Minor League OPS+

by sanchez101 on Jan 8, 2006 5:35 PM EST

We talk a lot about minor league numbers around here, and I think we consider league-context, but it seems we only consider them in an abstract kind of sense. I was thinking about this in partucular in regards to Brandon Wood, who put up such ridiculous numbers that they are hard to keep in context. Here are all the full-season league average OPS numbers:

Florida St - 260/329/385 - 714
Eastern Lg - 259/327/398 - 725
Midwest Lg - 260/336/389 - 725
South Atl. - 261/336/393 - 729
Southern Lg- 266/339/393 - 732
Carolina Lg- 262/339/405 - 744
Texas Leag.- 270/335/412 - 747
Intern. Lg.- 270/337/423 - 760
Pacific Coa- 278/350/442 - 792
California - 286/357/451 - 808

You can see here how extreme the PCL and the California League's are. The difference between the FSL and the 3rd most hitter friendly league (the International League) is 56 points of OPS, the difference between the International League is 68. Here are the minor league OPS+ numbers for some top prospects. For players at two levels, like Howie Kendrick, the first number is at the lower level and the second at the higher level. (I only did this for when a player had at least 100 PA's at a level)

player - OPS+ (league)
Stephen Drew - 151/94 (cal/sou)
Hunter Pence - 146/116 (SAL/car)
Andy LaRoche - 144/111 (fsl/sou)
Rickie Weeks - 137 (PCL)
Brandon Jones - 116/90 (SAL/car)
Jeremy Hermida - 133 (sou)
Travis Denker - 133/78 (SAL/FSL)
Delmon Young - 132/99 (sou/int)
Billy Butler - 131/118 (cal/tex)
Howie Kendrick - 131/129 (cal/tex)
Brandon Wood - 130 (cal)
Matt Kemp - 129 (FSL)
Conor Jackson - 128 (PCL)
Dustin Pedroia - 126/97 (eas/int)
Chris Young - 126 (sou)
Felix Pie - 123 (sou)
Edwin Encarnacion - 123 (int)
Prince Fielder - 121 (PCL)
Lastings Milledge - 112/120 (FSL/eas)
Carlos Quentin - 119 (PCL)
Carlos Gonzales - 119 (mid)
Daric Barton - 112/119 (cal/tex)
Andre Ethier - 118 (tex)
Kendry Morales - 118 (tex)
Edgar Martinez-Esteve - 118 (cal)
Russ Martin - 117 (sou)
Andy Marte - 116 (int)
Matt Moses - 116/90 (FSL/eas)
Ronny Cedeno - 116 (PCL)
Nick Markakis - 115/137 (car/eas)
Curtis Granderson - 115 (int)
Corey Hart - 115 (PCL)
Brian McCann - 114 (sou)
Delwyn Young - 114 (sou)
Denard Span - 114/96 (FSL/sou)
Elijiah Dukes - 114 (sou)
Yunel Escobar - 114 (SAL)
Joel Guzman - 113 (sou)
Tony Abreu - 113 (FSL)
Javier Herrera - 113 (mid)
Jeff Francoeur - 111 (sou)
Marcus Sanders - 111 (mid)
Adam Jones - 107/110 (cal/tex)
Brian Anderson - 109 (int)
Chin-Lung Hu - 109 (FSL)
Neil Walker - 108 (SAL)
Ryan Harvey - 108 (mid)
George Kottaras - 106/111 (cal/sou)
Eric Aybar - 106 (tex)
Jeff Mathis - 106 (PCL)
Ian Stewart - 105 (cal)
Blake DeWitt - 104 (SAL)
Ian Kinsler - 103 (PCL)
Josh Barfield - 103 (PCL)
Eric Duncan - 101 (eas)
Reid Brignac - 101 (mid)
Alberto Collapso - 101/100 (tex/PCL)
Kurt Suzuki - 101 (cal)
Joaquin Arias - 101 (tex)
Hanley Ramirez - 99 (eas)
Greg Golson - 98 (SAL)

I think this can help enlighten us to certain prospects hitting-relative to league. For example, Brandon Wood had a OPS+ of 130, which clearly puts him among the top hitters in the minors, but Matt Kemp, Billy Butler, Chris Young and Dustin Pedroia all put up similar OPS+ numbers, so its not as if he towers above everyone else. Of course, position, park, and age, as well as scouting reports should also factor in for judging prospects.

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re

great stuff.

by mckeeno on Jan 8, 2006 5:41 PM EST reply actions

Nice to see that

Also, I'm sure that if Park factors were involved as well, that would make it even more uneven...

by Brickhaus on Jan 8, 2006 5:47 PM EST reply actions

Not to be "that guy"

But you really need to utilize park factors as well in order to get a full idea of context adjusted performance. This would bring a guy like Wood down some more (I think). PF for all minor league parks can be found at Baseball Think Factory in their Transaction Oracle section. I'll check for the link.

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Jan 8, 2006 5:53 PM EST reply actions

totally

of course, for example; Matt Kemp and LaRoche look real good because the Florida State League is the best pitchers league in baseball, but Vero Beach is easily (i think) the best hitters park in the league, especially when it comes to righthanded power hitters. So, OPS+ overstates their accomplishments. OPS+ isnt the end-all stat, I think its just usefull when comparing hitters that play in completely different environments.

by sanchez101 on Jan 8, 2006 8:04 PM EST up reply actions

Park Factors

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/34611/

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Jan 8, 2006 5:56 PM EST reply actions

Nice work

I would be interested however to see that over a few years. I mean "prospect wise" Cal league and PCL also had some nice prospects driving up those figures.
Sure you would see the numbers similar but not quite as extreme.

http://oaklandprospects.blogspot.com/

by novaoakland on Jan 8, 2006 6:16 PM EST reply actions

past years

There might be a simpler way to do it, but if someone has the old URL for Baseball Prospectus' Minor League EQA page, you should be able to get old league averages going back a couple years.

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Jan 8, 2006 6:20 PM EST reply actions

I've calculated

normalized stats for all the AA and AAA leagues.

by Ienpw on Jan 8, 2006 6:47 PM EST reply actions

normalized stats

What exactly do you mean, and would you care to share?

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Jan 8, 2006 7:13 PM EST up reply actions

normalized

for league and park. Well, I couldnt properly adjust the park factors the way I wanted to. I don't know where to get splits for minor league players, so I estimated them.

by Ienpw on Jan 9, 2006 12:40 AM EST up reply actions

subject

Would you care to share that information?

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Jan 9, 2006 12:42 AM EST up reply actions

hmm

I guess this is the best way to post them.

AAA hitters
AA hitters

Chris Young was obviously helped way too much. He got a huge bonus because I simply don't have the road/home splits, so I had to estimate them from his overall stats. The HR factor for his home park was .55, so he went up a lot on that. Then the SL is tough as a whole on HR. Remember, these are just approximate calculations by me. Someone else would get different, but similar results I would assume.

by Ienpw on Jan 9, 2006 10:49 AM EST up reply actions

AAA/AA numbers

is there a file that you can send to me? it's somewhat unreadable in it's current state.

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Jan 9, 2006 1:29 PM EST up reply actions

Excel

Open it up in Excel. Use "Text to Columns" in the "Data" pulldown menu to read it as comma delimited.

Mr Pibb + Red Vines = Crazy Delicious

by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on Jan 9, 2006 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

or

or copy and paste it into microsoft works spreadsheet if you dont have excel.

by Ienpw on Jan 9, 2006 3:08 PM EST up reply actions

John does it

Wait till you get John's book.

I haven't looked at last year's book (or the prior four or five years) but I know he uses league factors in his projections and I believe park factors are there too.

John?? Right???

I won't get married until the Red Sox win the World Series. AGAIN!!

by Shep on Jan 8, 2006 7:33 PM EST reply actions