Young Pitcher Symposium: Zack Greinke

by John Sickels on Feb 25, 2005 8:39 PM EST in News Comment 30 comments

Photo from ZackGreinke.net

Most Similar Pitchers to Zack Greinke Through Age 20

Denny McLain (979)
Joe Coleman (976)
Waite Hoyt (975)
Dave Moorhead (974)
Dick Ellsworth (971)
Bob Friend (970)
Ed Stein (967)
Jack Taylor (967)
Rudy May (967)
Dave Boswell (967)

Other Comparables

Bret Saberhagen
Bert Blyleven
Bullet Joe Bush
Rick Wise
Wally Bunker
Bob Moose

A mixed but interesting list, full of good pitchers but some weird names as well. Greinke's command is much better than the command of almost every pitcher on this list at the same age. Stein and Taylor were 19th century guys who were not truly comparable once differences in era are taken into account.

Greinke draws a lot of comparisons to Greg Maddux and Catfish Hunter, since he is a strike-thrower with major league success at a young age. Neither Maddux nor Hunter shows up on the comp list because Greinke is actually significantly BETTER than they were at the same age. At age 20 last year, Greinke posted an ERA+ of 112 in the Majors. Maddux, in contrast, posted a poor ERA+ of 77 at age 20. Hunter was at ERA+ 82 at age 19 and ERA+ of 85 at age 20.

If you have seen Greinke pitch, it is obvious that he is special. It's one thing to say he has a 90-94 MPH fastball. It's another thing entirely when you see how he can vary the speed and movement on the pitch, how he mixes it with his slider and curveball, how he uses his changeup at any point in the count, how he alters his delivery at various times without breaking down his basic mechanics or hurting himself, how he quick-pitches veteran hitters without fear, how he can throw a 60 MPH curve with the exact-same delivery and release point he uses with his 94 MPH fastball.

Given his pitch-efficiency, his athleticism, and the lack of mileage on his arm, he has a better chance to stay healthy than most young pitchers. The only flaw in his game right now is an excess home run rate.

I've been a baseball fan since 1978, and I have never seen a 20-year-old pitcher with the kind of command that Zack Greinke has, not combined with stuff of his quality. Expectations for him are unavoidably high. All baseball fans should root for Zack Greinke to stay healthy.

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First post!

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 25, 2005 9:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Home Run Rate

I was wondering what a high home run rate in a young pitcher like Greinke means for the future. Should we look at his "stuff" and his performance relative to his age and conclude that the HR rate will drop, or should we conclude that his ERA is likely to rise and he's unlikely to dominate hitters?

by okbluejays on Feb 25, 2005 9:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Also

Why is the home run rate high? Without looking into this further, my first guess would be that he either has a dead straight fastball that gets killed, he has poor control within the strike-zone, or he has a secondary pitch (like a curve) that gets away from him from time to time. Anybody have an answer?

by okbluejays on Feb 25, 2005 10:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

HR Rate

I don't know but I would think that some hitters guess curve off of him and rolls one up.

by Ienpw on Feb 25, 2005 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Greinke's fastball

I wouldn't say that it's "dead-straight" but that's what I believe has caused the high home run rate.

by Russ Oates on Feb 25, 2005 10:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually...

I watched him a lot last year as a suffering Royals fan and most of his homeruns were given up when he was cruising along and playing with hitters. Every now and then he gets too cute and serves up an 86 mph fastball and someone lauches it. He is fun to watch - I have never seen a pitcher who is as unflappable as he is.

by tupelodylan on Feb 26, 2005 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

homerun rate

Or it could be that he is not afraid to challenge hitters.

by WonderfulWhopper on Feb 25, 2005 10:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Changeup

I saw him pitch against my beloved A's last year (it was AN day, so a lot of other people around here saw him too) and he used that changeup to make the A's hitters look foolish. It was like a video game pitch that day. He's good.

Go A's

by kent on Feb 26, 2005 12:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

good news

he is about the only good news that Royals fans have these days. His ERA was good, but, I believe, his peripheral numbers were even better (I think he had a really bad start against Baltimore that killed his ERA--) FWIW-Bill James isn't that high on him, it will be interesting to see how he develops vs. other prospects with more "stuff"

by nwroyal on Feb 26, 2005 1:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bill James?

nwroyal, where did you see that exactly, about the guru not liking Greinke? Thanks.

by Flynn Blake on Feb 26, 2005 3:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

His peripherals.

This is actually incorrect. His peripherals were much much worse than his ERA.

His FIP(essentially DIPS) was 4.94 last year, a full run higher than his ERA.

He was very very lucky on BABIP last year.

I suspect that that's why James isn't that high on him.

I'm with James. Greinke might perhaps be the single most overrated prospect in baseball.

What I see is a guy with great walk numbers, mediocre strikeout numbers, and horrible home run numbers. And that was in a pitcher's park last year, as Kauffman played last year at a 95 park factor after they moved the fences out.

The hype on Greinke is based on how "poised" he is, the fact that he's 20, and that he was lucky on balls in play.

Now, the fact that he's 20 is a big deal indeed, as it means he's got lots of room left to grow.

But he needs to improve on last year's performance by a bunch to be as good as people seem to believe he already is.

He's a very interesting pitcher, but with his strikeout numbers, basically everything else about him needs to be top notch, and right now, with those home run rates, that's just not the case.

The hope for him is:

His strikeout numbers improve in a hurry. This probably will not happen, as strikeout numbers tend to be one of the things that translate from the minor leagues very quickly. His minor league numbers do not indicate that he's ever going to be missing a ton of bats.
His home run numbers were just a fluke last year. The year to year correlation in home runs allowed is pretty low. The difference between a good home run allowed rate, and a bad one is a few balls that the wind does or doesn't catch.

I'm guessing that #2 is in fact true, and he's not really that gopher prone. In 180 minor league innings he allowed only 12. Which innings are more representative? I don't know, but for his sake, it had better be the minor league ones, because if not, he could be out of baseball a lot sooner than people expect.

Of all the pitchers being done on this site over the week, Greinke is the one I'm least hopefull about. Although other than Bonderman, he's the one I'm most interested in from a curiosity standpoint.

(I'm really not as negative on Greinke as I may sound above there, I'm perhaps exaggerating the risks a bit here, because so many scouts and performance analysts seem to be drooling over Greinke, which bothers me. His stuff might be there, but so far, the performance has not been.)

by bibigon on Feb 26, 2005 6:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he's really impressive

so far.

but you know...so far is only...so far.

I tend to think James is right on this one...enjoy him while you can. He needs to add some velocity to really have the career we think he ought to have at this point.

And he might.

Or he might not. He could get hurt, too.

I'm pulling for him...but I'm not sold, yet.

by pure bull on Feb 26, 2005 3:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

james comment

i also saw the bill james comment. he said something like greinke probably pitching as well now as he ever will - meaning that there is no upside to project. this is it. greinke already has control so you cannot project it to get better. i don't know if that is true and i would love to hear what John (or anyone else) thinks about that.

by JapanDan on Feb 26, 2005 4:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

bill

I think Bill is wrong about Greinke. He can hit 95 MPH whenever he wants...he just doesn't choose to go all-out with every pitch, preferring to alter his velocity up and down. In this sense he is very different than most pitchers today, especially young pitchers, who are usually trying to bust the radar on every pitch.

by John Sickels on Feb 26, 2005 8:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Williams

That's very similar to Jerome Williams who was a flame thrower at 19, but made a conscious change somewhere around 21 to stop throwing so hard and change speeds on his fastball. K numbers have been down ever since and HRs up. He has a great feel for pitching and probably a great future, but the danger of that approach is you ultimately lose the upper register of your FB if you stop using it.

by Roger on Feb 27, 2005 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Greinke

I saw Greinke pitch twice last year in KC and he as good as advertised. He was a little overconfident when first coming up and seemed to settle in more later in the season. Greinke has multiple varitations with every pitch he throws. He does without changing his arm slot, release point, or arm speed. The biggest thing with Greinke is that he seems rather cocky and is not immune to actually making up new pitches in the middle of an inning and trying them out.

His peripherals may suggest that he did not pitch aswell as his ERA would indicate, but he is 20 ptitching in the bigs. Next season he will be great. I think he has more upside than the other pitchers we have discussed (Beckett, Harden, Peavy) and he could potentially dominate the next 10 years like Maddux dominated the 90s.

Sickels, this site rules!!!

by count sutton on Feb 26, 2005 10:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Beckett, Harden, Peavy

You think he has more upside those three?

Sure it's possible he could turn into Maddux, but by that rationale, any of those three could turn in Clemens.

by bibigon on Feb 26, 2005 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Greinke

I think it will be a couple of years before we see the real Greinke. He was learning on the job last year and has a playful nature that gets him in trouble sometimes. But he was 20 years old. Give him 2 years and you'll see Maddux redux.

by tupelodylan on Feb 26, 2005 11:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Watch him pitch

Anyone who has seen him pitch live knows he can be special. The Maddux comps are legit. Talent wise, he is probably a notch below Beckett, but without the injury history.

I would place Greinke above Peavy and Harden, and I think both those guys are really talented. If Beckett stays healthy (which he has to show me first) he CAN be the best of the bunch.

by TCapone30 on Feb 26, 2005 1:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I've come to think

That it's like a lottery. God will pick names out of a hat to see who is the best. Realistically: Harden, Beckett, Peavy, Greinke could all be better than the others. (Harden is capable of being better than beckett, peavy and greinke. Beckett is capable of being better then Peavy Harden and Greinke etc...). They are all just that good.

by ohad on Feb 26, 2005 1:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This is what Zach has said

From mlb.com:

Greinke has been fretting about his perceived lack of control despite walking just 26 in 145 innings. He's been working on a more consistent delivery and studying videotapes of himself.

"I was getting sick to my stomach just watching those garbage pitches," he said before the luncheon.

He threw too many strikes belt-high instead of at the knees, he decided, and there were too many pitches high over the zone.

I also seem to remember him saying that he will be concentrating on keeping the ball lower in the zone this year (can't find that exact quote). That seems obvious, but he moves the ball around so much, that he seemed to invariably misplace too many in the fat zone. If he does concentrate his pitches more in the lower part of the zone, as opposed to moving the ball around everywhere, he may be well served.

I watched him a bunch last year on the extra innings mlb package and his change of speed and location is something that few pitchers have. I really don't think there are ten pitchers in the majors that have better change of speed and location. We still need to see if that translates to success or if its just a neat trick.

Again, he's 21(!), studying videtapes, understading his issues and trying to make changes already. Thats outstanding.

I don't understand the "strikeout problem" that he has. In the minors, at ages 19 & 20, his k rate was 7.2 per 9 innings.
Last year it was 6.2 in the major leagues. At 20, is that something to really be worried about? It seems a little crazy to me. Over the next four years, I think its completely conceivable for him to just improve a little each year and then be at a 7.5 or 8 per 9 inning rate. He's special.

Harden will be 23 this year, Zambrano 24, Peavy 24, Beckett 25 and Greinke 21. Yes, the one difference is that we haven't seen dominance from Greinke like the others. We've also never seen any hint of health issues - none. I think we'll see Zach pass them all.

by jlogandjr on Feb 26, 2005 4:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The strikeout problem.

The reason the strikeouts are a problem is that, generally, a pitchers's strikeout rate starts nearly as high as it will ever be.

While pitchers often improve their control, and stop allowing as many home runs, few and far between are the pitchers who start out with mediocre K numbers, and then improve them dramatically.

It just doesn't happen very often. You can't count on Greinke to do that, no matter how talented you think he is.

In many ways, a pitcher's strikeout rate is a clock on how long they have left in baseball. As long as a pitcher can keep striking out batters, they'll be able to keep pitching. K rate declines from an early age, and rarely takes a sustained uptick.

I wouldn't be surpised to see him improve the K rate a bit, but eveb if he does, it is unlikely to ever reach the levels where he can allow that many home runs and still be effective.

He has a fundamental problem here, that he's starting with such a low strikeout rate, and such a high home run rate.

Yes, he could be Greg Maddux, but Maddux is a once in a generation talent. Counting on Greinke to be Maddux seems to be very foolhardy. It could happen, but its far more likely not to.

by bibigon on Feb 26, 2005 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK

I'll say this about Greinke, most of his HRs really are given up when he's trying to be cute with his fastball or curveball.

One thing I made note of though, was that his K rate went up the more he pitched, and his BB rate went down.

First half: 5.93 K/9 (1.92 BB/9)
Seconf half: 6.27 K/9 (1.41 BB/9)

Those are good signs.

Of course his HR rate stayed ugly, and it actually looks uglier (I didn't calculate it though).

I would say that HR rate is kind of flukish though. I expect a big improvement in that next year.

His K rate WAS pretty close to league avergae, and the fact that it rose the more he pitched makes me feel a little better about his future, especially seeing as he is young and has almost to much room to grow.

I really like Greinke though. If this was almost anyone else, I'd probalby be very negative, as a below average K rate, and a horrible HR/9 is just not something I like to see in a prospect, but I just think he's different.

by SenorGato88 on Feb 26, 2005 7:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Royals

"'ll say this about Greinke, most of his HRs really are given up when he's trying to be cute with his fastball or curveball."

So you think it's more because of the Royals' inadequate gameplan or an inadequate teaching of pitching strategies? I mean, the Royals don't have a great track record of developing good pitchers. I wonder if Greinke has the talent and ability but is being hampered by a bad pitching development program.

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 26, 2005 8:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Royals pitchers

Greinke shook off his catcher plenty last year - the Royals do let him do his own thing somewhat. You may perceive that as crazy given his age but he's very intelligent. You cant compare him to other Royals pitchers really because: 1 - None of the others had his ability and 2 - the best pitchers the Royals have developed in the past decade (R.Hernandez, Rosado, etc.) have gotten injured.

by tupelodylan on Feb 26, 2005 9:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Splits

Those splits are pretty meaningless with the kind of sample we're dealing with here.

The difference between a 5.93K/9 and a 6.27K/9 is exactly one strikeout more in the first half.

I don't know what it is about this guy that makes it so everyone, including the normally cautious sabermetric community, so gaga about this guy. I've watched him pitch, and he's seemed like a nice pitcher to have around, but he didn't have electric stuff, and he wasn't missing a lot of bats as a result. When that many guys are getting good wood on the ball against you, you're going to allow some home runs.

It really does take a once in a generation talent like Maddux to dominate with the pitching repetoir e that Greinke is bringing to the mound.

Right now however, the most likely future for Greinke that I see is much less optimistic.

by bibigon on Feb 26, 2005 9:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Frankly, I'll Take It

Greinke is already good. He's the Royals best pitcher at age 21, and I think he's on his way to a long and productive career, even if he doesn't turn out be great.

The Royals haven't developed ANY decent pitchers since Kevin Appier in the early 90s, so from a fan's perspective, I'll take it.

by phatcat43 on Feb 28, 2005 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Low K Rate

I think it is interesting that the pitcher's he is most often compared to is Greg Maddux. His low K rate is scary, and it is true that this rarely goes up, but look at Maddux:
Maddux K/9 through age 24(3 full seasons): 5.28
Maddux for career, including those first 3 seasons: 6.27

Maddux did indeed have a noticeable upswing in his K rate.

Of course I am posting this so late that it may never get read, but I thought it was interesting at least.

My off the cuff, completely unsubstantiated projection for his career is that he is middling-good for his first 5 years, and everyone calls him a bust. In his 6th year (just in time for FA) he busts out and has a Maddux circa 92-95 type of year, gets a huge contract from someone like the Red Sox, and ends up with Whitey Fords career(with a better walk rate obviously).

by JPMouton on Feb 28, 2005 8:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Grienke's 6th year

<<<"In his 6th year (just in time for FA) he busts out and has a Maddux circa 92-95 type of year, gets a huge contract from someone like the Red Sox">>>

And Scott Boras will be his agent.

by natsfan2005 on Feb 28, 2005 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's Trade

I will tell you what, naysayers, I will offer you Greinke even-up for the third best prospect (regardless of position) in your team's farm system (includes all players with ML experience who are still qualified for the RoY award). What say you?