Detroit Tigers Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Mar 3, 2005 12:21 PM EST in News Comment 20 comments

Curtis Granderson at the University of Illinois-Chicago

Justin Verlander, RHP, B+
Curtis Granderson, OF, B
Tony Giarratano, SS, B
Kyle Sleeth, RHP, B-
Joel Zumaya, RHP, B-
Jeff Frazier, OF, C+
Ryan Raburn, 2B, C+
Chris Shelton, 1B, C+
Juan Tejeda, 1B, C+
Lucas French, LHP, C+
Eric Beattie, RHP, C+
Andrew Kown, RHP, C+
Humberto Sanchez, RHP, C
Brent Clevlen, OF, C
Eulogio de la Cruz, RHP, C
Collin Mahoney, RHP, C
Josh Kauten, RHP, C
Kenny Baugh, RHP, C
Matt Vasquez, RHP, C
Dallas Trahern, RHP, C

Oh, boy, what a dismal system. Even Verlander at Grade B+ is a risk; he has no pro track record, and while he has an excellent arm, there are some questions about his command and his polish. I really like Curtis Granderson, one of my favorite Grade Bs and perhaps should be a B+. I don't know what people are talking about when they complain that he's not toolsy enough. He runs well, has a quick bat, and I think is underrated as an athlete. He's also very intelligent. Giarratano is an infield version of Granderson: a polished guy who is an underrated athlete.

After that, things really thin out fast. Sleeth and Zumaya are hard throwers, but both have problems with their command and mechanics. Jeff Frazier looks like a possible sleeper, but he's an '04 draft and we need to get more data about him. Shelton and Tejeda can hit, but are limited defensively and will have to fight for platoon/DH/1B roles.

The Tigers have a bunch of live arms, with several guys who can hit 95 MPH or higher. But strangely enough most of them don't actually pitch very well. De la Cruz and Sanchez both burn the radar, but both have sketchy track records and are more throwers than pitchers. The same thing can be said for Collin Mahoney and Josh Kauten. De la Cruz's K/IP is bizarrely low for a guy with an alleged 100 MPH fastball.

On the other hand, guys like Kenny Baugh and Matt Vasquez throw strikes and know how to pitch, but have marginal stuff and will have to be perfect to survive at higher levels. A sleeper is Dallas Trahern, a 34th round pick from an Oklahoma high school last June, but he is a long way away. I haven't given up on Grade C outfielder Brent Clevlen, but he needs to rebound this year.

Other Grade C guys you could include are RHPs Nate Bumstead, Josh Rainwater, and Jay Sborz, and OF David Espinosa.

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Tiggers

You know your farm system is in trouble when--your #8 prospect is one year removed from the Rule V draft.

by scarfo on Mar 3, 2005 12:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Shelton

How many years removed is Johan Santana from the Rule V draft?

Even closer to home...how about Wil Ledezma?

I dont think you can just look at a player and say "hes a rule V pick, so hes worthless", thats not always the case.

Shelton has a strong bat, the fact that hes "only" ranked 8th in this weak system is surprisingly low to me....although you think thats a high rank. Which I don't really understand, but thats allright....

by SpartanValor on Mar 3, 2005 2:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Santana

1999

by Ienpw on Mar 3, 2005 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Santana

so scarfo would have given up on him 5 years ago...

by SpartanValor on Mar 3, 2005 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

Did I say Shelton was "worthless". No. But thanks for putting words in my mouth. It's an indication on the Tigers system NOT Shelton's abilities. All Rule V selections have skills, otherwise teams would not select them. But to draft a raw, under-developed player and suddenly that player is in their top 10...well that is an indication on how weak their system is.

P.S. you can't compare Santana to Shelton. The Twins know what they are doing and the Tigers have no clue.

by scarfo on Mar 4, 2005 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

French

Why is Luke French so high? I've yet to see him ranked very high at all. Most people seem to think that Trahern is the superior prospect, but they were both impressive last year in their pro debuts.

The Tigers system seems full of pitchers in A-Ball that are going to weed eachother out this year. Guys like Tata, Vasquez, Martinez, Rogers, Baldwin might emerge as something, but each are very flawed.

Also, keep an eye open for Jair Jurrjens.

All and all, a good report on the system. I was surprised at French and the relievers being so high, but when you have exactly two positions prospects that will be below AAA this year, I can understand mediocrity creeping onto the list.

by Edman85 on Mar 3, 2005 1:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clevlen

I just noticed that Clevlen is listed as a RHP instead of a RF.

by Edman85 on Mar 3, 2005 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

clevlen

Typo on Clevlen. Will fix.

French, I dunno. Just an instinct about him. I like Trahern too.

by John Sickels on Mar 3, 2005 1:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

French

Maybe becuase Anton French did so well?

by doubledribble on Mar 3, 2005 2:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clevlen

I have to admit I wasted a scoresheet pick on Clevlen based on your comments in the 2004 book.
Can't be right all the time.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen.

by Phil Gurnee on Mar 3, 2005 2:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

sorry

Sorry. I really liked Clevlen. He went backward in every phase of the game last year.

Lakeland, where prospects go to die.

by John Sickels on Mar 3, 2005 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tony Giarratano or Omar Infante?

Tony Giarratano is one year younger, but hasn't played above A. Infante showed promise last season as a 22 year old in the bigs. Granted he had a 112:40 K:BB but you can't negate the 100 OPS+ and 15/15 that he had. Infante didn't show power in the minors so it'll be interesting to see how the two kids turn out.

by Ienpw on Mar 3, 2005 2:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

this is sad

I Tigers really don't have much going for them. They can't attract the big stars. They don't even have much hope for the future.

by mrmetaa on Mar 3, 2005 3:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Shelton

I have to wonder how he'll bounce back after the Rule 5 year. Shelton struggled at AA in a cameo in '03 and then spent a whole year with ~125 pretty unproductive PA split between AAA and the majors. The power numbers and the K/W ratio are plusses, but I think we have to be a bit cautious until we see how he rebounds from what was more or less a wasted development year. If he gets back close to his A-ball numbers, he won't be a C+ next year. He might be more likely to help a team as a catcher over the short run, but I don't think he'd have a long career as a catcher.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org

by MikeE on Mar 3, 2005 3:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Shelton

He destroyed the AFL. I don't know much about him, why was he unprotected, and why did he never make the BA Pirates top 10 prospects lists even though he was hitting great? Bad Defense?

by kgknapp on Mar 4, 2005 3:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: French

I played against French in high school. Personally I think he'd be a better 1B than a pitcher - I know some other teams agree with that sentiment. He was fearsome at the plate.

On the mound, he's very raw but he already has a good skill base - decent velocity on the fastball and off-speed pitches that he can get strikeouts with. When he starts increasing that velocity, which I believe will come with time, he's got a chance to be pretty tough, if not necessarily overpowering.

The Future Is Now - Jeff Francis, #26, Colorado Rockies

by Franchise26 on Mar 3, 2005 4:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just for grins and giggles

Tigers' top draft picks, 1993-2004:

Matt Brunson
Cade Gaspar
Mike Drumwright
Seth Greisinger
Matt Anderson
Jeff Weaver
Eric Munson
Matt Wheatland
Kenny Baugh
Scott Moore
Kyle Sleeth
Justin Verlander

From 94-99, in addition to Greisinger, Anderson, Weaver, and Munson, the Tigers also got:

Bubba Trammell and Javier Cardona (they also drafted and later traded Daryle Ward, Mike Darr, and Dave Roberts)
Brian Powell, Dave Borkowski, and Gabe Kapler (they drafted, but did not sign, Mark Mulder)
Robert Fick and (briefly) Kris Keller and Chris Wakeland
Shane Loux (they drafted, but did not sign, Bud Smith)
Nate Cornejo, Brandon Inge, Andres Torres, and (briefly) Adam Pettyjohn
(briefly) Cody Ross and Eric Eckenstahler (they also had Jason Frasor, who debuted with Toronto last year).

They have nothing from the 2000 draft (although minor league closer Lee Rodney might get a shot some day), Raburn from 2001, Clevlen and Granderson from 2002.

That's a pretty severe dry spell.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org

by MikeE on Mar 3, 2005 6:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Espinosa

I think Espinosa, who you mentioned as a C grade, is a real sleeper pick.

He had a major step forward last year when they shifted him from MI to CF.

He was always projected as a five tool SS when he was a Boras guy back in the day.

I could see him sneaking up this year in AAA.

by jmcclain19 on Mar 3, 2005 7:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Espinosa

Espinosa was moved to the outfield in 2003 while with Lakeland, and he is not a CFer, nor will he ever be. He's not a natural outfielder, and struggles reading balls. In the 20 or so times I saw him last year, he needed a map and compass out there. He's got a lot of work to do defensively.

In addition to his defensive struggles, he really fell off from July on last year with Erie. His first half was spectacular, but his strikeout numbers went back up, walks went back down, contact went down, power decreased....basically he regressed big time in the second half.

He will be repeating Erie in 2005, and will really need to take a step forward if he wants any shot. He's still young enough to have a shot, but he'll need to nail down some consistency soon.

by MarkA on Mar 4, 2005 10:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs