thunderdome: A-ball outfielders
by wily mo on Jan 18, 2006 9:23 PM EST
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PrintThere are six toolsy and/or slugging A-ball outfielders who I find myself thinking of as sort of a posse. So I'm going to make them fight to see which one wins. Using a poll.
Six toolsy/and or slugging A-ball outfielders enter! One toolsy and/or slugging A-ball outfielder leaves!
Please elaborate on your choice in the thread. I have an opinion but I am not going to tip my hand until I see which way the wind is blowing here.
(BTW: this is NOT a secretly fantasy-related diary)
UPDATE: some stats:
Herrera: .275/.374/.444 in 360 AB at age 20 in the Midwest League (low-A), 13 HR, 26/5 SB/CS, 47/110 BB/K - CF
Pence: .338/.413/.653 in 302 AB at age 22 in SAL (low-A), 25 HR, 38/53 BB/K - CF now, looks like LF
Kemp: .306/.349/.569 in 418 AB at age 20 in the FSL (hi-A), 27 HR (22 at Vero), 23/6 SB/CS, 25/92 BB/K - CF now, probable RF
Gonzales: .307/.371/.489 in 515 AB at age 19 in the Midwest (low-A), 18 HR, 48/86 BB/K - probable RF
Jones: .295/.374/.494 in 271 AB at age 19 in Cal League (Hi-A), 8 HR, 29/64 BB/K, then .298/.365/.461 in 228 AB in AA, 7 HR, 22/48 BB/K - ex-pitcher, played SS, moving to CF - didn't realize he spent so much time in AA
EME: .313/.427/.524 in 479 AB at age 21 in Cal League (Hi-A), 17 HR, 89/82 BB/K - LF now, looks like DH
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safe choice
So I tried a different strategy; I chose Gonzalez because I'm sure he's not the worst prospect and I feared he wouldn't get as many votes as some of the more recognizable names on the list. As it turns out, he's doing fine in the early goings...
by FI @ Minor League Ball on Jan 18, 2006 9:50 PM EST reply actions
I don't know enough
Do you have perhaps some stats or descriptions of each?
i picked kemp
1- at 6'4 220, he's built like a brickwall and being a former basketball player, very athletic for his size.
2- His power is legit. an ISOp of .211 in the SAL in 2004 and an ISOp of 263 in the FSL.
3- his speed SB ability is underrated. Stole 23 bases at a 70% rate. He is probably like a bobby abreu in that catagorey; not overall that fast, but has a knack for knowing how to steal.
4- he has cut his K rate over the last two years from 23.6% of his ABs in the SAL to 22% in the FSL.
5- he is still an increbily raw player. Meaning, this isnt as good as it gets for kemp. He has only played baseball fulltime for about 2-3 years. in HS he was a 2 sport player in baseball and basketball. His plate discipline is improving and with his great power, pitchers will try and pitch around him. Hes never going to have a 100+ ISOd, but i could see it settling into 50-70 annually.
kemp not a bad choice
I also discounted him a bit for being older than my choice and playing in a hitter's park.
by FI @ Minor League Ball on Jan 18, 2006 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
jones
Carlos Gonzales' 2005 Stats
RF, Low-A South Bend Silver Hawks
158-515, 18 HR, 6 3B, 28 2B, 92 RBI, 91 R, 86/48 K/BB, 7/3 SB/CS, .307/.371/.489, .860 OPS
Named Top Prospect of the Midwest League by the League's managers.
by William K @ Minor League Ball on Jan 18, 2006 10:08 PM EST reply actions
Herrera
Next, I would have taken Kemp. I am concerned about his plate discipline and to some extent the k's, but everything else looks good. He is extremely raw but he has all the tools. Next year is a big year for him in Double A and an impressive showing likely vaults him into elite prospect status.
Gonzo
But I got to pick Carlos Gonzales. He has a more complete skill set, in particular he controls the strikezone better than everyone else save for Pence and EME, who are both older than him. Kemp's big edge is in power, but its not as dramatic as it seems because Vero Beach is a great homerun park.
When/if Carlos Gonzalez takes over Luis Gonzalez' spot in the Arizona outfield, does he also get his nickname?
Pence's talent is unparalleled
Jones is far ahead
First, the only way that Eddie Martinez-Esteve is anything other than a DH is if he plays 1B. He needs to go to an AL team. He doesn't like to play defense, and he sucks at it. That limits his value. I am sorta surpised to see him on this list, since he is so different than the other three players.
Among the others, I think that Jones is the better player. His stats are good, despite the fact that he spent the most time in AA. He is also the youngest player on this list, and didn't turn 20 until the end of the season. He made the transition from the CAL league to the Texas League without seeing his numbers decline. At age 19. That is impressive.
The other thing that puts Jones ahead is his defensive value. Of those guys, Jones is not only the only one that will likely stick in CF, but he projects to be a very good player there. His arm is a weapon, and he has good speed. His athleticism will also be a big help out there.
Really, all of these guys are pretty even offensively (well, with the exception of EVE). However, Jones will be putting up nice numbers while helping save runs with his glove and arm.
And he just might end up having the best bat of the group as well.
by Jerry @ Minor League Ball on Jan 19, 2006 12:00 AM EST reply actions
hmm
One more thing
Jones
Gonzalez
EME
Kemp
Herrera
Pence
Why?
I already explained why I like Jones. Thus, I will focus on the others.
-Gonzalez needs to prove it at a higher level, but he has everything: lefty bat, plate discipline, power, speed, good defense, great arm. Although he played the entire season in low-A, he is only 19.
-EME is so different from the rest of these players that it is hard to compare, but he could be the best hitter. He could be Manny if everything works out perfectly. Edgar Martinez is probably the best comp. Look at his K/BB. That is promising. This guy can hit. Too bad he is destined to DH.
-Kemp's got nice power numbers, but he needs to prove he can continue to hit like that outside of the Cal league. He is an interesting player, but you would expect better command of the strike zone for a guy his age playing at A+. Plus, BA says that he is primarily a fastball hitter. He will need to adjust to breaking balls in AA, or he won't see anything else.
-Herrera has a really poor K/BB rate at Low-A at age 20. He's got the worst OPS on this list, despite spending the most time at the lowest level among this group. That would put him at the bottom of this list. However, Herrera has great tools, and is still a pretty raw player. His upside moves him up above Pence. However, he also has a good chance of totally imploding.
-Pence has nice stats, but he did that at age 22 in low-A. The age versus level of experience is a big issue here. When he moved to High-A, his stats are not as impressive as the other guys on this list: .305/.374/.490 with 18/37 BB/K and 6 Hrs in 151 ABs (this is not listed above). Not terrible, but not that good either. Word is that he has a big hole in his swing as well. I can see him flopping.
by Jerry @ Minor League Ball on Jan 19, 2006 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
kemp
he never played in the CAL league. he played in the FSL. and he hit like that in the SAL, FSL and AFL.
yeah, I thought
by Azteca on Jan 19, 2006 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
Oops
The point is the same though: Kemp hit a lot of HRs at Vero Beach. His home/road splits are crazy. He was clearly helped a lot by his environment.
Kemp is a good prospect, but I don't think that he is on the same level as those other two (Jones and EME) as a hitter yet. Gonzalez is still raw, but he is a really impressive guy, especially putting up those types of numbers in the Midwest league at his age. If Kemp can keep doing that in AA, while maybe improving his walk rates, it would help his stock a lot.
But still, I think the gap between the top three and the bottom three is pretty big.
by Jerry @ Minor League Ball on Jan 19, 2006 1:23 AM EST up reply actions
Pence played college ball
I would like to read the article that you have seen that says he has a hole in his swing. I have never heard that. In fact I read that his swing is fairly compact and he chokes up on the bat.
Nice stats..but...
When he got to High-A, he didn't flop or anything, but his numbers are not staggering: .305/.374/.490 with 18/37 BB/K and 6 Hrs in 151 AB. This is a small sample, admittedly.
Is he a bad prospect? Of course not. But he needs to hit at a higher level to really be in the same league as Jones and Gonzalez. He has three years on both of them.
by Jerry @ Minor League Ball on Jan 19, 2006 1:31 AM EST up reply actions
EME
no it's not
what it really is is just the six outfielders who played primarily in A-ball last year that stand out the most in my mind. not counting milledge and butler, who are already pretty much in the elite category.
i might not have put jones on the list if i'd realized that he spent almost as much time in AA as he did in A+, but c'est la guerre.
re
sure,
how was edgar's defense really? they always say he quit playing 3B because of his knees, but is that just a polite way of saying that he sucked? i don't remember. but the fact that he ever played a game in the field at 3B in the majors indicates to me that he was probably a better defensive player than EME.
Edgar's glove
It was his legs in total, not just his knees.
by kc @ Minor League Ball on Jan 19, 2006 12:52 AM EST up reply actions
added note
"A complete hitter that needs to be challenged w/ a promotion. He's started to play the field more as SF hopes it can turn him into a LF, or at worst a 1B. His bat will play anywhere, & it has very few flaws. He's a similar player to Chris Snelling. 29 teams are ashamed they passed on his bat because he couldn't play defense. (83/89 BB/K)"
Edgar played
As a Mariner fan, and admittedly
...In Jerry's defense, he may have goofed on a couple stats, but I have read his posts elsewhere and he usually has good insight.
by kc @ Minor League Ball on Jan 19, 2006 12:56 AM EST reply actions
Messed up stats?
I thought that the original post had more errors, including age and some omissions.
by Jerry @ Minor League Ball on Jan 19, 2006 1:33 AM EST up reply actions
Hunter Pence from Dayn Perry
"84. Hunter Pence, OF, Astros, 22
Acquired: 2nd round, 2004, U. of Texas-Arlington
Here you have one of the niftiest under-the-radar position prospects around. Pence's tools don't wow scouts, but last season he utterly dismantled the Sally League (.338 AVG/.413 OBP/.652 SLG). Granted the Sally League is lowest of full-season circuits and shouldn't pose grave problems to a college-trained hitter drafted in the second round, but those numbers comfortably exceed even those standards. He hit 31 homers across two levels last season, but some observers think his perfectly awkward swing won't translate to the higher levels. That remains to be seen. Right now, however, Pence looks good going forward."
by kc @ Minor League Ball on Jan 19, 2006 1:18 AM EST reply actions
Other scouting reports
"Pence doesn't look pretty at the plate, choking up on the bat and employing a hitch in his swing, but he has quick hands than enable him to get into good hitting position....Some scouts wonder if more advanced pitchers will take advantage of Pence's hitch by pounding him inside."
I think that the age/level is the biggest issue with him though. If he did that in high-A, then got a promotion to AA, then he would be further up the list. It kinda sucks to punish a guy for how he is handled, but his stats dropped off a LOT when he went to high-A.
by Jerry @ Minor League Ball on Jan 19, 2006 1:37 AM EST up reply actions
Pence's high A stats 304/374/490
Better than Gonzales at low A
The same as Jones in High A
The drop-off was 200 OPS points, but his low A OPS was 200 points better than the guys stats.
Pence's first year
Again this line is better than almost all the other guys. At this point he has shown a better plate performance than any of the other guys in the minors. He is the class of this group up to this point. I'm guessing all of them will see a good time in AA and they will thrive or sputter.
Age matters
For instance, you say that Pence did just as well as Jones in high-A last year. But he is a few years older. Meanwhile, Jones played half the year in AA without any drop in production.
Jones will be in the big leagues by the time he is the same age Pence is now.
You are just really really wrong.
by Jerry @ Minor League Ball on Jan 20, 2006 1:37 AM EST up reply actions
age does not matter
I guess you just like young boys instead of older ones.
awkward, yes
He chokes up pretty high on the bat and is not that conventional, but his swing is not long. That is the key. If it is compact now then he can always lengthen it by swinging harder, but it is not vice versa. If you have a long swing with holes it is almost never possible to shorten(compact) it.
He runs about 6'4 2skinny. He is built like Dontrelle Willis, all knees and elbows. His hitting prowess will not be denied next year when he moves 2-4 levels.
Adam Jones
re
Plus, I'd take him and move him back to SS were he'd be a premium level prospect.
What prompted the move to begin with?
re
It had nothing to do with Jones' ability. He was regarded as a fine defensive SS with a cannon arm and the only draw back being having less than spectacular range.
Ah, thanks.
re
I'm of the offensive SS preference anyways, so I'd take a Jones that hits .290 and 20-25 bombs with solid defense over a Betancourt that hits .270 and 5 homers with great defense.
Understand...
Chicks dig the longball!
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