Prospect Retro: Carlos Pena

by John Sickels on Aug 26, 2005 6:04 PM EDT in News Comment 6 comments

Prospect Retro for Carlos Pena

Carlos Pena was drafted by the Texas Rangers in the first round of the 1998 draft, from Northeastern University, 10th overall. Assigned to Class A Savannah, he hit .325/.370/.598 in 30 games, although his BB/K/AB ratio was not impressive at 8/26/117. Still, his overall production was excellent, and scouts were also happy with his defense at first base. I didn't give letter grades to first-round picks in the 1999 Minor League Scouting Notebook, but he would probably get a B+ nowadays.

Pena spent all of 1999 with Charlotte in the Florida State League, hitting just .255. But he did knock 18 homers, drive in 103 runs, and draw 74 walks. He also struck out 135 times in 136 games. I gave him a Grade B in the '00 book, commenting that "Pena will develop into a solid regular but I don't know if he'll become a star."

Promoted to Double-A Tulsa in 2000, he broke out with an excellent .299/.414/.533 season, 28 homers, 101 walks, 108 strikeouts in 529 at-bats. He improved his walk rate, cut his strikeouts, and was an all-around devastating hitter. I gave him the rare and coveted pure Grade A rating, and rated him as the Number Seven prospect in baseball.

Up to Triple-A in '01, he hit .288/.408/.550 in 119 games, then .258/.361/.500 in 22 games with the Rangers. He had some nagging injuries that hurt his production in the first half, but he went on a huge tear in July and August, boosting his end-of-season numbers. I kept him at Grade A entering 2002.

'02 was a chaotic year for Pena. He got traded to Oakland, hit just .218 in 40 games, then was shipped to Detroit. He's now had three seasons in a Tigers uniform, showing very good power, but hitting less than .250. In 1539 career at-bats through August 25th, Pena is hitting .242/.331/.454. He has enough power to be dangerous, but he strikes out a lot, and hasn't shown the same sort of balanced hitting skills he did in the minors. Even his defense has been less effective than it was in the minors. At age 27, he should be entering his peak seasons. Can he improve from where he is today? Or is this another example of an old-player-skill prospect aging poorly?

Comparable Players to Carlos Pena

Bob Hamelin
Sam Horn
Mike Epstein
Kevin Maas
Greg Brock

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Baffling

Pena's failure to build on the promise he showed in the high minors is one of the more baffling prospect developments of the last decade, for me.

I've always been really curious to see the A's internal reports on him -- what exactly did they see in him that prompted the quick turnaround?

Go ahead and shoot your mouth off, like it might kill the silence.

by ESiegrist on Aug 26, 2005 6:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maas

Kevin Maas...a blast from the past.

A man cannot be comfortable without his own approval.

by Goodfella on Aug 26, 2005 8:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's quite simple, really.

The Tigers traded for him.

by Vaux on Aug 26, 2005 11:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hamelin, Horn and Maas?

Maybe the three most notorious late-season callup whiz kids who proceeded to flop since Hurricane Hazle??

Strange. Pena doesn't seem too comparable to those guys to me, IMO. They had more power, more walks, were more "all-or-nothing" types. Brock seems a lot closer. 331 OBP/454 SLG lifetime is really nothing to be terribly ashamed of, but it is disappointing given Pena's minor league pedigree.

and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Aug 27, 2005 2:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Billy Beane Clone?

as a detroiter who's seen him a lot, i'd have to say his problems aren't related to over-achieving early like maas. it's all in his head...he has a couple bad at-bats, then changes his swing to protect himself and makes it worse.

in a way, he reminds of what i've read about billy beane...he's so afraid of failing that he can't succeed. who knows though, maybe bull durham will save his career the way he saved inge's.

as an aside, why is durham still at AAA? if he can reclaim two projects like inge and pena, and make marcus thames look like albert pujols, he must be a witch doctor of some sort.

by djshelto on Aug 27, 2005 6:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The frustrating thing about Carlos

is that he'll mess up his swing and start whiffing on every pitch imaginable. He has good strike zone judgment and can take a walk. He has good power. But his swing will get out of place and every pitch over the plate he'll swing right through.

Hopefully his mechanics and confidence right now stay where they are and he can continue to be a contributor.

by ian on Aug 28, 2005 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs