I love Braun, if you've been reading my stuff, I've been on him since before he was considered a 1st round selection. But he won't be available at 18.

Look for Bogusevic, Crowe, Ellsbury...

I wouldn't mind Drennon either, but I think Padres would only take him if he fell to 35 (same w/ Sanchez & both are unlikely).

You indicated that the Padres should target corner IF/OF types, and I've said the same thing, the main thing they need to do, is upgrade the talent level in the farm. The Padres lack impact arms and impact bats.

Your main contention is a great one, this draft is a big one for the Padres. We have pick #'s 18, 35, 68, 78, & 100.

Last year, when we had #1, we didn't pick again until 60ish... And the way this draft shapes up, the guy we get at 35 could be as good as the guy we get at 18. I've heard that from 10-40 there is very little difference in talent.

And, as you implied, with Fuson and Alderson on board, it will be an exciting draft.

Your webpage is a great read.  I hadn't checked it out until today and I saw that you had been on the Braun bandwagon long before Opening Day.  I will continue to visit your site on a daily basis.    

By the way, do you think the Padres rushed Travis Chick by assigning him to Mobile?  The Ks are still strong and the Southern League has always been the ultimate litmus test for a prospect but I think his single A experience as a starter was rather limited coming into 05.      

He still might have benefited from a half-dozen to 10 Hi-A starts before going to Mobile. Pitching is such a psychological thing. You wouldn't want to see his ego crushed...

Noting that Chick's K-rates are strong speaks well of you, a player's ERA can be crushed by lack of defense behind him... Chick has still taken at least a little step back, but he's still one our top pitching prospects.

22 2/3 IP  21 K  22 H  10 BB  7 ER    2.78 ERA

Looks like he has been somewhat lucky with the BB totals in recent outings.  Those recent stats are on line with his season line with the exception of the ER allowed.  So you maybe you're right, his poor defense could very well be a part of his ERA. (Did you see Corey Smith currently has 13 errors?)

I think Chick lacks a big league quality third pitch at the moment (changeup).  The Southern League is not the best place for a youngster to work on a third pitch.  Despite all that, his K/IP and K/BB are still positive signs and we are probably getting a little worked up about nothing.  

Sean Thompson is going to be another 04 Fort Wayne K pitcher to keep a close eye on in Mobile.

Do you think Justin Germano's velocity will handicap his long-term outlook in the majors?  Have you seen his improved K/IP and K/BB numbers in Portland?  He does remind a little bit of Stan Spencer which is far from the best compliment in the world even though Spencer was a personal favorite of mine.  I wonder if the Padres are going to blackball Clay Hensley for his flunked steroid test?

At the moment, who do you think are the Padres best pitching prospects?  I agree with you that they lack impact arms.  I think Chick has the ceiling of an impact arm, but he's not quite there.  There might be a chance they draft Bogusevic and make him a full-time starter.  

Other possibilities include Cesar Carillo, Matt Torra, Ricky Romero and Cesar Ramos.  

You know all the good relievers like Brad Baker, Willmer Villatoro, Natanael Mateo, Rusty Tucker and Dale Thayer but none of them are "knock your socks" off types.  

Jared Wells is off to an adequate start in Lake Elsinore.  I would like to see Michael Eckstrom make it to San Diego because he's a local boy from Point Loma Nazarene.  Do you know anything about his repertoire?  Another 2004 college draft pick Clayton Hamilton (Penn State) is also pitching well at Fort Wayne.  Do you know much about him either?

Luke Steidlmayer has comeback from a torn labrum and been lights out so far at Fort Wayne (35 K in 35 IP).  

Who's your favorite out of the Wells, Hamilton, Eckstrom, Steidlmayer, Sterry, Javier Martinez group?

Ryan Braun 3B U. Miami
Chris Volstad RHP Palm Beach Gardens H.S.
Mark Pawelek LHP Springville, Utah
Brian Bugosevic LHP/OF Tulane
Jeff Clement C USC
Wade Townsend, RHP Rice
Matt Torra, RHP U. of Mass.
Cesar Carillio, RHP U. Miami
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF Oregon St.
Colby Rasmus, OF Russel County HS, AL
John Mayberry, OF, Stanford
Trevor Crowe, OF, U. Arizona

It will surprise some of you more familiar with my writing to see two HS pitchers so highly rated by me. But everything I've read says those two guys will be special and the Padres do lack impact arms (velocity & pitchability). I'm also getting more and more enamored with Bogusevic, Torra, and Rasmus...

The jury is still out on Josh Fields and Bradley Snyder but both are having dispointing 2005 campaigns.  Fields is overmatched in Double A and Synder is having a so-so season in high class A.  I guess you would have to classify Etherton, Dickey and Heilman as the recent success stories of this pick and that's exaggerating as it is.  You San Diegoans probably remember Ryan Jaroncyk from Orange Glen and Phil Clark.

Willie Wilson is hands down the greatest player drafted at #18.    

Dan Ford, Carlos May and Glenn Wilson are far behind Wilson but they would probably battle it out for #2 greatest.  Joe Magrane was on the right path before arm trouble derailed his career.  You guys remember Jack Armstrong being a flash in the pan All-Star Game starter in 90.  

2004 Chicago (AL):  Josh Fields 3B, Oklahoma St.
2003 Cleveland:     Bradley Snyder OF, Ball State
2002 Chicago (AL):  Royce Ring P, San Diego St.
2001 New York (N):  Aaron Heilman P, Notre Dame
2000: Toronto:      Miguel Negron OF, Puerto Rico
1999: Baltimore:    Richard Stahl P, HS
1998: Anaheim:      Seth Etherton P, USC
1997: Colorado:     Mark Magnum P, HS
1996: Texas:        R.A. Dickey P, Tennessee
1995: New York(N):  Ryan Jaroncyk SS, HS
1994: Detroit:      Cade Caspar P, Pepperdine
1993: Montreal:     Chris Schwab OF, HS
1992: New York(N):  Chris Roberts P/OF, FSU
1991: New York(N):  Al Shirley OF, HS
1990: St. Louis:    Aaron Holbert SS, HS
1989: Pittsburgh:   Willie Greene SS, HS
1988: Kansas City:  Hugh Walker OF, HS
1987: Cincinnati:   Jack Armstrong P, Oklahoma
1986: Detroit:      Phil Clark C, HS
1985: St. Louis:    Joe Magrane P, Arizona
1984: Milwaukee:    Isiah Clark SS, HS
1983: Los Angeles:  Erik Sanberg P, Wichita State
1982: Boston:       Rob Parkins P, HS
1981: Milwaukee:    Darren Dilks P, Oklahoma St.
1980: Detroit:      Glenn Wilson 3B, Sam Houston
1979: S.Francisco:  Rick Luecken P, HS
1978: New York(A):  Rex Hudler SS, HS
1977: Pittsburgh:   Anthony Nicley OF, HS
1976: Kansas City:  Ben Grzybek P, HS
1975: Atlanta:      Donald Young C, HS
1974: Kansas City:  Willie Wilson OF, HS
1973: Los Angeles:  Ted Garr C, HS
1972: Kansas City:  Jamie Quirk SS, HS
1971: S.Francisco:  Frank Riccelli P, HS
1970: Oakland:      Dan Ford OF, HS
1969: S.Francisco:  Mike Phillips SS, HS
1968: Detroit:      Robert Robertson OF, HS
1967: S.Francisco:  Dave Rader C, HS
1966: Chicago(A):   Carlos May OF, HS
1965: Philadelphia: Mike Adamson P, HS

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/history/draft/index.jsp

I agree with you about this pick being "due".  

His stuff is average... high 80's FB may top out at 90, I'm not sure what his "off" stuff is, but his numbers have always exceeded what the "experts" said he should be able to produce...

He will turn 22 this August, so he's not young for Low-A. But neither is he exceedingly old... He needs to continue to have success or he'll be passed over for higher profile pitchers.

I didn't intend to look for pitchers, but I wanted to find some players that jumped out at me and write blurbs about them... I ended up profiling 8 pitchers and 1 hitter...

Without further ado:

Jacob Marceaux (#49) - McNeese St. (LA) - RHP - Back on May 21st I wrote:

This is a guy whose stats really make me think he could be hidden gem who is taken in the third to fifth round... His numbers are quite good, but not the kind that REALLY jump out at you...

Now BA has Marceaux ranked as a Sup. 1st or early 2nd round pick. He throws 93-95 sinking fastballs and has some reportedly good breaking pitches as well...  

Jeremy Hellickson (#69) - Hoover HS, Des Moines, IA - RHP - Bill James once argued that Northern (and Mid-Western) states are under-scouted. Not only is that the case in Iowa, but thanks to frequently cold and long winters, their high school baseball programs don't begin practices until early May and games until mid-late May. Hellickson is a risky pick, but with multiple top-100 picks, not necessarily a foolish risk. That he's from Iowa adds to the intrigue, if he were from warmer climates, he could have risen drastically from #69 - on the other hand, like local RHP/OF product Sean Sullivan, he could drop in his senior season as well...

Nick Webber (#92) - Central Missouri St. - RHP - Webber has what one scout calls, "Wiffle ball movement" and his FB sits at 91-94 and touches 96 according to his profile on Baseball America. He may profile better as a reliever, but that type of velocity (with movement) is rare and valuable. He's an intriguing pitcher.

Micah Owings (#142) - Tulane - 1B/RHP - "He doesn't have a dominant out pitch and projects more as a set-up man with a bulldog attitude." That's an interesting summary quote for a guy who led one of the top teams in the country in strikeouts (as a pitcher) getting 117 in 107 innings.

Mike Broadway (#163) - Pope County HS, IL - RHP - A project, but one with OUTSTANDING upside. Already throwing 92-94 with a few 95s, his body lets scouts dream of future 97s... Needs refinement, but worth a fourth round pick...

Jared Koon - Itawamba CC, MS - RHP - "He was previously known as a pitcher who threw consistent strikes with an 84-85 mph fastball and a solid curveball. Now he has velocity to go with his approach and breaking ball, (from BA)." Pitchers who have a late-developing velocity spike intrigue me. I wonder if they have the advantage of having had to learn how to pitch first, the get an added bonus of velocity that gives their pitching-intelligence an extra tool to use to confound hitters.

Mike Phelps - Central Missouri St. - RHP - Phelps dealt with a fractured skull at the beginning of the season and thus pitched very little this season. He could be someone to pop as potential DFE. He's unlikely to sign because he reportedly has early-round potential for next year. However if a team could determine his signability, or simply maintain his rights and attempt to sign him before next year's draft, they could have a nice high-upside pitcher on their hands.

Nick Stavinoha LSU - RF - Stavinoha has an athletic background; he was a long-snapper for the University of Houston Cougars. He then was a catcher and later moved to (and found a home in) right field. He has nearly as many home runs (19) and strikeouts (20). That level of power and bat control could portend good things. Also keep in mind this happened in the SEC, not exactly the worst level of colliegate baseball...

*

And one guy the Padres already hold the rights to...

"The top prospect at Garden City Community College[, OK] is Padres draft-and-follow RHP Aaron Breit (9). A 46th-round pick out of Thomas More Prep in Hays, Kan., a year ago, Breit already dials his fastball up to 90-94 mph with more room for projection in his 6-foot-3, 180-pound frame. His splitter also can give batters fits."

The other side of it, is that guys that can throw 93-7 w/ command are premium 1st round guys.

1. Justin Upton OF
   
2. Alex Gordon 3B
   
3. Cameron Maybin OF
   
4. Troy Tulowitzki SS
   
5. Mike Pelfrey RHP
   
6. Luke Hochevar RHP

1. Mike Pelfrey
   
2. Justin Upton
   
3. Craig Hansen RHP
   
4. Ryan Braun 3B
   
5. Luke Hochevar

"Braun has the highest upside of among the top third basemen in this draft. He is an outstanding athlete who has plenty of experience playing for a college powerhouse. Vinny isn't going to be around forever, and Braun should be ready soon. He has power, speed, and patience at the plate, and he also can play shortstop."

Again, I LOVE Braun, I hope he somehow falls to us at 18 (not going to happen). However (where do I start):

1. Braun isn't the top 3B in the draft, Gordon is
   
2. Braun is barely even though of as a 3B, he's looked at as a future OF
   
3. He can't handle 3B and moved there because he was unreliable as a SS so he can't "play shortstop"

Wheeler is not the "expert" TSN pays him to be. What a joke!

Is out w/ TJ sugury...

Take a late flyer on him?

"Varvaro had moved himself into the first three rounds of the draft with a dominant spring, going 9-3, 2.32 with 115 strikeouts and just 54 hits allowed in 85 innings."

With the success-rate of TJ surgury, I would spend a 5-7 rounder on him and offer 2-4 round money...

Nate from San Diego asks:
With Sandy Alderson joining the Padres staff who do you think the Padres will go after with their early picks? Thanks for your time.

Allan Simpson: I'd be surprised if Sandy exerts his own influence already, though Grady Fuson, his former scouting director in Oakland, has been seeing a lot of players for the Padres since coming on board early in the year. Not surprisingly, it's almost all college players we're hearing for them at No. 18--chiefly, Oregon State's Jacoby Ellsbury, Tulane's Brian Bogusevic and Long Beach State's Cesar Ramos.

* Cesar Ramos is back in the picture - I still just don't see us taking him at 18 - may 35...*

Bryan from Eugene, Oregon asks:
Do you see the Padres taking a college player at #18 and if so, is there a chance it could be Jacoby Ellsbury from OSU?

Allan Simpson: This is becoming a strong likelihood.

* Yeah, we essentially already knew that. *

"I definitely prefer college players over high school players -- always have," said Bill "Chief" Gayton, the Padres' scouting director. "The book you're writing on a player is longer; you have more chapters."

I like a drafting philosophy based upon reason and not just chasing the latest shiny object.  (I do wonder if last years pick of Bush was not a case of chasing the shiny object.)

He's a 3B out of U. Tenn.

.379/.527/.664 with 20 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 59/21 BB/SO

That's quite an offensive profile.

BA has Headley ranked #128 nationally...

From BA: "His sophomore year was dogged by a hamstring injury, but he returned healthy as a junior and confident after a solid showing in the Cape Cod League." - "...a solid showing..." Folks, he's done it with a wood bat!

Also:

"Headley's advanced plate approach is his best asset; his discipline led to 59 walks, second in the nation, and helped him rank in the top 10 in home runs (12) as well. He's solid from both sides of the plate, with more power from the right side and greater consistency as a lefthanded hitter."

We actually pick around #128, but I bet a stat-oriented team takes him before that selection...

Rnd. 1 #18 - Brian Bogusevic, LHP, (19) - Tulane - I keep liking him more and more, advanced lefty w/ good velocity & refinement - Jacoby Ellsbury, OF (25) - C.J. Henry, SS (20)

Rnd. 1S #35 - Jacob Marceaux, RHP, (49) - McNeese St. - I get the feeling he hasn't finished getting better, looks like a Oswalt clone - Lance Broadway, RHP (48) - Clay Buchholz, RHP (51)

Rnd. 2 #65 - Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, (69) - Hoover HS, IA - A projection pick, may come back to bite us, but with extra picks, a worthwhile gamble, no one else that jumps out in the 60's - David Adams SS/3B (67)

Rnd. 2 #76 - Jordan Danks, OF, (37) - Round Rock HS, TX - Reportedly won't sign, but arguably worth 7 digits. If Moores will drop the cash, he's worth the selection - Matt Green, RHP (81)

Rnd. 3 #98 - Chase Headley, 3B, (128) - Tennesee - Good power and great plate discipline, I'd like to take him @ 131, but he won't be there, might not be here... - Justin Smoak, 1B (95)

Rnd. 4 #131 - Mike Costanzo    1B, (123) - Coastal Carolina - Quoting BA, "Legit two-way talent showed premium power in Cape Cod League" - remember that's w/ a wood bat - Jonathon Egdan, C (143)

Rnd. 5 #161 - Jonathon Egdan, C, (143) - Cross Creek HS - Plus bat (power) may have to move off C, bat is supposedly worth it - Anthony Varvaro, RHP (62)

Rnd. 6 #191 - Anthony Varvaro, RHP, (62) - St. Johns - Out with TJ, but "more complete pitcher than his teammate Craig Hansen" (a projected top-10 pick)  - Lance Lynn, RHP (199)