MOD: Mets

Not a Hansen fan either

I'm not a believer in this year's pitching class. At least not the Boras clients, I do like Romero. So my vote goes to the best available hitter. Perhaps Bruce or Braun.

by jeck on May 27, 2005 7:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hansen or Drew

Hansen is a top ten talent guy that maight me able to help this season. I think everyone is over reacting about drafting Hansen in the top 10.

by riktermiller on May 27, 2005 8:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

"might be able to help this season"

I really doubt it. First, Boras is his advisor. Who knows how quickly he's willing to sign. But the main reason I doubt he can help any team in 2005 is the level of competition jump. He's not exactly facing top hitters at St. John's. It's one thing to dominate weak college competition, but it's quite another to dominate professionals, let alone major leaguers. With his stuff, I'm sure he'll be able to succeed, but right away? I don't think so.

by jeck on May 27, 2005 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not my opinion..

but the opinion of scouts for teams other than the Mets according to BA. The Mets are not the only team that believes that Hansen can pitch in the big leagues this season.

by riktermiller on May 28, 2005 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some Choices

I'm just going to post my top 10 board here. People can reply with their own. We'll know more about the actual pick as time passes and the Drew situation resolves.

Upton
Drew
Clement
Gordon
Zimmerman
Romero
Ramos
Lowrie
Braun
Maybin
Bruce

Upton, Gordon and Romero will probably be gone.
Clement and Zimmerman might and no one knows what will happen with Drew.

I'd rather draft a college hitter, Braun or Zimmerman Clement, than a high school, toolsy outfielder, Maybin or Bruce.

I'm probably way higher on Jed Lowrie than anyone else is, but he could be up in two years and he plays a position (2B) and fills a role (leadoff) that the team desperately needs and will need then.

by JJ1986 on May 27, 2005 11:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

top 9

Upton
Gordon
Maybin
Braun
Romero
Bruce
Hansen
Zimmerman
Ellsbury

I'm just going to leave Drew off for now since that situation is unresolved. Like you with Lowrie, I suppose I'm much higher on Ellsbury than anyone else. It's worth noting that while Bruce is a toolsy, high school outfielder, Baseball America also ranked him #2 in strike zone judgement for prep hitters.

by jeck on May 28, 2005 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

I think that the organization is sorely lacking in "productive" bats. Most of the hitters in the organization are very toolsy. There are quite a few good pitching prospects (Hernandez, Humber, Petit, Bannister are all pretty solid), so I don't think that a starting pitcher is the way to go.

If Hansen's not on the board, select a hitter, preferably a polished college hitter (Ryan Braun?).
If Hansen is on the board, it's a whole other debate. I wouldn't mind a Hansen selection, but I wouldn't want it to be a "default" pick. I'd want it if he's considered a legitimate big league caliber player / top 10 at his position, not just because there's a perceived need for a proven closer candidate.

by nygiants5811 on May 28, 2005 1:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

agree on braun

totally agree with you nygiants. the mets don't have any impact bats in the minors. we have toolsy guys who don't show much shot of capitalizing on them. i would love for us to take braun, as his numbers are great, plays on a strong college team and according to the reports i have read is quite a good athlete to boot. also, i'm not as against hansen as some people, but honestly i feel that a bat is way more important at this point than a closer, just going from the way closers pop up in the majors. converted starters who become closers, happens all the time.

by DavidWrightismyGod on May 29, 2005 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Board

I'm going to update the board at the top as the other teams picks come into focus so we know what pool we're working from.

by JJ1986 on May 28, 2005 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Draft Board

My board now would be:

Gordon
Upton
Maybin
Drew
Zimmerman
Hansen
Bruce
Volstad
Weaver
Hochevar
Tulowitski

Need to go to 11 for now because 2 might not be in the draft. I think if one of the top 3 falls, that should be a no-brainer.

After that, it's debateable. But, I like Hansen out of the college arms, and I don't think too many people have the other HS guys quite as high as I do, so I probably would at least get one of Bruce or Volstad.

At 121, if he falls, I really like Reese Havens. I'd also keep an eye out for Justin Smoak, and for Cuban Defector Yuniel Escobar. I also like pitchers Jensen Lewis, Zach Ward, Kevin Wheelan, Ryan Mullins, or Jeremey Bleich. Or, take a flier on one of Jason Neighborgall or Micah Owings if still there in round 4 or 5.

In 5, if the above are all gone (or I've got enough pitching) I also might like good defensive catcher Drew Butera there, or Ivan Dejesus, a polished HS SS who could fall mainly because he's only 5' 11". Deunte Heath, who the Mets drafted in the 27th round in 2003 and didn't sign, is also a potential 5th round pick, but probably won't be the best there.

My board for 4th & 5th would look something like:

Havens
Smoak
Neighborgall
Lewis
Mullins
Escobar
Bleich
Owings
DeJesus

by acerimusdux on May 28, 2005 6:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Other names

I like Havens and Smoak as well. Some other names to watch, in no particular order:
Donald Veal (CC, lhp, 86)
Kenny Maiques (JC, rhp, 90)
Chris Nicoll (College, rhp, 121)
Tyson Ross (HS, rhp, 130)
Diallo Fon (HS, OF, 112)
Paul Kelly (HS, SS, 68)
Nick Weglarz (HS, 1B, 136)
Brett Hayes (College, C, 53)
Craig Italiano (HS, rhp, 52)

The number is what BA ranked them in their Top 200. As you can see, many will be off the board at 121, but hopefully some guys will drop.

by jeck on May 29, 2005 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Owings

You want owings as a pitcher or as a 1B? Being from Tulane, I know he can hit, but he has a real hit or miss swing and has very limited defensive capabilities. As a pitcher, he throws low 90s and has an above average breaking pitch. He's future should be on the mound.

by thudean on May 29, 2005 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitcher

Owings is one of those high ceiling toolsy guys whose performance has yet to match his promise. He needs to focus on one of hitting or pitching, and I agree it should be probably be pitching.

I think by round 4-5 I'd rather take a gamble on a raw high ceiling guy, than take the kind of polished guys available there who tend to put up good numbers in the low minors and hit the wall by the time he reaches AA. The Mets seem to draft alot of those.

All of which is why I put Owings in the same category as Neighborgall. Both are riks, but the potential reward there is worth it.

by acerimusdux on May 29, 2005 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Disagree with Myself

I don't like my top 10; I have to revise it.

Gordon
Upton
Drew
Pelfrey
Maybin
Hochevar

Are the top 6. I think there's a pretty sharp drop off after that in talent. In the real world, I might have some reservations about Boras clients, but in a fantasy draft, there's no reason not to draft the top talents, and these are the guys who have clearly seperated themselves.

After that, there's still some good players, and the order I put them could change from day to day. For now I'll say:

Zimmerman
Tulowitzki
Weaver
Bruce
Hansen

by acerimusdux on May 30, 2005 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All about the Mets' POSITION

I really feel if the mets are in the hunt and their pen is still failing, Hansen may be the best choice because he COULD be fast tracked. Then again, the fact that Boras is his advisor makes it much more difficult, but he's a reliever and therefore shouldn't expect to receive a major league deal like Humber.

If not, I really think we need to stretch and go for Clement or Teagarden because its the weakest part of our system. Unfortunately there are no viable 1B to pick up in the first round. Both Clement and Teagarden may not be suitable to remain behind the plate and may end up at first anyways.

Drew and Weaver both will be drafted lower than last year, thats my prediction.

by thudean on May 28, 2005 7:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hansen

I think the Mets would have to go into that pick knowing they are gonna pay top dollar. They have a lack of picks and a major need that Hansen could potentially fill. They would have to be prepared to meet the demands of Boras becasue this is the type of pick that could backfire if it is not handled correctly.

by riktermiller on May 28, 2005 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Availability

These are the guys who may be there for the Mets at No. 9, listed in order of BA's ranking:

Because of Boras. Pelfrey, Hochevar, Weaver, Drew, Hansen.

