Philadelphia Phillies Top 20 Prospects

The band is just fantastic, that is really what I think, oh by the way, which one's Pink?

1. Gavin Floyd, RHP, A-              
   
2. Ryan Howard, 1B, B+              
   
3. Cole Hamels, LHP, B              
   
4. Michael Bourn, OF, B            
   
5. Greg Golson, OF, B              
   
6. Jake Blalock, OF, B-            
   
7. Scott Mitchinson, RHP, C+        
   
8. J.A. Happ, LHP, C+                
   
9. Nate Cabrera, RHP, C+            
   
10. Scott Mathieson, RHP, C          
    
11. Carlos Carrasco, RHP, C          
    
12. Jason Jaramillo, C, C          
    
13. Eude Brito, LHP, C              
    
14. Francisco Butto, RHP, C          
    
15. Pedro Liriano, RHP, C            
    
16. Carlos Ruiz, C, C                        
    
17. Zach Segovia, RHP, C            
    
18. Robinson Tejeda, RHP, C
    
19. Sean Gamble, OF, C              
    
20. Chris Roberson, OF, C          

I have Gavin Floyd at A-, and I like his medium and long-term prognosis, but I'm not sure he's ready to do well out the gate in the Show in '05. His K/BB and K/IP rates are not as good as you'd expect given his stuff, and I think he needs to make a few more adjustments.

Ryan Howard is blocked, of course. I think his power is real, but his batting average and OBP have a wide range of possible variation.

Yes, Phillies fans, I am aware that Cole Hamels has the most raw talent of anyone on this list. I have him at Grade B right now because of last year's elbow problems (which I find very worrisome), as well as the stupidity of the bar fight. If he is healthy and has his head screwed on straight this year, he'll move back up quickly. Remember that Grade B is not an insult in my system, but it does reflect the uncertainties in his profile.

I like Bourn a lot as a future leadoff guy. '04 draft pick Golson looks good early, although plate discipline will be an issue. Many of the Grade C pitchers (Brito and Butto in particular) have live arms but sketchy and inconsistent track records. I like Segovia a lot, but have him at Grade C now until we see how well he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Robinson Tejeda posted a decent ratio set in Double-A, but an 8-14 record and an ERA in excess of 5.00. He has some potential as a sleeper, in the sense that he underperformed his ratios last year. Either his ratios will get worse or his ERA will get better.

Keith Bucktrot and Kiel Fisher could be on the list as well depending on what you want to emphasize. Bucktrot has a great arm but horrible statistics. Fisher is a talented batsman who missed all of 2004 due to injury. He can hit but his defense needs a lot of work. If healthy he could move up quickly this year. Due to these uncertainties, both Bucktrot and Fisher are Grade C guys at this point.

Carlos Carrasco could be underrated at Grade C, and there is a chance he could emerge as a Grade B (or maybe even higher) this year. Keep an eye on him.