Crystal Ball: Mark Teixeira

by John Sickels on Sep 16, 2005 2:23 PM EDT in News Comment 22 comments

Per request of Jamey Newberg from the excellent website www.newbergreport.com, a Crystal Ball for Rangers slugger Mark Teixeira.

ASSUMPTIONS:
Teixeira will have a normal development curve, his power production gradually increasing into his early 30s, but with a concurrent gradual decline in batting average most seasons and a fade in overall productivity as his career progresses. I threw in a couple of injury seasons, and gradual loss of playing time due to nagging injuries, age, etc. Parallels would include guys like Fred McGriff or Willie McCovey.
This is something of a best-case scenario, as many hitters similar to Teixeira fade more quickly than what is shown here, the "old player skill" effect. I originally ran this out through age 39, and had Teixeira at 587 career homers. I figured if he got that close that he'd play one more year to shoot for 600, so I added an age-40 season.
I am assuming that league-context offense shows a decline from the elevated offensive levels of the late 90s. . .the league leaders during this era will be in the upper 40s or lower 50s in homers each year.

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Glad

to see Mark was smart enoug to stay in Arlington.
Do you think Teixeira is a HoF caliber player? Today, 600 looks like sure-fire HoF, but will it in 10 years?

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Sep 16, 2005 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

if

If he does not age prematurely, and if he stays healthy, then yes, he could be a hall of fame type guy.

by John Sickels on Sep 16, 2005 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not sure where to find it

but with Teixeira seeming like a very good RBi guy, where would this crystal ball put him on the all-time RBI list?

by So Cal Bob on Sep 16, 2005 2:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Career RBI

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/RBI_career.shtml

Hank Aaron+ 2297 R
Babe Ruth+* 2213 L
Cap Anson+ 2076 R
Lou Gehrig+* 1995 L
Stan Musial+* 1951 L
Ty Cobb+* 1937 L
Jimmie Foxx+ 1922 R
Eddie Murray+# 1917 B
Willie Mays+ 1903 R
Mel Ott+* 1860 L
Carl Yastrzemski+* 1844 L
Barry Bonds* (39) 1843 L
Ted Williams+* 1839 L +

by natsfan2005 on Sep 16, 2005 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks!

The would put him 10th All Time. Pretty impressive.

by So Cal Bob on Sep 16, 2005 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kinda funny

Is it a requirement that all Rangers first basemen have to play at least a few years in Baltimore?

by JM Barten on Sep 16, 2005 3:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah

Yeah, I snuck that in there. wondered if anyone would notice. :)

by John Sickels on Sep 16, 2005 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looks like...

Raffy, minus, or at least we hope minus, the steroid questions.

by CJonNoel on Feb 22, 2006 8:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

MVP in 2013.

52 homers, 152 rbis, 1:1 k:bb ratio, that's a hell of a year even with the lower average.

by duder on Sep 16, 2005 3:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

RBI, HOF, Tex

Interestingly, Texas is one of the teams that consistently uses the 'classic' lineup, which affords players like Tex a ton of RBI opportunities. If that remains the case I see no reason why he won't be an RBI machine for the coming future.

I'd posit MVP worth campaigns in 08,09,13; from what I've seen of him, I could see a ridiculous .350-55-170 year somewhere in there.

by silvysilv on Sep 16, 2005 3:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Seems reasonable....

but, has anyone seen his home road splits? He's killing the ball at home, but on the road, not so much. They look like this:

Home-.325/.405/.682 OPS 1.086
Away-.258/.335/.435 OPS .770

If this trend continues he will need to stay at in Texas. Now, in his defense, his OPS was .893 on the road last year, but his rookie year, again it was .757 on the road. So there is a little bit of a trend. If this continues in the next couple of years, you'll have to wonder how much of his power is comming form Coors east.

Bob Abreu for Kevin Stocker....I'll take it-Chuck Lamar

by Tyler on Sep 16, 2005 3:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Park Effects

Teixeira's top 10 BBRef comparables range from McCovey/McGriff/McGwire/Kiner to Colbert/Sexson/Alvin Davis/Mayberry. When you let the air out of his stats, he fits in with the latter group.

For this scenario to happen, he would have to remain extraordinarily healthy and Texas would have to be monumentally stupid. He's got Boras and there's no way he'll accept anything less than Beltran-like dollars when the time comes. To pay him that would illustrate that Texas management still doesn't understand park effects.

Teixeira in another environment will hit 35 homers a season. A fair projection for him is maybe 420 homers.

by Mike Green on Sep 16, 2005 3:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Inflation

He's got Boras and there's no way he'll accept anything less than Beltran-like dollars when the time comes. To pay him that would illustrate that Texas management still doesn't understand park effects.

Hello, Omar Minaya? This is Steve Boras. How 'ya doin'?

by danielj on Sep 16, 2005 4:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

perhaps

but dont be surprised if minaya then says, "i was thinking of getting someone less talented and paying more money. its the mets way." obviously i'm a frustrated mets fan. is there any other kind?

by DavidWrightismyGod on Sep 16, 2005 4:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

he's gotta be Latin too

by So Cal Bob on Sep 16, 2005 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's Portuguese

Close enough.

603 HR, eh? ~.380 OBP/.523 SLG/~903 OPS? Damn.

I think this is reasonable assuming he does stay in Arlington, but how did he hit 52 in Camden Yards (or is there a new Baltimore Stadium by 2013)?

If you ask me, I think he's going to be converted to pitcher in 2011 and go on to become the third 300 HR, 100 win player of the 21st century (behind Roger Clemens and Dontrelle Willis - and oddly enough for Willis, he hits every single HR as a pitcher)

As a Red Sox fan, that really, really hurts. Hopefully in 5 years you aren't doing a Pedro Alvarez Crystal Ball that projects 600 HR.

by Klostrophobic on Sep 16, 2005 6:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs