Anaheim Angels Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2005 1:27 PM EST in News

Casey Kotchman (photo courtesy of Futureangels.com)

Casey Kotchman, 1B, A-
Dallas McPherson, 3B, A-
Erick Aybar, SS, A-
Kendry Morales, OF-1B, B+
Howie Kendrick, 2B, B+
Jeff Mathis, C, B
Steve Shell, RHP, B
Ervin Santana, RHP, B
Alberto Callaspo, 2B-SS, B
Brandon Wood, SS, B-
Dustin Moseley, RHP, B-
Sean Rodriguez, SS, B-
Kevin Jepsen, RHP, B-
Mark Trumbo, 3B, B-
Mike Napoli, C, C+
Angel Moreno, RHP, C+
Bob Zimmerman, RHP, C+
Maicer Izturis, SS, C+
Warner Madrigal, OF, C+
Baltazar Lopez, 1B, C+

This is a very strong farm system. The Angels are notable for having a mixture of tools players mixed in with some stathead-favorite type guys. Even some of the Grade C guys that don't make the list, like Joe Saunders, Nick Touchstone, Andrew Toussaint, Reggie Willits, and Jake Woods are decent prospects who would appear on a Top 20 list for teams with less depth. I'm not including unsigned Jered Weaver on this version of the list. If I did, he'd be Grade B+ and somewhere in the Top 6.

Cuban defector Kendry Morales is a big wild card at this point. Based on his scouting reports, I'm giving him a Grade B+, treating him like I'd treat a highly-regarded college first-round pick who signed too late to play pro ball last summer.

Howie Kendrick at Grade B+ may seem like a stretch to some people, but I was extremely impressed with his bat last year at Cedar Rapids. I think he is one of the most underrated prospects in the game.

Bobby "Nuke LaLoosh" Jenks is still around but at this point I think the odds are against him ever living up to his considerable potential. 2005 draft pick Nick Adenhart, if he overcomes Tommy John surgery successfully, could end up near the top of the list someday.
Overall, this is an organization with impressive depth, well-positioned to remain competitive for some time to come.

UPDATE: Bobby Jenks was placed on waivers and claimed by the White Sox on December 17th. Sorry, missed that one.

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McPherson

Is there concern regarding McPherson's K rate making it difficult to adjust to MLB pitching?

Sickels, this site rules!!!

by count sutton on Feb 24, 2005 1:51 PM EST reply actions

Erick Aybar

I think this upcoming season, it could be really interesting to see how Aybar does. He put up amazing numbers last year, but that was also the Calfornia league, which is known to greatly favor hitters, if my memory serves me correctly.

51 stolen bases, and caught 36 times....now thats a stat. If he improves to a much more reasonable ratio, should we really expect 60-70 steals out of this guy? Maybe a Jaun Pierre-type player in the infield, with a tad more power?

Also, does anyone know when the Angels expect him to become an everday player? I know this might be a little premature, but they have Cabrera at SS the next 4 years, and I've heard that Callaspo could challenge Aybar at 2nd, if one of them doesn't change positions....It looks like John isn't worried too much about Callaspo taking anything away from Aybar, looking at the grades he has given out, but the competition could still be interesting to watch.....

by SpartanValor on Feb 24, 2005 1:57 PM EST reply actions

erick aybar

i agree. he's way overrated. it'll be interesting to see how he does in AA this year.

by Bobo2 on Feb 24, 2005 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

aybar

I love Aybar....I agree he won't steal bases like that at higher levels unless he improves his percentage success rate, but from having seen him in the Midwest League in '03, I don't think his bat is just a Cal League illusion.

by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2005 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

projections

what type of numbers do you expect aybar to put up in the majors?

by Bobo2 on Feb 24, 2005 2:12 PM EST up reply actions

aybar

We'll have a better idea when we see him in Double-A. Right now I'd guess he's a .280+ hitter, but whether that's .280 with 3 homers and a .320 OBP, or .280 with 12 homers and a .360 OBP, remains to be seen.

by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2005 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

Aybar=A-?

Given the above post, neither projection sounds like what I think of an A- even in the middle infield. Unless of course he's Ozzie Smith in the field. How is his defense?

by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on Feb 24, 2005 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

defense

He's only 21, so he has lots of time to develop, which is part of the reason I am so optimistic about him. His defense is very good and will get better. His range, hands, and arm all rate as above-average. He just needs more experience to cut down on errors...he made 34 last year.

by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2005 2:22 PM EST up reply actions

rollins

a good ceiling projection?

by Bobo2 on Feb 24, 2005 3:23 PM EST up reply actions

Jenks

Wasn't he released and signed by the White Sox? Not that I disagree about him amounting to anything.

Am I the only one profoundly worried about McPherson's strikeouts and defense? It seems like most major league 3B played SS at least until AA. [Chavez, Glaus, C. Jones come to mind]

by irwin @ Minor League Ball on Feb 24, 2005 2:03 PM EST reply actions

Shortstops?

My Baseball Register doesn't show Eric Chavez as a third baseman at all in the minors. As I recall, he was a high school All America as a third baseman. Off the top of my head, Scott Rolen and Adrian Beltre come to mind as third basemen that didn't play shortstop either. I'm sure there are many who never played shortstop. It simply takes a different type of quickness to play third.

by socalcardfan on Feb 24, 2005 2:48 PM EST up reply actions

The A's

Drafted him as a SS from a prep high school in southern california.

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 24, 2005 3:39 PM EST up reply actions

Baseball America '97

According to my 1997 Baseball America almanac, the A's first round draft pick was Eric Chavez, 3b, Mount Carmel HS, San Diego. There is also a paragraph about him and teammate Eric Munson, in which he is referred to as "third baseman Eric Chavez." Interestingly, Munso was a catcher at the time

by socalcardfan on Feb 24, 2005 4:07 PM EST up reply actions

The draft in the comment above was June 1996

I've also included a link to The Basebasll Cube that confirms his position as 3b.

http://thebaseballcube.com/draft/draft.asp?Y=1996&P=June-Reg

by socalcardfan on Feb 24, 2005 4:14 PM EST up reply actions

Dude

They do this because that's what their position is now. That same link lists Kotsay as an OF, yet he was also a relief pitcher in college.

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 24, 2005 4:20 PM EST up reply actions

Chavez

I'm not so sure about your reasoning there. Phil Nevin is shown as a third baseman and Chipper Jones is shown as a shortstop on the same site. Kotsay was drafted as an outfielder and the Marlins had little interest in him as a pitcher.

I did note your links to Chavez' high school days at shortstop. Thanks for sharing them. I will stand by my original statement, though, that he didn't play shortstop in the minors and he was drafted as a third baseman. According to the baseball cube, he's played a total of six innings as a shortstop since signing.

by socalcardfan on Feb 24, 2005 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

For Grins

Trevor Hoffman was a SS in College too.

http://thebaseballcube.com/draft/draft.asp?Y=1989&P=June-Reg&R=11&ID=863

by jmcclain19 on Feb 25, 2005 3:08 PM EST up reply actions

Chavez

Is my favorite player. I know this. THere is a misconception because they converted him before he ever played his first game. Here's some reference:

http://apse.dallasnews.com/contest1999/writing/over250.sdut1.html "Chavez, a 6-foot, 190-pound shortstop, and Munson, a 6-3, 210-pound catcher, were among just 10 players listed on USA Today's national high school baseball team. Scouts from every major league team had visited Mt. Carmel High School to scrutinize their strengths and weaknesses"

"1996: Finally we reach a year when the A's hit the proverbial nail on the head, selecting prep shortstop Eric Chavez out of Mt. Carmel High School in San Diego. Chavez was converted to the hot corner shortly thereafter and to date has won four consecutive gold gloves as one of the best third basemen in all of baseball." This is from: http://athletics.scout.com/2/346232.html

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 24, 2005 4:18 PM EST up reply actions

mcpherson

McPherson will be a subject of a larger post later this spring. I agree, the strikeouts are a concern.

by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2005 2:04 PM EST reply actions

Mcpherson's strikeouts

I don't think it's his strikeouts that will hinder him in the bigs, but his reduction in walk level. he's kept a fairly static batting average and slugging percentage throughout his minor league career, but his OBP runs the gamut from .370 to .426, as his walk rate has gone from good (78 BB in 500AB in A-ball) to medicore (23 BB in 259 AB in AAA).

that said, the dude socked 90 extra base hits last year in barely more than 500 AB's. His XBH% was .55. you just can't ignore that kind of power.

he may have been too old for the league, but he was only being held back because of glaus. he was more than ready for the bigs by age 23.

And I guess I just don't see the fuss with striking out like some people do. It's either one of my character flaws, or I'm progressive. You decide. Would people feel better if his strikeouts were changed to weak flyouts to left field, and he was still slugging .680?

by AwfulWaffle on Feb 24, 2005 2:33 PM EST reply actions

Re: McPherson's plate discipline

With a XBH% was .55 (.670slg) and a .300+ avg you can't argue he wasn't getting a good pitch to hit. As long as the 23 BB in 259 AB (which isn't horrific to me) in AAA wasn't mostly IBBs I don't think its a this enormous red flag.

by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on Feb 24, 2005 2:42 PM EST up reply actions

McPherson's Plate Discipline

4 of the walks were intentional.

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Feb 24, 2005 2:44 PM EST up reply actions

Re: 19 unintentional BB in 259AB

You can say 19 unintentional BB in 259AB isn't good. I won't disagree. But really his production did show he was getting good pitches to hit. Dallas had 53BB vs 364 abs in AA so he has the ability to draw walks.

I wouldn't doom him to Branyan status yet. Thats a crazy reactionary leap to be making already. It is not nearly out of the realm of possibility that he can adjust and once again make walks a greater part of his arsenal.

But, that said, other than Glaus, the LAA Angels haven't had the reputation for drawing walks. I hope Mickey Hatcher isn't the batting coach anymore.

by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on Feb 24, 2005 3:17 PM EST up reply actions

Strikeouts

I think the problem is that the list of players who struck out as much as McPherson has this past year and gone on to be successful big leaguers is either very short or non existant. Then again, most of those guys probably didn't destroy minor league pitching as McPherson did when he DID make contact. That said, I think he's the most overrated prospect in the game and see him as Dean Palmer II.

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Feb 24, 2005 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

Weak flyouts

No, that would be bad. But if he changed some of those K's, not all of them would be weak flyouts. Some would mvoe the runner over, some would enable a runner to tag up....

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 24, 2005 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

Weak Flyouts

I for one don't care what the strikeouts become, a strikeout is the same "badness" as any other out to me. My concern is more that I don't see how someone who strikes out as much as he does will be able to successfully handly big league pitching because when I look at his numbers, since I haven't seen him play, what immediately pops into my mind is:

Mistake hitter
Great hitters leagues
Great hitters home park(s)
Not young for leagues

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Feb 24, 2005 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

K's

Strikeouts don't matter much until crucial points in a game with less than 2 outs. That's when they really kill teams -- when the game is close and the hitter not only makes an out, but also fails to advance the runner.

by AaronMullen on Feb 24, 2005 7:59 PM EST up reply actions

Re: McPherson's plate discipline

19 unintentional walks in 259 AB's is not good at all, and that's definitely an area in which he needs to improve. But it's also a small sample size.

If you're an Angels fan, you have to hope that Scioscia can look past the fact that McPherson will may set the MLB record for strikeouts in a full season, because he's also going to put up some good power numbers.

He's going to be sort of a Jim Thome light, because he doesn't walk yet. If you shave about 10% off of Thome's career numbers, I think that's what Mcpherson will do in the bigs.

that puts him at roughly a .260/.360/.510.

For 300k a year, you can certainly do a lot worse.

by AwfulWaffle on Feb 24, 2005 2:53 PM EST reply actions

Re: Re: McPherson's plate discipline

The problem, at least as far as I'm concerned is not necessarily that he only had 19 in 259 ABs, but more that this was part of a continuing trend where as he went up the system walks went down and strikeouts went up. I really doubt he'll ever have a season as good as .260/.360/.510. I think he's going to have a rough go of it in the big leagues and get benched by Sciosia because of really high strikeout totals.

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Feb 24, 2005 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

Re: McPherson's plate discipline

Fabian does raise some valid concerns. he was a bit old, and playing in some hitter's leagues.

but while he was in hitter's leagues, he was also doing things no other PCL hitter was coming close to doing. And I don't know for sure, but my guess is that his season was historically good.

If his walk rate dwindles to non-existant, he's going to be the power threat off the bench. I really think that's going to be the key to his career, because it's only a matter of time until his iron glove is moved to either 1B or DH.

by AwfulWaffle on Feb 24, 2005 3:02 PM EST up reply actions

Look at what he did

In his stint in the majors. I think we can expect something like that home run ratio (3 homers in 40 at bats) with low average and lots of K's.

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 24, 2005 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

McPherson

I agree with Fabian (not the first time, won't be the last); you can't ignore the strikeout rate. One of the things that Clay Davenport noted when making changes to his MLEQAs on BPros last year is that the old system tended to overproject players who struck out a lot, and he's now made an adjustment for that.

How far do you want to knock McPherson down for that? His overall numbers for 2004, considering park, league, and age, are in the vicinity of Preston Wilson's in 1994 - better plate discipline, better results when he does put the ball into play, but more Ks. That might be where we start when we look at him. Not with Thome, which I've heard as a point of comparison - Thome didn't strike out nearly that much in the minors.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org

by MikeE on Feb 24, 2005 3:05 PM EST reply actions

I just can't remember

a player who has ever been anything like McPherson. If there's a list, it's a short one. I do think that his career is going to set a baseball precedent, one way or the other.

Thome may not have struck out a lot in the minors, but he didn't walk as much, either. In the last 6 years, he's become about as close to a "3 true outcomes" player as you'll find anywhere. more than 170 strikeouts in 4 of the last 6 years, but a whole bunch of walks, too.

and when i look at mcpherson, I see the 99-present Jim Thome with fewer walks. I guess that makes him a "two true outcomes" kind of player. Is it an insult to call somebody a new and improved version of Rob Deer?

and preston wilson is a bad comp, IMO. athletic, righthanded outfielder versus less athletic lefty infielder. wilson struck out a lot, and walked at a bad rate, but his power didn't stand out at all, while mcpherson's is just ridiculous.

I'm looking forward to seeing what Mac can do. I think he'll be a good one.

by AwfulWaffle on Feb 24, 2005 3:17 PM EST reply actions

Best case

I think in his best case scenario he turns out to be Adam Dunn II.

by AaronMullen on Feb 24, 2005 8:05 PM EST up reply actions

Adam Dunn II

I don't think so, he may strike out like Dunn, but Dunn also has a carrer OBP of 0.382. If he is like any Red it would be more along the lines of Wily Mo, ridiculus power, with plate disciple to be developed, but even this doesn't fit because McPherson is a year older than Pena. To me he seems like a Brandon Larson. Put up huge AAA numbers, but we'll see if he can develop an eye. I hope so, because if he can do anything like his minors stats, its going to be fun to watch.

by rdiersin on Feb 24, 2005 8:32 PM EST up reply actions

mcpherson's K and BB rates in the minors

if stardom is whats at stake, we're looking at a possible historic trend breaker. Even guys like Strawberry who K'd a lot in the minors have managed their fair share of walks.

by Bobo2 on Feb 24, 2005 3:27 PM EST reply actions

Preston Wilson "comp"

Awful Waffle, I don't think it's much a straight Preston Wilson comp as it is a comment that Wilson amd McPherson's high minors performance when adjusted for league and ballpark are VERY similar.

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Feb 24, 2005 3:41 PM EST reply actions

John : Question

To clarify for socalcard fan. Can you please confirm that Chavez came out of high school as a shortstop?

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Feb 24, 2005 4:21 PM EST reply actions

Let it go

Jeez, Ohad, let it go. I'll give you that Eric Chavez may have played some shortstop in high school. Good athletes play shortstop in high school. Jim Maloney, as I noted on another thread, played shortstop in high school. My brother played shortstop in high school. Big deal!

If they drafted him as a shortstop, why did he never repeat never play shortstop in the minors? In looking back even further, he was named Baseball America first team high school All America as a junior at, guess what, outfielder. My source for that is my 1996 Baseball America Almanac.

by socalcardfan on Feb 24, 2005 7:52 PM EST up reply actions

chavez

He played 118 games at third base in the California League in 1997, his first season in pro ball. I'd have to do dig up my 1996 baseball americas to see what they were saying about him before the draft, but they are in a box in my office closet.

by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2005 4:29 PM EST reply actions

Chavez at SS or 3B

I think this conversation started regarding athleticism at third base and whether or not Dallas McPherson can handle the position defensively. Basically, it does not matter what Chavez used to play. I think Beltre is a good defensive 3B and Scott Rolen is a great one. Neither of them were shortstops.

I don't believe that McPherson's lack of playing time at SS makes "not athletic" enough to handle the position.

Sickels, this site rules!!!

by count sutton on Feb 24, 2005 4:34 PM EST reply actions

to clarify

I didn't mean to imply that playing SS in the minors [or college] was a prerequisite, but simply a pretty good indicator (as well as the inverse, that not being a ss is a bad indicator).

I think McPherson and Ryan Howard will end up being substantially the same hitter, but McPherson adding much more versatility in the field.

by irwin @ Minor League Ball on Feb 24, 2005 6:14 PM EST up reply actions

mcpherson's glove

I personally think that McPherson is underrated defensively. He's not GREAT or even good, but he's not as bad as people make out. He has a strong arm and good range for such a big guy.

In games I have seen, he reacts well to quick plays, but seems to have trouble when he has too long to think about the play. That should get better with experience.

by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2005 4:38 PM EST reply actions

re: mcpherson's glove

most people's complaint with him is that he plays your basic "hockey goalie" defense. he probably is better than he gets credit for, but his lack of speed and range probably ensure that the best he'll ever be is a troy glaus clone. he's never going to make any athletic plays out there. he's lucky in that he'll be playing for one of the few teams in baseball that would probably try to take advantage of a defender like him.

I don't think his skillset bodes very well for the future. If not for kotchman, I would guarantee he'd be a first baseman by 2008. but he certainly has future DH written all over him.

by AwfulWaffle on Feb 24, 2005 5:04 PM EST up reply actions

D-Mac's D

John -- I saw him in AA last year and he was undeniably awful. Fast forward to September: the kinks in his glove got straightened out in a hurry up in Salt Lake. Great he won't be at third, and will probably be forced to first or DH eventually, but he isn't terrible.

The early bird catches the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.

by scareduck on Feb 24, 2005 9:41 PM EST up reply actions

macier izturis

What's the deal with Macier Izturis?

The guy put up some eye-popping stats at AAA last season, but the Nats and the Angels both sign new SS this offseason, and nobody ever mentions him.

by brian @ Minor League Ball on Feb 24, 2005 5:06 PM EST reply actions

re: maicer izturis

he's never hit for any power, doesn't really walk a lot (although he did last year), and his value has usually been tied solely to his batting average.

and when you're a singles hitter like izturis, that's a pretty big red flag for the future. he was also too old for the league.

Izturis will be lucky to make it to his arbitration years. Maybe he'll play if the angels can find somebody dumb enough to take Cabrera's ridiculous contract off their hands.

by AwfulWaffle on Feb 24, 2005 5:19 PM EST reply actions

callaspo

John, Why isn't callaspo ranked higher? He's the same age as Aybar and he skipped Hi-A to go to AA ahead of aybar. It seems that he held his own as a 20-year-old in AA.

by spinner on Feb 24, 2005 6:52 PM EST reply actions

callaspo

I've seen them both and I am more impressed with Aybar. More quickness at the plate and in the field. Not that Callaspo is a slouch.

by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2005 6:57 PM EST up reply actions

Santana

All these thoughts about Angels prospects and nary a mention about the other Johan, er, I mean the original Ervin.

Obviously the injuries are a concern, but I don't think he'd rate the 'B' without some promise. It doesn't seem that long ago when there was talk about him hitting the Angel's rotation in 2004. Then again, maybe this is one prospect more in Will Carroll's bailiwick than John's.

by ChuckR on Feb 24, 2005 7:21 PM EST reply actions

Trumbo

Does anyone have any info/insight on Trumbo? I think he was a 12th round pick, signed for 1st round money and has plus power and a good arm.

by Oscar Gamble on Feb 24, 2005 8:16 PM EST reply actions

Trumbo

Info on Trumbo? For starters, his name is Mark, not Matt. Here's the scoop:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/040816trumbo.html

by Tools Police on Feb 24, 2005 9:04 PM EST up reply actions

yup

Yup, it's Mark. I have him as Mark in the book. Typo in the list above has been corrected.

by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2005 9:45 PM EST up reply actions

Dodgers

John, I don't know if you are going off a schedule, but I was hoping you could do a list for the Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles after the set of team you're working on right now.

Thanks!

Sickels, this site rules!!!

by count sutton on Feb 24, 2005 10:36 PM EST reply actions

revised schedule coming up

Revised schedule coming up

by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2005 10:44 PM EST reply actions

Re: Erik Aybar

Last summer, one of the guys over at BaseballAmerica said Erik Aybar could be one of the top prospects in ALL the minors....not just a top shortstop prospect.

by Goodfella on Feb 24, 2005 11:45 PM EST reply actions

Kotchman?!

I don't understand this fascination with Kotchman. He can't stay healthy and he doesn't project to have big time power. How is this guy the top prospect in Anaheim's system?

by grover on Feb 24, 2005 11:46 PM EST reply actions

Look at the doubles

Kotchman has 76 doubles in 834 at bats in the minors. Often times, those doubles turn into home runs down the road as the player matures. Think George Brett. His walk to K ratio looks awfully promising too.

by socalcardfan on Feb 25, 2005 12:14 AM EST up reply actions

Look at the ABs

834 ABs in 3-4 years of professional ball?

CANNOT STAY HEALTHY.

He rakes doubles but he has a line-drive stroke. Not even the Angels think he's going to hit more than 20 HRs in a season and for a 1st baseman that's not a good thing.

by grover on Feb 25, 2005 2:45 AM EST up reply actions

Kotchman?!

Hey Grover....I agreed 100% with you. I can't understand the fascination with Kotchman. How can he be rated in front of McPherson? Kotchman is like a egg shell. What good is a player who is on the DL? Forget about it.

by Goodfella on Feb 25, 2005 12:48 AM EST reply actions

kotchman an eggshell?

What injuries has he had? are we talking things that the team took him out of the lineup so he wouldn't get hurt since he's one of their best prospects? or are we talking breaks? ACL/MCL?

Kotchman was GREAT in his MLB callup, I don't remember the numbers but he went WEEKS without striking out and had a batting average around .300 for most of the time he was there.

by phiago on Feb 25, 2005 1:56 AM EST up reply actions

Set the bar a little higher

Kotchman started out well as most new hitters do, but by the end of the year his batting average was .224 with a .289 OBP and a .276 slugging. Not exactly numbers that you'd want from a 1st baseman.

by grover on Feb 25, 2005 2:42 AM EST up reply actions

Kotchman is an eggshell

Let me quote Baseball America and also the Great John Sickles... "A variety of injuries hampered his progress and limited his playing time in his first three seasons. Last year a torn right hamstring kept him on the shelf for nearly three months in the first half of the season at high Class A Rancho Cucamonga. Wrist and back injuries hampered him in 2001 and 2002. In 2003 it was a torn hamstring."

by Goodfella on Feb 25, 2005 3:42 AM EST up reply actions

hamstring

I dont follow Kotchman as much as As and Angels fans do. How does a first baseman hurt his hamstring? from swinging a bat? running bases?

BTW, back injuries dont bode well. But, if you had read Canseco's book, he actually made a good point on steroids helping him heal faster and prolonged his career.

by Bobo2 on Feb 25, 2005 10:41 AM EST up reply actions

Kotchman = Mike Sweeney?

Good hitter, not much power, always hurt?

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 25, 2005 12:14 PM EST up reply actions

mcpherson

From what I saw last year "stat watching", as the hype got bigger, he hit more HR's. I think he just really wanted to get to the big leagues, walks don't get you called up, HR's do.

by phiago on Feb 25, 2005 1:53 AM EST reply actions

more mcpherson

In his short stay in the majors, his K rate was alarming. This alone could confirm the red flags that everyone sees.

If mcpherson wants his 40+ hrs, he will do it with a .240 or less BA and a strikeout rate around 1k/g.

But, in the few at bats over 3 games that I saw, I think that he has the makings of an intelligent hitter with good plate coverage. I think he will adjust. In his first couple of years, I see more doubles, more gap power, less homers. .275/.335/.480

by splitter on Feb 25, 2005 10:16 AM EST reply actions

Mathis

All this yak about McPherson. What about Jeff Mathis? Is he going to bounce back and be ready to be in MLB lineup in '06?

Daddyboy

by Daddyboy on Feb 25, 2005 10:57 AM EST reply actions

re: Mathis

last season was a total bust for Mathis. the jump to AA proved too much for him. This year, he'll be a 22 year old in double-A, so if he doesn't perform, he'll probably be stripped of his prospect status (if he hasn't already). He was just completely overmatched at the plate last year.

The worry is that Mathis is going to become another in a long, long, long line of prep catchers who flame out in the higher minors. And his defense alone probably isn't good enough to get him to the show.

by AwfulWaffle on Feb 25, 2005 11:20 AM EST up reply actions

mathis

I'm not as pessimistic as AwfulWaffle about Mathis. I agree there is cause for concern, but he actually hit very well last year until Kotchman and McPherson were promoted to Triple-A. This left him alone in the Arkansas lineup, he was pitched around, and he got too anxious and started to press.

At least that is the theory.

by John Sickels on Feb 25, 2005 11:27 AM EST reply actions

he hit under .200

for the final 4 months of the season, and he did it with no power. I have trouble seeing any explanation for that other than his being overmatched. But I've been on the "trade Mathis" bandwagon for about two years now, so perhaps I'm biased by looking for my own vindication.

His one saving grace was his age. He gets one more chance this year, and then he better start filling out those circuit city applications. I just don't see a future in baseball for him.

by AwfulWaffle on Feb 25, 2005 12:18 PM EST up reply actions

Stop!!

You guys are scaring the crap out of me. After much deliberation, I just made a big (fantasy) trade in which I received Roy Halladay, and yes, Cap'n K Mcpherson for Michael Young and B. J. Upton.

Haha...

heh

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 25, 2005 12:09 PM EST reply actions

that's a good trade

Halladay is the shizz-nit. the other guys won't be fantasy stars for at least a while (or in Young's case, never), but you got a legitimate ace.

who is your shortstop?

by AwfulWaffle on Feb 25, 2005 12:14 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah well...

We haven't drafted yet, so at the moment I have no shortstop. It had a lot to do with salary considerations -- Halladay and (especially) McPherson are cheaper than I have them projected for being worth. So was Young, but I don't think Upton's going to see much action this year, and the way our structure works, Young would shoot up next year, and I won't be stuck with Halladay (whom, salary aside, I love), while McPherson will at least qualify at 3B and hopefully be hitting decently at a cheap price.

It was hard to give Young up, but am I right in imagining he has peaked? I just see him as overrated by fantasy players. Of course, I don't believe in position scarcity in fantasy ball, although I guess I'm stealing all my "new" ideas from Dave Luciani anyway. Hope he's as smart as he sounds. I can't draft much worse than I did last year.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 25, 2005 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

Shell and Santana

I'm interested in these two, I have had Santana in a deep keeper lge for some time. I know he had injuries last year, is that why he is only a B or is it his stuff?

Also, Shell had dominant numbers last year but they kept him in high A ball all year for the second consecutive season. Granted he is only 21 but so is Santana and he was at AA. I'm wondering what the reason was for keeping him at A ball again.

by alstl04 on Feb 25, 2005 12:25 PM EST reply actions

kotchman=sweeny comps

I dont know if its a fair comparison to have sweeney as a ceiling projection for kotchman. There's a guy I think might resemble more closely with Kotchman's minor league stat projections, without the getting hurt part of course.

Kotchman may have a John Olerud type career as a ceiling projection (20 homers, walks a great deal, good AVG and solid glove). I just dont see him hitting more than 30 homers, whether he hits in anaheim or not.

by Bobo2 on Feb 25, 2005 12:59 PM EST reply actions

McPherson and Kotchman

One thing I noticed about D-Mac is that left handers just made him look stupid. He was swinging at things a foot outside, just hopeless. But against righties it was something else, he would whiff on a so-so pitch, but smack one when the pitcher hit their spot. I think he is a guess hitter, at least sometimes, and you'll see him crush some righties when you least expect it. Also, the LA-Cal-Ana-LA/Ana Angels have some real nice righties to platoon with him, hellooo Quinlan.

On the other guy, the impressive thing about K-man is he is so frickin' young to be where he is.

by elricsi on Feb 25, 2005 11:25 PM EST reply actions