Baltimore Orioles Top 20 Prospects

Nick Markakis and Val Majewski
- Nick Markakis, OF, B+
- Val Majewski, OF, B+
- Jeff Fiorentino, OF, B
- Hayden Penn, RHP, B
- Chris Ray, RHP, B
- John Maine, RHP, B-
- Tripper Johnson, 3B, C+
- Adam Loewen, LHP, C+
- Walter Young, 1B-DH, C+
- Jacobo Sequea, RHP, C+
- Eli Whiteside, C, C
- David Haehnel, LHP, C
- James Johnson, RHP, C
- Nate Spears, 2B, C
- Keith Reed, OF, C
- Rob McCrory, RHP, C
- Tony Neal, RHP, C
- Carlos Perez, LHP, C
- Jarod Rine, OF, C
- Freddy Deza, RHP, C
UPDATE: A reader points out that Majewski had surgery to repair a torn labrum last week and is expected to miss all of the 2005 season.
Hayden Penn and Chris Ray are both solid Grade B pitching prospects. We need to see how they do in Double-A, but both have a decent shot to develop into rotation starters, though I don't think either will be an anchor or ace. John Maine's stock dropped a bit last year, but I still like his chances long-term. Again, he won't be an ace. Adam Loewen has the highest ceiling of any of the pitchers, but hurt his labrum last summer and is now a big health questionmark. Jacobo Sequea has a chance to be an effective middle reliever.
Tripper Johnson has been on and off prospect lists. I've always liked him as a sleeper and he spiked his home run power last year, but will have to show his bat will hold up in Double-A. Walter Young fits into the Sam Horn/Calvin Pickering category: big, slow, lots of power, lots of strikeouts. These guys can be useful players: for all his weaknesses, Sam Horn's career OPS was 18 percent better than Major League average. Young could put up similar numbers.
Then you get into a big mass of Grade C guys. Eli Whiteside has a good glove but a questionable bat. He hit for power last year, but his batting average and OBP abilities remain shaky due to poor plate discipline. Keith Reed showed glimmers of finally putting his tools to use last year. . .in his third shot in Double-A. There are several guys who have live arms (Rob McCrory, Carlos Perez, Brian Finch) but have command problems and/or have not pitched yet at higher levels. Then you have guys who have pitched well (James Johnson, Zach Dixon, Luis Ramirez, Freddy Deza) but who have marginal stuff and may not hold up against better competition.
Overall, the Orioles have a lot of work to do rebuilding the system. People have been writing that for years. It is still true.
ANOTHER UPDATE: the original list I posted had Luke Hagerty, Rule 5 pick, on the list. That was a sloppy mistake on my part; he was traded by the Orioles to the Marlins after the Rule 5 draft. Sorry for the error.
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28 comments
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majewski
March 6: The Baltimore Sun reports that Val Majewski (OF) underwent successful surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. He will miss the entire season but could be able to play in winter ball.
by natsfan2005 on
Mar 13, 2005 1:08 PM EST
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ack
by John Sickels on
Mar 13, 2005 1:14 PM EST
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Walt Young
The O's are probably thinking he can be a legimate fulltime first baseman but I say not. Any thoughts, John?
by feast on
Mar 13, 2005 1:26 PM EST
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young
by John Sickels on
Mar 13, 2005 1:46 PM EST
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Young's splits
by WTM on
Mar 13, 2005 4:50 PM EST
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Brandon Fahey
by gk314 on
Mar 13, 2005 2:23 PM EST
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OF
Do Markasis and Majewski appear to be Nixon types? maybe 30 doubles, 15-20 HR's?
Any comparisons you had in mind?
by SharpeShooter on
Mar 13, 2005 2:24 PM EST
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nixon?
by John Sickels on
Mar 13, 2005 2:28 PM EST
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also...
by SharpeShooter on
Mar 13, 2005 2:29 PM EST
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Luke Hagerty
by the way, did the Orioles really trade Denny Baustista for Jason Grimsley? really?
by jrfelix on
Mar 13, 2005 4:35 PM EST
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hagerty
by John Sickels on
Mar 13, 2005 7:14 PM EST
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bautista
by John Sickels on
Mar 13, 2005 7:20 PM EST
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Dustin Majewski
by bootsy on
Mar 13, 2005 5:07 PM EST
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A's were the first team done
by ohad on
Mar 14, 2005 7:40 AM EST
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draft history
by erudite on
Mar 13, 2005 8:36 PM EST
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Mike Fontenot?
by Casey on
Mar 13, 2005 9:03 PM EST
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fontenot
by John Sickels on
Mar 13, 2005 9:26 PM EST
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Spears and Haehnel
Was Haehnel's success last year another case of a polished college pitcher taking advantage of younger, less experienced Sally league hitters?
by Jared on
Mar 13, 2005 10:53 PM EST
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Cant wait till June draft
by DolemiteGK on
Mar 14, 2005 12:25 AM EST
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Pitcher ratings
My question stems from two pitchers who were both college draftees in 2002. They've been the same age at every level, and have been in the same league at every level except AA. I'll present their stats in this order:
Level, GS, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, H/9.
Pitcher 1:
A- 15, 10.5, 1.7, 0.7, 8.4
A+ 13, 7.2, 2.0, 0.8, 7.9
AA 13, 11.9, 1.7, 0.1, 6.9
AAA 11, 8.8, 3.7, 0.9, 9.1
Pitcher 2:
A- 19, 12.1, 1.8, 0.1, 5.3
A+ 12, 9.9, 2.6, 0.6, 6.1
AA 5, 10.9, 2.3, 0.3, 5.1
AAA 13, 8.2, 3.1, 0.4, 8.8
Based on these stats, there isn't a huge difference between these guys. If anything, pitcher 2 probably gets the edge.
Of course, it's not that simple. I left out one line for pitcher 2:
AAA 9, 7.4, 5.2, 1.8, 10.0
Those are the stats for John Maine (Pitcher 2)'s first 9 starts at AAA Ottawa. It was certainly a pretty nasty rough patch, but as you can see above, he settled down nicely, and pitched as well as Dan Meyer (Pitcher 1) did to finish up the season in AAA.
Is it those 9 starts that makes Maine a B-, and Meyer an A-? Or is it a combination of other factors (Lefty/Righty, Draft position, Scouting Reports)?
I haven't been able to find many scouting reports on either pitcher, but from your own "Down on the Farm" on those two, there doesn't seem to be a big difference in that department.
by dkdc on
Mar 14, 2005 1:11 AM EST
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Those extra nine starts
by ohad on
Mar 14, 2005 7:39 AM EST
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Maine...
by alstl04 on
Mar 14, 2005 2:09 PM EST
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Meyer
by MPK on
Mar 14, 2005 9:01 AM EST
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yep
by John Sickels on
Mar 14, 2005 9:26 AM EST
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thanks
I guess I'll just have to hope that the statheads are right about Maine - his top 10 PECOTA comps include Joel Pineiro, AJ Burnett, Juan Marichal, Bob Gibson, and Jack Morris.
by dkdc on
Mar 15, 2005 8:28 AM EST
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Surprised
by stwright on
Mar 14, 2005 9:51 AM EST
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finch
by John Sickels on
Mar 14, 2005 9:52 AM EST
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Majewski
by stwright on
Mar 14, 2005 9:55 AM EST
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