Double-A Transition Monitor

by John Sickels on Sep 13, 2005 12:55 PM EDT in News Comment 15 comments

Adam Jones, SS, Seattle Mariners
A supplemental first-round pick in 2003 out of high school in San Diego, Jones was very mediocre in 2004, hitting .267/.314/.404 in the Midwest League, with shaky plate discipline. But he broke out in a big way in '05. He began the year with Inland Empire in the California League, hitting .295/.374/.494 in 68 games, knocking 20 doubles and eight homers. The Mariners promoted him to Double-A at midseason. At the time, I thought this was a big mistake. Given his struggles in '04, I thought it would make more sense for him to stay in the Cal League and build on his success. It looks like I was wrong: Jones didn't miss a beat after moving up, hitting .298/.365/.461 in 63 games for San Antonio in the Texas League. He maintained reasonable strike zone judgment at the higher level, and remained productive across the board. On the season, he combined for 30 doubles, eight triples, 15 homers, and 13 steals. He still has some work to do, polishing up his defense and tightening the strike zone further, but overall this has to be regarded as a very successful season and an easy transition to Double-A. He didn't turn 20 until August 1st. He looks like a premium prospect to me.

Addendum: In the diaries, a reader notes that Jones will likely be converted to center field. This may reduce his value a tad but may help his offensive development.

Adam Bostick, LHP, Florida Marlins
Bostick was a sixth-round pick in 2001, out of high school in Pennsylvania. He hasn't received much notice, but I've been tracking him for a couple of years now due to his high strikeout rates. Last year, he fanned 163 in just 114 innings for Greensboro in the Sally League. He split '05 between Jupiter in the Florida State League, and Carolina in the Double-A Southern League. At Jupiter, he went 4-5, 3.84 in 17 starts, with a 94/36 K/BB in 91 innings. At Carolina, he went 4-3, 4.67 in nine starts, with a 39/25 K/BB in 44 innings. His Double-A transition was adequate. He maintained a good strikeout rate, but his other ratios deteriorated, particularly his command. Bostick works with an 88-92 MPH fastball (occasionally touching 94), a good curveball, and a changeup. His stuff isn't terrific, but it is good overall, and when his command is on he can dominate a game. He still qualifies as a sleeper, but the walks need to come down.

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So is Jones a top 100 guy going into next season?

If you could just venture a guess John, what do you think?

by sfjg85 on Sep 13, 2005 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

top 100

Perhaps. It will be close.

by John Sickels on Sep 13, 2005 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So...

I don't know if you release grades before the prospect book comes out, but if you're willing, I'd be interested to see how you grade him. My guess would be somewhere in the solid B+ range, though as a 19-year-old succeeding in AA, he semes to have a lot of projectable upside, especially if he turns out to be as good defensively in CF as scouts say he can be.

by jhelfgott on Sep 13, 2005 2:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

him

Him = Jones

by jhelfgott on Sep 13, 2005 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you have

already moved him off of SS?

by So Cal Bob on Sep 13, 2005 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

Jones already started playing games in CF towards the end of the year w/San Antonio, and he's going to be playing CF full-time in the AFL. He's pretty clearly not one of the better defensive SS's in the Ms' system (with Betancourt and Cabrera, how could he be?), and he's got the tools (especially the arm) to be a fantastic defensive CF.

by jhelfgott on Sep 13, 2005 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks

that was news to me. I appreciate it!

by So Cal Bob on Sep 13, 2005 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No Problem

The Peoria Javelinas roster can be found here:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/2005afl/roster_pj.html

I couldn't find it, but there was, I believe, a daily dish piece about AFL rosters that made reference to Jones "moving to CF for JJ Hardy in the AFL and for Yuniesky Betancourt in the future plans of the Mariners." I think the move makes a lot of sense. Jones has a cannon. Coming out of high school he had a fastball that touched 95mph, but he hasn't been too accurate w/it at short so far.

by jhelfgott on Sep 13, 2005 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

B+

B+ at a minimum.

by John Sickels on Sep 13, 2005 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another comment on Jones

San Antonio's Wolff Stadium ranks in the 890s in Baseball Prospectus's park factors data (1000 = neutral). Park factors are calculated relative to the league, which probably drives that number down a bit given the number of hitters' parks in Texas, but Jones has definitely been playing in a park that depresses offensive numbers. As a comparison, Safeco Field's PF was 949 relative to the majors last year, if memory serves correctly. That should be a point in Jones' favor when prospect evaluations come out.

Cheney stadium also depresses offense, though not as much. It will be interesting to see what Jones can do next year in AAA.

by jhelfgott on Sep 13, 2005 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Off Topic

In light of the recent non-promotion of Delmon Young, John's Crystal Ball non-prediction prediction of TB trading him in '11 looks more and more realistic.

by lenred on Sep 13, 2005 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jones...

IMO has the potential to be BJ Upton lite. He isn't QUITE as talented as Upton, but his tools are barely a notch below and the skills are there.

Nice young talent.

One thing I noticed, I haven't gotten to say this about a Cubs prospect in a while....sucks. Alot.

by SenorGato88 on Sep 13, 2005 6:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

OT for John

Love the Double-A Transition Monitor, just never seems to be enough of them, particularly since you never get to the players I would like to see you evaluate (although I have gotten a ton of good info about players I otherwise might not have noticed). With the minor's seasons pretty much complete, how about rolling up all of the transitions for this year for each franchise into a single report. Double-A is supposed to be the make-or-break level, so it would almost be a mini-team analysis with some possible foreshadowing of each team's top prospect list. Maybe not as much background/history - just enough to get a flavor - and more of a focus on looking forward based on each player's transition? It would give us all a sense of the overall landscape for each team - breakouts and fall-by-the waysides. Just a thought. Love your work!

by JimBeau on Sep 13, 2005 6:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ceiling

Another question for John: What's the ceiling like for a guy like Jones? As a 6'3, toolsy player who's already succeeding at such a high level at the age of 19, I want to say there's major star potential there, especially given the hitting environment at Wolff, but is it more reasonable to expect him to peak at major-league numbers comparable to his 2005 season totals?

by jhelfgott on Sep 13, 2005 7:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ceiling

That's a good question. He could develop in any number of ways. ANYONE who does well in Double-A at age 19 is a potential star, but there are many varieties of "potential stars" if you know what I mean. He could develop a lot of power. Or he could develop a high batting average. Or both.

by John Sickels on Sep 13, 2005 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs