2007 Oakland Athletics Prospects

by John Sickels on Dec 21, 2006 1:50 AM EST in News

Travis Buck, OF, Grade B+ (Ethier comparison looks valid to me)
Daric Barton, 1B, B (hurt by injury, but what about his power and defense?)
Matt Sulentic, OF, B (I really, really believe in his bat)
Jermaine Mitchell, OF, B- (good tools, speed, developing skills)
Kurt Suzuki, C, B- (a personal favorite)
Kevin Melillo, 2B, B- (I overrated him last year but I still think he will be a useful player)
Trevor Cahill, RHP, B- (Raw but projectable and promising)
Javier Herrera, OF, C+ (Injury casualty, great tools but skills?
Marcus McBeth, RHP, C+ (Needs a bit more polish but quite intriguing)
Jason Windsor, RHP, C+ (needs a bit more fastball but quite intriguing)
Jeff Baisley, 3B, C+ (will jump to Double-A in '07 and we'll find out if he is for real. I personally think he is)
Ryan Goleski, OF, C+ (assuming his wrist is OK)
Craig Italiano, RHP, C+ (immense potential if healthy)
Chad Lee, RHP, C+ (live arm from '06 draft)
Shane Keough, OF, C+ (good athlete from '06 draft, mom was in ZZ Top videos and Playboy)
Michael Mitchell, RHP, C+ (interesting reliever)
Cliff Pennington, INF, C+ (another injury casualty, I will cut him some slack)
Santiago Casilla, RHP, C (could still be useful bullpen arm)
Shane Komine, RHP, C (swingman type)
Richie Robnett, OF, C (great tools but skills haven't developed)

Others of Note: Andrew Bailey, RHP; Jeremy Brown, C; Scott Deal, RHP; Jay Marshall, LHP; Vincent Mazzaro, RHP; Dan Meyer, LHP; Scott Moore, RHP; Donnie Murphy, 2B; Landon Powell, C; Danny Putnam, OF; Jason Ray, RHP; Connor Robertson, RHP; Justin Sellers, SS; Vasili Spanos, 3B.

The Athletics In One Sentence: This system has thinned out, and it will be very interesting to see how they approach their draft strategy over the next year or two, if they continue to mix in high-ceiling high school types with the more polished collegians.

Injuries took a major toll on this system last year, impacting several players who could have earned higher grades if healthy.

ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.

There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.

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Comments

Shane Keough

I wonder how many people reading this are going to Google image his mom...

by HelloGoodBye on Dec 21, 2006 1:53 AM EST 0 recs

I will

as soon as you give me her name.

by The Colonel on Dec 21, 2006 2:02 AM EST up 0 recs

Jenna Keough

was on some tv show.

by toonsterwu on Dec 21, 2006 2:04 AM EST up 0 recs

nothing on google with that name

nothing on imdb. guess i'll google Lima's wife in the meantime...

by The Colonel on Dec 21, 2006 2:11 AM EST up 0 recs

her name

Jeana Tomasino

by HelloGoodBye on Dec 21, 2006 2:16 AM EST up 0 recs

ahh

didn't know about her past, uh, work.

by toonsterwu on Dec 21, 2006 2:26 AM EST up 0 recs

yuk

http://www.bravotv.com/Real_Housewives/Bios/Jeana.shtml

by natsfan2005 on Dec 21, 2006 4:38 AM EST up 0 recs

Appropriate?

That her picture is next to the "All Madden Team" ad.

by stjp5 on Dec 21, 2006 8:42 PM EST up 0 recs

She looks like Joanie Laurer, formerly CHYNA in

her WWF days.

by theblackpearl on Dec 22, 2006 2:07 PM EST up 0 recs

Well

since I didn't know who she was, I just did google it. eh.

As for the A's, while I knew their system had thinned out on account of graduations and other factors, still somewhat surprising to see it on paper. Hadn't thought about it in awhile.

by toonsterwu on Dec 21, 2006 2:03 AM EST up 0 recs

Will John run a Prospect Mom Cheesecake feature?

Seems like the logical thing to do.

by asinwreck on Dec 21, 2006 7:34 AM EST up 0 recs

re

I assume you just missed Lansford. K/BB wasn't there, but his stuff is still great and he did have a 2.86 ERA at Kane County (can't imagine you're giving any weight to the 11 innings in Stockton.) C+? He only gave up 1 home run in 104 innings. If home runs allowed really are a better indicator of future success than even K/BB, as the recent studies have shown, then you have to like the guy at least a little.

You didn't cut the A's any slack this year, but McBeth and Windsor are the only grades I'd argue. Windsor is the new Aaron Harang. And I bet the A's will give him about the same chance they did Harang. 4/1 K/BB and over 1K/inning in the PCL; that's not at least a B-? McBeth has the numbers and the scouts love him.

If Cahill is throwing 94 as reported, he's a breakout candidate.

A's need to completely overhaul their training philosophy, organizationally. The injury rates are too absurd to ignore, rookie ball to the majors.

by bootsy on Dec 21, 2006 2:20 AM EST 0 recs

injuries just killed this system

no mention of lansford, jukich,leslie,webb, and boyd. all were in Aball but had their moments. limited upside perhaps? were they considered at all??

aso A's have an interesting group of relievers like mcbeth, mitchell, robertson,etc. any reason you liked litchell better than robertson? mitchell has a better fastball, but robertson dominated in AA all season. i'd bump mcbeth to at least a B, 95+mph fastball, plus plus changeup. wouldnt surprise me if he's up in oakland by next season

by rayver723 on Dec 21, 2006 3:13 AM EST 0 recs

lansford

I will probably put lansford in the book.

by John Sickels on Dec 21, 2006 9:35 AM EST up 0 recs

Too Harsh on Barton

He was hurt and had a bad year.
Still, he was 20 at AAA.

Showed doubles power at AA and has always had incredible strike zone judgment.

I think that you will eat crow on this one if it stays a B.

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Dec 21, 2006 3:36 AM EST 0 recs

I really like Herrera a lot...

if he can bounce back from his injury. He's stil quite young and has all the tools. He reminds me of Vernon Wells.

by Havok1517 on Dec 21, 2006 4:06 AM EST 0 recs

Herrera

The year lost from injury and the steriods incidents make rating Herrera tricky, but he certainly has as much potential as anyone in the A's system. I think you could make a case for B-, but a C+ is fair given the questions.

by djgt1979 on Dec 21, 2006 5:36 AM EST up 0 recs

Herrera

Too much talent for a C+, I think he should be AT LEAST a B- because of injuries. Once he has a good season the grade will go up to a B+.

by cangrejero51 on Dec 21, 2006 10:54 AM EST up 0 recs

I dunno

Suzuki seems like he should be a solid B to me. A pretty good defensive catcher with a .103 IsoD and a .283/.386/.430 career line (and very consistent at every stop.

by limozeen on Dec 21, 2006 10:03 AM EST 0 recs

Suzuki a B

I agree. I'd say actually that a B is the low end in light of his fine defence. Russ Martin was a B prospect a couple of years ago, and I think that Suzuki is at least even with Martin. Suzuki probably has a modest defensive edge.

by Mike Green on Dec 21, 2006 10:40 AM EST 0 recs

Oakland

Barton had one good month, one bad month before getting injured. His lack of power is worrisome, I'm still hoping for 20 HR power to develop over the next two years.

Sulentic and Mitchell both had promising debuts, I really like both of these guys. I agree with limozeen about Suzuki, I think he's a B. He's been consistent at every stop, and has great control of the strikezone. Melillo is a good hitter at 2B, but if he can't handle it defensively and has to move to LF, I don't think he'll have much of an impact.

Marcus McBeth is more a B- in my mind. The guy is 26, but this was only his second year as a pitcher after coming in from the OF. He improved dramatically over the previous year, has a 3.25 K/BB rate and averaged 10.77 K/9. I think he could be in the bigs in 2008 for sure, possibly after the break in 2007. Connor Robertson is another reliever I think is rated too low. He's at least a C+, and I'd put him ahead of Casilla. He had a 4.40 K/BB rate in AA and averaged 10.43 K/9. I think he and McBeth could replace Duke and Calero as the setup men in 2008 or 2009 for good, or one of them could replace Street if he's traded down the road.

Lansford needs to up the K rate and cut the walks, but I think he will be ok. He managed to keep himself out of too much trouble, even with all of the walks. I think he should be a C+ probably. Windsor's a guy I'm not completely sold on, I'm afraid he's going to be a long reliever at best. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Dec 21, 2006 11:44 AM EST 0 recs

I agree almost completely

with everything you've said here.

by grover on Dec 21, 2006 1:36 PM EST up 0 recs

Bias

I notice the Mets got a lot less time in the spotlight than other farm systems...

by ian on Dec 21, 2006 12:24 PM EST 0 recs

brad knox?

he threw 162 innings at a sub 4.00 era in the texas league. it looks like he struggled against LHB, which could be a sign that he needs to improve his changeup, but against righties, he was very solid.

could he be on the cory lidle career path? doesn't he at least deserve mention in the book?

it's a bad strategy to base your lineup on the relative beauty of a man's outs rather than the rate at which he makes them.

by overlord on Dec 21, 2006 1:09 PM EST 0 recs

Knox

My biggest concern with Knox is the rise of his walk rate (2.74 to 3.45) and the decline in his K rate(7.50 to 5.57). If this is a one year anamoly, I think he'd be at least an option at the backend of a rotation. If it stays like it is, I don't think he has more than long reliever as his future.

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Dec 21, 2006 1:15 PM EST up 0 recs

but if you look at his splits,

his career K and BB rate are very similar to his K and BB rate vs. RHB. its versus LHB where his K rate is cut by about 33% and his bb rate doubles to the point where they are near identical.

it's a bad strategy to base your lineup on the relative beauty of a man's outs rather than the rate at which he makes them.

by overlord on Dec 21, 2006 1:20 PM EST up 0 recs

Close

His career walk rate is similar to his walk rate in AA this year vs. RHB, but his K rate in AA vs. RHB was down to 6.12 K/9, which is down almost 1.5 K/9. That's a big drop. I could live with 5.5-6 K/9 if he gets the walks down to 2-2.5 BB/9. If he does that, then yeah he could have a Lidle like career, which I'd be happy with. Until the walk rate overall is down, he's going to struggle against better competition.

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Dec 21, 2006 1:47 PM EST up 0 recs

Suzuki a "B"

Here's a link to hardballtimes that shows Suzuki to be the best gun in the minor leagues.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/minor-league-guns/

He doesn't have a ton of power but he's had more BB than K's the last two years. He also cut his errors from 15 in 2005 to 2 in 2006.

by grover on Dec 21, 2006 1:45 PM EST 0 recs

By the way...

Thanks, John!

by grover on Dec 21, 2006 1:46 PM EST 0 recs

susuzki looks like a solid comparison

to russ martin...on the high end maybe a jason kendall/paul loduca

solid B sounds about right. solid hitter, great obp skills, and improved his defense

by rayver723 on Dec 21, 2006 1:52 PM EST 0 recs

Huh?

Are you saying that Suzuki could be Russ Martin if everything goes right, otherwise he will only be Kendall or Loduca? I think so, because otherwise it makes no sense.

Martin Line was:

.282, .355, .436 with really good defense as a rookie 22 year old

LoDuca's Career line is:

.290, .341, .419 with really average defense with all of his playing time in his late 20s and early 30s.

Kendall last year, admittedly he has declined from all star status was:

.295, .367, .342

Frankly I would take Martin over either LoDoca or Kendall, he is a better player now, and only likely to have a better career than LoDuca for sure and a good bet to be better than Kendall.

by ssjames on Dec 21, 2006 3:23 PM EST up 0 recs

Meyer

Will this guy ever be a prospect again? This season was basically a mirror of last year's.

Is it still shoulder problems, or has it turned into a mental thing? I remember when he was with the Braves and just lights-out. A- prospect two years ago.

by cinqua on Dec 21, 2006 2:00 PM EST 0 recs

Shoulder

He had what was called an impingement in 2005, and was shut down with the thinking that rest would fix things. He was shut in 2006 with the same issue, and it was found that he had a piece of loose bone in his shoulder that was removed this summer. I'm not expecting a ton from him, but I think he could still end up being a 5th starter at worst.

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Dec 21, 2006 2:10 PM EST up 0 recs

Sulentic vs Rowell and Travis Snider

A bit surprised that Rowell and SNider were rated that mich higher than Sulentic.

by novaoakland on Dec 21, 2006 2:22 PM EST 0 recs

sulentic

I think its because Sulentic is physically smaller. That is why I heard scouts rated him lower and is why he was drafted in the 3rd round when he absolutely tore up his HS league. I think he's only 5-10 and something like 170 lbs. Whereas, Rowell is 6-5 and Travis Snider is 6 feet 230 lbs.

I am not saying I necessarily agree with this, but this is what I think.

Giants '08

by z4 landshark on Dec 21, 2006 10:33 PM EST up 0 recs

Size and Slugging is my guess

Rowell had an IsoP of .178 in Rookie Ball and .162 in Short Season, Snider had a .242 IsoP in Rookie Ball, while Sulentic's was .125 in Short Season. Sulentic's .888 OPS in Vancouver is impressive, but it's mostly held up by his .354 average. If he would have hit .300, his OPS would have been .780. Sulentic needs to put on a little weight and/or get stronger and up that slugging percentage/IsoP before he can be in the class of Snider and Rowell.

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Dec 21, 2006 10:46 PM EST up 0 recs

Good points but...

Isn't Short season a tougher league than Rookie. SO You would expect a small drop in SLUG. or ISOP.

by novaoakland on Dec 22, 2006 3:26 PM EST up 0 recs

Ok

Short season is tougher than Rookie ball, which is why Rowell's IsoP dropped from .178 to .162. Snider's numbers would drop some also, but not from .242 down to the .125 that Sulentic put up. I think Sulentic is going to be a fine hitter, but he won't be in the class of guys like Snider and Rowell with such a low IsoP. I didn't mention his IsoD in short season, which is only .055, lower than either Rowell or Snider. Sulentic had a gaudy OPS in short season ball, but it was propped up by his .354 average, an average which isn't sustainable in the bigs. He did improve his walk rate in Kane County, upping his IsoD to .098, but just like in Short Season ball less than 26% of his hits went for extra bases. He has to up the SLG% and his walk rate to be anything more than an average player.

