2007 Boston Red Sox Prospects

by John Sickels on Dec 11, 2006 4:01 PM EST in News

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Grade B+ (not as much power as Damon but otherwise similar)
Clay Buchholz, RHP, Grade B+ (good combination of stuff and command)
Michael Bowden, RHP, Grade B+ (good combination of stuff and command)
Craig Hansen, RHP B+ (I am still optimistic about him but he was rushed)
Lars Anderson, 1B, B (I love this guy, enormous power potential)
Daniel Bard, RHP, B (Best stuff in the system but may need more time than other college arms)
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, B (Another personal favorite)
George Kottaras , C, B (Should be ready in 2008, solid player but not terrific)
Justin Masterson, RHP, B (Underrated ground ball artist with great control)
Bryce Cox, RHP, B- (Great arm but Rice pitchers scare me)
Jason Place, OF, B- (Toolsy outfielder, is he Francoeur or Assadoorian?)
Kris Johnson, LHP, C+ (Good recovery from Tommy John)
Caleb Clay, RHP, C+ (Young raw high school arm)
David Murphy, OF, C+ (Solid fourth outfielder)
Carlos Fernandez-Oliva, OF, C+ (A long way from the majors but good hitting potential)
Edgar Martinez, RHP, C+ (another sound middle relief arm)
Jed Lowrie, INF, C+ (Somewhat disappointing season but controls the zone well)
Chad Spann, 3B, C+ (Joe Randa clone?)
Jeff Natale, 2B, C+ (who the hell is this guy? .950 career OPS out of a 5-8 body)
Aaron Bates, 1B, C+ (Interesting power bat from '06 draft)

Others of Note: Jeff Corsaletti, OF; Jordan Craft, RHP; Felix Doubront, LHP; Jon Egan, C; Devern Hansack, RHP; Tommy Hottovy, LHP; Kyle Jackson, RHP; Ryan Kalish, OF; Brandon Moss; OF; Kris Negron, SS: Josh Papelbon, RHP, Dustin Richardson, LHP; Mike Rozier, LHP; Mark Wagner, C; Ty Weeden, C.

The Red Sox in One Sentence: The huge windfall of the 2006 draft recharged this system quickly.

There is a lot to like here, including a nice assortment of power arms and hitters with both polish and upside.

ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.

There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.

And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.

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Comments

It's your book and your list

But I'm pretty sure Hansen isn't eligible for rookie status anymore, having pitched in 42 games.

by Brickhaus on Dec 11, 2006 4:01 PM EST 0 recs

Ryan Phillips

Not sure why Ryan Phillips didn't get a sniff. He had pretty good numbers. Much better K/BB Ratio than Mike Rozier.

by cardbored on Dec 12, 2006 9:19 PM EST up 0 recs

hansen

My cut off is 50 innings.

by John Sickels on Dec 11, 2006 4:02 PM EST 0 recs

Anderson

Having never seen him, I can't really disagree... but I can't seem to remember a HS first baseman getting this much love.

Can't wait to see what he does in his pro debut.

by SmokeyJoeWood on Dec 11, 2006 4:07 PM EST 0 recs

Luis Soto

Can't really complain about his name not appearing on this list, but it's remarkable how quickly people have given up on him.

by Walt in Maryland on Dec 11, 2006 4:12 PM EST 0 recs

Well

With the season he had this year, that's understandable.

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Dec 11, 2006 5:37 PM EST up 0 recs

Buchholz vs. Bowden

Just out of curiosity, and I know they got the same grade, but is there much to choose between these two guys? I haven't seen either of them pitch, but they seem at roughly the same level developmentally, with Bowden about two years younger.

I know Buchholz graduated a level last year and was successful in limited A+ ball, but I would think that Bowden's similar stats in Greenville might bump him past Buchholz on the chart.

by whonichol on Dec 11, 2006 4:21 PM EST 0 recs

Buchholz...

Buchholz is ahead in my book right now. He might be 2 years older, but he started pitching only years ago in JuCo. He has better stuff and more potential, IMO.

by templeUsox on Dec 11, 2006 4:32 PM EST up 0 recs

Yes...

I know he's probably newer to pitching compared with other guys ranked as B+ pitching prospects, so relative to his experience, there's a lot to like there.

