2007 Cleveland Indians Prospects
2007 Cleveland Indians Prospects
- Adam Miller, RHP, Grade A- (proved he was healthy after rough '05)
- Chuck Lofgren, LHP, A- (power lefty is developing rapidly, is A- too high?)
- Brian Barton, OF, B+ (only negative is age, but I love his tools, skills, statistics, intelligence, and work ethic)
- John Drennen, OF, B (will need some time but his bat is promising)
- Brad Snyder, OF, B (Jeromy Burnitz Part Two)
- Wes Hodges, 3B, B (One of my favorite bats from '06 draft)
- Trevor Crowe, OF, B- (good speed, patience makes him a good leadoff guy)
- Tony Sipp, LHP, B- (power lefty for the bullpen should be ready soon)
- David Huff, LHP, B- (polished finesse lefty should move quickly)
- Edward Mujica, RHP, B- (underrated bullpen arm deserves attention)
- Max Ramirez, C, B- (I love his bat, but his glove is shaky)
- Scott Lewis, LHP, C+ (awesome numbers, but what kind of durability does he have?)
- Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, C+ (very young, good glove, still might hit but was rushed to Triple-A)
- Tom Mastny, RHP, C+ (not spectacular stuff but his numbers rule)
- Matt McBride, C, C+ (good glove but want to see him hit at higher levels)
- Generalissimo Ben Francisco, OF, C+ (Solid, does a lot of things well but doesn't get much notice)
- Rafael Perez, LHP, C+ (another bullpen lefty with a good arm)
- Brian Slocum, RHP, C+ (swingman/fourth starter type)
- Jensen Lewis, RHP, C+ (swingman/fourth starter type)
- Josh Rodriguez, INF, C+ (another favorite from 2006 draft)
The Indians in One Sentence: This system has considerable depth, with two top pitching prospects and many interesting hitters, which is good considering the highly-competitive nature of the American League Central.
The Indians need pitching. Miller will be ready very soon, and Lofgren could be outstanding if he continues to build on the progress he made last year. After them the pitching depth tails off in terms of impact talent, although there are many potential contributors. The large numbers of solid hitting prospects available gives them some parts to trade if they want to go that route.
ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.
There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.
And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.
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82
comments
Comments
Aubrey
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Dec 19, 2006 11:04 AM EST 0 recs
back
by John Sickels on
Dec 19, 2006 11:28 AM EST
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Aubrey
by jaguar2490 on
Dec 20, 2006 1:03 PM EST
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Can I get some Head?
by cooper7d7 on Dec 19, 2006 11:17 AM EST 0 recs
BABIP
by cooper7d7 on
Dec 19, 2006 12:38 PM EST
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General question...
Josh Rodriquez prompted this question, as well as Chris Valaika.
by cooper7d7 on Dec 19, 2006 11:20 AM EST 0 recs
yes
by John Sickels on
Dec 19, 2006 11:28 AM EST
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Thank you!
by cooper7d7 on
Dec 19, 2006 12:34 PM EST
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Lofgren
by the pinstripes on Dec 19, 2006 11:26 AM EST 0 recs
I agree that he should be a B+
I think he is deserving of a B+ for what he has shown so far.
You gave Patton and Adenhart B+'s and do you think Lofgren is a step above both of them?
Just a couple thoughts.
by grozzy on
Dec 19, 2006 11:40 AM EST
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Lofgren
by the pinstripes on
Dec 19, 2006 1:19 PM EST
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Lofgren
What's a guy gotta do?
And a ceiling as a #2 starter is nothing to be ashamed of....especially depending on who the #1 is.
by Chiefroy on
Dec 19, 2006 2:42 PM EST
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#2
he might be your #5 starter. but that's different.
by wily mo on
Dec 19, 2006 2:58 PM EST
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re: #2
In any case we're still only talking about no more than 40 guys in the majors who are legitimate #1s or #2s. And those guys have graduated from prospect status over the course of the last 15-20 years. So in a top 100, fewer than 5 are likely to become a 1 or 2. So if someone legitimately believes Lofgren will reach #2 status and maintain it - then he's absolutely an A-.
by TC Chris on
Dec 19, 2006 4:03 PM EST
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If Brandon Webb was my #5 starter.....
Liriano's not a #1....or is he?
Elarton pitches on opening day, now Meche is the ace of the staff....Lofgren might make #1 on that team....it's all relative. Who ARE the #1s....the top starter on each team, or the top 30 pitchers based on ERA, wins, some other stat, or simply someone's opinion? Is the number 30 too many?
Separating the true #1's from the #2's or worse is very difficult, even at the major league level.
Sure, we know there are a few GREAT ones, but after those, it's not so simple.
Deciding that some guy in high A ball will top out as a #2 starter(whatever that may be) seems extremely precognitive, or else someone's just trying to guess....which is what I think "the pinstripes" was doing. I'll go ahead and guess that Lofgren wins a Cy Young and makes the HOF......while he's still with Cleveland of course.
by Chiefroy on
Dec 19, 2006 9:16 PM EST
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meche ace
no, it's not. that's kind of my whole point. see my "#1 / #2 / #3 starter" diary (top of the recent diary list at the moment) for a massive discussion of this topic.
by wily mo on
Dec 19, 2006 9:26 PM EST
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I see your diary.......
But otherwise, if we don't limit it to the "obvious" seven, it still looks pretty hard deciding who's a #1(obvious or not so obvious) or a #2...or #3. You yourself used a lot of question marks. There are no definite requirements to make this Top Tier; it's certainly not based on salary. It seems everyone has an opinion, with no real consensus, except for the few.
If a guy makes it to a #2, then he MAY actually make it to a #1....or already be one. There is no set of rules for being labeled a #1 starter, except where in the rotation your team pitches you.....you should be better than the guy at #2, but maybe not. Even if there WERE certain, set standards of a #1 or a #2 starter, it's very unlikely ANYONE can accurately say that Chuck Lofgren, who has only just pitched high A ball and is only 20 years old, will top out as a #2. It's simply a GUESS.....but a person's gotta right to an opinion. I just find it ridiculous to make such guesses.
the pinstripes comment that Lofgren was not on the same level as Adenhart was my main gripe, but deciding who's a #1 or #2 is tough enough with major leaguers, much less projecting minor leaguers. Why not say he has "front of the rotation potential", or is a possible "back of the rotation guy", rather than say "his ceiling is as a #2, imo"?
This kind of a #2 starter?
#1 or #2?
Mark Prior (pitches like a #1 when he pitches, which is never)
Rich Harden (same basic issue)
Pedro Martinez (same - is it over?)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (is he or isn't he?)
Roger Clemens (does half a season of #1 make you a #2?)
Brandon Webb
Scott Kazmir
John Smoltz
CC Sabathia
Jeremy Bonderman
John Lackey
Barry Zito
Curt Schilling
#1 or #4?
Daniel Cabrera
John Patterson
Bartolo Colon
Oliver Perez
Randy Johnson
#2
Josh Beckett
AJ Burnett
Dan Haren
Bronson Arroyo
Mike Mussina
Jason Schmidt
Aaron Harang
Dontrelle Willis
Brett Myers
Andy Pettitte
Chris Young
baby #2s or baby #1s?
Jered Weaver
Erik Bedard
Scott Olsen
Ervin Santana
Brandon McCarthy
Matt Garza
Jon Papelbon
Jon Lester
Anthony Reyes
Rich Hill
#2 or #3?
Chien-Ming Wang
Kelvim Escobar
Derek Lowe
Brad Penny
Freddy Garcia
Tim Hudson
Mark Buehrle
Kevin Millwood
Javier Vazquez
Zach Duke
Jeff Francis
baby #2s or baby #3s?
Josh Johnson
Chuck James
Tom Gorzelanny
I personally don't know WHAT Lofgren's ceiling is, and won't pretend to know. Here's hoping he finds a lot of headroom.
by Chiefroy on
Dec 19, 2006 11:14 PM EST
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sure
please, please stop talking about "where in the rotation your team pitches you". the entire purpose of my huge diary, in case it wasn't clear, is to kill that line of thinking. being a #1 or #2 has nothing to do with what other pitchers happen to be on your team. when evaluating prospects, it is a shorthand expression for how good of a pitcher you are, and that's all.
could lofgren develop into a #1? sure, anthing's possible. curt schilling might grow ten feet and add 15 mph to his fastball next year. we don't know. it'd make a lot of people suspicious. but you can't rule it out 100%. but you can look at lofgren, and look at adenhart, and see how fast they throw, how tall they are, how good their secondary pitches are, what numbers they've put up, and compare all that information to other pitchers from the past, and come to a best judgment about how they project. that's all john or the rest of us ever do.
oh and lofgren can't touch adenhart. pwned!
by wily mo on
Dec 19, 2006 11:25 PM EST
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I can say with absolute certainty ...
As for the above list, Schmidt, Willis, Beckett, and Mussina are all No. 1's. Only in a fairytale world of a $120-million-plus payroll could any of those pitchers be the second best pitcher on staff.
by StickRat on
Dec 20, 2006 12:15 AM EST
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Thanks bud
by casejud on
Dec 23, 2006 1:27 AM EST
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Very Agressive Grade
Lofgren certainly could make an A- look like a genius move.
by wildthang on
Dec 19, 2006 7:23 PM EST
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Comparisons
But I think the cross-player comparisons is the biggest issue here.
If a number of similar prospects, such as Troy Patton, are rated B+ then I think you're obliged to explain what sets Lofgren apart from him in the book. You might have very good reasons for that and it would be interesting to read about. This is an even bigger task, however, when describing the two-grade difference between similar guys like Crowe and Ellsbury.
by FI on
Dec 19, 2006 10:15 PM EST
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Position.
by abbreviatedman on
Dec 20, 2006 10:14 PM EST
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crowe
He only projects as a leftfielder because the Indians have Sizemore in centerfield already.
by FI on
Dec 22, 2006 9:47 AM EST
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Lofgren just doesnt belong with the other A- guys
Adam Miller
Hunter Pence
Cameron Maybin
Andrew Miller
Jay Bruce
Adam Lind
Travis Snyder
Troy Tulowitzki
Justin Upton
Jose Tabata
Matt Garza
Billy Butler
Luke Hochevar
I would take pretty much every singe one of those players over Lofgren, with the possible exception of Snyder... Adenhart stands out to me as well, but there are others...
When I look at this list I dont think Lofgren stands out like a sore thumb or anything, but I would say the players on list are a notch above him. I like Lofgren a lot, but the list above is guys who have been dominant past the low minors, or had extremely high expectations and have so far done nothing to discourage them in short season, etc... Most of these players are more proven than Lofgren, and Lofgren simply hasn't seperated himself from other, similar guys at his level to the point where he merits inclusion.
by alskor on
Dec 19, 2006 11:43 PM EST
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john may have a reason
he does ask "is this too high" in the writeup, which implies that it's a pretty shaky A-, as A-es go.
personally i agree that A- seems oddly high for lofgren, and i'm going to be pissed if he proves out the A-, because i traded him two weeks ago.
but i'll wait for the book to come out and see what it says. maybe there's a reason.
by wily mo on
Dec 19, 2006 11:59 PM EST
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Well
I just dont think the Lofgren grade stands up to any test of consistency when compared to his other A- players... and also when we look at the B+ guys, who seem to be more worthy of an A-, like Adenhart... I dont want to go case by case, b/c that's really where I would defer to his discretion. I just look at the other A-s and Lofgren seems to be out of place...
Im sure he has a reason for the grade, but he puts them up here for feedback, and isnt beyond changing them before the book comes out... look at the Twinkies ratings.
by alskor on
Dec 20, 2006 12:10 AM EST
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you've got a point.
by wily mo on
Dec 20, 2006 1:13 AM EST
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makeup?
or maybe it's something else. Just sharing one possibility.
by FI on
Dec 22, 2006 9:49 AM EST
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I'd say B+
by toonsterwu on
Dec 20, 2006 6:29 AM EST
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Lofgren/Drennan
As for Drennan, he has an unbelievably sweet swing and he will be an outstaning hitter in the show in a couple of years. He will shoot even higher up the charts in the future.
by ChiefWahooVol on
Dec 19, 2006 6:21 PM EST
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Lofgren, B+
by StickRat on
Dec 19, 2006 8:59 PM EST
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Barton
by odo31 on Dec 19, 2006 11:33 AM EST 0 recs
Prospect Book
by igreen01 on Dec 19, 2006 11:33 AM EST 0 recs
book
by John Sickels on Dec 19, 2006 12:01 PM EST 0 recs
Drennen
by DocNo on Dec 19, 2006 12:05 PM EST 0 recs
Barton / Drennen / Crowe
by gunkdog on Dec 19, 2006 12:33 PM EST 0 recs
While you're at it...
by ManchildinBeantown on
Dec 19, 2006 12:51 PM EST
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Same here
by Rayman on
Dec 19, 2006 1:07 PM EST
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crowe
by yoshimi on
Dec 19, 2006 4:17 PM EST
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Some thoughts
by Rayman on Dec 19, 2006 1:06 PM EST 0 recs
changes I'd make
Sipp and Crowe -- both up a notch to B. Sipp maybe even B+. He has dominated at every level, and really does have power stuff. The kid will be in the Cleveland bullpen in 2007. Crowe had figured out AA before the ankle injury slowed him in August. I think he'll show more power than you think.
Drennen hasn't done enough yet to warrant a B so I'd take him down to B- or C+ just to be conservative. Snyder simply isn't showing enough power for me to overlook the massive amout of Ks, so I'd knock him down to C+. Do you really think he'll make contact in the majors?
I also think JD Martin should be in that top 20, at least ahead of Jensen Lewis. Martin is only a year older and he'd already mastered AA (IMO) before the TJ surgery. And it'll be 18 months since the surgery when ST rolls around.
I'm starting to sound like indiansfan so I'll shut up now.
by mrich on Dec 19, 2006 1:12 PM EST 0 recs
Lofgren's numbers
by siddfynch on Dec 19, 2006 1:22 PM EST 0 recs
Marte
by ZackAttack on Dec 19, 2006 1:23 PM EST 0 recs
Snyder
by APV on Dec 19, 2006 1:38 PM EST 0 recs
questions
by John Sickels on Dec 19, 2006 1:41 PM EST 0 recs
JD Martin
by dbhollister on Dec 19, 2006 1:45 PM EST 0 recs
Rodney Choy Foo?
by acr on Dec 19, 2006 1:49 PM EST 0 recs
Really surprised
by Fundamentals on Dec 19, 2006 1:52 PM EST 0 recs
Barton
he seems like a Mike Cameron to me..
any insight?
by odo31 on Dec 19, 2006 3:02 PM EST 0 recs
Mike Cameron Crazy
by cooper7d7 on
Dec 19, 2006 3:20 PM EST
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i dont knwo
by odo31 on
Dec 19, 2006 3:51 PM EST
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Speaking of which,
by siddfynch on
Dec 19, 2006 6:27 PM EST
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yeah
Cameron- took a long time to develop in the minors, is a great defensive OFer, solid discipline, terrible contact rates, solid power.
Young- Pushed through the minors skipping High A, a very good defensive CFer without Cameron's arm, good discipline (better than Cameron), quickly improving contact rates, very good power.
Jones- Rushed through the minors and made his big league debut at age 20 (when Cameron was in Low A), is a better SS than CF (moved out of necesity), has bad discipline, solid contact rates, emmerging power.
In reality, other than body type, skin color, and athleticism, these guys don't have a whole lot in common with Cameron. Especially unfair is Young being constantly compared to cameron, especially since Cameron won't be half the player Young will turn into
by ScottAZ on
Dec 20, 2006 3:56 PM EST
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Man.
Seriously, what is it, the low average and Ks? He's like a lighter-hitting Adam Dunn who actually plays defense at a difficult position.
But I TOTALLY agree with you that the Cameron comps for all these slight black athletes are a bit stupid.
by abbreviatedman on
Dec 20, 2006 10:38 PM EST
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re
I do agree that Cameron is highly underated. I have no idea why he has bounced around so much. He is one of the three top defensive CFers in the game, by all accounts is a team leader and a great club house guy, and brings a solid offensive game despite playing in safeco, Shea, and now Qualcom. Torii Hunter has been a allstar and is one of the faces of baseball, but if Cameron played his career in the Metrodome his numbers would dwarf Hunters'. I'm guessing his homers would shoot up to 30-35 per year
by ScottAZ on
Dec 21, 2006 10:08 AM EST
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Surest thing in the minors
by ssjames on
Dec 21, 2006 1:09 PM EST
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re
Andy Laroche a sure thing? You must be joking. He is a very good prospect, but don't get carried away.
Gordon I agree should be a offensive force, as Buttler should in his own right.
by ScottAZ on
Dec 22, 2006 12:50 AM EST
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where wouldve Rya Goleski ranked?
BA ranked him with the best power/best OF arm in the system. but because "Shady Shapiro" hid the injury reports, maybe he might return
by rayver723 on Dec 19, 2006 3:26 PM EST 0 recs
I'm not sure
by DocNo on
Dec 19, 2006 3:36 PM EST
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high rankings for recent draftees
by drjohnston on Dec 19, 2006 4:05 PM EST 0 recs
Is anyone else worried about Indiansfan
by BIgMax on Dec 19, 2006 5:09 PM EST 0 recs
HOW IN THE ####
The truth lies in between in that both are B grade prospects.
There's NO WAY the separation of grades makes sense. Again, Jacoby hype session in full effect. Check the scouting reports, check the stats.
Besides a small sample size in AA, Crowe has performed just better than Ellsbury every step of the way.
The only thing Ellsbury is better at is defense and Crowe is reportedly a plus defender as well.
I'd also put Crowe up there in the top 4 in the system. Some of the guys ahead of him have very questionable futures.
by youALREADYknow on Dec 19, 2006 5:28 PM EST 0 recs
Hmm...
by drob320 on
Dec 19, 2006 6:43 PM EST
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range
The range stats for major leaguers have their own reliability issues, and for minor leaguers they are more of a novelty than anything else right now. While I do believe Ellsbury is a superior outfielder, Crowe seems very strong and I would question the sanity of anyone who really believes Ellsbury makes 100 more outs per season than Crowe.
by FI on
Dec 19, 2006 10:13 PM EST
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Im still shaking my head...
I dont know how Theo asked that with a straight face.
by alskor on Dec 19, 2006 11:48 PM EST 0 recs
But wait
by Rayman on
Dec 20, 2006 9:29 AM EST
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That's nothing
by ssjames on
Dec 20, 2006 5:12 PM EST
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Overboard
by jaguar2490 on
Dec 20, 2006 8:56 PM EST
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