Pelfrey or Hochevar would be nice, but expect long holdouts. Hansen could be in the 'pen by midseason '06, but as somebody noted, exactly how good was St. John's competition? Pass on Weaver. Drew is intriguing, but I'd have reservations about drafting a Drew. Plus, he'd be a 2B or OF for the Mets, and I think his value is diminished if he's not a SS.

Toolsy high school OFers. McCutchen, Bruce.

McCutchen is a bit undersized. Pass. Bruce is very intriguig--a lefty OF with terrific plate discipline, five tools and good CF defense. Plus, he'd probably be an easy sign. He's already dropped Boras as his advisor.

College hitters. Braun, Clement.

Let someone else gamble on Clement staying behind the plate. Braun, as an OF, could work. He's just the kind of prospect the Mets need: a hitter with patience and power (16 HR).

I'd bet three of Pelfrey, Hansen, Bruce or Braun will be on the board still at No. 9. Hansen and Bruce are the names that keep coming up with regards to the Mets. Haven't heard anyone project Pelfrey as a major league No. 1 starter. Hansen will almost certainly be available in the mock draft, but I'm a bit more intrigued by the ceilings of Bruce or Braun. I'd probably go with Bruce because of his youth and because he's a lefty--though Braun probably has more power.

Maybe our choice will be made for us by who goes in the top eight.

by Mr Met on May 28, 2005 9:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Notes

No one else seems to like Clement. I'm ok with passing on him and I think he might go to one of the three teams before us.

Bruce seems like one of the consensus top 3 hitters at our spot. I don't know anything about him or the competition he faced, but he sounds like a good choice.

In reality, Drew would probably drop to the Mets, but here, if he enters, some team might grab him. This is definitely wait and see.

Braun seems like a safety pick to me if everyone else is gone.

No one seems high on Pelfrey or Hochevar either. Pass.

Romero's someone who I think will be a good player, but I don't see how we can pass on one of the position players for him. If Drew signs and Bruce goes, I think he does rate above Braun.

I'll post a poll after we get good guesses at the first eight picks and Drew's situation is resolved. I'm not going to decide anything based on the poll, as others could vote on it, but I just want to get an idea.

Craig Hansen will be on the poll, but he's still very unlikely.

by JJ1986 on May 28, 2005 11:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

More notes & opinions

Bruce. From what I've heard, his strike-zone judgment is plus, but he doesn't yet have terrific HR pop. Wright didn't crush in high school, either. No complaints there. In fact, Bruce may be quite similar, though a little bigger, 6-2, 200. Speed is a strength--he's just as athletic as Milledge. Very good all around player. Seems to be great combo of tools/skills.

Drew. I like his talent, but questions about his ethic/drive have not gone away. Boras doesn't help. Very unemotional player. Questions about ability to hit with wood being answered a bit in Atlantic League. Might be a Chase Utley type with more speed and walks, less power. Or maybe he's the next Bobby Hill. I'd prefer other teams gamble on him.

Braun. He's hit in college, but he's moved down the defensive spectrum -- from SS as a freshman to 3B to (probably) corner OF in pros. Struggles in Cape Cod league and with injuries are marks against. Advanced prospect, in my opinion, but not exceptionally so.

Pelfrey and Hochevar. Love to have them, but just not worth the trouble -- in real life. Don't know how much that's supposed to play into our decision. They're good, but not worth the headache of dealing with Boras. Mets shoudld concentrate on Boras's major-league clients, not amateurs. Hansen might be the exception because Mets would seem to be ideal for him. Though I thought the same thing with Weaver and the Angels last year.

