Khalil Greene Projection Review

by John Sickels on Sep 18, 2005 11:40 AM EDT in News

Khalil Greene (AP photo)

Projection Reviews

First, Khalil Greene.

Community: .279 BA, .352 OBP, .458 SLG, 16 HR, 9 steals in 531 AB
Forecaster: .266 BA, .325 OBP, .424 SLG, 14 HR, 5 steals in 515 AB
Prospectus: .260 BA, .327 OBP, .424 SLG, 15 HR, 3 steals in 467 AB
Bill James: .273 BA, .335 OBP, .446 SLG, 15 HR, 4 steals in 487 AB
ZIPS BTT: .275 BA, .342 OBP, .428 SLG, 15 HR, 3 steals in 528 AB
Sickels: .281 BA, .347 OBP, .422 SLG, 12 HR, 4 steals in 502 AB
REALITY: .251 BA, .295 OBP, .419 SLG, 12 HR, 4 steals in 394 AB

I am NOT happy with Khalil Greene's performance this year. I thought he'd do a lot better than this. The projections were close in slugging percentage and homers, but way off in batting average and OBP.
I'd be interested in observations from Padres fans or others who have seen Khalil play a lot this year. What's up with him? The numbers indicate that he's gone backwards. What's the explanation?

Tweet Comment 5 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Injuries?

Maybe the broken toe and finger and any leftover discomfort are making him tentative in the batters box. Though last night's game sure shows he can swing it in a pressure situation.

Watching him play this year, defensively he's been a little more hesitant than he was last year. Last year he was flopping around diving every which way. This year, he doesn't seem as aggressive overall.

Or maybe it's just a sophmore slump.

by Dex @ Minor League Ball on Sep 18, 2005 12:33 PM EDT reply actions

Work in Progress

Injuries definitely have something to do with it. Everytime he suffers an injury he tends to need time to come back as far as hitting goes. He also tends to make a lot of stance adjustments and so certain games become failed experiments where his new stance does not work out. His main thing is that he loves the fastballs. At times he's been able to fight off the breaking stuff, but overall he's struggled against pitchers that can locate a curve or slider. I also think at times he's a little too patient, and will take a borderline pitch with two strikes and get called out on strikes. This especially bothers me when he's batting 8th with two outs and there is a runner on second or third. But grand slams in the 9th when down by 4 help alleviate some of these problems.

by wonkothesane on Sep 19, 2005 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions

injuries

I picked the Friars to run away with the division relying heavily on Greene taking the next step (though Peavy factored in for sure). The injuries have really come at bad times for them all the way around (Hernandez not the least).

I think Greene's struggles this year are wholly injury related. His finger and toe as mentioned. You can tell he can't push off for snap grabs on defense nearly as well and hits a fair number of weak liners/grounders that look like they should be shots given his stroke. Couple that with standard sophmore stuff.

I think he still has the potential to put up 20+ hr w/35+ 2Bs and a near .300 BA with gold glove minus caliber defense given his college eye and defense last year. However, a lot of guys have been done in by the injury bug. I am betting he comes back next year to at least .280 and 15-18 homers, but not being able to stay healthy worries me more than a little. Still just 26 next year.

by roaddog on Sep 19, 2005 11:02 PM EDT reply actions

Maybe we ran his projection review too soon

Three for five with 2 round trippers. The Padres still have games in Colorado.

Quick, John! Do a projection review on a couple more Padres! The projection review karma is working!

by Dex @ Minor League Ball on Sep 20, 2005 2:33 AM EDT reply actions

I don't like him

He's overrated defensively and has regressed offensively this year. He swings for the fences in every at bat and tries to pull everything. Until he changes his approach, he's going to look like Alex Gonzalez (Marlins) at the plate. He needs to be more patient.

by UncleMiltie on Sep 20, 2005 7:12 PM EDT reply actions