Where should we expect them to start next year? Both in A+? Is Buchholz ready for AA?

by whonichol on Dec 11, 2006 4:35 PM EST up 0 recs

General consensus...

is that they will both start in high-A with Buchholz advancing more quickly to double-A. You have to take Lancaster into account now when making promotion decisions.

by templeUsox on Dec 11, 2006 4:40 PM EST up 0 recs

Hopefully

they don't fly there in their little planes!

by slurve on Dec 11, 2006 4:47 PM EST up 0 recs

Buchholz

Don't kid yourself on this guy starting out in Hi-A. He's more than ready for AA and should be in the Boston rotation in June 2008. This kid is gooooooooooood! He should be one of the top pitchers in the Eastern League in 2007.

by HumboltThunderbolt on Dec 12, 2006 3:28 PM EST up 0 recs

Any hope for....

Brandon Moss?

(Serious ?, I don't really follow Boston).

by colinadam on Dec 11, 2006 4:30 PM EST 0 recs

re: Moss

Well, I think there's hope for him to be a pretty good 4th outfielder and maybe an ok outfielder for a small market team.

by BLumbergh on Dec 11, 2006 6:16 PM EST up 0 recs

you've gotten soft

this was your redsox top 10 going into the 2005 season:

1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, A-
2. Jon Papelbon, RHP, B+
3. Brandon Moss, OF, B+
4. Anibal Sanchez, RHP, B
5. Jon Lester, LHP, B
6. Dustin Pedroia, SS, B
7. Christian Lara, SS, B-
8. Luis Soto, SS, B-
9. Kelly Shoppach, C, B-
10. Abe Alvarez, LHP, B-

and this is the top 10 going into last season:

# Craig Hansen, RHP, Grade A-
# Jon Lester, LHP, Grade B+
# Jon Papelbon, RHP, B+
# Dustin Pedroia, 2B, B+
# Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, B
# Clay Buchholz, RHP, B
# Michael Bowden, RHP, B
# Manny Delcarmen, RHP, B-
# Jed Lowrie, 2B, B-
# Brandon Moss, OF, B-

maybe its just me, but i don't see buccholz and bowden being as good of prospects as lester and papelbon were. their raw stuff is not really even close, and i don't see their upsides being near the same.

and what did ellsbury do this year that justifies his grade going up? he was already graded pretty generously last year coming out of college, and considering his lack of power in AA, i don't see how he is deserving of a B+ regardless of how good his on base ability or defense. .434 slug in AA <> B+ grade.

and i know that you like lars anderson, but if he hasn't played an inning of professional baseball, he shouldn't be in the book.

it's a bad strategy to base your lineup on the relative beauty of a man's outs rather than the rate at which he makes them.

by overlord on Dec 11, 2006 4:47 PM EST 0 recs

Lars

If Lars shouldnt be in the book, than you think Justin Upton also should have been ignored last year right?

by flyby4553 on Dec 11, 2006 4:54 PM EST up 0 recs

highschoolers that have yet to debut

do not have a established enough track record agains proven competition to be able to make an accurate assesment of their tools and skills.

put it this way, players who have been in the minors for 3 years have had ample time for their games to be dissected by scouts, and for their shortcomings to be magnified.

it's a bad strategy to base your lineup on the relative beauty of a man's outs rather than the rate at which he makes them.

by overlord on Dec 11, 2006 5:05 PM EST up 0 recs

Relax man

John has been raving about this guy since before the mock draft last spring. He seems to know quite a bit about him and obviously feels comfortable sticking his neck out with what he does know. Just use a magic marker and pretend he isn't in your book, I'm looking forward to seeing what he has to say in mine.

by slurve on Dec 11, 2006 5:11 PM EST up 0 recs

Yeah, what does Sickels know about prospects?

by The Colonel on Dec 11, 2006 7:04 PM EST up 0 recs

What?

"highschoolers that have yet to debut do not have a established enough track record agains proven competition to be able to make an accurate assesment of their tools and skills."

Well, I think that the entire scouting industry and most independent pundits would disagree with you on this one.

In fact, you can assess a players tools and skills without that player having even one single professional AB.

by Jerry on Dec 13, 2006 3:08 PM EST up 0 recs

re:

"if he hasn't played an inning of professional baseball, he shouldn't be in the book."

John, I never knew your editor is named "Overlord". Wow, the publishing industry has really changed.

by SmokeyJoeWood on Dec 11, 2006 4:57 PM EST up 0 recs

Zing!!!

Maybe if he has never had a book published, he shouldn't be saying what should/shouldn't be in the book!!!

On that note, I hope to see Matsuzaka in the book as well...

by slurve on Dec 11, 2006 5:02 PM EST up 0 recs

ellsbury

He's controls the strike zone well, and he's a top notch defensive CF.

If a guy can be roughly expected to end up a .300/.380/.440 hitter with GG caliber CF defense, that's worth a B+. If he had big time power, he'd be one of the best prospects in the game, and surely worthy of an A/A- type grade. It's his only "weakness" - and it's not as though he's Jackie Rexrode or something.

Also, Wilmington is a severe pitchers park, and he saw only limited time in AA. I doubt he's ever a 20 hr guy, but don't be surprised if he ends up with an ISO in the .130-.160 range this year. He's still young.

by joe c on Dec 11, 2006 4:58 PM EST up 0 recs

re:

"and what did ellsbury do this year that justifies his grade going up?"

Played full season ball, and played well?

by SmokeyJoeWood on Dec 11, 2006 4:59 PM EST up 0 recs

played well?

he put up a .797 ops in high A, and a .823 ops in AA.

are you really going to set the bar that low for a B+ grade.

here is a list of some other B+ prospects:

ian stewart
franklin morales
brandon erbe
chris young
carlos gonzalez

would you trade any of these players for one of the 3 red sox B+ players?

wait, chris young is also a centerfielder. this allows an opportunity for comparison. both are 22 year old centerfielders, ellsbury went the college route, so i won't hold age and level against him.

career:

young: .267/.358/.501
ellsbury: .306/.391/.427

2006:
young: AAA, PCL, .276/.363/.532
ellsbury, AA, EL, .308/.387/.434

i don't care how good ellsbury's defense is, he does not deserve the same grade as young.

it's a bad strategy to base your lineup on the relative beauty of a man's outs rather than the rate at which he makes them.

by overlord on Dec 11, 2006 5:15 PM EST up 0 recs

ellsb

I already changed Young to Grade A-.

by John Sickels on Dec 11, 2006 5:22 PM EST up 0 recs

Well . . .

There are a lot of problems with that argument.

First, I think Carlos Gonzalez is the only guy I'd take from that list over Ellsbury. I consider Young and Ellsbury a toss-up. They both do very different things, except play centerfield.

Your analysis also neglects park effect. Hitting .850 OPS in Tucson is much different than hitting .820 OPS at Wilmington.

I just don't think the different is quite as dramatic as your rhetoric would make it sound.

by Montreal97 on Dec 12, 2006 1:15 PM EST up 0 recs

Gonzalez...

is so overrated.

Young >>> Ellsbury >>> Gonzalez

Sorry, but when you really analyze Gonzalez, most of what he has going for him is home park created, and his stunning tools.

Young looks like a 5 out of 6 tool CF (and should hit at least .270 in his prime). Ellsbury won't hit for power, but will do everything else very well.

by SenorGato88 on Dec 12, 2006 5:43 PM EST up 0 recs

re: JFess

First of all, Chris Young's OPS was .898 rather than .850 for Tuscon. Minorleaguesplits.com translates that to a park neutral .891 OPS (since Tuscon was actually a tough place to homer in '06).

Ellsbury's OPS was .802 rather than .820 for Wilmington. Minorleaguesplits.com translate that OPS to .835.

I can see why you don't think the difference is that dramatic. Your basing your opinion on your incorrect recollection of the stats. Besides hitting stats from high A are not comparable to AAA anyway. There is a big gap in quality of competition.

Chris Young:
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/455/455759.html
Ellsbury @ WM:
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/453/453056WilCARb06.html

by natsfan2005 on Dec 13, 2006 9:48 AM EST up 0 recs

Buccholz v. Papelbon

How, again, is their stuff not even close? Sure, Paps has added a split, but that's a new pitch for him. I'd say Buccholz's stuff compares pretty decently to A+ or AA Paps: Buccholz can throw harder (touched 97 this year), and has a better curve (ranked the best breaking ball in the Sally League this year), and better change up.

by BLumbergh on Dec 11, 2006 5:01 PM EST up 0 recs

Upsides

"maybe its just me, but i don't see buccholz and bowden being as good of prospects as lester and papelbon were. their raw stuff is not really even close, and i don't see their upsides being near the same."

I think it could be just you, because Baseball America says Buchholtz has the upside of a No. 1 starter.

by igreen01 on Dec 11, 2006 7:39 PM EST up 0 recs

BA

they also say he's got no T in his name!

ho ho ho merry spellmas

by wily mo on Dec 11, 2006 7:48 PM EST up 0 recs

The bar was raised so high...

I think it's safe to say a lot of people were skeptical of Lester and Papelbon, but, yeah, we're seeing this a lot with this year's crop of pitching prospects compared to last year. (See the debate around Garza's A rating.) I think what's messing us up is that usually you don't see so many pitching prospects have such good rookie campaigns like this year. With Verlander, Liriano, Hamels, Cain, Weaver, Olsen, Johnson, Billingsley, Maine, Sanchez, Zumaya, Papelbon all having considerable big league success... the bar has been raised pretty high.

by Jurgen on Dec 11, 2006 9:26 PM EST up 0 recs

Well put

God rested one day out of 7, Felix rests 4 out of 5.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Dec 11, 2006 9:37 PM EST up 0 recs

Bard

Why "only" a B? The consensus was that he was a steal at #28 (?) in the draft. He's a lefty with a plus fastball, pretty good secondary pitches and he seems to know how to pitch. I'd think he could be in the mix by 2008.

by ScottBoras on Dec 11, 2006 10:12 PM EST 0 recs

Hmm.

Not to pick on you, but what I've heard is that his fastball is a bit straight, his secondary pitches need work, and his control needs work. And to sort of pick on you, he's a righty. : ) Most people are saying it could be a few years for him, though his upside is certainly quite high, with that fastball.

by abbreviatedman on Dec 11, 2006 10:23 PM EST up 0 recs

lol

He's a lefty with a plus fastball, pretty good secondary pitches and he seems to know how to pitch. I'd think he could be in the mix by 2008.

that uh... doesnt sound like Bard at all.

by npurcell on Dec 11, 2006 10:43 PM EST up 0 recs

+1

I think you're confusing Bard with that other guy drafted out of UNC...

by Brickhaus on Dec 11, 2006 11:22 PM EST up 0 recs

Look at the user name...

he's probably just trying to hype Bard up beyond belief.

Never trust Scott Boras.

by Anibal the Cannibal on Dec 12, 2006 10:52 AM EST up 0 recs

Place

Personally, I hope his upside is above Francoeur 2006. Put another way, I guess, I hope his upside is Francoeur's upside. I agree they seem like similar players, though.

by abbreviatedman on Dec 11, 2006 10:31 PM EST 0 recs

Tommy Hottovy

What do you think of Tommy Hottovy?

by royalsfan7 on Dec 12, 2006 12:23 AM EST 0 recs

Rice and Bryce

I understand worrying about Rice pitchers given their track record, but Bryce was used sparingly, wasn't he? I could be wrong, don't have his college stats, but I thought they used him as a reliever, and didn't even use him as their best because his stuff was way down, supposedly due to poor mechanics. Anyway, that would relieve my fear, though I'd probably keep him a B- due to his short track record of success, even in amateur baseball.

by abbreviatedman on Dec 12, 2006 8:19 AM EST 0 recs

does anyone know anything about Natale?

You have to root for the little Joe Morgan-type guy (even though I'm 6'5").

by BIgMax on Dec 12, 2006 10:49 AM EST 0 recs

Joe Morgan...

won Gold Gloves. Natale is positively Cantu-esque.

by templeUsox on Dec 12, 2006 12:23 PM EST up 0 recs

I don't...

know why I wrote that. I knew you weren't drawing a direct comparison between the two.

But seriously, Natale's defense is piss-poor. Unless he plans on becoming the smallest DH in the history of baseball, he better go on the Mark Grudzielanek Self-Improvement Plan.

by templeUsox on Dec 12, 2006 12:28 PM EST up 0 recs

yeah

which makes it even more laughable to be a C+

by PooNani on Dec 12, 2006 12:49 PM EST up 0 recs

Actually..

it's not laughable at all considering how much he raked. A C+ isn't anything special.

by templeUsox on Dec 12, 2006 1:11 PM EST up 0 recs

Thank you

I was wondering why I never heard of a guy like that. A concrete glove explains it.

by BIgMax on Dec 12, 2006 1:24 PM EST up 0 recs

uh

a 403 slg% in high A ball for a 24 year old 32nd round pick who cant play defense? our definitions of rake seem to differ

by PooNani on Dec 12, 2006 3:16 PM EST up 0 recs

Couple it...

with a .400 OBP and an extreme pitcher's park and I would say it is.

by templeUsox on Dec 13, 2006 3:32 AM EST up 0 recs

ok

his park adjusted line from mlbs gives him a .433 SLG. his plate discipline definitely is a plus, although his strikeout rate isnt really low either. i dont see much to be impressed about to rate him anything above a bottom-feeder journeyman type. Especially says a lot about him that he was kept in low A in favor of sterling names like Dominic Ramos and Iggy Suarez. Forget about what we think as outsiders, if a kid that old who "raked" in 05 is placed that conservatively given his age that says plenty

by PooNani on Dec 13, 2006 8:06 AM EST up 0 recs

Natale

I saw him play quite a bit in Low-A this past season. I don't really remember anything about his fielding (so I must have caught him on no error days), but I remember his bat. He packed a lot of pop for a small guy (reminded me of Marcus Giles, who I also saw a lot of in the minor, though AA). Natale has a good approach at the plate, too - works the count into his favor a lot. But, and this is the big one, he was 24 playing in the Sally League. And the Greenville stadium is a bit of a bandbox, modelled after Fenway. He's certainly an interesting sleeper.

by tonyd on Dec 13, 2006 12:23 PM EST up 0 recs

C

Isn't the C grade made for guys like Bates, Murphy, and Natale? Also seems strange to see Clay at a C+ when he hasnt pitched in pro ball and wasnt supposed to be a sensation prospect to begin with. Hes a nice young arm but so are a number of Caribbean kids like capellan or doubront but at least theyve pitched well in america.

Lars is a whole nother story because hes got an elite bat coming out of HS

by PooNani on Dec 12, 2006 12:54 PM EST 0 recs

Any thoughts on...

Chih-Hsien Chiang, the young 2nd baseman?

by mckeeno on Dec 12, 2006 1:10 PM EST 0 recs

I'd be interesting John's comments

on Chiang as well. Certainly has some flaws right now, but he's awfully young.

As for Chih-Hsiang Huang, who some thought was a better talent than Chiang, he supposedly had a good fall instructional league. Saw a blurb about that somewhere.

by toonsterwu on Dec 13, 2006 5:13 AM EST up 0 recs

Huang

Do you think you could find that blog and post a link. I would be interested. Thanks

by wir963 on Dec 13, 2006 11:27 AM EST up 0 recs

Here you go

Near the bottom.

by battlekow on Dec 13, 2006 11:25 PM EST up 0 recs

Pedrioa

looking at overlords list, I wonder why Pedrioa grade dropped from a B+ to a B. He did have a poor showing in the majors but that was a kind of small sample.

by wir963 on Dec 12, 2006 1:16 PM EST 0 recs

Probably...

because a B+ last year was a bit high for a guy with little projectability. The B grade is a little more realistic IMO.

by jc3 on Dec 12, 2006 1:42 PM EST up 0 recs

Devern Hansack

With guys like Hansen, Delcarmen, and Cox as right handed relievers, does Hansack have any value?

by gunkdog on Dec 15, 2006 12:28 PM EST 0 recs

Others of Note Who Weren't "OON"

Chih-Hsien Chang has already been mentioned. Kason Gabbard and David Pauley are pretty obvious omissions. Christian Lara still has the glove and on-base skills. Mike Jones is a classic old-for-league mystery. Tim Cox and Blake Maxwell had really good seasons statistically and are worth a look on that basis alone. And given the flat MLEs for knuckleballers, Charlie Zink is probably already above replacement level.

OTOH, I'm not sure why Craft, Richardson and kid bro Papelbon get a mention so early in their careers and Jose Capellan and Wang-Yi Lin don't (not to mention a handful of other kids who pitched last year for Lowell or in the GCL and seemed roughly as impressive.)

by Eric Van on Dec 19, 2006 8:59 AM EST 0 recs