Pat Neshek HR rate

by doubledribble @ Minor League Ball on Dec 18, 2006 6:04 PM EST

Wow! Nice debut for the young man.
I try to be skeptical when somebody comes in and rolls the league like he did. In looking for flaws, I noticed that he gave up 6 homers in 37IP.
Is anybody concerned about this? Does it have the potential to erode his other numbers a bit and bring him back to earth, or is he going to dominate for the next 3-5 years like he did in '06?

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I'd say fluke

Sidearmers tend to have absurdly low home run rates. While his HR rate wasn't particularly good in the minors, it also wasn't nearly that high. For now, I'll say its a sample size issue.

by Brickhaus on Dec 18, 2006 6:16 PM EST reply actions

fluke possibility

While I agree that his homerun rate may have been a little flukish last year, I think you also have to agree that his hit rate was a bit flukish as well. His h/9 of 5.59 was the lowest he's ever posted as a professional and the .249 BABIP and 97% left on base percentage seem to point to a guy that was getting more than a few breaks go his way.

It will be interesting not only to see if his era stays down, but also if he can keep his peripherals as strong as they were last year. Pitchers don't generally tend to improve their peripherals as they make the jump from AAA but that's exactly what Neshek did and it will be interesting to see if he can keep it up or even improve on them (with a k/bb rate of 8.83 it's tough to see how that's even possible but stranger things have happened).

by neutralluke on Dec 18, 2006 7:25 PM EST reply actions

Needs to improve vs. lefties

I don't have his splits handy, but money says at least 5 of those dingers were against lefties. He needs to improve on that to ever be considered anything more than a righty specialist, he's lights out vs. righties.

by strums on Dec 18, 2006 9:43 PM EST reply actions

Close

Only four, in 12 IP. But those other categories are still pretty remarkable rates overall for a sidearmer's "weak" side:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7792/splits

by Flynn Blake on Dec 18, 2006 9:50 PM EST up reply actions

Neshek

What's also absurd is that without those homeruns, Neshek basically gives up 2 runs over those 37 innings (7 runs came for HR's). The homeruns did kill him a bit, I personally watched most of them and the result was getting a little too excited and as a result the ball got up on him. Since he's a true sidearm pitcher and not a submariner, the ball can do that. He started working on a third pitch that would make him more effective on lefties (for righties it's obviously the slider), if he can find that again he should be devastating. What will be interesting is that most believe he'll close after Nathan. But there's another man with a 100 mph heater out of the bullpen coming up the system, Morlan. Will he be ready or will Neshek be a stop gap?

by caseintheface on Dec 19, 2006 12:34 AM EST reply actions

so

Jesse Crain doesn't even have a shot at the closer job huh?

by playingwithfire on Dec 19, 2006 7:58 AM EST up reply actions

Crain

Crain is a very good pitcher who has learned a lot since coming up. Everyone was scared of his K rate from 2005, but those of us watching him knew he was working on "pitching." As we expected, the K rate climbed, and he really was a better pitcher in 2006 if you can forgive the early-season problems.

That said, none of his pitches are devastating enough for him to be a closer. He throws hard, but not as hard as advertised, something I think results from the Twins pre-occupation with control. Nathan has both (and more). Neshek has control and a couple tough pitches to hit. Crain is a ground ball pitcher (now) who can get you 8 K's per 9, but I just don't see him as a shut down pitcher.

Personally, I think he's a very good pitcher, and while with the Twins will put up great numbers in the set up role. He could close for a lot of teams, but I don't think he'd be great, and the Twinks seem to have pretty high standards there. JMO

by twinstalker on Dec 19, 2006 11:54 AM EST up reply actions

Also

The Twins will have Nathan through 2008, but no way will they afford him in 2009, nor should they try. While they won't find anybody as good, I think they will find somebody for $10 million less than Nathan will cost, at the price of a few saves.

Personally, I think the save opportunities will become less (less than their norm, see 2001-2005) with the Twins as the heart of their lineup becomes a force. Instead of scratching out four runs against a mediocre pitcher, I expect Morneau and Mauer to get significantly better (power-wise and, in Morneau's case, on-base-wise) and blow out a lot of those types. Of course this depends on having some hitters around them...not a given, if you know the Twins, but reasonable with Kubel and Cuddyer.

by twinstalker on Dec 19, 2006 12:04 PM EST up reply actions

Crain

I really like him because he shows great sizes that he's incorperating all the aspects of pitching. While he does that that good fastball, I don't think he's tough enough mentally to close. For most teams he'd be a good fit to close but with the talent we have I think there's better options. Wait for Morlan, he'll be the second coming of Zumaya I think.

by caseintheface on Dec 19, 2006 9:39 PM EST up reply actions

Its the slider

For those who haven't watched him pitch much, Neshek's success is all about the slider. He throws it pretty hard, about 86-87 - so it looks a lot like his fastball which is usually around 92-94.

The action he gets on it is crazy. I've seen plenty of them start on the inside part of the plate and end up on the outside corner. It's almost a perfect lateral break, which most scouts and pitching coaches hate that but it breaks so much... it doesn't matter.

If he adds a circle change that he can fade away from lefties, I really am not sure how anyone is going to hit him.

by alskntwnsfn on Dec 19, 2006 2:43 PM EST reply actions