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Impact Rookie Hitters in 2006

Which rookie hitter will have the most impact on his team on on baseball in 2006?

Star-divide

Over the past two days, I have posted my rankings of the Top 20 Impact Hitters and Top 20 Impact Pitchers for 2006. Obviously this is a subjective list, but kind of fun to start thinking about.

To see my Top 20 Rookie Impact Hitters of 2006 with some thoughts, go to http://www.sethspeaks.net/012306.htm. I'd love to hear your thoughts on who I left off the list, maybe some surprise guys, and who is ranked too high.

mlb.com's Jonathon Mayo told me that he would probably rank Stephen Drew higher. What do you think?  

Poll
Which 2006 Rookie Hitter will have the biggest impact?
Prince Fielder
77 votes
Jeremy Hermida
123 votes
Ian Kinsler
9 votes
Khenji Jojima
20 votes
Ronny Cedeno
2 votes
Jason Kubel
30 votes
Josh Barfield
4 votes
Josh Willingham
10 votes
Ryan Zimmerman
29 votes
Brian Anderson
3 votes

307 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 24 comments

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re
Hermida and Prince. I'd be surprised if the NL ROY comes from someone else. Barfield is my third, but I don't think he will breakout like the big two. What does everyone see these two guys doing? I see Hermida putting up .280/.355/.475 types numbers with 15-20 homers and lots of doubles as a rookie. Prince will be .270/.340/.500 with 25-30 homers as a rookie. I think Barfield will be .270/.320/.440 with 15-20 homers and a good share of doubles.

What does everyone else predict?

by ScottAZ on Jan 24, 2006 3:20 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hermida
I'm a big hermida believer.  I see him doing what you say in terms of power (15-20 HR and a load of doubles), with a similar average (.280-ish) but with an OBP of about .400.  His IsoOBO's in the minors have gone as high as .140+, and even if it's only .110 in the major's he'll still come close to a .400 OBP.  In case you didn't notive, I LOVE Hermida this year, and in the future.  I think he runs away with ROY

Fielder I see as having low 20's homers this season.  

If Kubel hasn't missed all of last year, he could easily win it too.  I wonder how his knee is going.  

Barfield won't put up the power numbers to steal it from any of these guys.  

Johjima could win it simply because of his polish and position.  

by Jgaztambide on Jan 24, 2006 3:28 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

re
I think Hermida will become a stud too, but it would be extremely difficult for a kid with limited power (right now) in a punchless lineup to walk that many times. Eventually he will be a .400OB guy along with a .500+ SLG too.

Prince will eventually become a .380OB guy with a 550-600SLG.

I don't see Barfield or Kubel ever coming close to those numbers.

by ScottAZ on Jan 24, 2006 3:54 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

fwiw
Bill James' projection for Hermida has his OBP at about .428 with a .280 Average, or something very similar to those numbers.  

Remember that plate discipline carries over extremely well from the minors to the majors

by Jgaztambide on Jan 24, 2006 4:01 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pickering
James also forecasted Calvin Pickering to exceed David Ortiz in OPS by nearly 50 points in 2005 (IIRC .967 vs .919). Don't take James' projections too seriously. He just let's his system spit out whatever it spits out as ludicrous as it may be. It's merely a toy to him - not something truly predictive.
"I may not be a class act, but I'm an American." Ron Artest on wanting to play for the Olympic team

by natsfan2005 on Jan 24, 2006 4:54 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yes, but
Well, no pojection system is ever perfect, and no one can predict performance.  There were plenty of people who thought Corey Patterson was destined for a "Breakout year", and he did nothing of the sort.  Not fair to pick on James

I usually just peruse them to get different opinions on players and see some projection systems.  I take it all with a grain of salt

by Jgaztambide on Jan 24, 2006 5:11 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"fair"
Well, I don't know what "fair" is.  Is it more fair to write off the entire "Bill James Handbook" projection system with a chuckle?  And why is it "unfair" to pick on clear misses by the system.  Sadly, I'm almost to the "chuckle" solution, now that better forecasting systems are readily available.  

