Cleveland Indians Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Feb 26, 2005 8:01 AM EST in News Comment 27 comments

Adam Miller, RHP, A
Grady Sizemore, OF, B+
Michael Aubrey, 1B, B+
Franklin Gutierrez, OF, B+
Brad Snyder, OF, B+
Ryan Garko, C-1B, B+
Fernando Cabrera, RHP, B
Jeremy Sowers, LHP, B
Francisco Cruceta, RHP, B-
Nick Pesco, RHP, B-
Justin Hoyman, RHP, B-
Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, B-
Fausto Carmona, RHP, C+
Brandon Pinckney, SS, C+
Ryan Goleski, OF, C+
Scott Lewis, LHP, C+
Matt Whitney, 3B, C+
Jake Dittler, RHP, C+
Tony Sipp, LHP, C+
Mike Butia, OF, C+

The Indians have excellent depth. You can make a case for several players not in the Top 20 that could deserve to be there. . .Dan Denham, Jake Dittler, Andrew Brown, and Chuck Lofgren all have a chance to be very good pitchers if they can refine their command to go with their raw stuff. I'm less optimistic about Jeremy Guthrie. He is quite the enigma. He has a good arm, but the results have just not been there, at least in Triple-A, where he has been hammered. I think a conversion to relief could help him, but as far as I know that has not been considered.

On the position player side, catcher Javi Herrera, outfielder Argenis Reyes, third baseman Chris Gimenez, outfielder Juan Valdez, second baseman Jake Gautreau (recently acquired from the Padres), outfielder Jason Cooper, and outfielder Ben Francisco are all possible contributors at some point. There are a host of other Grade C candidates who could also be mentioned. This is a deep system with a blend of both stathead favorites and raw tools players.

Of the guys in my Top 20, most of the grades shouldn't be particularly controversial. An exception is third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, who doesn't impress scouts but who has hit .309/.374/.498 in 184 career games. A University of Nevada product, he has an excellent work ethic and has hit the hell out of the ball so far. Grade B- may be too aggressive; he wasn't young for the South Atlantic League last year at 22, and you can make a good case that he should be several slots lower than on the list until he proves himself in Double-A. For now, I will leave him where he is, with the acknowledgement that it is a risky pick.

Another grade of interest is pitcher Fausto Carmona. He has a great arm, but I can't get around him giving up 114 hits in 87 innings in Double-A.

I no longer count Brandon Phillips and Jhonny Peralta as "prospects" given the amount of playing time they received in 2003. I think both are capable of helping in 2005, with Peralta probably more likely to do well.

I'm not going to be around today, but will be back for Sunday. Chat away, but play nicely.

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Comments

Kazmir or Miller?

If you could only pick between Adam Miller and Scott Kazmir, who would you rather have?

by Goodfella on Feb 26, 2005 8:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Indians prospects

Thanks for the info. Only worry I have is too much depth to manage with a 40 man roster. Hopefully, Shapiro will package some to get the right complimentary piece this Summer.

by LargeBill on Feb 26, 2005 8:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

wow

kudos on giving somebody an A. If any pitcher deserved an A, it was Adam Miller.

I also did not think Sizemore was considered a prospect. If he is, I have not heard his name mentioned in the top-100 lists from bloggers, other sites, or Baseball America's top ten for each team.

by mrmetaa on Feb 26, 2005 8:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Gutierrez

I always thought Gutierrez was a bit overrated. Wouldn't you like to see him improve his plate discipline? I think MLB pitchers can eat him until he learns to lay off balls up in the zone and sliders breaking off the outer corner. Not his frame, but his hitting insticts remind me of Raul Mondesi.

Sickels, this site rules!!!

by count sutton on Feb 26, 2005 10:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Can somebody

Update the grading here? I forgot how to do the weighted system.

by ohad on Feb 26, 2005 10:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Weight

Ignoring for the moment which is more valuable, a simple weighting would be to add the number 1 prospect's score 20 times, the number 2 prospect 19 times, and so on until #20 and then divide by 220.

by Doug on Feb 26, 2005 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

210

I think thats 210 you divide by.

by rdiersin on Feb 26, 2005 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh

I don't have the energy to do that right now. As a matter of fact, i don't have energy for the regular one either.

by ohad on Feb 26, 2005 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

spreasheet

You can just make a spreadsheet, with a bunch of if's, that's what I did.

by rdiersin on Feb 26, 2005 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

updated:

I updated the "Top 20 List Summary - Team GPA's" diary.

by natsfan2005 on Feb 26, 2005 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey John,

Why did you rank Jeremy Reed an A- and Sizemore just a B+? Or in other words why would you take Jeremy Reed over Sizemore? Sizemore is a year younger, they're at the same stage or level, and their OBP and SLG at AAA were nearly the same. Is it the fact that Reed has a better strikeout to walk rate and that Sizemore's arm isn't so strong?

by ultxmxpx on Feb 26, 2005 12:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jason Cooper

I assume then that you consider Cooper a C? His omission from the book surprised me.

by Der Komminsksar on Feb 26, 2005 2:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

cooper

He should have been in. Sort of like J.D. Closser of the Rockies. . .I had him on my "to write about" list but for some reason it didn't get done. My fault.

by John Sickels on Feb 27, 2005 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rafael Perez?

John,

No love for Rafael Perez? It seems like he should've made your top 20.. he has put up decent #'s last year.

by jprotzel on Feb 26, 2005 9:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Perez...

posted a 4.85 ERA as a 22-YO last year in low-A ball, with 99 Ks and 47 BBs in 115 innings. That doesn't look like a hot prospect to me.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org

by MikeE on Feb 26, 2005 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bruddah Choy Foo

John,

How do you rate Rodney "Bruddah" Choy Foo? I don't really know a darned thing about him, but I just have to root for a guy with that great of a name.

Say the word and I will start a campaign to get him to go back to using "Bruddah," as he has apparently dropped it once he got to the minors.

Hang loose!

by achiappanza on Feb 27, 2005 4:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Phillips and Peralta

John,

Sure Phillips and Peralta no longer count as prospects given the amount of playing time they received in 2003. So i can understand why they weren't in the book.

But they didn't succeed in their major league trials and spent nearly all of 2004 in AAA. Since this is "minorleagueball.com" afterall, can you humor some of you blog readers and give these two a grade and a couple short paragraphs (even if its just an update to what you've wrote about them in the past)?

In reality, for many readers of this site, its more useful for us to get a handle on these guys than a low A-baller like Kevin Kouzmanoff.

by natsfan2005 on Feb 27, 2005 12:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

that's fair

That's fair. I'll think about Phillips and Peralta and post something.

by John Sickels on Feb 27, 2005 12:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kouz

Kouzmanoff may have been in A ball last year, but please dont call him a UNLV product. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe he is a U of Nevada (Reno) Wolfpack alum, along with RBI stud Lyle Overbay.

love the new site, what with all the battleships and brooke burke pics

by jrose643 on Feb 27, 2005 1:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

kouz

Fixed it. You're right he is from U of Nevada.

by John Sickels on Feb 27, 2005 2:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Peralta and Phillips

Peralta is one of the best pure hitters in the minor leagues last year.

His 181 hits were one of the few best seasons in the last 40 years. (He had 55 multi-hit games!)

His range and body type are better suited for 2B or 3B. But he could stick at SS.

As far as Brandon Phillips goes, the world is split on him. Some say he's the next Derek Jeter while others say he has the same problem with his swing that Alex Escobar had. Consequently, he will never hit Major League pitching.

Conclusion: Peralta is a consistent hit machine. Phillips is a total and complete wild card who has not proven anything at the major league level. Also, Peralta is 1 year younger.

by Goodfella on Feb 27, 2005 6:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: pure

When I think "pure hitter" I think Jeremy Reed not a guy nearly 1/4 of hit at bats. Peralta had 126K last year. Not something that would bother me in a potential 30-40 homer guy but not the most encouraging thing to see from a middle infielder.

Looking at Peralta's 2002 stats in AA Akron they seem to mirror his 2004 AAA numbers in many ways other than 40 points of batting average. I'm not sure how much of the progress he made is real and how much is just a natural fluctuation in batting average.

Neither Phillips or Peralta has proven anything at the MLB level. It isnt just Phillips who looked lost in his 2003 audition.

All that said, I think Peralta is the better bet to get playing time in 2005. I wonder what Sickel's new "2005 Projection JSPS-2" says for these guys?

by natsfan2005 on Feb 27, 2005 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Peralta - "pure hitter"

" ... infielder Jhonny Peralta went 3-for-5 with three RBIs, and collected his 37th double and 13th home run of the season. "He's the best pure hitter I've seen this year," manager Marty Brown said. "(Baseball America)

by Goodfella on Feb 28, 2005 10:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: your pure hitter quote

Marty Brown is Peralta's manager. My mom says I'm great too. :)

I don't want to argue about semantics here b/c we won't agree anyway. You are looking at results and I'm looking at the components. I just don't throw around words like "best" freely.

by natsfan2005 on Feb 28, 2005 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Pure Hitter

I agree Peralta strikes out a lot. But, he had 55 multi-hit games. Very very consistent. That's what I was thinking about when I said "pure". He hit .330 something from the beginning to the end of the season.

by Goodfella on Feb 28, 2005 12:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs