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2007 Seattle Mariners Prospects

2007 Seattle Mariners Prospects

  1. Adam Jones, OF, B+  (Mike Cameron without the walks. Still young enough to get better than that)
  2. Brandon Morrow, RHP, B+ (I love his arm but he may need more time than most high-profile college pitchers)
  3. Jeff Clement, C, B  (Was rushed and injured last year, but I still like his bat)
  4. Yung-Chi Chen, 2B, B  (I like him more than other people but where does he fit on the roster?)
  5. Tony Butler, LHP, B-  (sleeper from 2006 draft could advance rapidly)
  6. Ryan Feierabend, LHP, B-  (best of the large group of control lefties in the system)
  7. Chris Tillman, RHP, B- (Huge upside but rather raw and will need time)
  8. Eric O'Flaherty, LHP, C+ (should be a very good reliever)
  9. Yorman Bazardo, RHP, C+  (doing well in relief in winter ball)
  10. Anthony Varvaro, RHP, C+ (sleeper prospect recovering from Tommy John surgery, another guy I like more than other people)
  11. Wladimir Balentien, OF, C (have to respect his power and he walked more this year, but .230 in the Texas League=.200 in the majors)
  12. Mark Lowe, RHP, C (Grade B/B+ prospect if healthy, but elbow woes a serious concern for me)
  13. Ryan Rowland-Smith, LHP, C  (took well to relief role, could be a good LOOGY)
  14. Robert Rohrbaugh, LHP, C (another finesse lefty)
  15. Chris Minaker, SS, C (Stanford standout looks like possible steal in 10th round last year)
  16. Justin Thomas, LHP, C (another finesse lefty)
  17. Andrew Barb, RHP, C  (acquired from Phillies, good bullpen arm)
  18. Austin Bibins-Dirkx, RHP, C  (intriguing reliever)
  19. Bryan Lahair, 1B, C  (Brian Daubach type)
  20. Michael Wilson, OF, C  (good power, works hard, strikes out too much)
Others of Note: Nathan Adcock, RHP; Gerardo Avila, 1B; Andrew Baldwin, RHP; Travis Blackley, LHP; Michael Garciaparra, INF; Cesar Jimenez, LHP, Alex Liddi, 3B; Kam Mickolio, RHP; Adam Moore, C; Osvaldo Navarro, INF; Carlos Peguero, OF; Matt Tuiasosopo, INF.

The Mariners In One Sentence: Seattle has no sure-fire can't miss prospects, as even their best guys have a questionmark or two, although Jones and Morrow in particular have impressive upsides if they refine their talents.

Lots of variation with the Grade Cs, depending on what you want to emphasize. The Mariners seem to have a fetish for finesse lefties, and aside from Jones and Clement they don't have a lot of high-ceiling impact position players on the way up.

ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.

There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.

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Wow
that mariners logo is amazingly lame, when was that used?
God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Dec 17, 2006 11:35 AM EST reply actions  

thats an old school logo
Back in the 80's I believe

by goalieguy on Dec 17, 2006 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I love
these retro logos, some of them (like this one) are just plain funny
Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Dec 17, 2006 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

back
when father and son griffey were together lol

by JDSussman on Dec 17, 2006 2:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm a bit surprised
To see LaHair rated so low.  I was expecting him to at least be a C+, or higher on  the list of C players.  Daubach had a few good years.
Hey fish, leave those kids alone!

by The Congo Hammer on Dec 17, 2006 1:17 PM EST reply actions  

I'm fairly certain it's listed as
Yung-Chi Chen.  That's the most frustrating thing about the Vidro deal to me, even though I'm not an M's fan.  I feel as if Chen could put up similar numbers to Vidro next year ... at a much lesser cost while keeping them Snelling/Fruto.  Eh.  Just don't understand Bavasi's move sometimes.

by toonsterwu on Dec 17, 2006 1:29 PM EST reply actions  

I HAVE to comment
Not that I don't ageree with you. I actually havent familiarized myself with Chen yet, I will. BUT I think SNELLING could also do what you say also. I meen, the Mariners have waited for this charismatic hitting machine with the lightning-quick bat through all these injuries and all this time (though he's 25, I believe)and are FINALLY about to start getting the results and then you trade him?? For a 33 year old guy who WAS a good hitter for a 2b... IN HIS DAY....tom play DH? I HATE this move for many reasons most of all because I think I understand the man doing it and he offends me as a baseball fan. If you give up a good young ballplayer it should be for a darned good reason. Ben Broussard, Eduardo Perez,Jose Vidro and a phantom pennant race (last year) are NOT GOOD REASONS! Bill Bavasi, I know you are a desperate man making desperate moves to save your job but NOTHING can escape you from your fate buddy, sorry. We in Seattle hope anyways! The biggest problem with this unfortunate choice to run a once succesfull club is that he doesn't know what a ballplayer looks like so he can only trust PAST statistics and REALLY, they don't mean anything. Snelling is a LOT better player than Jose Vidro and I think most KNOWLEDGABLE people can see that. Oh, by the way Bill, Fruto has a good future too you dummY!!!
casedog

by casejud on Dec 23, 2006 12:54 AM EST up reply actions  

I also like....
Vavaro quite a bit.

He was at St. Johns with Hansen a couple years ago right?

Low to mid 90's fastball, and a hard curveball that could be a plus pitch.

He only had TJ surgery, and its been 2 years (next year) since he had it. He should be healthy and could jump through the minors.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 17, 2006 1:56 PM EST reply actions  

Agreed
on his potential, but isn't it Varvaro?

by BaseballBrain on Dec 17, 2006 3:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I LOVED that pick...
Vavaro was so good in college, getting him cheap was a brilliant draft-move
-peter

by PeterF on Dec 17, 2006 5:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Balentien
I disagree with John's .200 batting average translation. Balentien suffered from a BABIP well below the league average, and his contract rate improved throughout the season (unlike Brandon Wood, and many other highly-touted prospects with problems making contact). There is reason to believe he'll hit above .250 at Tacoma next year.

Balentien certainly doesn't seem like a guy who is ever going to be a .300 hitter, but I was actually encouraged by his improved skills this year.

by FI on Dec 17, 2006 2:16 PM EST reply actions  

Butler
Deserves a solid "B" imo, as long as he can maintain his newfound velocity.  Great pitchers body...

by BaseballBrain on Dec 17, 2006 3:25 PM EST reply actions  

Great to see Butler on this list
Career .444 hitter off Butler in high school, too bad the other 5 ab's were k's.

He pretty much made everyone look silly in high school.

by wibadger on Dec 17, 2006 4:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Nice work
John,

Interesting list.  

I like the high rankings for Butler and Varvaro.  Varvaro in particular could move fast in 2007.

I was a little suprised by how high you ranked guys like Chen, Rowland-Smith, Minaker and Rohrbaugh.  My impression of each of these guys was that they had low ceilings, and weren't likely to be much more than role players or situational relievers.  Do you think that these guys are more than that?  Or is this just a weak system?  

Most of the people who follow the M's system closely are excited about some of the guys at the lowest levels of the system.  Greg Halman - a CFer in the NW league this year - is generating a lot of interest among the M's prospect mavens, but not nearly as much attention in non-team-specific rankings.  He is a toolsy player with a lot of upside, but he missed time this year with a broken hand.  Other guys that people like are Alex Liddi, Gerardo Avila, and Carlos Peguero.  The M's also signed two high-profile international players, SS Carlos Triunfel (D.R.) and OF Mario Martinez (Venezuela), that will be playing in the US next year at age 17.  

Do you have any opinions about these guys, or is it just too early to get a good idea of how they rate against more experienced players?  IMO, I will take a toolsy 17-year-old SS with big upside over Robert Rohrbaugh anyday.  

by Jerry on Dec 17, 2006 6:20 PM EST reply actions  

players
Those 17 year old guys like Triunfel are impossible to grade at this point...I have to see at least some short-season data. If they had even some scouting reports or video out of high school in north american I could put them in, but the guys from other countries are so often overhyped that I tend tend to play conservative on them.

by John Sickels on Dec 17, 2006 6:27 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah
That makes sense.  

Better to be conservative than speculate with little information.  

by Jerry on Dec 17, 2006 6:37 PM EST up reply actions  

One more question
John,

I had one more question for you.  Or, more accurately, a few linked quesitons.  

The M's have been crazy with their promotions lately.  They have guys like Adam Jones, Rob Johnson, Jeff Clement, Matt Tuiasosopo, and most of thier more advanced relievers (O'Flaherty, Lowe, Stephen Kahn, Mickolio, etc) playing at levels far beyond where most organizations would place them.  The promotions of Clement and Tuiasosopo in particular have drawn a lot of criticism.  To me, those promotions made zero sense.  

As a guy who focuses on stats quite a bit, does this type of organizational philosophy make it more difficult to rank prospects?  Someone like Adam Jones is a good example.  He has been rushed through the minors at breakneck speed, and already made his ML debut.  A lot of people point out his lack of plate discipline, but could that simply reflect the fact that he has been playing against far older competition and struggled to cope with aggressive promotions?  I would imagine it would be tough to change your approach at the plate after changing positions and starting AAA at age 20.  If Jones had spent all of 2005 in A+ and all of 2006 in AA (which is where he would have been in virtually any other organization besides Seattle), he probably would have put up gaudy numbers and gotten much more exposure from national prospect pundits.  

Do you take this into account with players who have struggled?  Rob Johnson and Matt Tuiasosopo are good examples of pretty good prospects who struggled after very questionable promotions.  

I was wondering what you take on this is.  Are the M's crazy?  Are they messing up their prospects?  And does their aggressive philosophy result in national prospect authorities undervaluing Mariners prospects?  

by Jerry on Dec 17, 2006 6:36 PM EST reply actions  

Adam Jones
Cameron without the walks.  Isn't that Torii Hunter?

;-)

by dkny22 on Dec 17, 2006 8:57 PM EST reply actions  

Why does Chen's rating level get so mixed?
You list him pretty high, BA listed him at 9, but a lot of the Mariner blog think he's at best a 15-20 guy or worse?

The debate on his defense attribute seems mixed, is he good/bad/horrid ? he looked fine to me in international plays. but some have said his 2B is atrocious?

by RollingWave on Dec 17, 2006 9:47 PM EST reply actions  

My feeling is that
Chen's D is average at 2nd.  I don't think he's nearly as bad as some suggest, but he's definitely not good, to say the least.

by toonsterwu on Dec 18, 2006 6:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Michael Wilson
Michael Wilson is the guy who they drafted out of a high school in Tulsa right? I was surprised to see Mr. Sickels gave the comment that he "works hard". I worked in the Texas League this past summer and got to see him play quite a few games. Every single scout that I talked to, said that he used to be quite a great looking athlete but now he has a "bad body". Nobody knew exactly why that happened (being lazy?)but all of them seemed to think that Wilson was throwing away alot of good talent. That's why I questioned the comment that he "works hard".

by valpoguy7772 on Dec 18, 2006 1:55 AM EST reply actions  

wilson
That's interesting, becaues I'd heard that he had a good work ethic. I will double check my sources on that.

by John Sickels on Dec 18, 2006 2:04 AM EST reply actions  

Greg Halman...
definitely belongs at least on the "other interesting players" list, and probably in the Ms' top 20 (I'd rank him somewhere in the 8-12 range).  He's significantly more advanced than Avila/Peguero/Liddi, he has as much raw power as anyone in the organization, and he's the only one of the group with a chance to stick at a premium defensive position.

I also think you're underrating Justin Thomas's stuff by labelling him a "another finesse lefty."  He pitches in the 89-92mph range with a slider that's at least a potentially average major league pitch.  In the hierarchy of Ms lefties, his stuff's significantly better than that of Robert Rohrbaugh and Ryan Rowland-Smith.

by jhelfgott on Dec 18, 2006 3:14 AM EST reply actions  

Stats say
Not that I'm a big stat guy but if you look compare Cameron and Jones at the same age, their walk rate isn't very divergent.  Like most hitters, discipline is the last thing to come around.

by PolkCountyRay on Dec 18, 2006 9:18 AM EST reply actions  

Bibens-Dirkx
didn't really 'reach AAA' out of college; he came out of school in Portland, and the M's had him pitch one game in nearby Tacoma before reporting to Everett (short-season NWL).   Technically, yes, he pitched in AAA, but he wasn't promoted.
Luis Valbuena played in 3 games in Tacoma at 19 before reporting to Everett in 2005... it seems to be something the M's do when they're in need of a player.    
That said, I think he's an intriguing bullpen prospect.  You can see his sidewinding style in some photos here.

by marc w on Dec 18, 2006 12:20 PM EST reply actions  

Lahair
What's up with the lack of love for Lahair? Dude put up pretty good stats in AA and AAA (309/.381/.474 with 16 home runs and 74 RBIs). He struggled against lefties in AA, hit a little better in AAA. He batted cleanup for the pro team that won the gold medal in Cuba.
He didn't hit as well in the qualifying and championship, .222 with 2 hr's and 9rbis. In the exhibition friendship games before the event, he hit .529 with 3hr's and 7 rbi's. Overall for the pro team he hit .321, with 5hr's, and 16 RBI's in 14 games. He played on the National team in 2005 as well hitting .361 with 3 home runs and 8 RBI's.

by filter on Dec 18, 2006 5:45 PM EST reply actions  

Whoa
That seems a bit high, and I'm an M's fan...

The reason LaHair doesn't get much love is that he's never flashed a lot of power.  As a guy who's only played 1B, that's something of a problem.  Even last year, he showed good plate discipline but so-so slugging in the Texas league, then put up two months and about 150 ABs of .100 ISO slugging in AAA.  Then, in August, he went nuts, with 8HRs and a .786 slg in 56 ABs.  
So the question is, did a light bulb go off, or did he just have a really, really awesome couple of weeks?   I think he belongs on the list, but I can't quibble with John's ranking or notes given that he hasn't shown consistent power throughout his MiLB career.  Yes, his home parks have hurt him, but a quick glance at his AAA stats may be misleading.  I really hope his power surge is real, and he did OK for the national team, so maybe something did click.   But for now, an 11-20 ranking is appropriate.  

by marc w on Dec 20, 2006 2:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Asdrubal Cabrera
Where would he have been on this list had he not been traded to the Indians?

by DocNo on Dec 19, 2006 3:01 AM EST reply actions  

Adam Jones
I don't see the Mike Cameron similarities besides looks.  Cameron's numbers in the minors were just okay, in fact, worse than Jones to date.  Jones has performed really well considering his age vs level.  It's too bad Seattle has completely no idea how to run a organization.  Keep an eye on this guy. One of the most underrated prospects in AL  

by nothingfalls on Dec 19, 2006 2:11 PM EST reply actions  

Word
I couldn't agree more.  

Compare Jones with Chris Young.  Jones has put up similar numbers at the same levels despite doing so while 2 years younger.  

Jones is just as good as Young.  But doesn't get nearly the publicity.  

by Jerry on Dec 19, 2006 6:04 PM EST up reply actions  

i think they're both underrated.
in my list that i sent in for slurve's possibly-doomed ranking project, i had young at #9 (including matsuzaka) and jones at #15, ahead of the likes of braun, pelfrey, mccutchen and carlos gonzalez.  so i like him a lot.  

i do tend to point out at times like this that young has shown significantly more (and still increasing) power than jones.  some of that may be (likely is) the age difference.  but jones has never cracked a .500 slug; young slugged .545, in birmingham, which is a cavern, while skipping a level.  young's ISOd has also been a little more consistent; it's always around .100, whereas jones had a bad OBP in low-A and just an okay one in AAA this year.  

if jones was really putting up similar numbers to young at the same levels 2 years younger, he'd be better than young, not just as good.  but young's numbers are actually somewhat better.  overall they do feel about the same as prospects to me, but somehow i trust young a little bit more just becuase when you project somebody based on age vs. level, usually it happens, but not always.  

we'll see what happens.

by wily mo on Dec 19, 2006 8:48 PM EST up reply actions  

something to chew on
5 best players from each guys' pecota comparables list:

Jones

  • David Wright
  • Adrian Beltre
  • Edwin Encarnacion
  • Robinson Cano
  • Felipe Lopez
Young
  • Willie Mays
  • Barry Bonds
  • Manny Ramirez
  • Andruw Jones
  • Tony Conigliaro
just - i mean, i don't know what it means.  probably nothing.  franklin gutierrez is on there too.  i really like chris young though.  

by wily mo on Dec 19, 2006 11:15 PM EST up reply actions  

What day is it?
Those PECOTA's seem to still judge Jones as a SS, as all of his comps are INFs.  Does PECOTA do that?

by cooper7d7 on Dec 20, 2006 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

that's true, and actually, also
it seems like some guys' pecota comps lists include historical major league players, and some only contain minor league seasons from the last ten years or so, with young obviously falling in the former category and jones the latter.  so the comparison is a bit rigged.  really my point is just that i think chris young is going to be really, really good.  

by wily mo on Dec 20, 2006 5:24 PM EST up reply actions  

ss
speaking of which, does anybody else think it's kind of a shame that jones got moved off shortstop even though he can play it, just because of yuniesky betancourt?  a guy who can hit like him and play shortstop - if he was still a SS he'd probably be a top-ten prospect.  i'd like him better than brignac.

by wily mo on Dec 20, 2006 5:31 PM EST up reply actions  

PECOTA
hasn't been updated for 2006 yet, so Jones' uptick in power this year, his success in AAA at the age of 20, and his move to the OF are all ignored by those PECOTA rankings.

After the 2005 season, Jones looked like a pretty good prospect.  Now he sure as hell looks like an elite (though not quite can't miss) prospect to me.  I'd be pretty surprised if next year's PECOTA doesn't reflect that.

by jhelfgott on Dec 20, 2006 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I live in Seattle
And i was REALLY impressed from what I saw from Adam Jones in the big leagues this past year. Too bad Mike and Bill's season of desperation has banished him from a chance at full time play this year. Oh well, a great year at at AAA? Maybe another stupid trade? I thought he made the sort of quick adjustments (a week or two) at the plate and in center that great athletes make. I cant say if he could have stayed at short and done well in the field there but, I'll say this...he sure LOOKs like a great, natural CF and he hasn't been there long. He COULD actually use a year in Tacoma to learn to play there well.
casedog

by casejud on Dec 23, 2006 12:31 AM EST up reply actions  

RyanFierebend
My first instinct whebn I first say a clip of him in the Cal League was he was okay but you should check him out on MLB.COM if you haven't seen him John ansd everybody. He really looked impressive to me when I saw him last year. I would say he falls in the category of a VERY underated young pitching prospect...control is good, health is good and he has a really good arm! Reminds me of Jeff Francis a bit actually. I think B- is too low IMO...solid B and getting close to a B+ maybe. Let me know what you think at least okay? AFTER you have seen him please if you could.
casedog

by casejud on Dec 23, 2006 12:37 AM EST reply actions  

Cha-Seung Baek
I still don't completely understand why a player like Baek is not considered a prospect. It just seems sillly to me. He pitched all year at AAA except 35 innings or so, pitched about 30 more a couple years ago and is a cantidate to be the 5th starter for the Mariners. i think this PRECISELY the kind of player who is of interest to most people's favorite teams and RIPE for analysis. It gives a scewed version of each teams prospect lists to leave off a player like this. It doesn't make sense to me. I think a player should be considered a prospect for purposes of these rankings until they have AT LEAST completed a year in the major leagues. Just a minor gripe. Love the site, of course. I'd give him a C+, by the way.
casedog

by casejud on Dec 23, 2006 4:21 AM EST reply actions  

I think...
he's exhausted his rookie eligibility.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett

by JY on Dec 23, 2006 3:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, but what I meen is...
It doesn't make any difference if he has exhausted his eligibility. He is still a PROSPECT. Everybody is a prospect except established major leaguers. Know what I meen?
casedog

by casejud on Dec 23, 2006 6:21 PM EST up reply actions  

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