I think if they want their projections to be taken seriously, some of the irresponsible projections based on small sample sizes need to be reviewed and revised.  Here are some examples:


  1. McPherson will slug .594.
  2. Pickering will slug .560.
=> Sure, these could happen - look at T.Clark.  Just not likely.

2006:
1. Ronny Cedeno will hit .310.
=
> Minor league BA by stop: .350(R), .196, .218, .213, .211., .279, .355 (245ab)
2. Ryan Howard will go .322/.397/.628.

I understand that all systems will have their biases.  And I'm not an advocate of toning down someone's projection just to be "safe".  It's one thing to predict that Bucky Jacobsen will slug .500 in Seattle (very unlikely I think, but he's been an under-utilized power source for a while now), but to project some of these other things is outrageous.  Even if Howard does go "Delgado 2000" this year, it's not a reasonable "expected result", just as it wasn't an expected result that year for Carlos, as great as he has been in his career.

New math: Let's take two fractions with different denominators and add them together. Yeah, that will work. Let's call it OPS. Brilliant!

by BobbyMac on Jan 24, 2006 8:00 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Projections
I have done some 2006 projections for my Fantasy Perspectives series which I will be starting tomorrow for the AL West teams.

Projections are just fun. The reason that I decided to do them this year are primarily for my fantasy baseball cheat sheets. Think about it, we all spend a lot of time reading baseball sites and blogs for information. We all have a ton of information, and have probably developed a lot of our own opinions on players throughout the league.

My projections are like this:
1.) I look at the age of the player.
2.) I look at the numbers and trends for the last couple of years.
3.) I think about how much playing time they will get (based on offseason moves, etc.)
4.) I try to figure out where they will bat in the batting order.
5.) I consider their team, and the players who will bat around them in the lineup,
and finally...
6.) I GUESS. Seriously, isn't that what projections are? They are semi-educated guesses. No one can predict when an injury will occur. No one can predict a sudden 50 game suspension. We all try to predict the breakout players and the flops (based on our own reasons), but we really don't know.

So again, my projections are educated guesses, and an attempt to give myself a cheat sheet for my fantasy drafts that I can feel good about as containing what I really believe will happen.

(Note - I like to think I know a lot, but I pretty much always finish in the bottom third of my leagues!)

by SethSpeaks on Jan 25, 2006 12:34 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Where's Howie Kendrick?
Seriously, does anyone really thing that Adam Kennedy will hold down Howie?

by The Rocc on Jan 24, 2006 5:35 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, but
the fact that Kendrick has less than 200 AB's above single-A will.  He's good, but not ready.  I imagine he won't be up in the middle of year, if not having to wait until September.  Kennedy is a solid option at 2b for the Angels.  They are going into the season as contenders and as long as they are in contention, Kennedy is your man.  He'll be a FA at the end of this year, so it should work out pretty good for Kendrick to have a chance to win the position out of ST in 2007.  They also have a ton of other middle infield prospects that will be competing for time by then.
"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Jan 24, 2006 5:57 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

C. Duffy
Looks like the CF job is Duffy's to lose, so I think he should be in the Top 20.  Certainly should be above Anderson Hernandez at this point.

Also, I think these should at least be honorable mention:

  • J. Huber
  • C. Hart
  • D. Pedroia
  • R. Shealy
  • W. Bankston
  • R. Garko
  • C. Snelling (if he can ever stay healthy)
  • F. Gutierrez
  • C. Aguila (if Reed is listed, he should be, too)
  • M. Kemp (I read where he could get significant playing time this year.  I'd say he has at least as good a chance as Ethier.)

by rhd on Jan 24, 2006 9:45 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Responses
Where will Huber play in 2006? Will he catch, or will John Buck?

Corey Hart? Where will he play in 2006? Not 3B, and probably not in the corner OF?

I do like Pedroia.

Where will Shealy play in Colorado?

Is Garko going to be a backup to Victor Martinez?

Franklin Gutierrez? I like him, and I'm surprised that there isn't talk of just letting him play LF if Crisp is dealt.

Aguila has too many ABs to qualify as a rookie still. Same with Chris Duffy and Omar Quintanilla and a few others.

by SethSpeaks on Jan 25, 2006 12:29 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sunglasses at night
I read a piece (rotoworld?) late last year saying that the Brewers were going to try to make Hart into a supersub this year (3b,1b,all 3 OF).  Given 2 RH OFers and lefties at both corner IF positions, this sort of makes sense, although I'm assuming Hall gets 3b against tough lefties.

I would assume that the Brewers would want to keep Hart playing nearly full-time somewhere.

New math: Let's take two fractions with different denominators and add them together. Yeah, that will work. Let's call it OPS. Brilliant!

by BobbyMac on Jan 26, 2006 12:24 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Reply
Seth,  

Duffy has only 126 MLB ABs and Aguila has only 123.  That makes them rookies for roto purposes for most prospect mavens I'm familiar with (including BA).  What is your cutoff for rookie eligibility?

I dont whether or not the players I listed as honorable mentions will be starters for most of the season, but the same can be said for many of the guys you listed in your top 20.  Re: Huber, I dont see where he has much left to prove in the miinors, and I cant imagine that Mientciewicz will keep him out of the lineup for long.  But then again, these are the Royals we're talking about.

by rhd on Jan 26, 2006 2:04 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Garko & Gutierrez!
Hello everyone,

SethSpeaks - Garko is beginning 2006 at AAA Buffalo to work on his defense at 1B as the Indians see him as a future 1B, not as a catcher (not even as a backup catcher; he would probably be the emergency, 3rd-string catcher, as he is catching one day a week, but it's likely Einar Diaz or Tim Laker will be the backup to Martinez if Bard is traded and either Shoppach is not acquired or is sent to Philadelphia or elsewhere.)

Gutierrez - I think the Indians want him to get more AAA experience as he was just starting to handle the AAA level the final month or two in 2005 (such as an improved walk rate and more consistent hitting.)  Personally, I think he should spend at least the first half of 2006 at AAA, just to make sure he is ready to contribute in 2007 and beyond.

That's why the Indians are interested in acquiring Jason Michaels, in my opinion:  they see him as a one-year stop-gap for 2006 until Gutierrez, Francisco, Snyder, Mulhern, Cooper, etc. are ready to contribute in 2007 and beyond.  After 2006, the Indians would probably make Michaels a bench player/4th outfielder or let him go.  

Therefore, I believe Garko and Gutierrez can contribute in 2006, but probably not until the second half of 2006.  It's more likely they will contribute in 2007, in my opinion.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a great day!

by indiansfan on Jan 25, 2006 3:54 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gutierrez
Indiansfan, what kind of potential do you think Franklin has? Do you see him as a long-term answer, or do you see Snyder or one of the other prospects becoming a starter? Thanks ... and have a great day.

by Flynn Blake on Jan 25, 2006 4:09 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good question, Flynn!
Hello Flynn,

Good question! :-)

To be honest, I'm not sure which outfielders will make it and stay with the Indians for the long-term, as I mentioned five different ones

Gutierrez
Francisco
Snyder
Mulhern (he's taking balls in the OF; with Garko, Aubrey, and Head coming, I think he will move to the OF, as I believe he played the OF in college.)
Cooper

I'm presuming that Sizemore will stay for the long term and Blake will certainly go within a few years.  Crisp, I'm not sure about - he could be here for a while, but I get that feeling, at some point, he will be traded - perhaps now, perhaps later.  Therefore, I think two of the OF prospects will have the chance to "stick" for a while.  The question is, which two?

Right now, I think it comes down to Gutierrez, Snyder, and Mulhern, though I think Francisco could force his way in if he hit like he did in the Mexican League this offseason - 17 or 23 HRs (not sure, but a significant power increase, along with a power increase at AA Akron.)  

Cooper I think is a long shot, as he's older than the others and seems to have been bypassed by the younger OFs of Gutierrez, Francisco, and Mulhern, all likely to start at AAA in 2006, with Snyder probably still at AA to begin 2006, but with a higher ceiling than Cooper as well.

Referring to Gutierrez, I think he has the inside track on one of the 2 OF spots; right now, I think he might hit anywhere from 15-25 HRs, be able to hit from .270-.300+, depending on whether his strike zone discipline holds or not (it improved at AAA Buffalo in 2005) and steal 20-30 bases a season.  

In some ways, he reminds me a bit of New York Mets prospect Lastings Milledge in that I don't think he will hit for a ton of power, though possibly more than Milledge, but perhaps with a lower OBP than Milledge.  

Defensively, he supposedly has a very good arm and very good range.  The question is, will he be a better CF than Grady Sizemore and force Sizemore to move?  The only reason I think it's possible is because Gutierrez has a stronger arm than Sizemore and comparable range.  If he doesn't move Sizemore, most likely he will take over in RF, which is probably likely, since I think the Indians like Sizemore in CF, even though his arm is only average.  

As for the other OF prospect to make it, Snyder might have the best overall talent, but Mulhern is closer and his power surge last year I think opened the Indians' front office's eyes.  Chances are that I think Mulhern will make it to Cleveland first as he will probably start at AAA Buffalo to begin 2006.  

If I were the Indians, I would hold Snyder back at AA Akron to start 2006 because his BB/K ratio could still improve a bit.  Therefore, I think Mulhern may have the other OF spot for a little while - then, either Snyder will force Mulhern to go back to 1B, meaning that Garko will be forced out (unlikely, but possible,) Mulhern will force out Gutierrez in RF if Gutierrez struggles to hit ML pitching, or Mulhern will be out of Cleveland.  

Another possibility for Mulhern is if Snyder is traded, but I think Snyder's overall potential is higher than Mulhern's, so unless the Indians are "bowled over" by an offer, I don't think that Snyder will be traded.

Francisco could force his way in there if he continues to play like he did in 2005, or at worst, be a 4th outfielder, as some had projected before his 2005 power surge.

Cooper, I have my doubts about.  He improved a bit in 2005, but I'm not sure he will be a consistent offensive force as he's never really hit for a high average at AA or AAA and his BB/K has not been great at AA or AAA either; plus, being older than the others, I think he will be forced out (possibly trade bait.)

Just my 2 cents. :-)  I hope this was helpful for you.  Let me know if you have any more questions or thoughts on Gutierrez or any of the other Indians' prospects.

Take care and have a great day! :-)

by indiansfan on Jan 25, 2006 7:28 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gutierrez
He did great in the venezuelan winter league.

by jahs34 on Jan 25, 2006 10:26 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re: VL
I'd bet some Venezuelans we've never heard of did well in that league too.
"I may not be a class act, but I'm an American." Ron Artest on wanting to play for the Olympic team

by natsfan2005 on Jan 25, 2006 10:44 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes
But not with the youth and upside of Gutierrez.

by jahs34 on Jan 26, 2006 10:35 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Conor Jackson
How about Conor Jackson? Stephen Drew/Carlos Quentin as well.

by murraygd13 on Jan 25, 2006 1:20 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jackson
I had Jackson ranked #16. I only have him that low because of the presence of Tony Clark. It will be very interesting to see how that plays out.

Stephen Drew I just mentioned as Just Missed. I think he will come up this year, but I think it'll be closer to August or September. If sooner, he should definitely be higher.

I have Carlos Quentin at #11. Had the team not signed Eric Byrnes, I think Quentin would be just fine as the D-Backs every day CF.

by SethSpeaks on Jan 25, 2006 2:12 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I have...
much man-love for Hermida. One of my favorite players already and the guy hasn't even played in a full season yet.

I can see him hitting .260/.350/.450 this season, and improving every year after.

Also a big fan of Kubel. I can definitely see him putting up a .290-.300/.350-.360/.460-.470 line.

Those are my two favorites. Fielder should also be very, very impressive.

Not much of a Barfield fan, but I am somewhat interested in the Marlins Rule V 2B. He looks like he may be a good hitter.

by SenorGato88 on Jan 25, 2006 7:41 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

funny
I picked Hermida 2 years ago for a strat team, and I was actually watching the game when he got his first PA and hit that grand slam.  That was one of the biggest baseball highlights from 2005 for me!

I also have Kubel in strat.  I had Kal Daniels back when he was a rookie too, and I'm having evil flashbacks. :(

New math: Let's take two fractions with different denominators and add them together. Yeah, that will work. Let's call it OPS. Brilliant!

by BobbyMac on Jan 26, 2006 12:29 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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