Impact Rookie Hitters in 2006
Which rookie hitter will have the most impact on his team on on baseball in 2006?
Over the past two days, I have posted my rankings of the Top 20 Impact Hitters and Top 20 Impact Pitchers for 2006. Obviously this is a subjective list, but kind of fun to start thinking about.
To see my Top 20 Rookie Impact Hitters of 2006 with some thoughts, go to http://www.sethspeaks.net/012306.htm. I'd love to hear your thoughts on who I left off the list, maybe some surprise guys, and who is ranked too high.
mlb.com's Jonathon Mayo told me that he would probably rank Stephen Drew higher. What do you think?
0 recs |
24 comments
Comments
re
What does everyone else predict?
by ScottAZ on Jan 24, 2006 3:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
hermida
Fielder I see as having low 20's homers this season.
If Kubel hasn't missed all of last year, he could easily win it too. I wonder how his knee is going.
Barfield won't put up the power numbers to steal it from any of these guys.
Johjima could win it simply because of his polish and position.
by Jgaztambide on Jan 24, 2006 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
re
Prince will eventually become a .380OB guy with a 550-600SLG.
I don't see Barfield or Kubel ever coming close to those numbers.
by ScottAZ on Jan 24, 2006 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fwiw
Remember that plate discipline carries over extremely well from the minors to the majors
by Jgaztambide on Jan 24, 2006 4:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Pickering
by natsfan2005 on Jan 24, 2006 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes, but
I usually just peruse them to get different opinions on players and see some projection systems. I take it all with a grain of salt
by Jgaztambide on Jan 24, 2006 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"fair"
I think if they want their projections to be taken seriously, some of the irresponsible projections based on small sample sizes need to be reviewed and revised. Here are some examples:
- McPherson will slug .594.
- Pickering will slug .560.
=> Sure, these could happen - look at T.Clark. Just not likely.
2006:> Minor league BA by stop: .350(R), .196, .218, .213, .211., .279, .355 (245ab)
1. Ronny Cedeno will hit .310.
=
2. Ryan Howard will go .322/.397/.628.
I understand that all systems will have their biases. And I'm not an advocate of toning down someone's projection just to be "safe". It's one thing to predict that Bucky Jacobsen will slug .500 in Seattle (very unlikely I think, but he's been an under-utilized power source for a while now), but to project some of these other things is outrageous. Even if Howard does go "Delgado 2000" this year, it's not a reasonable "expected result", just as it wasn't an expected result that year for Carlos, as great as he has been in his career.
by BobbyMac on Jan 24, 2006 8:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Projections
Projections are just fun. The reason that I decided to do them this year are primarily for my fantasy baseball cheat sheets. Think about it, we all spend a lot of time reading baseball sites and blogs for information. We all have a ton of information, and have probably developed a lot of our own opinions on players throughout the league.
My projections are like this:
1.) I look at the age of the player.
2.) I look at the numbers and trends for the last couple of years.
3.) I think about how much playing time they will get (based on offseason moves, etc.)
4.) I try to figure out where they will bat in the batting order.
5.) I consider their team, and the players who will bat around them in the lineup,
and finally...
6.) I GUESS. Seriously, isn't that what projections are? They are semi-educated guesses. No one can predict when an injury will occur. No one can predict a sudden 50 game suspension. We all try to predict the breakout players and the flops (based on our own reasons), but we really don't know.
So again, my projections are educated guesses, and an attempt to give myself a cheat sheet for my fantasy drafts that I can feel good about as containing what I really believe will happen.
(Note - I like to think I know a lot, but I pretty much always finish in the bottom third of my leagues!)
by SethSpeaks on Jan 25, 2006 12:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Where's Howie Kendrick?
by The Rocc on Jan 24, 2006 5:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
No, but
by slurve on Jan 24, 2006 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
C. Duffy
Also, I think these should at least be honorable mention:
- J. Huber
- C. Hart
- D. Pedroia
- R. Shealy
- W. Bankston
- R. Garko
- C. Snelling (if he can ever stay healthy)
- F. Gutierrez
- C. Aguila (if Reed is listed, he should be, too)
- M. Kemp (I read where he could get significant playing time this year. I'd say he has at least as good a chance as Ethier.)
by rhd on Jan 24, 2006 9:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Responses
Corey Hart? Where will he play in 2006? Not 3B, and probably not in the corner OF?
I do like Pedroia.
Where will Shealy play in Colorado?
Is Garko going to be a backup to Victor Martinez?
Franklin Gutierrez? I like him, and I'm surprised that there isn't talk of just letting him play LF if Crisp is dealt.
Aguila has too many ABs to qualify as a rookie still. Same with Chris Duffy and Omar Quintanilla and a few others.
by SethSpeaks on Jan 25, 2006 12:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sunglasses at night
I would assume that the Brewers would want to keep Hart playing nearly full-time somewhere.
by BobbyMac on Jan 26, 2006 12:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reply
Duffy has only 126 MLB ABs and Aguila has only 123. That makes them rookies for roto purposes for most prospect mavens I'm familiar with (including BA). What is your cutoff for rookie eligibility?
I dont whether or not the players I listed as honorable mentions will be starters for most of the season, but the same can be said for many of the guys you listed in your top 20. Re: Huber, I dont see where he has much left to prove in the miinors, and I cant imagine that Mientciewicz will keep him out of the lineup for long. But then again, these are the Royals we're talking about.
by rhd on Jan 26, 2006 2:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Garko & Gutierrez!
SethSpeaks - Garko is beginning 2006 at AAA Buffalo to work on his defense at 1B as the Indians see him as a future 1B, not as a catcher (not even as a backup catcher; he would probably be the emergency, 3rd-string catcher, as he is catching one day a week, but it's likely Einar Diaz or Tim Laker will be the backup to Martinez if Bard is traded and either Shoppach is not acquired or is sent to Philadelphia or elsewhere.)
