Ryan Howard = Cecil Fielder?

by phatj on Jul 25, 2005 7:54 PM EDT

Blogger "Shore" at thegoodphight posted the notion that Ryan Howard might be a left-handed Cecil Fielder. I took a look at their minor-league numbers:

Minor league numbers (from thebaseballcube):
Fielder: 624 G, 2301 AB, 138 HR, 289 BB, 525 K, .296/.378/.541/.919
Howard: 444 G, 1637 AB, 94 HR, 206 BB, 517 K, .290/.373/.528/.901

Howard's strikeout rate is a bit higher, but otherwise their numbers are virtually identical (except for the number of games).

Apparently, Baseball Prospectus' comparables list for Howard doesn't include Fielder, but I'm not a subscriber.

What does everyone think?

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Another important factor

Something else to look at is the age each were at during every level in the minors.

Cecil:
19 - Low A
20 - High A/AA
21 - AA
22 - AAA

Howard:
22 - Low A
23 - High A
24 - AA/AAA

IMO, that clearly gives the edge to Cecil.

by hybrid on Jul 25, 2005 10:45 PM EDT reply actions

Good point

On the other hand, Cecil's breakout year in the majors was his age-26 season. Howard is holding his own at 25, and is improving rapidly as he plays every day.

by phatj on Jul 25, 2005 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually....

Cecil's breakout year was his age-25 season with the Hanshin Tigers (38 HRs, roughly a 1040 OPS).

So Cecil had about 150 OPS points on Howard in what is effectively AAAA with what I assume was a lower run context (though, IMO, the difference in game strategy--bunt! bunt! bunt!---makes any run context differential between NPB and MLB less meaningful).

In the end, the edge still goes to Cecil, particularly given that had the Jays not also been playing McGriff and Upshaw, he'd probably have had his breakout around age 23.

-tmt

by Tom Talavage on Jul 26, 2005 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions