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Minnesota Twins Pre-Season Top 20 in Review


Scott Baker (AP)

Minnesota Twins Pre-Season Top 20 Prospects in Review

1) Jesse Crain, RHP
   The good news: 2.49 ERA, 9-1 record. The bad news: 17/16 K/BB ratio in 47 innings. What happened to the strikeouts? Does it matter? In my opinion, it probably does. I'd be wary of holding Crain long-term and would consider trading him while his value is high.
2) Jason Kubel, OF
   Rehabbing from horrible knee injury. At this point his status is unclear for obvious reasons.
3) J.D. Durbin, RHP
   3-4, 4.43 with 69/43 K/BB in 81 innings for Triple-A Rochester. Control problems and a sore shoulder are hampering his performance. Status slipping in a prospect-rich system.
4) Scott Baker, RHP
   3-6, 3.01 with 81/23 K/BB ratio in 96 innings at Rochester, and has pitched well in 2 Major League starts. He's good and he's ready.
5) Glen Perkins, LHP
   2.13 ERA with 66/13 K/BB in 9 starts for Class A Fort Myers. Promoted to Double-A New Britain, has been less effective with 3.96 ERA, 31/23 K/BB in 39 innings. Still a solid prospect.
6) Jason Bartlett, SS
   Hit .242/.310/.374 in 26 games for the Twins. I think they should have been more patient with him. Now hitting .330/.399/.467 at Rochester and deserves another chance.
7) Adam Harben, RHP
   Underrated power pitching prospect, 2.57 ERA in 18 starts at Fort Myers, 86/41 K/BB in 95 innings. Command still an issue, but has excellent stuff.
8) Francisco Liriano, LHP
   3.64 ERA with 92 strikeouts in 77 innings at New Britain, 2.15 ERA with 50/14 K/BB in 46 innings for Rochester, only 26 hits allowed. Pitching great, moving rapidly up prospect lists.
9) Alex Romero, OF
    Hitting .297/.346/.470 with 12 homers for New Britain. Power seems to be developing nicely.
10) Trevor Plouffe, SS
    Hitting .229/.311/.339 for Class A Beloit. He's played better lately and is making contact, but in general has been overmatched by full-season pitching.
11) Kyle Waldrop, RHP
    4.97 ERA, 84/17 K/BB in 112 innings for Beloit, 132 hits allowed. I love the low walk rate, and he is impressive to see in person. But he gives up too many hits right now.
12) Matt Moses, 3B
    Hit .306/.376/.453 for Fort Myers, showing that he is fully recovered from '04 back problems. Recently promoted to New Britain, has struggled in 13 games (.200/.273/.300).
13) Jay Rainville, RHP
    3.77 ERA with 77/27 K/BB in 88 innings at Beloit. Promoted aggressively to Fort Myers, he has pitched well in his first 2 starts. Excellent stuff and improving command make him a premium guy.
14) Matt Fox, RHP
    Hasn't pitched this year, health status is in doubt.
15) Anthony Swarzak, RHP
    101/32 K/BB but 4.04 ERA in 18 starts for Beloit. Moved up to Fort Myers with Rainville and has a 13/0 K/BB in his first 12 innings. Another premium arm.
16) Boof Bonser, RHP
    9-6, 4.08 ERA with 118/40 K/BB in 121 innings for Rochester. Showing better command this year, strong K/IP ratio. Worthy of a September promotion, would be one of the best prospects in many systems.
17) Travis Bowyer, RHP
    1.98 ERA and 19 saves for Rochester, 72/29 K/BB in 55 innings. Another excellent arm, should get a shot in relief next year.
18) Scott Tyler, RHP
    4.00 ERA, 85/35 K/BB in 88 innings for Fort Myers. Another live arm, still working on his command. Conversion to relief may come eventually.
19) Terry Tiffee, 3B
    .266/.313/.454 for Rochester, .191/.233/.294 for the Twins. Possible Quadruple-A player.
20) Ryan Rowland-Smith, LHP
    Rule 5 guy, returned to Seattle system. 4.62 ERA, 71/39 K/BB in 99 innings for Double-A San Antonio. Doing OK, not a spectacular guy.

The Twins system remains loaded, with particular depth in power pitching. This helps cover for the inevitable injury attrition. If Durbin is hurt, they still have guys like Baker and Liriano and Bowyer ready for shots. The hitting is less impressive, and adding more offense to the system should be a priority.

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some hitting prospects not on these lists...

Like doug deeds, deacon burns, danny matienzo and david winfree might pan out.

I also didn't see Denard span...he's hitting .311 in AA and On base percentage is real good.

Surprised Ryan rowland smith was rated over a guy like Errol Simonitsch who has been real good since being drafted.  He may not be a top of the rotation guy but I'll bet he's in a rotation someday and is quite effective...mark redman tye potentially.

by hotshotschamp on Jul 27, 2005 6:13 PM EDT   0 recs

presesaon
Remember, this was a pre-season list. I put Rowland-Smith on because he was a Rule 5 guy and people wanted to know about him.

I like Deacon Burns a lot. He and Span would be on a revised list.

by John Sickels on Jul 27, 2005 6:27 PM EDT   0 recs

Swarzak
What do you see as his ceiling at the ML level?

by cincyinco on Jul 27, 2005 6:36 PM EDT   0 recs

swarz
Hm. Radke with a better fastball? Who would that be? Kevin Tapani in one of his good years?

by John Sickels on Jul 27, 2005 6:38 PM EDT   0 recs

Justin Jones
Crossing my fingers on the health of Justin Jones..be nice to see him stay healthy to makeup for the arm troubles of Matt Fox.

It seems the Twins have concentrated on lefties lately drafting guys like Simmonitsch, Perkins, trading for Jones and the now recently drafted Ryan Mulling and Brian Duensing.

by murraygd13 on Jul 27, 2005 11:16 PM EDT   0 recs

pitching
The pitching depth is nice but I sure hope Portes, Plouffe or someone like Tolleson, Kelly, Thompson can develop and be able to play 2B in the next 3-4 years.  I'm tired of seeing terrible offensive players at 2B.  Or how about giving Luis Rodriguez a shot, Boone is horrible.

by murraygd13 on Jul 27, 2005 11:19 PM EDT   0 recs

Baker
Clearly he is ready, but the knock on him (including yours) has been that he has a low ceiling.  Do you still buy that or has his fine performance in AAA this year got you thinking that he is capable of more than being a middle of the rotation innings eater?

by BERSMR on Jul 28, 2005 12:42 AM EDT   0 recs

prospects
I think Baker can be a #2 starter on a playoff-caliber team, though #3 might be a safer prediction. Liriano is an ace in the making. I like Swarzak a lot... this is a guy drafted out of HS last year, and he's dealing at Fort Myers. It's impossible to impose a ceiling on him but I think he'll be a #2 if healthy.

I think the 2005 draft added some good position players to the system, and actually some nice prospects came out of the 2004 draft as well... Robinson, Burns, even Plouffe who has played pretty decently after a horrific start. Portes has been a surprise but he looks like a serious offensive prospect at 2nd. Pickrel has done OK for Beloit.

For guys drafted this year, Tolleson has gotten off to a nice start, as has Thompson (albeit in the GCL).

Our best chance at an offensive 2nd baseman might be Moses, whose defense at 3rd is not exactly Gold Glove-caliber. He probably needs another full season in the minors though... in the meantime Luis Rodriguez should be starting.

by drivelikejehu on Jul 28, 2005 11:34 AM EDT   0 recs

2nd versus 3rd
3rd is easier to play on the defensive spectrum why would he succeed at 2B and not at 3B?

by murraygd13 on Jul 28, 2005 11:33 PM EDT   0 recs

Liriano
Where is the ceiling for this kid?

by drprestwood on Aug 4, 2005 8:24 AM EDT   0 recs

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