Romero. Starting to grow on me, as per your recommendation. Mets do love their lefties. Who's a good big league comp? I definitely think the Mets should look hitter first, but maybe we should consider him above Braun. Good topic for a vote.

by Mr Met on May 29, 2005 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Drew

The reason that I'm as high on Drew as I am is that I think by 2008, about when a college hitter drafted this year would get into the lineup, the team should still be set at 3B, SS and the 3 OF positions. If Drew can play second, he would be able to slot right into the lineup. I realize the Mets could always trade someone, but if we can add a 2B I think we should.

Personally, I'd rather have Lowrie, but I didn't think that anyone else would back me.

Drew does present a lot of problems.

I really question his drive if he turned down some insane number of millions of dollars to play.

His brother Tim was a highly regarded prospect once. Family lines only gives him a 50% chance of success.

He's been injured this year. His brother David Jonathan (JD) has a history of injury problems.

Right now, I think if Drew stays he'll be the top pick at 9, but I'd rather not have to make the choice between taking him and not taking him.

by JJ1986 on May 29, 2005 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Drew

My vote would go to not taking him. There's too much risk to justify the reward, in my opinion. Second basemen can be found in much later stages of the draft. Guys in the Jeff Keppinger mold are a dime a dozen.

by jeck on May 29, 2005 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No to Drew

Drew can be a talent yes. But all I need to know about Drew can be summed up from his past offseason. He is a headjob for not signing a contract and going back into the draft. He got injured playing in the Independent Atlantic League in the first week. And he has an underachieving money grubbing brother to take advice from. He has too many character issues for someone who we are projecting at a position he has never played. There are much better commodities and people where the Mets are picking.

by thudean on May 29, 2005 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Drew

Let's let him be someone else's gamble.

Sure the Mets will have Beltran in '08. But if Milledge flops (or is traded), Braun, for example, could slot in at LF, assuming the Mets still have one of Diaz or Milledge.

by Mr Met on May 29, 2005 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Drew

Drew should stay at SS.

And that shouldn't affect the pick; you never draft "need" this high in the draft. And the Mets needs right now, like catcher, first base, or second base, should all have been filled long before any of these guys is expected to be ready. I don't see holding one of those spots open for three years waiting for a prospect.

As the most polished hitter available, there's not much risk Drew's a bust. I think a fair comparison is more along the lines of Nomar Garciaparra or, at 2B, Jeff Kent, than the guys others are mentioning. It's a fairly safe bet that, two years from now, you have a good hitting SS with pop. That's about the most valuable trade commodity you can have.

If you really want an ace pitcher, or a first baseman, that will probably get you one then (or go along way towards it).

Really, I think he'll sign, and this debate will be moot, but I think he's tough to pass up if he's there.

by acerimusdux on May 29, 2005 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Needs

We're not going to draft to need, but the 2B situation is different from the other two. 1B is an easy position to fill. C will have to be filled, at the major league level, this offseason. 2B on the other hand, could very well be kept warm by people like Matsui and Keppinger. There's no one coming up in free agency or on the market unless the Mets want Soriano.

by JJ1986 on May 29, 2005 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Drew will hit all right

BA's Jim Callis really believes in Drew's bat, too. And I don't think anyone questions his talent.

To me, it's too big a risk to pay out $5 million-plus for a guy who's desire and drive is in question. (And with good reason: he's reputed to be more disinterested than J.D.) And, sure, J.D.'s a talented hitter, but Stephen's already demonstrated J.D.'s propensity for injury.

There's risk for any amateur making the transition, but I think this is a gamble we should force another team to make.

by Mr Met on May 29, 2005 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gamble

I think Drew is less of a gamble than any player in this draft.

And I don't know why anyone would question his drive. I don't think there has ever been any doubt about his work ethic; the guy clearly busts his but to be as good as he is, as consistently as he's been.

The only thing I've seen is that he's on the quiet side, but to interpret that as disinterest is a reach.

