2014 looks like a Cy Young season to me.  Im guessing that this career had some injury issues due to the inconsistency and depressed K rate.

Looks like the first two seasons are hampered by minor injuries, short trips to the DL, but they prove affect his development - his walk rate isn't ideal those two seasons, and they're never as good as I think they could be after that.

A major injury sidelines him before the beginning of the season in 2011.  He tries to come back too early, struggles, and they shut him down.

Out for the majority of 2012, but comes back in late August as the Twins are rolling towards the playoffs.  He pitches very well in the postseason as the Twins make it all the way to the World Series, only to lose to the Washington Nationals.

His postseason performance gets him a 5 year, 45 million dollar contract with the Dodgers (factoring inflation).  Gets traded to the A's before 2016, on the cheap due to continued injury issues.

2014 looks like a Cy Young season to me.

The 2018 season in Oakland could be Cy material too.  

His K rates seem fine to me, when he's healthy - in his five good seasons as as starter, his stats are (K/IP):
178/211, 186/208, 205/198, 135/199, 155/231.

What I'd like to discuss is what makes those last two seasons (2013 and 2014) good.

Even though his K rate (which isn't that bad before when he's healthy) falls dramatically, he pitches much better.  

Is it Dodger stadium?  

Also, what happens in 2017?  Why only 9 saves, 2 games started and 102 IP?  Are the Athletics just really bad after he converts to closer?

Along those lines, what would you think of a move to closer mid-career for a pitcher like Liriano?  Is his stuff too good for that?

And last, why is this too pessimistic?  He's a great prospect, yes, but I see some very good seasons in here, possibly 2-3 Cy Youngs.  Career line isn't that great, but he has a few decent seasons.  I'm sure Twins fans don't want this happening to Liriano, but it could happen.

Fransisco Liriano pitched four very average season for Minnesota from 2006 through 2009.  In 2010 he puts up a career year, winning the AL Cy Young award finishing second in wins (19), second in strikeouts (205), first in complete games (5), andfirst in shutouts (3).  He posts a 1.10 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, and a 3.0 K/BB ratio .

Liriano helps lead Minnesota to the AL Central crown in 2010, and a berth in the ALCS.  The Twins lose to the eventual World Series champs, the Oakland A's, but not because of Liriano.  Liriano goes 4-0 in the playoffs, pitching 31 innings with a 2.32 ERA and 36K's.

In July of 2011, Fransisco injures his pitching arm, requiring Tommy John surgery.  He misses the rest of 2011, and most of 2012, returning in mid-August.  With the TJ surgery, Minnesota is wary of signing Liriano to a big contract in the offseason.  Enter the Dodgers and GM Orel Hershiser.  

The Dodgers sign Liriano to a 4 year, $48 million deal.  Fransisco pitches at a league average rate his first season with LA, but he breaks out in 2014, winning his second Cy Young award overall.  While his K-rate dropped off, working on the side with Hershiser helped him become more of a finesse pitcher.  The last two years of Liriano's contract with LA are marred by more arm trouble.

LA declines to pick up the option on his contract, and the A's swoop in and sign him to a 1 year $6 million deal.  The A's offer is the only major league contract Liriano is offered.  Liriano fails to win a starting spot, but pitches well out of the 'pen.  When closer Jimmy Schull goes down with a groin injury in September, Liriano gets his shot.  He is lights out, going 3-0 with 9 saves, and pitches brilliantly in the A's ALDS loss.  

Thankful for Oakland's offer the previous year, Liriano gives them a "home town discount".  A three year $24 million deal is agreed upon, and Liriano goes into the season as the closer.  Fransisco pitches brilliantly, winning his 2nd AL Cy Young award, and his third overall.  The following year in 2019, with the A's in a down year, Liriano is dealt to Baltimore at the deadline for two B+ prospects.  Liriano helps Baltimore make the playoffs, but they lose in the ALDS.

The following year, with Baltimore's closer healthy, Liriano is relegated to a setup role.  He signs a minor league deal with Washington in 2021, but retires after two ineffective months.  He ends an up and down career, with a career comparable to Tom Gordon stat wise.  Maybe a mix of David Cone or Bret Saberhagen as a starter and Gordon as a reliever.

The A's had Mulder and Zito for awhile but they don't have the potential for K's like the Twins 2 would have.

I was trying to remember another team wiht a dominat lefty to go with Carlton, Koufax and the Unit but couldn't think of any.

The only injury I know about when he was with the Giants was a strained lat muscle that cost him most of the 2003 season.  A strained lat muscle?  Some of us questioned his dedication after missing that much time with a muscle strain, but as far as I know his shoulder and elbow are fine.

It will be most interesting to see if the Twins start him out in the bullpen or rotation next year.  I assume he'll be with the big club as he really doesn't have anything left to prove in AAA.  Although, I would be cautious about this year as it is by far the best he's ever had. He's always been a high ceiling prospect, but this was definitely a breakout year. Time will tell if he can sustain it.

he's pitched 2 innings so far, 5 k's....that you can base much off that...but he can make hitters look silly.

97mph heat, with a solid change up and slider.

He's not a small guy either..he's a few inches taller than santana, he's 6"2 190 or so..he could use a few pounds on his frame. He's still young though.  

I think sky is the limit for this kid.  He's ahead of Johan at the same age forsure.

He and matt cain are a year apart, to the month.

6"2 about 190 is not small for a pitcher lol..especially for a guy who will fill out.

He looks great out there, if you guys have any other  studs you wanna throw our way, feel free.  Although your GM probably threw away Terry Ryans number after that rape, I wouldn't blame him.

I see 1, maybe 2 Cy Youngs in there - 2010 (maybe) and 2014. 2014 looks like a fluke, though - 231 IP and only 155 K, yet he manages a 2.69 ERA?

3.85 ERA, 7.4 K/9, and 2000 IP is nothing to sneeze at.

As far as those saying he is injury prone.  What pitcher in the major leagues isnt?  That is like predicting Barry Bonds will get a walk or the sun will come up tomorrow.  

I watched Liriano in Ft Myers last year.  I had a poll on a website asking who would be promoted first between him and Baker.  Not to the majors but just AA ball.  It is amazing how these guys have taken off along with Travis Bowyer, all of which may be on the major league roster next year.  But just as fast as some rise, JD Durbin's name will come up on how fast a guy can fall.  In spring training he was supposedly battling for the 5th spot in 2005's rotation.  Now his name is rarely mentioned unless it is in the whatever happened to category.

If the Twins get 5 good years from Liriano they should feel lucky.  He was the throw in in the AJ trade and look what they have already received from Nathan in that trade.

Foppert
Ainsworth
Liriano
Boof
Jerome
Aardsma

Which 3?

If he's thrown into the rotation nearly full-time next year and not properly handled, then yes, he could end up with these Kevin Millwood-like numbers.  I also don't think he'll end up as a closer in his twilight days.  He simply has too many pitches for a team to ponder that option.  If he does get injured too much or fails to live up to his potential I think the more likely senario is that he becomes the next Mike Morgan-like journeyman.

As far as this projection goes; I don't see any Cy's in this projection and his only All-Star game in '14.  I say his 2011-12 injury is a rotator cuff instead of TJ.  TJ surgery late in the '11 season would effectively knock him out for all of '12 whereas a bum rotator cuff would give him a chance at 7 starts in '12.  He leaves the Twins because he feels mis-managed and that he's better than Santana. He cashes in with the Dodgers who vastly overpay him with a 5 year/$120M deal.  2014 is his best season and the Dodgers think they actually signed a good contract for once.  But in 2015 he falls victim to dead-arm syndrome as a residual effect from the overwork of previous campaign, despression from coming in 3rd for the Cy Young, and an Oliver Perez-like spaz attack in the clubhouse.  2016 marks the end of his starting days as he pisses off the coaching staff and forces a trade to Oakland (who force the Dodgers to eat most of the remaining contract).  The A's resign him in 2018 at a discounted rate and reap instant benefits.  Alas, in 2019 the end times creep in when a fan-altered picture of Jose Mesa's head on Liriano's body circulates the A's clubhouse.  The A's panic and ship him off to Baltimore.  Baltimore gives him a shot, but the following year realize that the fan pic was prophetic and send him to Washington for some Twizzlers and Player To Be Named Later who is never named.  No one wants is left who will put with the attitude of Liriano and he retires to install granite countertops.

Liriano will be starting from here on out.

Lohse looks to be on the outs in minnesota and mays certainly is.

Won't shock me if mr. liriano is starting next yr.