MOD: Mets II
First Round
1. Diamondbacks: Justin Upton
2. Royals: Alex Gordon
3. Mariners: Cameron Maybin
4. Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman
5. Brewers: Mike Pelfrey
6. Blue Jays: Ryan Braun
7. Rockies: Luke Hochevar
8. Devil Rays: Jeff Clement
9. Mets
What I'd like to do now is to concentrate on the 121st and 151st pick. A few people posted their thoughts, but we got no discussion.
Do we draft for position here?
I'd like to get a college closer, but I have absolutely no idea about any of them outside of Hansen.
I'd like to get a starter if we don't take Romero.
If we do get Romero, I'd like to get a leadoff type hitter regardless of position.
Poll is done. Thanks for voting, but it looks like Pelfrey won't be available.
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by JJ1986 on May 30, 2005 2:54 PM EDT reply actions
Poll suggestion
Gold glove voting should work like that but doesn't.
by nygiants5811 on May 30, 2005 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Board
by JJ1986 on May 30, 2005 2:59 PM EDT reply actions
re: Board
- Romero
- Bruce
- McCutheon
- Zimmerman
- Braun
- Lowrie
by JJ1986 on May 30, 2005 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
changed my mind a bit
- Bruce
- Romero
- Braun
- Hansen
- Ellsbury
- Zimmerman
board
- Pelfrey
- Hansen
- Zimmerman
- Bruce
- Hochevar
- Romero
by kid dynamite @ Minor League Ball on May 30, 2005 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
6 deep
- Pelfrey
- Hochevar
- Zimmerman
- Tulowitzski
- Bruce
- Hansen
121 or 151
Board
- Zimmerman
- Maybin
- Bruce
- Braun
- Hansen
- Pelfrey/Romero
by Mr Met @ Minor League Ball on May 30, 2005 4:26 PM EDT reply actions
Clement?
If he's a catcher, which we need... AND a power hitter, which we need (#1 on BA's college ranking in that category)... AND a college kid coming from a great program... why SHOULDN'T we take him?
by dcarrano on May 30, 2005 6:11 PM EDT reply actions
121 and 151... sigh
121 and 151
What I would like to know is if people think we should draft for position or take the best available player at these spots.
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 1:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Notes
About Clement, he was the third player overall on my origianl board, but no one else seemed to want him. He's someone I'll consder depedning on who's left. If anyone else feels like we should draft him post here.
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 12:23 AM EDT reply actions
Re:
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions
The poll
Consensus Draft Board
- Upton
- Gordon
- Maybin
- Bruce
- Romero
- Braun
- Zimmerman
- Pelfrey
- ???
So, I'm going to post 3 candidates. Jeff Clement, Jacoby Ellsbury and Andrew McCutcheon. I'd like people to post their favorite among those three here.
I may bump one of them to eight if there is enough support behind a candidate. I don't trust the results of the poll for Pelfrey.
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 1:38 AM EDT reply actions
McCutchen
I don't think the other two ever make the majors.
Tulo
I think he'll be gone early anyway and allow us to get one of our first eight choices.
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Tulowitzki then
I think the other teams here may be under rating him a bit too - probably because they're all naturally judging more on stats than scouting. But, Tulowitzski does have some pretty good offensive projection left, and he should stick at SS without any problem.
I'd really put him only a bit ahead of McCutchen.
Projected Mock Draft
- AZ - Upton
- KC - Gordon
- SEA - Maybin
- WA - Zimmerman
- MIL - ??
- TOR - Braun
- COL - Hochevar
- TB - Pelfrey/Tulowitzki
I think theres a chance one of Pelfrey or Tulowitzki falls, but the top 4 seem pretty set, and TOR & COL are leaning pretty heavily.
pretty much agree
- Upton
- Gordon
- Maybin
- Zimmerman
- who knows, they don't even have a thread
- Braun/Romero
- Clement/Hansen/Hochevar
- Pelfrey
Milwaukee
Assuming that Hochevar is #1 on Colrado's board and Tampa is drafting a picther probably means that we get one of our three guys whatever happens.
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Draft
I found some stats but I don't know which players are considering going pro.
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 2:36 AM EDT reply actions
No stats
here at Brewerfan.net.
That & BA are the best sources I know.
Projection
Right
I think there's a chance Tulowitzki falls - especially if MIL grabs Pelfrey (and I think they should!), TB could possibly go for Hansen.
Bruce vs. Tulowitzki might be an interesting debate. Maybe include Clement (who has support on a few of the other boards as well).