Most of the other guys who are likely to be there at #9 are more likely to be complete busts than above average big leaguers. That's the gamble I'd rather see another team take.

by acerimusdux on May 29, 2005 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A reach?

Here's what BA was saying about Drew in a post-'04 draft chat:

Q: Tom Merrick from Jamestown, ND asks:
Doesn't Stephen Drew seem to be asking for far more than his value from the DBacks? He doesn't look to be a future all-star, but seeks that kind of money. He may be the best of a mediocre draft for position players, but I hope the DBacks show some fiscal responsibility. Would they really suffer that much of a setback if he doesn't sign?
A: Jim Callis: Some scouts question Drew's desire (like they do with his brother J.D.) and some think he might fit better at second base or in center field than at shortstop, but no one questions his hitting ability and athleticism. He certainly has all-star potential. Would I give him a $6 million or $7 million major league contract if I were running a team? No, I'd have probably taken a less costly player.

Pre-draft scouting report from '04:

Stephen offers some similarities in tools (to J.D.), though scouts agree he's more like Todd Walker, though more athletic and better defensively. Stephen is a five-tool player, average across the board but with above-average speed and well-above-average hitting ability ... As a freshman, he missed 25 games with a broken foot and then carried Florida State to a 26-game winning streak. He was hurt again in 2003, tweaking his hamstring in a super-regional against Texas. The injuries have had two effects: Drew has never played extended time with wood bats, and he's taken on some of the makeup questions that dog his brother. Stephen hasn't shown much leadership in college, and scouts agree he doesn't play his best all the time--only when he wants to.

I never questioned his talent. I said observers regarded him as disinterested and injury-prone. To me, that's not worht a $5 million-plus commitment.

by Mr Met on May 29, 2005 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Clement

I don't dislike Clement, but I'm not sure he's worthy of this spot.

On the plus side, he's the moneyball player here; great plate discipline, great power potential.

The negative is that this is the first year in college that he's really hit for a high average.

I think there have to be some doubts about his bat, with the potential that he could become one of those AAA monster power types like Stratton who has great power but never hits enough for the majors. The great plate discipline will help, but that alone isn't enough.

He might hit enough for 1B, but he might not. I think he can probably stay at catcher though.

But I think Braun is a much better bat, and the better bet to hit enough for 1B or the OF, and I like Braun just a bit better overall, though Clement might be the next college guy on my board after Braun.

by acerimusdux on May 29, 2005 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Braun over Clement

No doubt. I'd be satisfied with a Braun pick. Less so with Clement.

Braun can unquestionably hit. Boy, when's the last time the Mets had a real prospect hit 20 homers in the minors?

by Mr Met on May 29, 2005 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some more prospects

These are players who are projected as mid to late first round, but who I think we should at least take a look at

Jed Lowrie (S), 2B, Stanford. He comes from a major college program. He should be ready quickly. He's a leadoff man. He plays a position we need to fill.

Taylor Teagarden (R), C, Texas. He should stick at catcher unlike Clement. He's good behind the dish. A serviceable hitter. Comes from a good program.

Jacoby Ellsbury (L), OF, Oregon State. Great Defense. He's great on the basepaths. He doesn't strike out. He'd also make a good leadoff man.

Trevor Crowe (B), OF, Arizona. Also exceptionally fast. He's coming off of a great season.

Cliff Pennington (B), SS, Texas A & M. He's another guy who could slot near the top of the order.

Stephen Head (L), 1B/P, Mississippi. 1B is a position where the Mets are sorely lacking prospect. They also look like they'll have a right -leaning lineup for the forseeable future, especially in the middle.

Cesar Ramos (L), P, Long Beach State. Improved his strikeout rate dramatically in the last year. He's also way above average at BB/9 and HR/9.

by JJ1986 on May 29, 2005 12:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

In Regards to other prospects

Teagarden would be a reach, even though he fills a need spot. Stephen Head is as well, but still an intriguing guy. Ramos is intriguing, especially because lefties are always in high demand. Crowe really doesn't fill a need for a power hitting corner outfielder. He's a hit and scratch man. Ellsbury is a rising guy, but similarly to Crowe, he doesn't have projectable power which is something we need for our Outfielders. Pennington and Lowrie I know little about, so no comment

by thudean on May 29, 2005 3:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

College prospects

Unless the Mets go cheap, I can't imagine any of these guys making sense at No. 9. (Too bad we've got no supplemental pick.) Ramos is good, but for our purposes, i.e. not having to deal with Boras, I think Pelfrey or Hochevar would make more sense.

My chief reservation about Lowrie is that guys who are drafted as 2B have poor records of developing into above-average major-league talents (Warren Morris, Todd Walker). It's like they're just good enough for the infield, but not quite good enough for SS or 3B.

Only concern about Crowe or Ellsbury is ceiling. I think we should aim higher. They make terrific sense for teams picking 15-30. Teagarden, though, hasn't hit much in college. No reason to think he'll start in the pros.

by Mr Met on May 29, 2005 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reason

I posted this list in case something happens where we're left with none of our choices. Concievably Drew could sign and the first eight picks could go Upton, Gordon, Maybin, Tuwolksi, Zimmerman, Romero, Braun, Bruce.

In that case Clement, Hochevar and Pelfrey would probably be the top choices, but I'm not convinved about any of them.

by JJ1986 on May 29, 2005 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

in that scenario

I think we'd have to at least consider going with Hansen.

Of the players listed, the only player who in my opinion is worthy of consideration is Ellsbury. He plays a premium defensive position and does so very well. Even he's a big reach, but I might take him if those 8 go first.

Btw, under no circumstances do I think we should take Tulowitzki.

by jeck on May 29, 2005 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Tulowitzki rates lower on my board than every other top prospect except McCormick. Unless someone has a reason why we should, he's not a choice.

If I have to decide between Hansen and Clement, my personal choice would be Clement every time.

I'm wondering what the real difference is between a 9 pick (Our spot) and a 20-25 pick. I would guess that it wouldn't be much, meaning that anyone ranked in the first round would probably be a reasonable choice.

If the difference is a lot, then I'd be less likely to consider someone who's lower on most boards.

I think we'd have to look at McCutheon too if we get to the point where all of our choices are gone. I'm not high on him, but he's someone to consider.

by JJ1986 on May 29, 2005 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

McCutchen

From BA's draft preview:

"McCuthcen's game isn't all about tools, though his tools are plus across the board. That starts with the most important tool: the bat. He has quick hands and a compact swing, producing surprising raw power for his size and giving him the bat speed to lash line drives to all fields. His athletic ability, speed and frame earn comparisons to Lastings Milledge, but he's more polished at the plate, earning 60 and 70 grades from scouts with 50 raw power."

Not sure exactly what he's earned 60s and 70s in. Hitting for average and speed, I guess. McCutchen is a righty.

That would give the Mets the coolest outfielder names in the business, too. Andrew McCutchen in left, Lastings Milledge in right.

by Mr Met on May 29, 2005 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Milledge & McCutchen

Both would be below average players for a corner outfield spot.

I like both as centerfield/leadoff type hitters.

It's possible, but not likely, that one of the two might become as productive a bat as a Shannon Stewart, who does leadoff while playing a corner. But I wouldn't count on it.

A more reasonable hope for both might be to become a Juan Pierre type in CF, with a bit more pop.

Both guys might have surprising pop for their size, but in both cases the size and power are not what you normally would want in a corner outfielder.

But having a depth of that type of player already (Brinkley and Pagan might be somewhat similar but with lower ceilings), still shouldn't prevent the Mets from taking McCutchen if he's the best player available. And, I agree he might be in the mix there.

by acerimusdux on May 30, 2005 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hansen

Yeah, I like Hansen, too, even if his ceiling is more limited than others. The flip side is he's as safe a bet as anyone to reach that ceiling.

