino. I have Recker at about 40th, behind lower upside guys like C Jeremy Brown, RP Shawn Kohn, RP Connor Robertson, RP Ron Flores, and SP Mike Madsen.
Overall it is a very well thought out list. The main difference between our lists is I have many of the top hitters above the high school arms. Robnett, Putnam, and Suzuki appear on my list before Italiano and company.
by LizardKing51 on Feb 2, 2006 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
can understand the Robnett
I put Recker there because i asked Jim Callis on a chat and he said he had amazing raw power potential. He's young too.
Justification over the players you listed:
Landon Powell-I wanted to put him, but he's already 23-24 and missed a full season. You could go with him though.
James Shull, Justin Sellers, Colamarino, Knox, Rheinecker and Snyder are all guys who IMO are in the 20-30 range. Not the upside, though i like Sellers. Knox has just been disappointing. I like Rhino but he's coming off that horrific injury as well.
Alvarado: I mentioned him, but there is not enough info. I definitely think he will shoot up to the top 10 next year.
I basically went with the upside on Recker. Nothing to do with the ass, i'm a guy.
by ohad on Feb 3, 2006 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't alluding to you
I don't see Recker having the power potential of Powell. I think every one of the guys you mentioned belong in the 20-30 range have considerably more upside than Recker.
Recker hit significantly below the league average last year in SS A ball. He is almost a non-prospect to me until he can hit significantly better than .233/.315/.387/.702
I think Knox played pretty well last year coming off of injury, and Alvarado was one of the top 5 hitters in his rookie ball league. Alvarado hit .296/.412/.497/.909 and has more professional experience than Recker at this point, though at a level below Recker.
Shull was maybe the most dominating starting pitcher in his league with a 2.47 ERA, 81 K, 10 BB, 65 H, in 73 Innings.
Rheinecker and Colamarino have put up excellent numbers in the upper levels.
Snyder and Powell are first round picks who were injured all last year, but have never played poorly in the minors at any level (unlike Recker) and both should be totally healthy to start next season.
by LizardKing51 on Feb 3, 2006 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm aware of who the rest are
by ohad on Feb 4, 2006 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Herrera
What is his batspeed like? Does he make consistent contact? Does he hit the ball to all fields or is his power principally from pulling the ball.
Not sure if you know these but can't blame me for asking.
by pedrophile on Feb 6, 2006 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
replying to previous comment
by Isisaston on Dec 9, 2006 6:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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