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Crystal Ball: Lastings Milledge

Crystal Ball: Lastings Milledge

AP (Los Angeles, January 5, 2023)
    Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Lastings Milledge announced his retirement today at age 37. The two-time All-Star outfielder decided on retirement after Dodgers General Manager Matt Stairs told him that the club could not guarantee him a roster spot for 2023. "We would have been happy to have Lastings return on a non-roster basis for spring training," Stairs told USA Today, "but we couldn't guarantee that he'd make the team."
    "I have no hard feelings," said Milledge, "and I understand the position of the team. But I'm too old to go scrambling for a job anymore. So I thought I'd hang it up." Milledge, who won a batting title with the Colorado Rockies in 2015, says his only regret is not having won a World Series ring. "We came close once with Detroit, but it's the main thing I wish I could have done."

Lastings Milledge

Those are fake stats, of course. I did not base this on any fancy formulas, just educated guess of what his career might look like.

Note that in the text I wrote that he made two All-Star teams and won a batting title with the Rockies. Questions for you:

Which are the two All-Star seasons?
Describe the transactions you see between the lines above.
Do you think this is a realistic projection?

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the best part
was the "Matt Stairs, GM of the Dodgers..."  I love that!

I'll say his '14 and '15 seasons for All Star.

No idea on the transactions--Mets gave up on him, FLA as a free agent, salary dump by FLA moving him to Detroit, Cubs GM Mickey Morandini makes a bad signing, and so does Staris the following season.

Seems reasonable.  Can't help but think Rondell White in looking at the numbers.  Seems to have a little more power and potential speed, but they are reasonable.

by So Cal Bob on Sep 6, 2005 5:14 PM EDT reply actions  

RE
Personally, I doubt he will K as much as that, especially in Coors. The '09 trade was straightup for Jeff Francis [who was toiling in denvers and getting expesive], who went on to win the Cy Young in '10 after being freed from Coors.

I still get the feeling Milledge is a bust unless he gets a good nickname. I just can see a guy named Lastings as an all-star. It just doesn't have a good ring to it. [I feel the same way about Eddy M-E]

Objectively, I think Milledge will improve his SB success rate as he matures, as well as have better [not by a huge margin] plate discipline. IF Beltran is around as a mentor.

I also don't see him getting 124 AB's in 06, unless Cameron is out of the picture.

by irwin @ Minor League Ball on Sep 6, 2005 5:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Stolen Bases
Milledge has 39 SBs this year between St Lucie and Binghampton. With Randolph as the manager for the forseeable future, I'd guess that he will run a lot more his first few years.

by MarkS on Sep 6, 2005 5:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Milledge
2011 and 2015 are his all-star years. Both of those years his runs and rbi's were in the triple digits and his power numbers (doubles and home runs) were high as well. Higher average as well both of those years.

Transactions: Mets got tired of waiting; he got too expensive for the Rockies who traded him and Victor Diaz to the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera; the Marlins then traded him to the Tigers for their playoff push in 2018 who then dumped him the following year when they fell out of contention earlier than expected. The other teams just picked him up via free agency.

I think it is a very realistic projection. I don't know exactly what his power potential is, evidentally you feel his is more of a high average, high double guy. Mike Sweeney or Rondell White type. I could also see him turning into the next Gary Sheffield, with more speed mind you.

by royalslfr on Sep 6, 2005 5:54 PM EDT reply actions  

re
First off, this is a great topic and would like to see more like it. How about a Delmon Young thread?

Now to answer the questions:

#1- All-star years are 2014-2015, when at age 29-30 with the Rockies he appeared to be breaking through as one of the games premier stars with his combo of a high ave, some pop and speed, and of course his Gold Glove defense (which you forgot to mention he won 6 times in his long career).

#2- His transactions line and career progression was:

Traded from the Mets to the Rockies in 2008 for hurlers Doug Jennings when the Mets needed a top flight pitcher for their pennant run. He Colorado for a lucrative free agent deal with Florida after the 2015 season. After being a relative dissapointment and playing with little fire for the lowly Marlins, the Detroit Tigers, in need of a big bat for the 2018 pennant run, traded for Milledge and his bat caught fire as he led them to the AL Central pennant. Once in the plaoffs, Milledge carried the upstart Tigers into game 7 of the ALCS before falling to the Yankees who went on the win the World Series. The following season the Tigers got off to a slow start, as did Milledge, in his final year of his lucrative contract he signed in 2015. The Dodgers traded for him at mid-season, hoping he could replicate what he did for Detroit the year before and lead them into the postseason. Ultimately, both he and the Dodgers fell short of those goals and they did not even attempt to resign him after the season was over. At age 35 he was no longer the sought after commodity as he was 5 years before on the open market, and he signed a one year deal with the Cubs hoping he could show he had gas left in the tank. he performed admirably in a platoon job, and got his two year deal back with the Dodgers for the 2021-2022 seasons in which he played semi-regurily, after which he retired.

#3- I think you sell his speed way too short as others have already mentioned. I see him reaching a high of around 40 in his prime, and averaging between 25-35 for most of his career. His averages look about right, and so does his power for the most part, but I predict he reaches a season high of over 30 rather than the 25 you give him.

by ScottAZ on Sep 6, 2005 6:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Realistic? Yes.
I think Milledge is a pretty tough candidate to start this feature off with, because I really can't think of too many other prospects who have more possible paths ahead of them. He has a chance to become almost any outfielder in the majors. Great stuff so far though.

I doubt his SB success rate will be so low, but even as is this career compares pretty solidly with that of Johnny Damon.

His All-Star seasons . . .obviously his 2015 season is one of them. 2014 would be the other, I suppose.

by mrkupe on Sep 6, 2005 6:26 PM EDT reply actions  

all star seasons
2015 is likely one of them... my guess that season is he was flirting with .400 at voting time, but then hit .300 or so after the break...

May I speculate that the other all-star season is 2017 for the Marlins as the team's required lone representative, leading the outcries for a rule change for the X-tieth year in a row. =)  Do the Marlins have a new stadium by now?

Trying to figure out who the Mets got from the Rockies in the Milledge deal... 2009?  Thinking Helton or maybe a Garrett Atkins as he approaches free agency...

2016 - signs as free agent with Marlins who are fortunate the Coors withdrawal didn't plague him that much, but recognize the bullet they dodged trading him to Detroit in 2018 in a pure salary dump getting a couple of grade C single-A pitchers

by SLK on Sep 6, 2005 7:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Pretty darn good job!
John, I love it - thanks and great job on this! Too bad Lastings didn't play for any post-2010 expansion teams in the newly formed Caribbean League (Mexico, Costa Rica, DR, PR, etc.) ;) More realistically, what about the new Las Vegas and Portland franchises to balance out the AL West (with Texas moving to the Central)?

Anyhow, to break with the pack:

  1. all-star is 2011. In 2010, Helton still had a stellar year and was the lone rep from the Rocks, but 2011, Helton and free agent pickup Bobby Crosby sandwiched Lastings in the lineup. By 2015, Helton was gone and Lastings had a great hitting year, but weak support. Or something. 2014-2015 make more sense to me.
  2. In 2009, the New York Mets and Colorado Rockies swapped struggling youngers (and both former steroid users heh), with Lastings going to Colorado and Jorge Piedra going to the Mets.
In late 2015, the Florida Marlins signed Lastings to a 5 year contract (the new max under the new CBA) worth $110MM, but Lastings proved once again the Denver-factor, as his numbers swooned, along with a nagging shoulder injury from crashing the fence in a Game 7 NLCS loss to eventual 2005 World Series champs, the St. Louis Cardinals (sorry, couldn't resist).

In 2018, the Marlins traded Lastings to the 2-time defending World Champion Detroit Tigers (due to a recent resurgence under manager Ivan Rodriguez). The Tigers parted with their 2019 first round draft pick, as well as veteran OF Coco Crisp, SP Jeremy Halverson, and top AAA prospect, OF Nikolai Bonds. Alas, the Tigers were eliminated in a 6-game world series by the Puerto Rico Marlins.

Lastings severely sprained his bad shoulder in a spring training collision with OF Brent Clevlin and never rebounded in the 1st half of the season. Disgruntled with his playing time, Lastings requested and received a trade to the Dodgers for prospects.

Despite a free agent pickup by the Cubs in 2020, Los Angeles was where Lasting's heart was. He returned for a couple mediocre years, before being replaced on the roster by Jayson Werth, Jr.

3) Yeah, you are probably short on the SBs. I'd say if he played in Colorado he'd probably pick up his power numbers a bit too - you have him topping at 23 HRs in Colorado. I think Joe McEwing could do that. I also think you have his decline a bit off... I'd see him continue to hit, but just kind of breaking down - more like Reggie Sanders currently is. The decline you have him on looks more to me like a slugger's decline.

Lastly, was this based off my suggestion??? Can we get one for Jeff Clement?

by Rochioli on Sep 6, 2005 7:58 PM EDT reply actions  

er...
in 2, I meant 2015 champs, not 2005 champs. I'm not that bold.

by Rochioli on Sep 6, 2005 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

But John,
Whatever became of Todd Greene, for whom the Mets traded Milledge (straight up!) in 2009? Does he go on to open that car wash with his buddy Victor Zambrano or not?

by CouncilmanJim on Sep 6, 2005 8:23 PM EDT reply actions  

Obivous
2011 following his 'breakout' first year with the Rockies and then 2015 during his ginormous career year of Doom.  Who's the Rockies' allstar during some of the solid years he has in Colorado but isn't their emissary to the ASG?

by NBarnes on Sep 6, 2005 9:34 PM EDT reply actions  

61%
61% SB rate. That's impossibly low, don't you think?

I think he's got more speed than you advertise, but the HR numbers look good.

He sure does seem to get injured a lot - has this been a problem during his minor-league career?

by Klostrophobic on Sep 6, 2005 9:51 PM EDT reply actions  

.368
Had to be one of the all-star years, and it looks like 2011 was the other one that might have earned it, or his 97 RBI season for Florida, provided they still play in a pitcher's stadium.
Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Sep 6, 2005 10:42 PM EDT reply actions  

more at bats
Atleast he got more major league at bats than Moonlight Graham.
Happiness is not having what you want, but wanting what you have.

by Goodfella on Sep 7, 2005 12:47 AM EDT reply actions  

re: Milledge
I think the important thing here is that the Tigers came close to winning a World Series.  I'll take it, man.

by tonyinstl on Sep 7, 2005 9:21 AM EDT reply actions  

Steals
I think it depends on the type of player Milledge wants to become.  Look at a guy like Andruw Jones - he had 20 steals each of his first 4 seasons in the majors, but then he bulked up and has essentially stopped stealing.  If Milledge tries to be a major power hitter, he'll probably get too big to run a lot.  If he, and the Mets, are content with more of a doubles hitter, then he'll probably be good for around 25-30 a year.

by AJ25 on Sep 7, 2005 12:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Oh well. I wonder who the Mets get for him?
So the Mets are not going to stop their trend of trading players who become superstars as soon as they're gone from NY?

by erich11226 on Sep 7, 2005 2:09 PM EDT reply actions  

RE
Which are the two All-Star seasons? 2013 (he was off to a red hot start, which earned him a spot on the all star team, but after sliding in head first, he was forced to miss a couple of weeks, and he struggled after the injury), 2015

Describe the transactions you see between the lines above.
2009: the Mets trade the struggling outfielder for another once top prospect that is struggling also, Jeff Francis, hoping that getting away from Coors would help Francis.
2015-2016:  After having a fantastic, Millege is ready for the big bucks.  He is involved in a bidding war between the Cubs and the DIamondbacks (millege prefered the Cubs).  The LAS VEGAS  Marlins, having just lost a bidding war for  Delmon YOung, make a a long-term offer that Millege can't refuse.

  1.  Millege had some strong seasons for the Marlins.  Unfortunately, the Marlins are in last place.  They trade Millege to the AL Central leading Tigers for a 21year-old first baseman in AA (an A prospect),  a 23 yr-old reliever in AA, and a 26 yr old middle-infielder in the majors.
  2. Millege disapoints, and is traded to the Dodgers for new AARP member, Julio Franco
2019-2020: Millege signs a one year contract with the Cubs
2020-2021: MIllege makes the Dodgers in spring traing after sigining a minor league contract

Do you think this is a realistic projection?
Yes, these stats seem similar to many players out of the minors that are hyped as a "5-tool" player

"A hot dog at the ball park is better than steak at the Ritz." ~Humphrey Bogart

by mrmetaa on Sep 7, 2005 3:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Transactions
2006 - Mets

Up with NY for rookie season.

2009 - Mets to Rockies

After poor production following his breakout year, the Mets give up on Milledge and deal him to the Rockies for too little in return.

2010 - Rockies

After a nice second-half rebound in 2009, Colorado signs Milledge to a long term deal for what they beleive is a bargain, given his age and potential.  Lastings and his agent are pleased to ink a lucrative contract considering he's only had 1.5 productive seasons under his belt.

2016 - Marlins

The Rockies say goodbye to Milledge after getting the best years of his career for relatively little money.  Amazing restraint.  Lasting's salary demands are incredible following his MVP-caliber season.  The Marlins bite and ink a huge 4-year contract.

2018 - Marlins to Tigers

In the midst of a "disappointing" season (per his salary, not ability and age) the Fish trade Lastings to Detroit for a highly-regarded, toolsy CF in AA and situational lefty Adam Loewen.  In return, they agree to eat half of Milledge's salary.  Detroit hopes for and gets a middle-of-the-order bat to propell them to the playoffs.  

2019 - Tigers to LA

The Tigers, going nowhere after their big push in '18, deal the high priced Milledge to LA to help with a postseason drive that falls short.

2020 - Cubs

One-year deal with the Cubs.  Milledge hits most of the targets in the incentive laden contract.

2021 - LA

The Dodgers sign Milledge to an overly generous, "remember the good days" contract.  He's no longer starting lineup material and, before long, it shows.

All-Star appearances in 2011 and 2015.

by tycobb420 on Sep 8, 2005 1:47 PM EDT reply actions  

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