Gutierrez - I think the Indians want him to get more AAA experience as he was just starting to handle the AAA level the final month or two in 2005 (such as an improved walk rate and more consistent hitting.) Personally, I think he should spend at least the first half of 2006 at AAA, just to make sure he is ready to contribute in 2007 and beyond.
That's why the Indians are interested in acquiring Jason Michaels, in my opinion: they see him as a one-year stop-gap for 2006 until Gutierrez, Francisco, Snyder, Mulhern, Cooper, etc. are ready to contribute in 2007 and beyond. After 2006, the Indians would probably make Michaels a bench player/4th outfielder or let him go.
Therefore, I believe Garko and Gutierrez can contribute in 2006, but probably not until the second half of 2006. It's more likely they will contribute in 2007, in my opinion.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Jan 25, 2006 3:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Gutierrez
by Flynn Blake on Jan 25, 2006 4:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good question, Flynn!
Good question! :-)
To be honest, I'm not sure which outfielders will make it and stay with the Indians for the long-term, as I mentioned five different ones
Gutierrez
Francisco
Snyder
Mulhern (he's taking balls in the OF; with Garko, Aubrey, and Head coming, I think he will move to the OF, as I believe he played the OF in college.)
Cooper
I'm presuming that Sizemore will stay for the long term and Blake will certainly go within a few years. Crisp, I'm not sure about - he could be here for a while, but I get that feeling, at some point, he will be traded - perhaps now, perhaps later. Therefore, I think two of the OF prospects will have the chance to "stick" for a while. The question is, which two?
Right now, I think it comes down to Gutierrez, Snyder, and Mulhern, though I think Francisco could force his way in if he hit like he did in the Mexican League this offseason - 17 or 23 HRs (not sure, but a significant power increase, along with a power increase at AA Akron.)
Cooper I think is a long shot, as he's older than the others and seems to have been bypassed by the younger OFs of Gutierrez, Francisco, and Mulhern, all likely to start at AAA in 2006, with Snyder probably still at AA to begin 2006, but with a higher ceiling than Cooper as well.
Referring to Gutierrez, I think he has the inside track on one of the 2 OF spots; right now, I think he might hit anywhere from 15-25 HRs, be able to hit from .270-.300+, depending on whether his strike zone discipline holds or not (it improved at AAA Buffalo in 2005) and steal 20-30 bases a season.
In some ways, he reminds me a bit of New York Mets prospect Lastings Milledge in that I don't think he will hit for a ton of power, though possibly more than Milledge, but perhaps with a lower OBP than Milledge.
Defensively, he supposedly has a very good arm and very good range. The question is, will he be a better CF than Grady Sizemore and force Sizemore to move? The only reason I think it's possible is because Gutierrez has a stronger arm than Sizemore and comparable range. If he doesn't move Sizemore, most likely he will take over in RF, which is probably likely, since I think the Indians like Sizemore in CF, even though his arm is only average.
As for the other OF prospect to make it, Snyder might have the best overall talent, but Mulhern is closer and his power surge last year I think opened the Indians' front office's eyes. Chances are that I think Mulhern will make it to Cleveland first as he will probably start at AAA Buffalo to begin 2006.
If I were the Indians, I would hold Snyder back at AA Akron to start 2006 because his BB/K ratio could still improve a bit. Therefore, I think Mulhern may have the other OF spot for a little while - then, either Snyder will force Mulhern to go back to 1B, meaning that Garko will be forced out (unlikely, but possible,) Mulhern will force out Gutierrez in RF if Gutierrez struggles to hit ML pitching, or Mulhern will be out of Cleveland.
Another possibility for Mulhern is if Snyder is traded, but I think Snyder's overall potential is higher than Mulhern's, so unless the Indians are "bowled over" by an offer, I don't think that Snyder will be traded.
Francisco could force his way in there if he continues to play like he did in 2005, or at worst, be a 4th outfielder, as some had projected before his 2005 power surge.
Cooper, I have my doubts about. He improved a bit in 2005, but I'm not sure he will be a consistent offensive force as he's never really hit for a high average at AA or AAA and his BB/K has not been great at AA or AAA either; plus, being older than the others, I think he will be forced out (possibly trade bait.)
Just my 2 cents. :-) I hope this was helpful for you. Let me know if you have any more questions or thoughts on Gutierrez or any of the other Indians' prospects.
Take care and have a great day! :-)
by indiansfan on Jan 25, 2006 7:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Gutierrez
by jahs34 on Jan 25, 2006 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: VL
by natsfan2005 on Jan 25, 2006 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Conor Jackson
by murraygd13 on Jan 25, 2006 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jackson
Stephen Drew I just mentioned as Just Missed. I think he will come up this year, but I think it'll be closer to August or September. If sooner, he should definitely be higher.
I have Carlos Quentin at #11. Had the team not signed Eric Byrnes, I think Quentin would be just fine as the D-Backs every day CF.
by SethSpeaks on Jan 25, 2006 2:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I have...
I can see him hitting .260/.350/.450 this season, and improving every year after.
Also a big fan of Kubel. I can definitely see him putting up a .290-.300/.350-.360/.460-.470 line.
Those are my two favorites. Fielder should also be very, very impressive.
Not much of a Barfield fan, but I am somewhat interested in the Marlins Rule V 2B. He looks like he may be a good hitter.
by SenorGato88 on Jan 25, 2006 7:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
funny
I also have Kubel in strat. I had Kal Daniels back when he was a rookie too, and I'm having evil flashbacks. :(
by BobbyMac on Jan 26, 2006 12:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

by 













