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2007 Cincinnati Reds Prospects

2007 Cincinnati Reds Prospects

  1. Homer Bailey, RHP, Grade A (one of the top three pitching prospects in baseball)
  2. Jay Bruce, OF, Grade A- (strong tools with developing skills)
  3. Joey Votto, 1B, Grade B+ (breakthrough looks real to me)
  4. Johnny Cueto, RHP, Grade B- (overlooked prospect with a live arm)
  5. Drew Stubbs, OF, B- (outstanding tools but doubts about his bat are legit)
  6. Travis Wood, LHP, B-  (loss of velocity this year is not a good marker, but his numbers are good)
  7. Sean Watson, RHP, C+ (results don't seem to match his tools)
  8. Chris Valaika, INF, C+ (hit well in the Pioneer League, but he was a college guy)
  9. Sam LeCure, RHP, C+ (possible fourth/fifth starter type)
  10. Milton Loo, 3B, C+ (another tools guy with a bat but a long way away)
  11. Paul Janish, SS, C  (excellent glove, bat prevents him from being a better prospect)
  12. Jon Coutlangus, LHP, C (useful bullpen spare part)
  13. Calvin Medlock, RHP, C  (useful bullpen spare part)
  14. Brendan Harris, INF, C (useful infield spare part)
  15. Tyler Pelland, LHP, C (good arm but more thrower than pitcher)
  16. Chris Dickerson, OF, C (useful outfield spare part, good glove)
  17. Brad Salmon, RHP, C  (useful bullpen spare part)
  18. David Shafer, RHP, C  (useful bullpen spare part)
  19. Daryl Thompson, RHP, C  (live arm, recovering from shoulder trouble)
  20. B.J. Szymanski, OF, C (status is slipping quickly due to contact problems)
Others of Note: Jamie Arneson, LHP; Danny Dorn, OF; Phil Dumatrait, LHP; Carlos Fisher, RHP; Jerry Gil, OF-INF; Josh Hamilton, OF; Norris Hopper, OF: Derek Lutz, RHP; Javon Moran, OF; Josh Ravin, RHP; Justin Reed, OF; Jordan Smith, RHP.

The Reds In One Sentence: This system has two future stars in Bailey and Bruce, two very good prospects in Votto and Cueto, then a bunch of questionmarks and spare parts.

Obviously this system is weak right now. The Grade C guys are all interchangeable on the list depending on what you want to emphasize. I know everyone is all gaga over Josh Hamilton being picked in the Rule 5 draft, and he will be in the book, but the guy has so much rust accumulated that I am skeptical about his ability to do much.

ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.

There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.

0 recs  |  Comment 23 comments

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Question
So far Bruce, Upton, and Tabata have gotten A- grades.  I'd assume that McCutchen and Maybin will be around there also.  My question for John is, which of these impressive young OF's do you like the most?
I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Dec 12, 2006 4:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

re
I believe Brandon Watson is now a part of the Tigers' organization

by ScottAZ on Dec 12, 2006 4:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Brandon Watson
And if he's not, let's hope he is soon waived and picked up by the Tigers...It just shows how brutal a job Bowden and O'Brien did as far as maintaining and building the minor league system.  This makes it tough on us Reds fans, since the Reds seemingly can't go out and spend $$ while the minor league system is being rebuilt!

Long, long road ahead.  Stubbs may end up a bust too.  Why not take pitching instead of reaching for a guy like Stubbs?

by Bumstead on Dec 12, 2006 4:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

watson
Yep, you're right, he was signed as a free agent by the Tigers. Will fix. Thanks.

by John Sickels on Dec 12, 2006 5:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm...
Cueto isn't anything special in my mind. I watched him pitch in Dayton and while his accuracy is commendable his velocity often times doesn't reach 90 mph. I have read that he can reach 94 but when I saw him he was hitting 88 mph. Bottom of rotation / spot starter in the majors I think. B- I think

I know the Reds really like Wood and were not willing to part with him in a deal in 2006. He's a young lefty that pitched very well. I think B

Carlos Guevara, though 24, had a good season in AA and should be component of the big league roster in 2007. He avg over a strikeout an inning (77.1IP/89K) and had a good K to walk ratio (27BB/89). He's at least worth mentioning.

by Havok1517 on Dec 12, 2006 4:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I thought the same thing about Cueto ...
Until he started dialing it up to 94+ once he realized he was nearing his pitch count ... IN THE SIXTH INNNING! Fact was, on that day, he was just so much better than the hitters he didn't need overpowering stuff. Sure pitched intelligently/efficiently that day ...

His frame is VERY small, but he can bring it ... more of  power pen arm .... but he may surprise us all and stay in the rotation ...

Paul Householder, Gary Redus, Tommy Lawless, Duane Walker ... prospects rawk!

by design28 on Dec 12, 2006 5:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Cueto is
fairly hefty though.

by Havok1517 on Dec 12, 2006 5:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I thought Guevara
is a trick pitch guy with a screwball.  Tough to predict those guys at higher levels.

by TCapone30 on Dec 12, 2006 5:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Few questions
Josh Ravin, 18 years old, 5th round pick. He has 3 commandable pitches, and was touching 96 at times this past summer in the Pioneer League. Not top 20?

BJ Szymanski is horribly bad. He is fast and has a little bit of power. He cant hit though, at all.

Javon Moran has hit .330 since coming into the Reds system and isnt ranked?

Travis Woods loss of velocity is not quite what it seems. He was told not to dial it up this year becuase he was working with new mechanics.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 12, 2006 5:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

ravin
I like RAvin and he's in the book but I'm concerned about his command. Agree he could be in the top 20 depending on what you want to emphasize.

Moran has no power. Jason Tyner type. But again he's in the book and could be in the top 20 depending on your emphasis.

by John Sickels on Dec 12, 2006 6:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Moran
He may have very little power, but unless Szymanski starts hitting close to his body weight, he has absolutely no value to the Reds. Moran is a decent feilding corner outfielder with speed and a high contact/high average guy. Very typical 4th outfielder type. Szymanski couldnt be a 4th outfielder in Chattanooga right now.
The two are 2 days apart in age.
Moran hit .320 in AA while striking out 1 out of 10 at bats.
Szymanski hit .239 in Low A while striking out once every 2.5 at bats.
www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 12, 2006 9:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't want to
speak for John, but my guess is he wouldn't argue with you here.  At 20, guys become very interchangeable.  And I'd guess that John put Szymanski there because he's got the tools to become a starter even if he can't hit now, and may never hit, the raw ability is still there.  Where Moran's ceiling is that of a 4th OF.

by Tyler on Dec 13, 2006 7:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

moran
This was my thought process, yes. They are interchangable...you can stick Moran at 20 and Szy. at 21 if you want. They are both Grade C guys.

by John Sickels on Dec 13, 2006 3:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Two questions for John
  1.  You say that Homer Bailey is "one of the top three pitching prospects in baseball."  I'm curious as to who the third pitcher is on the Bailey/Hughes tier that would warrant that write-up.  I thought it might be Garza, but in checking back, you have him rated as an A-.  Lincecum perhaps?  Adam Miller?
  2.  Has Rafael Gonzalez fallen off the radar entirely?  He struggled mightily with his control this season, but he's missing bats, he's still only 20, and was acknowledged as a project.  Will he be in the book?
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 12, 2006 6:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

tim
i dont want to speak for john, but i think he really likes lincecum and counts him as part of the top 3 pitching prospects in baseball
Giants '08

by z4 landshark on Dec 12, 2006 6:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Disagree
I think he was talking about Gallardo, who is more widely regarded as being in the Hughes / Bailey class, and is in the high minors with those two

by Jgaztambide on Dec 12, 2006 7:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Probably Gallardo
Although Bailey didn't rank as high Hughes/Gallardo/Miller/Garza here...

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/9/25/134315/569

Poor John.  Thinking out loud on his website and then being held accountable for everything he types.

by Jurgen on Dec 13, 2006 11:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Gallardo
Based on earlier discussions, I'm also fairly sure he means Gallardo, who improved similarly to Bailey upon his promotion to AA.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Yovani%20Gallardo&pos=P&sid=mi lb&t=p_pbp&pid=451596

by DaleCoop14 on Dec 13, 2006 11:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Cueto
is tiny, dunno about "hefty" whoever said that.

Booked at 5'11/ 174 lbs

I've seen him in person charting in Sarasota, I don't think there is anyway this guy is 5'11'' or 174 lbs for that matter either.

"Straight ball I hit very much...Curveball, bats are afraid" -Pedro Cerrano

by TheHanleyManCan on Dec 12, 2006 9:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Gardner & Pauley
Since this is going to get the attention of the Reds fans on here, can anyone provide me with information on the rehab for Thomas Pauley?  Is there a timeline on when he will pitch again - and his there any hope of recovery?  I have read that he opted not to have surgery, and instead to rest.

Also, it appeared that Richie Gardner got a few innings in this season, but I saw it was in Rookie ball.  Assuming that he keeps his shoulder together, what do Reds fans feel his chances of returning as a top prospect again?  From what I understand, his surgery was to repair a torn labrum, which is almost a death sentence for a pitcher.  Can anyone provide some details on him?

Much appreciated!

by ZackAttack on Dec 12, 2006 10:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Gardner and Pauley
Gardner did indeed pitch some this year. He pitched in Sarasota (High A) but did horrible, so he went down.
I dont have much hope for him, Labrum surgery is more than likely a note that he isnt going to return.

As for Pauley, I have not heard much about him lately.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 13, 2006 12:29 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

ETA on Bruce?
I'm wondering what people think the ETA on Bruce is.  2009?  I just tend to think that Krivsky should be focused on building towards when Votto/Bailey/Bruce will be in the bigs, assuming all goes well.

by toonsterwu on Dec 16, 2006 8:51 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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