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Dec 22, 2006 3:57 PM EST up 0 recs

well

i have to say i think you're loading way too much weight on specific properties of a small sample size of numbers a high school kid put up in short-season ball and freaking low-A right out of the draft. to me, the fact that the 21-year-olds didn't drop a couple of laser-guided bombs on his command and control centers and fly back to base chatting about last week's episode of '24' while he burned in a field somewhere is impressive enough. everyone who's eyeballed him seems to believe in his all-around hitting approach; the only consistently raised question is his size and power projection.

by wily mo on Dec 22, 2006 4:41 PM EST up 0 recs

Well

How does what you said differ from what I'm saying? I think he's going to be a fine hitter, but his problems right now are size and power. The original question in this line was why Snider and Rowell were rated higher than Sulentic. They're rated higher because they're physically bigger are showing power that Sulentic doesn't have right now. If he increases his SLG% he can be on par with those guys, until he does he's a bit behind them. Sulentic's numbers vs. more advanced competition was impressive, but it was mostly due to his unsustainable batting average. Compare what Sulentic did at age 18 in SS ball vs. what Tabata did in the Sally League at age 18. Tabata's performance was superior, mainly because his numbers were as average dependent as Sulentic's were.

I never said I didn't like Sulentic, nor did I say I don't think he'll work out. I just pointed out the same things you did in your last line.

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Dec 22, 2006 4:51 PM EST up 0 recs

maybe it's just the phrasing.

the way you were talking about how he has to increase his SLG% - while perfectly true, it's not like he's really established any kind of performance level yet. like you say, we're basically making the same point, it just seems like you're basing your comments on the subtleties of his numbers, which i'd file in the "interesting but not especially meaningful" category right now.

thinking about it more, though, you were responding to other people commenting on how good his numbers were, so it's probably a wash and i should stop bugging you.

by wily mo on Dec 22, 2006 7:34 PM EST up 0 recs

Sorry

I guess I took your comment the wrong way. I thought you meant I was pumping up his numbers. They were nice for a kid his age against older competition, but not enough AB's to really matter. We both had the same point.

I guess I was still in the same mode from the Dayton Moore thread, where a guy would read about two words of my posts then try and tell me what I said. I thought you were doing the same. My apologies, I was a little off base.

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Dec 22, 2006 7:53 PM EST up 0 recs

Yeah but

The parks in the Pioneer league are much more power-friendly than those in the Appy League, and the NYP League is probably the most pitcher-friendly league in the minors.

by Brickhaus on Dec 23, 2006 4:50 AM EST up 0 recs

Thinking a little more

Connor Robertson deserves a spot in the top 20 ahead of Casilla.

2.80 ERA 83.2IP 73H 1HR 22/97 BB/K in AA is getting it done. He was old for his level but so was Casilla. Robertson had one bad outing in the AFL, giving up 5 ER in 2/3 of an inning. Other than that his numbers are very good.

Besides, Casilla had to shut it down in June because his shoulder was bothering him and he only managed one appearance in Winter Ball this year so he may still be hurting. I'd rather you didn't use a spot on a guy who may not even be ready to go come Spring.

by grover on Dec 21, 2006 3:38 PM EST 0 recs

Slight correction

A different source says Casilla has made more than 1 appearance in Winter League, but the results are ugly.

6 ER on 8 hits and 8 walks in 5.2 IP. 7 K's but a WHIP near 3.

<yech!>

by grover on Dec 21, 2006 11:32 PM EST up 0 recs

buy low on Danny Putnam

The A's have a great hitting park in AA for Putnam to have a huge comeback year. Look for a .290-25-100 with 70 walks in 2007

Join the 1st ever GM Instructional League. You control a fantasy franchise with a full minor league farm system.

by GMIL on Dec 21, 2006 4:19 PM EST 0 recs

who cares?

you're saying he's going to comeback because he'lll play in a great hitters' park that willl artificially inflate his numbers?

does not ocmpute

by scooter on Dec 22, 2006 9:30 AM EST up 0 recs

Robertson

I think Robertson is probably one of the top 5 relief prospects in the minors, and his stuff seems to have held up well at AA this past year. He never gives up the long ball, and his k rate was excellent in the Texas league. He's the best setup guy in the A's system, and I agree that he may well end up supplanting Duke or Calero by the end of 2007, or at least helping them along. He's a top 10 A's prospect on my list.
JAS

by jasvlm on Dec 21, 2006 6:33 PM EST 0 recs