Okay
Tulo's fall is the most interesting thing we've got to talk about right now. If Milwaukee takes him, We should get Bruce. If Milwaukee gets Bruce, then Tulo could fall to us. It would be him v. Romero v. McCutcheon in my mind.
Like you said, if Milwaukee gets Pelfrey and TB gets Clement or Hansen, Bruce and Tulo will probably both be there. I don't see much support for Tulo, but I'd consider him.
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 3:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Tulo
Tulo would be good, I would prob have to alter my board.
- Romero
- Tulo
- Hansen
- Braun
- Clement
- Pelfrey
Also
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Agree
In the real draft, I think the Mets may land Pelfrey.
by acerimusdux on May 31, 2005 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Boras
Boras would probably begin negotiations with the Mets for Pelfrey right at what Niemann got (5 year, $5.2m), but might settle for a bit more than Humber got (5 year, $4.2m guaranteed). Both were major-league deals.
by Mr Met @ Minor League Ball on May 31, 2005 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
119 and 149
I picked most of these players off of either BA's list or the Brewerfan list. Does anyone have any thoughts on any of them
119
2B Cameron Blair
2B Jemile Weeks
2B Chris Getz
SS Reese Havens
C Nick Hundley
RHP Chris Nicoll
RHP Kevin Slowey
149 (All closers or will be in the majors)
Zach Ward
Brent J. Cox
Joey Devine
Neil Jamison
Mitch Boggs
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 3:21 AM EDT reply actions
Tulowitzki
Omar went to scout Pelfrey this weekend and he dominated. Hot rumor is the Mets are now looking hard at Pelfrey at No. 9.
Great pitcher's build. Very good stuff. Rick Peterson. Could be a coup. I've been shot down on Pelfrey before, but I think we have to look at him.
by Mr Met @ Minor League Ball on May 31, 2005 10:36 AM EDT reply actions
New Board
- Upton
- Gordon
- Maybin
- Bruce
- Tulowitzki
- Romero
- Pelfrey
- Braun
- Zimmerman
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 11:44 AM EDT reply actions
Re: New Board
And Bruce No. 4?
by Mr Met @ Minor League Ball on May 31, 2005 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Zim
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Tulowitzki
I feel at the very least Romero has to go ahead of him. Do we really think Tulowitzki makes sense for us or are we only putting him that high because other sources say he'd be a bargain at #9? If the answer is not the former, we shouldn't even be considering him.
re:
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Not just because he's a SS
If you want an absolutely minimal risk of bust, than maybe he's your guy. But I don't agree with taking a low risk/low reward approach. Bruce has good plate discipline, makes contact, uses the whole field... as toolsy high school outfielders go, he's about as low risk as they come. Braun has had a lot of success hitting at the college level. Why is he so much riskier than Tulowitzki? He certainly has a much higher ceiling.
Re:
Bruce apparently has a good eye and a good bat, but so did Kazuo. I think that it's very hard to judge a player when he's playing against inferior competition.
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I still really dislike Tulowitzki
Being a high school player shouldn't be a negative in and of itself. David Wright was a high school hitter. Bruce isn't a raw, undisciplined hitter. He's quite the opposite.
Defense of Tulowitzki
If he were a marginal shortstop prospect I'd agree on passing, but getting a player projected to be better than Bobby Crosby--no matter which middle infield spot he occupies--would be fair value at No. 9. Terrific defense, arm strength and athleticism.
That would go for much higher than a few million on the market. Orland Cabrera got $8 million, for crying out loud!
by Mr Met @ Minor League Ball on May 31, 2005 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Jose Reyes
Jose
But how about this ... Reyes will have four to six years' service time by time Tulowitzki's ready for the bigs. If Reyes hasn't improved the weaker areas of his game by then, then--boom!--the Mets will have some serious leverage.
(For the record, I think Reyes will be very good. It's just an example--because he does have significant room for improvement.)
And if Tulowitzki's a second baseman? Who cares? He's one of the top hitters available. A true five-tooler. And you'd be hard-pressed to find a scout who thinks Lowrie is a superior talent to Tulowitzki.
by Mr Met @ Minor League Ball on May 31, 2005 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I just don't buy it
Re: McCutchen vs Bruce
by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on May 31, 2005 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe I shouldn't have specified McCutchen
Possibly there
I think McCutchen and Bruce should probably be pretty close. BA had McCutchen one spot ahead of Bruce on its top 200, and now on the tracker they have Bruce one spot ahead of McCutchen. Very different players; Bruce is the higher ceiling, McCutchen is more polished, will move quicker, and is the safer pick.
I'm also not sure if there's more support for Clement or Braun amongst the college bats.
I've been waffling back and forth on some of these, especially Bruce vs. McCutchen. John Manuel was pretty negative on Bruce in the first BA chat, and I usually trust Manuel.
Braun looks like the best bat of the college guys there, but he apparently has a hitch in his swing, and thus will require some adjustment to wood bats. Clement has great plate discipline and power potential, but I'm not quite sold on his ability to hit for average in pro ball. I do think he could stay behind the plate, but I think he still won't be much of a defender if he does. I think I like Tulowtiski's bat about as much, and I like his tools better - I'm more confident that he'll stay at SS.
And Romero, I'm not as high on as some here. I don't see him having the same ceiling as Hochevar or Pelfrey. I think he's more of a mid to back end starter. But, as a lefty, I think he would still be usefull. I think I'd actually like him as a guy who could help fairly soon as a set up man.
My list for now:
- Tulowitzki
- MCCutchen
- Braun
- Bruce
- Romero
- Clement
No. 9
Then we can decide who we should actually pick.
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Guesses
That leaves us with Bruce, Romero and Tulowitzki. So, of those 3, who's the pick? I'd think that it would have to be the shortstop if he's still there.
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Board
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 2:05 PM EDT reply actions
9
by JJ1986 on May 31, 2005 2:31 PM EDT reply actions
if it goes like that...
- Tulowitzki
- McCutchen
- Bruce
Clement would be my 1.5 on this list.
by dcarrano on May 31, 2005 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Rank at No. 9
- Tulowitzki
- Bruce
- Hansen/Romero
by Mr Met @ Minor League Ball on May 31, 2005 2:53 PM EDT reply actions
same for me
- Tulowitzki
- Bruce
- Hansen/Romero
by DavidWrightismyGod on May 31, 2005 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Can David Wright be my God, too?
Know where I can find a #5 royal blue jersey tee?
by Mr Met @ Minor League Ball on May 31, 2005 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
hit up an met's clubhouse store
by DavidWrightismyGod on May 31, 2005 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
One last post about 9
How about Trevor Crowe? We haven't discussed him at all, but this is a guy who was the second best hitter in college ball last year. (After Gordon)
Is the only reason we're ignoring him because no one else has him this high?
by JJ1986 on Jun 1, 2005 1:15 AM EDT reply actions
Crowe
About Pick #9
Re: About Pick #9
Romero's pretty good, but I'm concerned he profiles too much like a No. 3, which is fine for the smaller-revenue clubs. But the Mets can sign as many No. 3s on the market as they want. They've got a rotation full of 'em now.
It would be much harder to find a No. 1 or 2 reliever on the market, in my opinion. I still like Tulowitzki first (Blair Field is brutal on hitters), then Bruce, then Hansen, who got a ton of support in the poll.
Volstad is definitely somebody to look at, though. If we're convinced his ceiling's higher than Romero, it might be worth discussing.
by Mr Met @ Minor League Ball on Jun 1, 2005 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Profile?
Re: Profile?
It is quite rare, yes, to have an amateur profile as a true No. 1 major league starter. There aren't many true Ones right now in the bigs. Niemann last year might be one. Pelfrey could be one.
Heilman absolutely was not drafted as a No. 1. Even when he was the Mets' top prospect he was considered a potential "solid No. 2 or 3."
by Mr Met @ Minor League Ball on Jun 1, 2005 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Volstad+
The number of them who flame out is ridiculous. In the five year period I looked at, out of x pithcers drafted in the first round:
1, Roy Halladay, is a Cy Young Award Winner
1, Billy Wagner, is an Ace Closer
1, Adam Eaton, is a future Ace
1, Kerry Wood, is an All Star
4, Morris, Benson, Redman and Carpenter, are #3's
2, Garland and Patterson, are having decent years finally
2, Hermanson and Looper, are decent relievers
10, Wright, Wright, Wilson, Milton, Westbrook, Elarton, Meche, Brian Anderson and Alan Benes, have made a decent number of starts.
2, D'Amico and Dreifort, lost their careers to injury in the majors
1, Doug Million, died
22 pitched in the Majors at one time, but not for long.
23 never reached the majors
Succes rate: 5.7% Great, 17.1% Good, 34.3% Have a Career.
Failures include Kirk Presley and Geoff Getz.
The success rate for positiong players is much higher, especially in the first 15 picks.
by JJ1986 on Jun 1, 2005 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Eaton
To me a 'Future Ace' isn't still giving up that many extra base hits and posting a ~1.3 WHIP 120 starts into his career. He's another #3 starter who is in a pitchers park and has a good bullpen stranding inherited runners.
by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on Jun 1, 2005 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Hitters
1, A-Rod, may end up as one of the 5 greatest players ever.
1 more, Todd Helton, is a future Hall of Famer.
4, Berkman, Nomar, E-Chavez, and Glaus, are possible future Hall of Famers.
8, Varitek (x2), Konerko, Derek Lee, Torii Hunter, JD Drew, Troy Glaus, Vernon Wells are All Star Caliber Players.
6, Trot Nixon, Mark Kotsay, Geoff Jenkins, Michael Barrett, Jos Cruz Jr. and Todd Walker are above average players.
4, Erstad, Kennedy, Cuddyer and Grieve, have been or are average players.
1, Travis Lee, is a huge bust, but still in the majors.
2, Terrence Long and Ben Davis, have careers.
16 played some in the majors.
21 didn't.
Failures include Rob Stratton and Ryan Jaroncyek.
Success rate: 9.4% Great, 31.2% Good, 42.2% Decent
by JJ1986 on Jun 1, 2005 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Note
by JJ1986 on Jun 1, 2005 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
A quibble
I looked at this too, but arrived at something different. If we're going to take a hitter, it should probably be a collegian. If we're going to take a pitcher, the choice is less clear. First rounders from 1997-2002:
A. College Hitter Pool: Glaus, Berkman, Kennedy; Burrell, J.D. Drew, C. Pena, A. Everett; Munson, Bigbie; Borchard, Utley; Teixeira, Crosby; Greene, Adams, Swisher.
B. High School Hitter Pool: V. Wells, Cuddyer, Werth; C. Patterson, Kearns, F. Lopez, Burroughs; Rios; Baldelli; Mauer, Kotchman; Upton.
Pool A is clearly superior to B at this time. But three years from now things might look different. Remove Teixeira from B and it's a lot closer.
C. College Pitcher Pool:M. Anderson; Mulder, Weaver, K. Wells, Lidge; Zito, Sheets, Jennings, M. Ginter, MacDougal; Prior, Brazelton, VanBentchoten, Heilman, Lowry; Francis, Blanton.
D. High School Pitcher Pool: Garland; Sabathia; Beckett, Myers; S. Burnett; G. Floyd, Bonderman; Greinke, Kazmir.
Here, I'd almost take Pool D over C. I like the upsides of Sabathia, Beckett, Myers, Bonderman, Greinke and Kazmir more than anyone save Prior from the college crowd.
by Mr Met @ Minor League Ball on Jun 1, 2005 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Helton
Thome's probably a borderline case. He doesn't have the the peak value or the defense that Helton does. U don't think that his being left out would mean that Helton doesn't deserve to get in.
by JJ1986 on Jun 1, 2005 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Pitchers
On the other hand, in addition to your list, Eaton and Halladay were High School picks recently and I think this is clearly the better pool. So, maybe we should give Volstead a closer look.
The hitters would be more balanced if you went back a few years. C. Jones, Rodriguez and Chavez were all high school hitters.
by JJ1986 on Jun 1, 2005 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Logistical Notes
I'm working on a board that goes 149 picks deep. I should be done with this tonight and I'll post it for comments.
The Brewers and Mariners have lost their Directors. We have more activity than any other thread, so maybe one or two of you want to take one of those jobs now that we're pretty much done with the first round pick.
Our Board right now is:
- Upton
- Gordon
- Maybin
- Tulowitzki
- Bruce
- Braun
- Zimmerman
- Pelfrey
- Romero
by JJ1986 on Jun 1, 2005 1:40 PM EDT reply actions
JJ
re:
It looks like we're going to get Tulowitzki and if not him, Bruce.
by JJ1986 on Jun 1, 2005 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Accuracy?
Accuracy
by JJ1986 on Jun 2, 2005 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions
If we get a bat in Round 1
http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewAmateurPlayerProfile.do?playerId=423&draftId=3
MLB Radio Mock Draft
Az-Upton
KC-Gordon
SEA-Tuto
WASH-Zimmerman
MIL-Maybin
TOR-Ricky Romero
COL-Hochevar
TB-Townsend
They also have the Mets taking Hansen. But it seems as if TB is taking Townsend. But I guess there's a good chance that Pelfrey is on the board for the Mets at 9.
by Dotelesco on Jun 2, 2005 12:44 PM EDT reply actions
Townsend
We should not consider Townsend
Townsend
Re: Townsend
The two ex-teammates are not friends. Is this a reason to completely rule him out if the talent is there? Absolutely not. But as noted, one of Pelfrey or Hochevar or Romero will almost certainly be available.
by Mr Met @ Minor League Ball on Jun 3, 2005 2:22 PM EDT reply actions

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