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Baltimore Orioles Top 20 Prospects


Nick Markakis and Val Majewski

  1. Nick Markakis, OF, B+            
  2. Val Majewski, OF, B+            
  3. Jeff Fiorentino, OF, B          
  4. Hayden Penn, RHP, B              
  5. Chris Ray, RHP, B                
  6. John Maine, RHP, B-              
  7. Tripper Johnson, 3B, C+          
  8. Adam Loewen, LHP, C+              
  9. Walter Young, 1B-DH, C+            
  10. Jacobo Sequea, RHP, C+            
  11. Eli Whiteside, C, C            
  12. David Haehnel, LHP, C            
  13. James Johnson, RHP, C            
  14. Nate Spears, 2B, C              
  15. Keith Reed, OF, C              
  16. Rob McCrory, RHP, C              
  17. Tony Neal, RHP, C                
  18. Carlos Perez, LHP, C            
  19. Jarod Rine, OF, C              
  20. Freddy Deza, RHP, C              
Another very thin system. I like all three of the outfielders at the top. Markakis could develop into a Steve Finley/Brady Anderson type, although he won't be ready for another year or two. Majewski is closer to being ready. He doesn't have Markakis' ceiling, but he does a lot of things well and should be a solid all-around player. Fiorentino could have the best bat of the trio, but will have to show he can control the strike zone adequately.

UPDATE: A reader points out that Majewski had surgery to repair a torn labrum last week and is expected to miss all of the 2005 season.

Hayden Penn and Chris Ray are both solid Grade B pitching prospects. We need to see how they do in Double-A, but both have a decent shot to develop into rotation starters, though I don't think either will be an anchor or ace. John Maine's stock dropped a bit last year, but I still like his chances long-term. Again, he won't be an ace. Adam Loewen has the highest ceiling of any of the pitchers, but hurt his labrum last summer and is now a big health questionmark. Jacobo Sequea has a chance to be an effective middle reliever.

Tripper Johnson has been on and off prospect lists. I've always liked him as a sleeper and he spiked his home run power last year, but will have to show his bat will hold up in Double-A. Walter Young fits into the Sam Horn/Calvin Pickering category: big, slow, lots of power, lots of strikeouts. These guys can be useful players: for all his weaknesses, Sam Horn's career OPS was 18 percent better than Major League average. Young could put up similar numbers.  

Then you get into a big mass of Grade C guys. Eli Whiteside has a good glove but a questionable bat. He hit for power last year, but his batting average and OBP abilities remain shaky due to poor plate discipline. Keith Reed showed glimmers of finally putting his tools to use last year. . .in his third shot in Double-A. There are several guys who have live arms (Rob McCrory, Carlos Perez, Brian Finch) but have command problems and/or have not pitched yet at higher levels. Then you have guys who have pitched well (James Johnson, Zach Dixon, Luis Ramirez, Freddy Deza) but who have marginal stuff and may not hold up against better competition.

Overall, the Orioles have a lot of work to do rebuilding the system. People have been writing that for years. It is still true.

ANOTHER UPDATE: the original list I posted had Luke Hagerty, Rule 5 pick, on the list. That was a sloppy mistake on my part; he was traded by the Orioles to the Marlins after the Rule 5 draft. Sorry for the error.

0 recs | Comment 28 comments

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majewski
March 6: The Baltimore Sun reports that Val Majewski (OF) underwent successful surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. He will miss the entire season but could be able to play in winter ball.
free Josh Willingham!

by natsfan2005 on Mar 13, 2005 1:08 PM EST   0 recs

ack
Ack. Missed that one. Well, obviously you have to put him back a year.

by John Sickels on Mar 13, 2005 1:14 PM EST   0 recs

Walt Young
Young strikes me as the type of player who may be an effective right-handed platoon slugger during his late 20's in the majors.  Does anyone know his splits in the minors?

The O's are probably thinking he can be a legimate fulltime first baseman but I say not.  Any thoughts, John?

by feast on Mar 13, 2005 1:26 PM EST   0 recs

young
I think Young could be an effective platoon first baseman/DH. Full-time? Dunno. Would have to check his L/R splits.

by John Sickels on Mar 13, 2005 1:46 PM EST   0 recs

Young's splits
In his big year in the SAL, Young hit LHPs almost exactly the same as RHPs.  Don't know about the last two years.

by WTM on Mar 13, 2005 4:50 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Brandon Fahey
Does he have a shot to develop at all?

by gk314 on Mar 13, 2005 2:23 PM EST   0 recs

OF
 I agree, I like the outfielders at the top, and then it gets a little thin.

Do Markasis and Majewski appear to be Nixon types?  maybe 30 doubles, 15-20 HR's?

Any comparisons you had in mind?

Go Jays

by SharpeShooter on Mar 13, 2005 2:24 PM EST   0 recs

nixon?
Nixon would be the high end. Markakis is more of a speed guy right now but he might slow down and spike more power eventually.

by John Sickels on Mar 13, 2005 2:28 PM EST   0 recs

also...
 I'm curious about a former prospect, Larry Bigbie.  He finished with decent numbers last year, could he breakout this year?  I heard he might hit second, but I cant see them pushing whole order down.
Go Jays

by SharpeShooter on Mar 13, 2005 2:29 PM EST   0 recs

Luke Hagerty
correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't he currently on the Marlins spring training team?

by the way, did the Orioles really trade Denny Baustista for Jason Grimsley? really?

We have, I fear, confused power with greatness.

by jrfelix on Mar 13, 2005 4:35 PM EST   0 recs

hagerty
Yeah, sloppy sloppy!!!  Need to fix.

by John Sickels on Mar 13, 2005 7:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

bautista
And yes, they did trade Bautista to the Royals for Jason Grimsley.

by John Sickels on Mar 13, 2005 7:20 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Dustin Majewski
Is Val Majewski related to Dutin Majewski?  Is Dustin a decent prospect at all (guess the A's are coming up relatively soon)?

by bootsy on Mar 13, 2005 5:07 PM EST   0 recs

A's were the first team done
Search for "Oakland Athletics Top 20 Prospects" in the search thing on the top right column. Make sure its under "Stories"

by ohad on Mar 14, 2005 7:40 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

draft history
when was the last time the orioles drafted and developed a position player that was an all star for them?  surely it wasn't cal ripken jr.?

by erudite on Mar 13, 2005 8:36 PM EST   0 recs

Mike Fontenot?
He can't crack this sorry group of 30?

by Casey on Mar 13, 2005 9:03 PM EST   0 recs

fontenot
Fontenot was traded to the Cubs in the Sosa deal.

by John Sickels on Mar 13, 2005 9:26 PM EST   0 recs

Spears and Haehnel
John- can you talk a little more about Nate Spears?

Was Haehnel's success last year another case of a polished college pitcher taking advantage of younger, less experienced Sally league hitters?

by Jared on Mar 13, 2005 10:53 PM EST   0 recs

Cant wait till June draft
I guess since the Birds system is so deep, they decided that they didnt need Wade Townsend. I wonder who they will lowball this year.

by DolemiteGK on Mar 14, 2005 12:25 AM EST   0 recs

Pitcher ratings
First of all John, thanks for all the hard work - this is a good list.

My question stems from two pitchers who were both college draftees in 2002.  They've been the same age at every level, and have been in the same league at every level except AA.  I'll present their stats in this order:

Level, GS, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, H/9.

Pitcher 1:
A-  15, 10.5, 1.7, 0.7, 8.4
A+  13, 7.2,  2.0, 0.8, 7.9
AA  13, 11.9, 1.7, 0.1, 6.9
AAA 11, 8.8,  3.7, 0.9, 9.1

Pitcher 2:
A-  19, 12.1, 1.8, 0.1, 5.3
A+  12, 9.9, 2.6, 0.6, 6.1
AA  5,  10.9, 2.3, 0.3, 5.1
AAA 13, 8.2, 3.1, 0.4, 8.8

Based on these stats, there isn't a huge difference between these guys.  If anything, pitcher 2 probably gets the edge.  

Of course, it's not that simple.  I left out one line for pitcher 2:

AAA 9, 7.4, 5.2, 1.8, 10.0

Those are the stats for John Maine (Pitcher 2)'s first 9 starts at AAA Ottawa.  It was certainly a pretty nasty rough patch, but as you can see above, he settled down nicely, and pitched as well as Dan Meyer (Pitcher 1) did to finish up the season in AAA.

Is it those 9 starts that makes Maine a B-, and Meyer an A-?  Or is it a combination of other factors (Lefty/Righty, Draft position, Scouting Reports)?

I haven't been able to find many scouting reports on either pitcher, but from your own "Down on the Farm" on those two, there doesn't seem to be a big difference in that department.

by dkdc on Mar 14, 2005 1:11 AM EST   0 recs

Those extra nine starts
Hurt Maine a little bit. But it's got to be scouting reports. All we can see is the stats. But him going to games, having scouting connections and such gives Meyer the edge. Meyers stuff is probably better.

by ohad on Mar 14, 2005 7:39 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Maine...
...I saw that Maine got hit hard yesterday in spring training and will be sent to AAA.  As a stathead I've been watching Maine for a couple years and was a little surprised at the AAA numbers last year.  He is still young and has a chance if he can get the kinks worked out this year.  From what I know he isn't a real hard thrower.

by alstl04 on Mar 14, 2005 2:09 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Meyer
both pitchers use above-average command of a fastball that hovers around 90, but i believe the fact that Meyer is left-handed and his secondary stuff is more advanced give him the edge...

by MPK on Mar 14, 2005 9:01 AM EST   0 recs

yep
Yes, this is the reason. Meyer has better stuff for a lefty vs. Maine's stuff for a RHP.

by John Sickels on Mar 14, 2005 9:26 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

thanks
Well that seals it.  The only reason I found the comparison interesting is because I thought the two pitchers scouted similarly - every scouting report I could find didn't show much difference, and BA ranked Maine 30 spots higher than Meyer last year.  I guess Meyer's secondary pitches really developed this year, while Maine's didn't.

I guess I'll just have to hope that the statheads are right about Maine - his top 10 PECOTA comps include Joel Pineiro, AJ Burnett, Juan Marichal, Bob Gibson, and Jack Morris.

by dkdc on Mar 15, 2005 8:28 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Surprised
A little surprised you didn't grade Brian Finch or Zach Dixon

by stwright on Mar 14, 2005 9:51 AM EST   0 recs

finch
Finch and Dixon both Grade C. You could slot either of them in the 14-20 range.

by John Sickels on Mar 14, 2005 9:52 AM EST   0 recs

Majewski
When Majewski had surgery on his torn labrum the doctors also found that he had a rotator cuff tear, which will keep him out for 2005. The Orioles were hoping his recovery from the torn labrum would only take half the year, but the rehab from the rotator cuff tear will take the whole year.

by stwright on Mar 14, 2005 9:55 AM EST   0 recs

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