Prospect Retro: Rafael Palmeiro

by John Sickels on Jul 18, 2005 2:46 PM EDT in News Comment 22 comments

Prospect Retrospective: Rafael Palmeiro

Rafael Palmeiro was drafted in the first round by the Chicago Cubs in the 1985 June draft, 22nd overall, out of Mississippi State University. Assigned to Peoria in the Midwest League after signing, he hit .297/.374/.459 in 73 games, excellent performance for a player skipping short-season ball, even an advanced college guy. He drew 31 walks with only 34 strikeouts in 279 at-bats, and would clearly be a Grade B+ prospect at a minimum, possibly an A-. He would certainly have rated among the Top 50 hitting prospects in the game, and perhaps top 20.

Assigned to Double-A Pittsfield to begin '86, he hit .306/.378/.442 in 140 games. His strike zone judgment was outstanding: 54 walks with only 32 strikeouts in 509 at-bats. He hit .247/.295/.425 in 22 games for the Cubs at the end of the year. Again, he would rate as a B+ or A- prospect, depending on how much power projection you would see in his bat. There was mixed opinion about that.

Palmeiro split '87 between Triple-A Iowa and Chicago, hitting .299/.369/.547 in 57 games at Des Moines, and .276/.336/.543 in 85 games for the Cubs. Although he hit .307 for the Cubs in '88, he knocked only 8 homers, leading to further questions about his power. The fact that he rapped 41 doubles, a sign of more homers to come, was ignored. He was traded to the Texas Rangers for '89.

After a mediocre '89 season, Palmeiro hit .319 for the Rangers in '90, then began increasing his power output. Although not as spectacular as guys like Sosa or McGwire during the 90s, Palmeiro has been consistently productive for a long period of time. His minor league career was marked by spectacular plate discipline.

Comparable Players to Rafael Palmeiro, Not Including Active Players

Carl Yastremzki
Mel Ott
Frank Robinson
Eddie Murray
Al Kaline
Harold Baines
Billy Williams

It is true that Palmeiro benefited from hitting during the 1990s, but c'mon guys, 3,000 hits, 500+ homers, superb durability. Palmeiro is a Hall of Famer. A pitching parallel would be someone like Early Wynn or Fergie Jenkins or Don Sutton, guys who were consistently strong pitchers for a long time. They deserve to be in the Hall, just as Sandy Koufax-like "spectacular peak performers in shorter careers" do.

Palmeiro is a Hall of Famer and it is not a borderline case.

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It Is Not a Borderline Case

Those first five comps speak for themselves.

Go ahead and shoot your mouth off, like it might kill the silence.

by ESiegrist on Jul 18, 2005 3:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

That's quite a list. I'm sold.

President, Gookie Dawkins Fan Club (2001); Jose Ortiz Fan Club (2002); Corwin Malone Fan Club (2003); Dustin McGowan Fan Club (2004) ...

by jayg on Jul 18, 2005 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I compare him to Eddie Murrey (Orioles) - Over shawdowed by several spectacular players and time and circumstances but a hall of fame player all the way.

by kmcsql on Jul 18, 2005 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Always agreed

I'll never understand people that think he's not a first-ballot HOF'er.
Power, Average, Consistency, Durability, Drive-in and Score Runs, he does it all.

by lenred on Jul 18, 2005 4:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

horrible ESPN.com article

Has anyone read the article on ESPN claiming he's not a HOF because he doesn't "feel" like one? Is this the current state of sports writing?
Keep up the good work John.

by Sospiro0 on Jul 18, 2005 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Weird article

I think Bayless went pretty overboard on what he was thinking, but I don't totally disagree with his thoughts. I think a player does need to have some sort of stature or memorable characterstics to be HoF caliber.

The biggest issue I have with Raffy is that the case for his inclusion is almost solely dependent on CAREER statistics. He might make a top 10 batters list at the very peak of his career, but further than that I kinda doubt it.
Should he be penalized for the fact that even when he at his best, he was perhaps the 4th or 5th best first baseman in the game? No, but then again, I wouldn't call "not getting into the Hall of Fame" a penalty.

Given the magnitude of his career statistics, Raffy certainly isn't an insult to the Hall in any way, and I wouldn't have a problem at all with him in there. The debate over his inclusion, I think, is a spillover from the "stats vs. scouting" debate.

by mrkupe on Jul 18, 2005 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

espn

I don't visit ESPN.com anymore, for obvious reasons.

by John Sickels on Jul 18, 2005 4:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Obvious reasons

John, there are so MANY obvious reasons not to read ESPN.com, maybe you should be more specific. ;)

(Just joking, I know which reason you mean, but their site sucks so bad now, I just wanted to add a little sarcasm to point that out.)

by sabernar on Jul 18, 2005 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

they even turned Gammons

into an "Insider" only. I loved reading Peter's work because it was like a "baseball gossip column." Good read, but little substantive work--and always a Red Sox/Yankee bias. First Neyer, now the loss of John's Down on the Farm, and now Gammons. There really isn't a reason to visit ESPN any longer.

by So Cal Bob on Jul 18, 2005 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ESPN Insider

I've had it since 2001... it's alright, but I could live without probably. My subscription runs out in December - I might cancel it and use the money on Sickels' newsletter or Baseball America.

by rdf8585 on Jul 18, 2005 7:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sickels/ESPN

I was out of the loop when all this went down. What exactly happened? I know John won't comment, but will one of y'all explain it to me?

I thought DOTF was wonderful. I was pissed when it disappeared.

President, Gookie Dawkins Fan Club (2001); Jose Ortiz Fan Club (2002); Corwin Malone Fan Club (2003); Dustin McGowan Fan Club (2004) ...

by jayg on Jul 18, 2005 7:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

from John Sickels.com

In John's own words, "I want people to understand that I was happy at ESPN and that the decision to drop Down on the Farm was not mine. I want to continue doing it, but if nine years in this business has taught me anything, it is that you can't trust anyone but yourself."

I think we can all read between the lines. How could anyone over there actually know good content unless it bit them in the a$$?

by So Cal Bob on Jul 18, 2005 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ESPN

As far as I know, they decided to turn their minor league coverage over to Baseball America and left Sickels out to dry. That was a real crappy decision. Sickels was great for them for several years.

by rdf8585 on Jul 18, 2005 7:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ESPN

The only real decent stuff there you have to pay for. I do it for the football draft coverage and some of Neyer. Other than that, I get most of my baseball info here. This site is second to none. I visit it far more than anything else. This whole family of blogs is high quality.

John, your work is great, I really appreciate everything you do. I've learned more here is eight months about baseball than I knew my entire life(I'm only 21). While I've always known baseball, this has enhanced everything I've ever learned. Thanks again.

Bob Abreu for Kevin Stocker....I'll take it-Chuck Lamar

by Tyler on Jul 18, 2005 8:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

my $.02 on 2 items.

First, I think the insider is a decent value. The Blogs in addition to Gammons Stark and Neyer are pretty good. I do try and catch the chat wraps once a day - sommetimes there is something that does not relate to the Yankees or Red Sox there.

Palmiero - Not a HOFer. When held up to his contemporaries, Thomas, McGwire, Bagwell, Thome, McGriff, Gallarraga, Fielder, Giambi, Pujols, Clark, Murray. He was never the best first baseman in the league - His lack of All Star appearances bear that out. No MVP awards, no Pennants, No WS rings. Do I think he used Steroids or HGH or some other performance enhancers? Yes I do - and not just because Jose Canseco told me he did. Once this crazy offensive cycle runs it's course he will not be remembered as the best of his era.

by rutkap on Jul 18, 2005 8:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You're nuts

3000. 500.

How many on that list of yours has that? I believe just Murray, and I don't remember him as THE premier 1b of the 80's. I think the number of guys that have done this in the history of baseball is at 19. I admit, 500 HR's isn't what it used to be, but 3000 hits is 3000 hits, the 500 just adds to that. I think you're smokin' the rope man. Just because a guy didn't have "star power" is ridiculous. You belong at the bottom of sea with bankers, lawyers and 99% of these hacks that call themselves sports writers like Bayless. I think he's the CNN of sports writers. He'll skip (no pun intended) a meaningful story to write about some crap that will cause controversy so he can garner attention. I think these guys get paid by the amount of web-hits and complaint phone calls they receive. Sports journalism is too market driven and really sucks overall these days.

Raffy won't get in 1st ballot because guys like Joe Morgan and Skip Bayless. There is no way he doesn't get in eventually. The hall w/o one of the few members of one of the most exclusive clubs in all of sports would only diminish the halls credibility.

by slurve on Jul 18, 2005 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Raffy is Definitely an HOFer

My subject line says it all. I do, however, want to make one point regarding the applicability of All-Star selections and MVP voting to one's HOF resume. Frankly, I don't think they are all that relevant. Essentially, these indicia are just measures of people's opinions - that doesn't tell us whether those opinions are correct or supported by good, objective evidence.

I already think Joe Morgan is a moron - why should I rely on a vote that he may have influenced?

Nolan

by Nolan on Jul 18, 2005 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually

the 3000/500 club is VERY exclusive:

aaron
mays
murray
palmeiro

that's it. babe, ted, bonds--none of these guys have 3000. it's amazing what palmeiro has been able to do just by never having a bad year and never going on the DL. i say "just" but obviously that's incredibly rare.

not only will palmeiro not be out of place in the hall of fame, but he will be noticeably better than the average guy already there.

by jpahk on Jul 19, 2005 7:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

contemporaries?

Your list is actually a good argument FOR Palmeiro. You wouldn't really say Cecil Fielder was better, would you? Galarraga? Sure, guys had better individual seasons -- Tino did, Mo Vaughn did -- but if you were starting a team, would you want a guy who would have a couple good seasons and flame out, or a guy you could count on for 35-40 homers every year?

As for the MVP argument, if you start holding it against guys that they never won one, you start arguing against guys like Paul Molitor.

by whichthat on Jul 18, 2005 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs