2007 Detroit Tigers Prospects
2007 Detroit Tigers Prospects
- Cameron Maybin, OF, Grade A- (outstanding overall prospect, just needs to cut strikeouts)
- Andrew Miller, LHP, Grade A- (throws hard, usually throws strikes, extreme ground ball pitcher)
- Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP, B- (can hit 100 MPH but still learning how to pitch)
- Jair Jurrjens, RHP, B- (Good arm but will need additional time)
- Gorkys Hernandez, OF, B- (very toolsy, young, strong GCL numbers)
- Jeff Larish, 1B, B- (plenty of power and patience, but is his swing too long?)
- Scott Sizemore, 2B, B- (should hit for average at all levels)
- Brent Clevlen, OF, C+ (which is the real Clevlen? I don't know)
- Jordan Tata, RHP, C+ (Should be an average pitcher in any role)
- Dallas Trahern, RHP, C+ (Good power sinker, low strikeout rate a concern)
- Jonah Nickerson, RHP, C+ (polished college star lacks plus stuff)
- Mike Holliman, SS, C+ (outstanding secondary skills but was old for the level)
- Brennan Boesch, OF, C+ (promising college hitter from '06 draft)
- Ronnie Bourquin, 3B, C+ (promising college hitter from '06 draft)
- Tony Giarratano, SS, C (looks like he'll be a utility guy, health an issue)
- Brett Jensen, RHP, C (throws strikes, projects as middle man)
- Brendan Wise, RHP, C (another ground ball pitcher, a possible sleeper)
- Matt Joyce, OF, C (A-ball performance was disappointing)
- Chris Cody, LHP, C (doesn't throw hard, good command)
- Virgil Vasquez, RHP, C (doesn't throw hard, good command)
The Tigers in One Sentence: This system has two outstanding prospects at the top, but it falls apart quickly after that, depleted by the graduations of Verlander, Zumaya, and Granderson over the last two years.
Not much depth here at all. Tigers hitting prospects have a tendency to strike out a lot. They also have a lot of ground ball pitchers. There are some interesting guys in the '06 draft class, but we need a year to see how they pan out. Once again, the Grade C guys are all interchangeable, so don't get upset if your favorite one is in the "Others of Note" section rather than in the top 20. There is not much difference between the Grade C guys.
ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.
There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.
And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.
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comments
Comments
I agree that hes a very promising prospect but..
According to "www.minorleaguesplits.com" he had this ratio gb/ld/fb ..... 163/25/71. Generally speaking thats 259 balls in play thats a groundball rate of 63%... its very tough to develop power if you do not hit the ball in the air.. Generally speaking power hitters hit signifcantly more fly balls then grounders.
Just for a counter example jay bruce had a split of 143/53/124 for a total of 320 balls in play. So his groundball % was 45%
by jbluestone on Dec 13, 2006 6:49 PM EST 0 recs
Maybin
by ian on
Dec 13, 2006 7:19 PM EST
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Maybin...
High K's, alot of groundballs, high BABIP, and he's not a pitcher.
He's got some skills, he draws walks and plays really good defense, but I think he's nowhere near as good as his raw average and SLG show.
by SenorGato88 on
Dec 13, 2006 11:28 PM EST
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On this site
by VtTigers on
Dec 13, 2006 11:40 PM EST
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Of course he is.....
Beyond the tools and raw numbers, Maybin isn't all that impressive.
by SenorGato88 on
Dec 14, 2006 12:14 AM EST
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Besides tools and raw numbers...
by coochorama on
Dec 14, 2006 3:38 AM EST
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i believe
if he strikes out that much in the FSL he is going to be in big trouble
by bmxstreetrider86 on
Dec 14, 2006 3:46 AM EST
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But
by ian on
Dec 14, 2006 6:17 PM EST
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But
Apr: 25 K/75 AB = .25
May: 5/22 = .23
June: 28/68 = .41
July: 26/101 = .26
A+S: 32/116 = .28
by battlekow on
Dec 15, 2006 12:20 AM EST
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You know
Maybin's stats are scary bad once you get beyond OPS. He hits grounders like Luis Castillo, strikes out like Adam Dunn, and his raw power wasn't incredibly impressive.
I really like Maybin because he's young and he found a way to get it done, but right now he's like a young projectable pitcher who struck out 5 per 9 in A ball but had a sub 3.00 ERA to me. He needs to make a HUGE adjustment if he's going to be successful at higher levels. I don't doubt that he has the raw ability to do that, but there have been a lot of raw ability guys who have fizzled before.
by limozeen on
Dec 14, 2006 3:50 AM EST
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But...
by zdavis2512 on
Dec 14, 2006 5:06 AM EST
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Howard
by battlekow on
Dec 14, 2006 11:38 AM EST
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Well
by ian on
Dec 14, 2006 9:16 AM EST
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Maybin
-- has the tools
-- has the raw numbers
I think too many people view prospects based on the question "What would they do in the Majors right now?" At 19 you can't put that on him. I agree that he is a superior talent, and an A- grade is appropriate. This was his first year with real training--he responded better than anyone could have asked for. Let's see how he does in the higher minors.
by grinch on
Dec 14, 2006 9:48 AM EST
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Well...
He's a power hitter who it groundballs like, people here have said, Louis Castillo.
He K's a ton.
His speed allowed him to have a high BA.
Seriously, it's not like I dislike Maybin. Theres just alot more besides raw numbers in player analylzation, and when you look past it he's not all that impressive.
Maybin is a prospect with alot of things going for him, he's got as good a toolset as you'll find in the minors, and at least he knows how to draw a walk, but that doesn't mean he's flawless. In fact, he's got flaws that override alot of other things for me.
I like him alot less than I like Bruce, Upton, McCuthen, Snider, and alot other guys.
He's overrated right now.
by SenorGato88 on
Dec 14, 2006 12:15 PM EST
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Beyond amazing tools and decent raw numbers.
However people act like he should be a B- prospect at best around here. He is underrated by a lot of people.
I think that John has his ranking just right.
by VtTigers on
Dec 14, 2006 1:02 PM EST
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Well
I have been pretty high on him since he was drafted (and put him in my top 20 AL Central prospects the year he was drafted), but I don't see him as better than Bruce or Upton.
by limozeen on
Dec 14, 2006 1:40 PM EST
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You need to be careful
by MikeE on
Dec 14, 2006 11:25 AM EST
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Yeah but
by battlekow on
Dec 14, 2006 11:39 AM EST
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jordan tata
by WakeboardJock on Dec 13, 2006 7:07 PM EST 0 recs
Tata
by BaseballJonze on
Dec 13, 2006 7:13 PM EST
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Not sure exactly
by mcq fesijiba on
Dec 13, 2006 7:47 PM EST
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Where would the 3 prospects that went
Sanchez, Whelan, etc?
by Bud Light on Dec 13, 2006 7:28 PM EST 0 recs
I'd guess...
by BaseballJonze on
Dec 13, 2006 7:39 PM EST
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De la Cruz
He impressed me enough to peg him AGAIN as a breakout candidate headed into 2007.
by youALREADYknow on Dec 13, 2006 7:32 PM EST 0 recs
De la Cruz
by mcq fesijiba on
Dec 13, 2006 7:50 PM EST
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I agree with Maybin at A- but
by The Congo Hammer on Dec 13, 2006 7:43 PM EST 0 recs
I don't mind the grades...
by BaseballJonze on
Dec 13, 2006 7:49 PM EST
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Hollimon
by mcq fesijiba on Dec 13, 2006 7:58 PM EST 0 recs
Question for John
From what little I know the high ground-ball guys typically have lower K rates then guys swinging for the fences. This makes me feel, without having watched him, that he has serious contact problems.
I'm not worried about his speed or power. I am worried about his ability to consistently make solid contact.
by pedrophile on Dec 13, 2006 8:18 PM EST 0 recs
wtf
by wily mo on
Dec 13, 2006 8:59 PM EST
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LOL
by pedrophile on
Dec 14, 2006 1:08 AM EST
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Gorkys
by gogotabata on Dec 13, 2006 8:21 PM EST 0 recs
Gorkys
by mcq fesijiba on
Dec 13, 2006 9:24 PM EST
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Upton and Maybin both get A- ??
I know Upton is going to be great, but is he going to be great like his brother is great, or great like a good player?
by RatkoVarda2 on Dec 13, 2006 10:21 PM EST 0 recs
A Ball
Justin was learning a new position.
Justin had much better plate discipline but a lower batting average.
Oh, and Justin profiles for much higher upside in the long run.
by pedrophile on
Dec 14, 2006 1:14 AM EST
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Scouting should be more important at this level
Seems like a double standard to me.
by VtTigers on
Dec 14, 2006 1:04 PM EST
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One more thing
The fact that he had any sort of success with that should be viewed as a plus not simply as luck. He has a ton of tools. Will he be able to make them pay off? Thats a story only time will tell. But at this point scouts really like everything they see from him and he seems to be an extremely hard worker to go with those tools.
He has to learn pitch recognition as he goes. Hopefully that will improve.
The other thing that never seems to come up is that he played in a terrible park for hitters and was really hurt by it if you look at his splits.
I am not going to come out and say he should be more than a A- prospect but to act like he shouldn't even be in the overall top 25 like some do around here is over the top.
by VtTigers on
Dec 14, 2006 1:44 PM EST
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Really?
Justin Upton was drafted 1st overall and Maybin a little later. The scouts are much higher on Upton. Yes, scouts love Maybin as well but not in the same class.
And for every time someone says Maybin has better numbers - that is when I talk about GB rates and strikeout rates. I'm not trying to say Maybin had a terrible year and Upton a great one. But I think their year was comparable.
Also - when I talk about Maybins numbers I'm only concerned with one thing. That is what type of hitter he is. His numbers scream problems with contact. I would love to hear from someone that has watched him plenty and could say why he had these splits and high K's.
But instead we typically hear comments how we are wrong. Or that we are haters. Hey, just tell me what he looks like at the plate, what his problems seem to be. I'm looking to be convinced not told I'm wrong.
ps: his numbers scream super-athlete but not baseball player. Of course it's his first year.
by pedrophile on
Dec 14, 2006 1:47 PM EST
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Well
I agree that when you look deeper into his numbers that there are some serious questions there. There are some interesting good things but some questions.
I would also love to hear comments from people that have seen him play. I have read some comments but would love to hear more.
I am not simply telling you that you are wrong or a hater. I just have a concern that people are disregarding that he is even a good prospect at all.
BTW I take Maybin being 6th overall according to milb.com and being ranked highly/praised by both BA and John to mean that scouts think highly of him.
by VtTigers on
Dec 14, 2006 2:12 PM EST
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Maybin
I consider an A- a player that is just shy of being a can't miss. Maybe one adjustment shy of that.
Maybin has plenty of time which is great. But he has several adjustments ahead of him. Personally I would rather B+ him for a more accurate value of where he is at right now. His upside is just as high.
Remember that "Raw" can also translate into tools but no skills. Only time can tell. Ruben Rivera, Drew Henson, and that White Sox OF (can't remember his name) come to mind.
I really want to see Maybin have a year where he shows decent plate discipline and an ability to hit breaking balls. I could care less if he gets 150K's if it's because he's swinging for the fences. That is correctable. But if it's because he just can't make contact - he is screwed. Consistent hard contact is not teachable.
Upton
-----
His baseball skills seem more advanced. Hence your comments about Maybin being raw. I'm not too concerned about Uptons makeup or being uninterested. He was 18. If this continues I would factor it in for sure.
Upton also didn't wow with his numbers. But he never did anything to cause major concern. Which is really my only thing at that level.
Because of this I would rate him an A-. If his numbers don't improve next year then his ranking will drop of course.
by pedrophile on
Dec 14, 2006 4:12 PM EST
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thank you
by pedrophile on
Dec 14, 2006 7:29 PM EST
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Maybin in person
by tigermeat on
Dec 14, 2006 4:35 PM EST
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hmm
by limozeen on
Dec 14, 2006 5:49 PM EST
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super-athlete
exactly. are maybin's tools fantastic? obviously. but that and one year of weird rookie-ball numbers doesn't tell us if he's going to be carlos beltran / alfonso soriano or more like torii hunter / mike cameron. his development of hitting skills will determine that. scouts rated upton the #1 pure hitter in the 05 draft; maybin didn't make the list. one year doesn't change that in my mind. that's why i rate upton higher. i still think he has a switch he hasn't turned on yet.
that's just an opinion, of course.
by wily mo on
Dec 14, 2006 4:18 PM EST
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Yet for all things that Justin has..
by Yoda on
Dec 14, 2006 1:28 PM EST
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Good work ethic...
To be THAT kind of an athelte Upton is is a sign of his work ethic.
He just seemed to be coasting, anyone who sees Upton at his even even close to best sees that he is a man amongst boys when he's playing.
by SenorGato88 on
Dec 14, 2006 6:02 PM EST
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Lauren Gagnier
by Bud Light on Dec 14, 2006 1:27 PM EST 0 recs
No Way!
by matt k on Dec 14, 2006 4:20 PM EST 0 recs
Jensen
by doublestix on Dec 14, 2006 5:57 PM EST 0 recs
Virgil Vasquez, Sendy Vasquez
If they aren't, where's Matt? If they are, anyone know why he changed his name?
by multiphasic on Dec 15, 2006 12:52 AM EST 0 recs
Zack Miner
by RatkoVarda on Dec 15, 2006 10:42 AM EST 0 recs
Clevlen
by toonsterwu on Dec 16, 2006 8:21 AM EST 0 recs











