Minor League Ball Community Projection: Corey Patterson

by John Sickels on Mar 5, 2005 12:37 PM EST in News

Our First Victim

Aggregate Corey Patterson Projection

We had 64 entries in the Corey Patterson Projection Experiment. Here is what we came up with as a "group" prediction. I've also posted what other systems are predicting.

Our Community Projection BA: .275 OBP: .333 SLG: .475 SB: 27
Baseball Prospectus Proj BA: .278 OBP: .330 SLG: .475 SB: 24
Bill James Handbook Proj BA: .277 OBP: .317 SLG: .465 SB: 25
Baseball Forecaster Proj BA: .257 OBP: .298 SLG: .439 SB: 26
ZIPS Baseball Think Tank BA: .275 OBP: .320 SLG: .449 SB: 24
John Sickels Experimental BA: .282 OBP: .330 SLG: .477 SB: 26

We will track this as the season progresses.
Question: should we do other "community projections," and if so, what players should we pick?

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Comments

We are alike

Especially with BP projections. BP is PECOTA right? Anyways, why did baseball forecaster project him with a .298 OBP? That really really surprises me. About the community question. I say yes. I don't know who to choose. My first choice would be rookies. Second would be interesting players (like Corey Patterson) or players who are extremely talented yet haven't had that one breakout year yet (Eric Chavez comes to mind)

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Mar 5, 2005 12:48 PM EST reply actions

PECOTA

Speaking of "Is PECOTA right?" Does anyone else think its projections are extremely conservative this year?

Sickels, this site rules!!!

by count sutton on Mar 5, 2005 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

Forecaster on Patterson

As the group lowballer, I'm right with Shandler and his Baseball Forecaster. Patterson's Eye ratio blows. There was no statistical evidence last year to support an increase from his .266 BA; in fact, the numbers predict a drop.

by reviser273 on Mar 6, 2005 12:24 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, his eye ratio is weak

but he did show improvement in his BB rate from the previous year. Also, his BABIP last year was .328, down from .356 the previous year. I expect Patterson to have huge swings from year in his BABIP rate, with .325 being the low end of the spectrum for him and .360 being the high end.

by KCH on Mar 7, 2005 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

I'd like to see one for

Adrian Beltre

by jte87 on Mar 5, 2005 1:04 PM EST reply actions

how about....

Justin Morneau?

by erudite @ Minor League Ball on Mar 5, 2005 1:09 PM EST reply actions

Beltre is a good idea

In general, guys with widely divergent theories about his future.

I'm interested in David Wright as well, because I know a lot of Mets fans are upset with what various sytems are projecting him to.

by bibigon on Mar 5, 2005 1:15 PM EST reply actions

how bout some guys changing leagues

Guys like Matt Clement, Wade Miller or Sosa. . . I'm not a huge Sosa fan, but he is changing leagues and will be under the steroid microscope, so it could be interesting so see what people think he will do.

by SoCalSoxFan on Mar 5, 2005 1:54 PM EST reply actions

Projections

Brandon Backe would be an interesting one.

by stubbyc on Mar 5, 2005 1:58 PM EST reply actions

the bat

Pat Burrell

by donniebaseballman on Mar 5, 2005 1:59 PM EST reply actions

I second

Chavez.

Also Aramis Ramirez could be REALLY interesting. I'm in a whole different world though, 99.9% of Cubs fans expect him to get better this year, I don't.

by SenorGato88 on Mar 5, 2005 2:27 PM EST reply actions

Cubs fan

I don't know if he will be better. I think his AVG and OBP will dip, but his HR will stay the same or go up.

by Ienpw on Mar 6, 2005 3:10 AM EST up reply actions

In general

I would like different types of players. Players who are off of career years, rookies, coming off injury, over the hill, or switching leagues. Here is my list:

Jeff Kent
Oliver Perez
Nick Swisher
Carlos Beltran
Matt Clement
Adam Dunn

and how about....

7. AJ Burnett

I know it's a long list, but they're just suggestions.

Sickels, this site rules!!!

by count sutton on Mar 5, 2005 2:40 PM EST reply actions

Better Idea

Can I just post names during my fantasy draft and just get real time projections on my cell phone?

Sickels, this site rules!!!

by count sutton on Mar 5, 2005 5:52 PM EST up reply actions

Sorry

Here are some guys I'd like to see get done, I know and understand not all of them will get done:

Kerry Wood
Eric Chavez
Hank Blalock
Adrian Beltre
Joe Mauer
BJ Upton
Grady Sizemore
Nick Swisher
Bobby Crosby
Jason Dubois
Corey Patterson
Hee Seop Choi

And if you read and take guys from this list, think it could be in Kerry Wood, Swisher, Choi, Crosby, Upton, CPat, Dubois, Chavez, Mauer, and then whoever you wanna go with from there.

Thats a long list. Got greedy. Sorry.

by SenorGato88 on Mar 5, 2005 4:13 PM EST reply actions

ideas (hitters)

Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Carl Crawford, Edgar Renteria, Wily Mo Pena, Victor Martinez, Scott Rolen, Brad Wilkerson, J.D. Drew, David DeJesus, Cliff Floyd, Ben Broussard....

If I had to choose, I'd go with Rolen.

by jeck on Mar 5, 2005 4:16 PM EST reply actions

User comments on...

This is "MINORleagueball.com" so if we're going to project MLB'ers, let's look at rookies...

Swisher
McPhearson
Kazmir

...some of those guys.

-peter

by PeterF on Mar 5, 2005 4:25 PM EST reply actions

minor

The point about this being Minorleagueball.com is a good one. Although I do want to deal with established players at times (particularly like right now when there is no minor league activity going on), the main focus will be on rookies and very young players.

by John Sickels on Mar 6, 2005 10:39 AM EST up reply actions

re: minor

Discussion on this site will always be minor league heavy. But i see no reason why just b/c a players surpasses 130 abs or 50 innings he's now dead to discussion. I think its still worthwhile to debate emerging young major leaguers. Afterall, most seemed to enjoy the Young Pitcher Symposium.

free Josh Willingham!

by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on Mar 6, 2005 10:17 PM EST up reply actions

Players I'd like to see

Mauer, J. Reyes, Bobby Crosby, Nick Swisher, Austin Kearns, W.M. Pena, Upton, Sizemore, Jeff Francis, Foppert, Terrmel Sledge, and Felix Hernandez if he makes it.

Guys I'm most interested in:
Mauer, Reyes, Upton, Francis, Hernandez, and Sledge

by AaronMullen on Mar 5, 2005 5:12 PM EST reply actions

On and Off players

How about players that have had great seasons followed by mediocrity, or vice versa. Scott Podsednik comes to mind.

by shaftr on Mar 5, 2005 7:59 PM EST reply actions

Texiera

I would like to see Texiera and maybe Hidalgo

by gk314 on Mar 6, 2005 12:52 AM EST reply actions

I'll second Morneau

and throw in Morgan Ensberg

by Ienpw on Mar 6, 2005 3:09 AM EST reply actions

Ensberg

Whats up with him? He showed great power in his first full season. THen last year he started off so bad. It took forever for him to get to 2 homers. Slugging was down last year.

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Mar 7, 2005 8:14 AM EST up reply actions

Ensberg

My theory is that the elbow trouble he had entering the spring severely impacted his ability to extend through his swing, negating his power. He tried to compensate by cheating on pitches and things proceded to go even further south. Combine that with the fact that opposing pitchers were more familiar with him and you have a recipe for disaster.

I expect him to have a bounceback year, but I also think that expectations were too high entering last year.

by KCH on Mar 7, 2005 11:20 AM EST up reply actions