Prospect Retro: Brett Tomko

by John Sickels on Sep 14, 2005 12:59 PM EDT in News

Brett Tomko was drafted by the Cincinnnati Reds in the seond round of the 1995 draft, out of Florida Southern College. Assigned to Charleston in the Sally League after signing, he pitched brilliantly in his pro debut, going 4-2, 1.84 in seven starts, with a 46/9 K/BB ratio in 49 innings. At this point, he would have rated as a Grade B+ prospect: an early round draftee with strong full-season league performance in his pro debut.

Moved up to Double-A Chattanooga in 1996, Tomko went 11-7, 3.88 in 27 starts, with a 164/54 K/BB in 158 innings, allowing 131 hits. His K/BB, K/IP, and H/IP were all significantly better than Southern League average, and I rated him as a Grade B+ prospect in the '97 Minor League Scouting Notebook. Some scouts were already expressing concerns that Tomko didn't concentrate well on the mound at times, but it was hard to find anything wrong with his numbers.

He began '97 in Triple-A, going 6-3, 2.95 in 10 starts with a 60/9 K/BB in 61 innings. Promoted to the Majors, he went 11-7, 3.43 in 19 starts for the Reds. I thought he was clearly one of the best young pitchers in the game, and I thought he would become a star.

Alas, it did not happen. Tomko HAS had success. He's been very effective at times, but he's also been erratic, and certainly hasn't developed into a star pitcher. He currently owns a career record of 80-72, 4.54 in 1402 innings, basically being a slightly above-average starting pitcher. That's good, but I thought he was capable of better. His journey through the minors was quick and successful, but he didn't really develop his skills beyond where they were in 1997 when he made his debut for the Reds.

Similar Pitchers to Brett Tomko:

Mark Clark
Joey Hamilton
Len Barker
Aaron Sele
Jim Lonborg
Mike Smithson

Poll Question about Tomko in the comments section

Poll

How Many Games Will Tomko Win In His Career?

131-140

5 votes

more than 140

4 votes

90-100

8 votes

101-110

16 votes

111-120

14 votes

121-130

6 votes

53 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

All the Talent in the World

This is a great lesson in just how tough it is to be a consistent winner in the major leagues. As a Giants fan, I've watched Tomko closely the last two years. Even when he has a bad game the talent is obvious. His fastball goes 93-96 MPH and he can put it on both corners. He has a sharp slider and a decent changeup.

His problems seem to be all mental. He can be sailing along, and if there is an error behind him, or the ump makes a bad call, or any number of other things, he gets this look on his face and you just know the next pitch is going out of the park.

Another thing with him is that he is generally better than his numbers would indicate in that he has more good games than bad. It's just that his bad games are so bad, they inflate his ERA considerably.

Last year he consulted a sports shrink who seemed to work wonders and Tomko was nails down the stretch. Us Giants fans had very high hopes for him this year, but alas, we saw much of the same old "Bombko."

IMO, he's pitched much better this year than his record would indicate. He's had very poor run support, and as in the past, he's had a handful of bad games that have inflated his ERA. If his price isn't too high, I wouldn't be upset if the Giants re-signed him for next year. I certainly wouldn't get into a bidding war with another team though. Anything over $3 M/yr is overpaying.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 14, 2005 1:42 PM EDT reply actions

Career Wins

I forgot to talk about the career wins question.
He's got 80 now and is 32 yo. He averaged 11 wins a season for the last 3 years but only has 7 so far this year. He is very durable and could average 10 wins/yr over the next 4 years. He could have one career year where he wins more than 15. He could accumulate a few more after age 36 although I don't see him as being the type of pitcher who will do well after a dropoff in velocity. I voted 110-120 wins.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 14, 2005 1:45 PM EDT reply actions

More Tomko

Jsut to elaborate on him pitching better than his record would indicate, Tomko has 13 Quality Starts this year and 12 non quality starts. Out of his non-quality starts, 7 have been near-quality with 4 games where he allowed 4 runs in 6 innings and 3 games where he allowed 3 runs or less, but only pitched 5 innings. He's also pitched well in 4 of 5 bullpen assignments.

With a little more run support, he would probably be pretty close to the 10-12 wins he's averaged for the last 3 years.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 14, 2005 2:10 PM EDT reply actions

Cheesecake Alert

You might consider a picture of Tomko's wife Julia for a cheesecake photo, although you might have a hard time finding one with clothes on. She's been a playboy model in the past.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 14, 2005 2:12 PM EDT reply actions

tomko's wife

Brett Tomko's wife, Julia Schultz (edited photo)

by John Sickels on Sep 14, 2005 2:28 PM EDT reply actions

Tomko

I never thought I'd wish I was Brett Tomko before. But after that picture, I do.

by BenB on Sep 14, 2005 5:04 PM EDT reply actions

Watching Tomko

pitch has been one of the more frustrating experiences in my time as a baseball fan. I simply cannot fathom he has such a mediocre k rate and why he is simply not a very good pitcher. The only thing that rivals the quality of his stuff is my exasperation with having him on the Giants' staff.

by kenshin1 @ Minor League Ball on Sep 14, 2005 9:05 PM EDT reply actions

braves

he always seemed like he had more potential than the current level of talent he is showing. but maybe with age will come confidence. seems like the type of pitcher mazzone would love to get ahold of on a cheap deal and pull out a couple all star seasons.

by cookiedabookie82 on Sep 15, 2005 12:08 AM EDT reply actions