BA ranks him as having the best breaking ball (slider) and the second-best fastball among collegians. He's also considered closest to the majors.

If the Mets draft him and sign him for a bonus in the neightborhood of $2.5 million, well that'll be cheaper than singing a quality free agent reliever. The Mets would be paying for Hansen's prime seasons, too.

I think we have to seriously consider him, though maybe not above a bat.

I mean, people didn't think Chad Cordero was anything special when the Expos picked him in the first. Now he's a top closer. Wagner and Street are other top college relievers I'd love to have.

by Mr Met on May 29, 2005 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Teagarden

Teagarden, like Tyler Greene, is one of those guys who was once seen as a potential first rounder becaause of his defense, but in both cases, it looks at this point like they won't hit any more than a Rey Ordonez.

A couple of the leadoff guys you mentioned are more interesting, but still fairly low ceiling guys. There's no way Lowrie should go when Tulowitzki is still on the board.

I think Ellsbury, Crowe, and Pennington are the most interesting of that list, but in this draft, there seems to me to be too much talent at the top to be drafting down to mid rounders here.

by acerimusdux on May 29, 2005 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Clement

From everthing that has been said regarding Clement this season he looks like he will stay behind the plate. he had made great strides with his footwork and shows the ability to continue growing. He is not Eric Munson

by riktermiller on May 29, 2005 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Reason

You're quite right. In our mock draft, it's conceivable all our guys will be gone. Wonder what our Top 9 will look like when we get a feel for those we can eliminate from consideration.

Here's an interesting bit ripped off the Blue Jays' MOD, posted by Pistol:

Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Wichita St
6'7", 215 lbs, 1/14/84
Year Inn ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
2005 122.2 1.98 9.2 1.9 0.2
2004 115.1 2.18 9.8 1.9 0.2
2003 104.2 2.49 8.5 1.3 0.8

Ricky Romero, LHP, Cal St Fullerton
6'1", 195 lbs, 11/6/84
Year Inn ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
2005 112.0 2.57 9.6 2.3 0.2
2004 155.0 3.37 7.3 2.4 0.5
2003 56.1 3.20 7.4 2.9 0.6

Luke Hochevar, RHP, Tennessee
6'5', 205 lbs, 9/15/83
Year Inn ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
2005 111.2 1.93 10.0 3.3 0.4
2004 63.0 2.86 8.6 3.3 1.0
2003 77.2 4.64 8.5 2.8 1.0

Notice Hochevar's substandard control. Romero might get a bump over Hochevar, in my view, because of superior competition faced.

by Mr Met on May 29, 2005 1:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Righties

They're both good prospects, but if there's anything the Mets don't need, it's right-handed starting pitchers. Two of our top three prospects, most of our mid-level prospects, Seo, Heilman, Benson and Pedro are all righty pitchers. If even half of them are in our rotation for the future, we'll be full.

If we had more picks, I'd be more inclined to take one of them, but as is, I'd rather have either Romero or a position player.

by JJ1986 on May 29, 2005 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Romero

Hmmm, interesting. But if we think Pelfrey's more talented, I think it's irrelevant which hand Romero throws with. I'll grant you Romero over Hochevar.

I'm sure other teams would be interested in trading for Humber, Petit or Pelfrey if the Mets shopped them.

Besides, look what happened the last time the Mets had an all-world lefty pitching prospect. We wound up with Victor f'in Zambrano.

by Mr Met on May 29, 2005 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Romero over Pelfrey

I like Romero better regardless of what arm he throws with. Pelfrey's secondary stuff seems to be nothing noteworthy. He's got a fastball that can reach the mid 90s, but how many college pitchers have we seen that had that kind of fastball in college and then never throw that hard again in the pros? Especially when a guy's arm has been abused like Pelfrey's seems to have been at Wichita State. And for someone who does throw that hard, it's surprising how no one seems to portray him as a potential frontline starter. I love the complete, polished package of Romero.

by jeck on May 29, 2005 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Romero over Pelfrey

Fair points, all. You're right: I haven't seen anyone project Pelfrey as a No. 1 guy. And he is best known for his four-seamer velocity, not his entire arsenal.

Another strike against him may be his performance this season. A preseasn All-American, Pelfrey's performed well this season, but he's not setting the world on fire. I'm comfortable passing on him, as everyone else seems to be.

To me, the only pitchers the Mets should look seriously at, then, would be Hansen and Romero.

For hitters, I really like Maybin, Bruce and Braun. And Gordon and Zimmerman, obviously, but there's about zero chance they fall.

Somebody mentioned a distaste for Tulowitzki. Why is that?

by Mr Met on May 29, 2005 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybin

Cameron Maybin is a guy who might slip in our mock draft because of a (presumed) preference for college players, and because we won't have to negotiate contracts.

This is a guy we should be prepared to take, in my opinion. Thoughts?

I might like Jay Bruce a little better becuase of his strike-zone judgment, but Maybin is a five-tool switch-hitter with athleticism and a good build: 6-3, 195.

He was BA's youth player of the year in '04.

by Mr Met on May 29, 2005 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybin

I really can't see him slipping this far. If he makes it, though, I think we have to take him regardless. I'm about as low on High School players as someone can be, and I'd advoacte it.

by JJ1986 on May 29, 2005 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

doubt he drops

The Rockies seem ready to take him at 7 if he makes it that far.

by jeck on May 29, 2005 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

If Maybin falls that far, though, it is much more likely that we'll get Bruce.

by JJ1986 on May 29, 2005 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Something else

Bruce faced tougher competition in Texas than Maybin did in the Smokie Mountains of western North Carolina.

by Mr Met on May 29, 2005 3:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

is J.D. Drew that bad??

Most Met fans I knew would have been pretty happy if we had signed J.D. Drew this offseason. Were y'all not among them? The man has a lifetime 900 OPS; any "underachieving" on his part is probably as much because dingus LaRussa platooned him as anything else. He has had injury problems in the past, but not since he left St. Louis, and anyway, I don't know of any reason to suspect injury-proneness correlates particularly well among baseball relatives. I don't think being related to J.D. is a negative for Stephen. I don't think it's particularly a positive either; I don't consider it especially relevant.

I'm not convinced that he is the draft, by any means. I am thinking Maybin, Bruce, Braun in that order; Drew would be vying with Braun for my #3. But, let's not eliminate him solely on the basis of his brother; let's at least have a better reason.

by dcarrano on May 29, 2005 7:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Drew Tude

No, JD Drew isn't bad, he's bad for the money he got and wanted (11 million a year). I still say being anything Drew with Boras as an agent equals a bad idae.

by thudean on May 29, 2005 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My Thoughts

Round 1 - Pelfrey is my top guy. Among the HS bats likely to be available I like McCutcheon, Bruce, and Rasmus. The only college hitter that I expect to be available that I like is Ellsbury, but I think he is more of a leadoff hitter than the slugger we need. If we cannot get Pelfrey, I like Cal State-Fullerton LHP Ricky Romero and Utah prep LHP Mark Pawelek (even if he is represented by Scott Boras!). Matt Torra is intriguing, but I do not see his upside as being as high as other pitchers

Rounds 4 & 5 - Ideally I would like to see us land South Carolina prep 1B Justin Smoak (I love his swing and I think he can move fast through the minors) and Georgia College LHP Matt Goyen (I do not care if he has ideal stuff, he has flat out produced and he has the frame to add some speed). Also intriguing is the two-way potential of someone like Michigan prep 3B/P Zach Putnam and South Carolina prep SS Reese Havens

by mtk52983 on May 31, 2005 3:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs