Also, when do you see Felix Hernandez arriving in the majors?

Thanks.

And Felix will be in the show this summer, barring injury.

Betancourt: John (#4), Me (not ranked)

I've tried to get something of a conensus on him, but not too many scouts have seen him play recently, and the reports are too different to take one with any real confidence.  Depending on who you believe, he's either a mediocre fielder with gap power or a slick glove who can't hit.  I've heard comparisons ranging from Neifi Perez to Orlando Cabrera to the Marlins Alex Gonzalez. Since I didn't really have anything to add beyond just guessing, I decided not to rank Betancourt.  I think a Grade B is a bit generous, based on everyone I've talked to, but really, we should just admit that we have no idea.  

Feirabend: John (#10), me (#29)

In reality, we're probably not too terribly apart here, since the M's system is full of marginal type guys like Feirabend who have some talent but also have some flaws.  There's just nothing about Feirabend that I really love; his stuff is average, his command is just okay, and his performance hasn't opened any eyes.  The best thing he has going for him is his age and left-handedness.

Jimenez: John (#14), me (#30)

The complete lack of a breaking ball worries me, especially since he doesn't have the velocity to seperate his change from his fastball with consistency.  If he had even a passable curve or slider, I'd be more excited, because his command and changeup are both very good.  I think he's probably going to turn into a AAAA pitcher, though.  

Livingston: John (#16), me (#5)

I like Livingston quite a bit more than John does.  He's shown 90-92 velocity in the past and has the frame to support it, even though he was sitting in the 80s last year.  His curve is solid average and his change is a legitimate outpitch.  His command is terrific.  Double-A will be a nice test for him, but if you're looking for a comparison, he's a poor man's Jeff Francis, for me.  

Cabrera: John (#17), me (#7)

Another guy I'm really high on.  Cabrera is a fantastic defensive shortstop.  He has awesome range and a great first step.  He can turn the double play as well as most major leaguers.  He's the best defensive middle infielder in the system, and only Oswaldo Navarro can come close to his prowess with the glove.  Of all the SS prospects the M's have, he's the only one I think will play the position in the majors.  He's not just a glove, either.  He has line drive gap power and makes solid contact, plus has a decent knowledge of the strike zone for a kid his age.  The .272 average in the Northwest League isn't great, but the secondary numbers (24 extra base hits, 21 walks) show potential.  He's the best bet of any Mariner prospect to break out and become a national name next year.  

Also, I gotta disagree with the comment about Guzman.  Scouts hate his athleticism; his tools are below average across the board.  However, for his age, he's got a terrific approach at the plate and plays well above his physical abilities.  He's a Bill Mueller type offensively, a guy scouts won't like but who might turn into a nifty little hitter.  His glove is pretty questionable at third, thoguh.  

www.ussmariner.com/features/futureforty.htm

That should get you to the page I was trying to point out.

There's talent there, no question.  I just don't see an outstanding raw physical package that makes me proclaim him as a special talent.  His value is going to be basically tied up to how well he can hit, and at this point, we just don't know how well he'll adjust to good pitching.  He's a high risk, medium reward guy in my eyes, which is why I had him at #13 on my list.  But, I realize I'm the resident pessimist when it comes to Tui.  A lot of others like him more than I do.

I've been pretty lucky to develop a pretty large network of players, scouts, and front office guys that I can rely on for good information.  I've only seen Tui on tape, but I've seen most of the guys in the M's organization in person.  I go to a ton of minor league games each year and have taken several trips to spring training.  

And yes, Matt Tuiasasopo is from the famous Tuiasasopo family.  His brother Marques played QB for the Huskies and is now a member of the Oakland Raiders.  Their dad played in the NFL as well.  

Of course, they have Chris Burke ahead of Rickie Weeks, so you know, that's about all I have to say about that.

Seriously, it that just a run of bad luck or is there something more to it?

There's almost no chance Felix breaks camp with the team.  Right now, they have 14 guys fighting for 12 spots.  Unless Pineiro and Guardado both start the season on the DL, I don't see Felix going north with the team.  Most expectations have him getting around 10 starts in Tacoma, and if he's pitching as expected, getting the call in June or so.  I'd expect they'll probably try to limit him to 150 total innings, like they did last year, so unless the M's are fighting for the division, he may spend a month in the bullpen.  

Here is a list (off the top of my head so it is incomplete to be sure) of major prospect pitchers with major arm injurys (all in the last few years):

Gil Meche
Ryan Anderson
Roger Salkeld
Jeff Heaverlo
Greg Wooten
Jordan Zimmerman
Matt Thornton
Sam Hays
Jeff Farrnsworth
Ken Cloude
Aaron Taylor
Aaron Looper
Rafael Soriano
Travis Blackley

If I was going to do a letter grade like John does, I'd probably give Craig a C+, not terribly different from John's C rating.  He might be #11 on my list and absent from John's, but I don't think we have hugely different opinions on the guy.  

Though, I will note that speed is not one of his assets.  He's a good baserunner with instincts who knows when to swipe a bag, but he's a below average runner.

I don't have a great read on Betancourt.  There just aren't that many scouts who have seen him play much, and the ones who have don't have a consensus opinion.  That's really why I chose to leave him off the Future Forty; I felt like I'd be guessing, no matter where I put him.  I don't feel like I have enough credible information to defend any position I take on his abilities.  I haven't seen him myself, we have no useful statistical information, and the second hand reports I've got don't agree.  

Campillo, I have a better feel for, though I'd still like to see him myself.  Fastball sits 88-92 with downward movement, keeps it down in the zone.  Changeup is his best pitch, throws it at any point in the count.  Cut fastball used as a show pitch to keep hitters off balance.  No real breaking ball.  Command is average.  His ability to succeed is going to be tied to his home run rate; he's been spectacular in Mexico at keeping the ball in the park, and if he can bring that skill to the majors, he'll succeed despite marginal walk and strikeout rates.  The best comparison might be a right-handed Bobby Madritsch.  

How would you rate his movement on fastballs, namely 2 seamers?

In Tuiasosopo's (and John's) defense:

1.  Several MLB clubs would have taken Matt Tuiasosopo in Round 1 of the ammy draft, if it had not been for his signability issues.
2.  Roger Jongewaard, considered by many to be the best talent evaluator there is bar none, specifically compared Tuiasosopo to Ken Griffey Jr. and Rickey Henderson.  "The special ones, Rickey, Junior, Tuiasosopo, they move at their own pace," Jongy said.  "That's why we went after him so hard."

Among the things that Jongy was referring to was Tui's ability to hang in on a tough RH slider, Tui's power and speed and body control, his hand/eye coordination, and his presence.

I'm not sure where I'd factor in the observation that Tui can't yet hit a plus-plus breaking pitch, at 18.  I think that Jongewaard is looking at the sheer talent here, and assuming that an 18-year-old learns to hit as he moves through the system.

3.  Baseball America has Tui already the #5 in the org, as does Sickels, as do I.  If you could only protect six M's minor leaguers in an expansion draft, Tui would be one of mine.

Of course any Grade A/B talent could wash out.  But I've got to dissent that Tuiasosopo is a "medium reward" prospect.  Jongy, as well as most observers, are not ruling out very high upside for Tuiasosopo.

Cheers,
Dr D

Jongewaard's folder reads Grade A prospect from the word go.  Cameron files a cross-check that says "will have to play OF; can't yet hit the real good curve; has a hole in on his hands"

How do we balance those things out, as it pertains to an 18-year-old?

They're not at all contradictory.

If a cross-checker were to contradict Jongy with a remark like "serious questions about bat speed" or "swings oddly through fastballs" or "warning track power" or things of that nature, then we'd have a discrepancy to reconcile.

But as it stands, you've got the Mariners scouts saying this is a very special talent, and Cameron saying he's got some learning to do.  Both are okay by me.

BABVA,
Dr D

1. What MLB pitcher (past or present) do you think he most closely resembles?
   
2. Assuming he has a rotation spot in 2006 what kind of #s do you think he could put up (WHIP, ERA, K/BB, etc.)
   
3. What do you think the line could look like in his career year?
   
4. Are any major league hitters going to be bailing out on this guy's breaking ball?  I've read reports that minor leaguers have but obviously there's a pretty big difference between some major and minor leaguers.

1. The Gooden comparison gets used a lot, but that's because there just aren't a whole lot of pitchers who make the show before they turn 20.  You could toss Rick Ankiel and maybe Josh Beckett out there as recent examples of kids who came up after very little minor league time because they were simply too good for their competition.  There isn't one pitcher who, when I watch Hernandez throw, I think "yea, he's a young...".  He's a little bit of Roger Clemens, a little bit of Gooden, and a little bit of Beckett.
2. Wild Guess for 2006 performance: 185 innings, 3.45 ERA, 75 BB, 210 strikeouts.  
3. Predicting a career line for an 18-year-old is a fool's errand, but since you asked nicely, I'll just make something up: 4000 innings, 3.50 ERA, 1400 BB, 3800 strikeouts, 215 wins.  But, you know, that could just as easily read 12 innings, 8.87 ERA, and 0 wins.  The attrition rate of young arms is remarkably high.  
4. I'm not sure about bailing out, but Felix's curve is going to freeze many major league hitters.  Its a knee-buckler when its on, and when he throws it after a 98 MPH fastball, its real tough to adjust to.  

What is remarkable about Reed is his K rates, and especially his K rates upon adjusting to a new league (and pitchers he hasn't seen).

In September '04, Reed showed a remarkable ability to 'get on top of the pitch' even on a reactive basis.  Obviously Reed had no clue who the (MLB) pitchers were or what they had, and yet swing after swing he bisected the ball as though he were Edgar or Ichiro.

How many MLB AB's did Reed go before he finally struck out? Was it 25 or something?

-------------------

If Reed plays LF, RF, or (say) 1B ... 15 homers doesn't mean he can't be a star.  What it would mean is that he would need that many more BB, SB's, or 2B's in order to be a star.

You can create 8 runs per 27 outs without hitting HR's.  It does put pressure on your secondary average, to have to do it without a lot of HR's.  But Gwynn and Carew and Rose and Damon and Ichiro and a lot of guys do it.

I dunno if Reed will be a star.  But I wouldn't rule out his being a star.  The kid can flat hit.

Cheers,
Dr D

• As Dave stated earlier with Guzman, it's not that he's an impressive athlete so much as he outperforms what he has.  It's also tough to get a good grip on his performance to, as he was basically vaulted over three levels entirely and somehow managed to hold his own.  Depending on where he's placed next year, I would expect his Ks and BBs to even out a little.  I agree with the Bill Mueller assessment, though he could have a little more power.  You just have to find a position for him...
• Yung-chi Chen is in a similar position predicament, but rather different as a player.  His stolen base ability is something that the system hasn't really seen since... well, number nine on the list, except Chen has some pop to his bat.  Might've been a little undermatched by his competition, but there's always next year.
• Balentien he has a reputation for a grip and rip approach, but I don't know if that's all there is to it.  I've watched his development statistically for a few years now and it seems that his plate discipline improves continually as the season goes on.  Whether he just takes a while to adjust to the level or whether the pitchers just throw up the white flag, I am interested in seeing how he will do over a full season.  One of the guys on the Wisconsin field staff (I think) said that Balentien needs to figure out that he has enough power to hit it out to any field and things will sort themselves out from there, or something along those lines.
• Probably all that's keeping Dorman from the majors is a little bit better command.  Not bad for a former catcher.

I just have one question:

The M's had a pretty strange season last year, and basically used July-September as a talent evaluation period.  Thus, a lot of guys in the system were brought up earlier than they would have been under more stable conditions, several of which will be sent back down after spring training.  Where would you guys rank Jose Lopez, Justin Leone, Bucky Jacobsen, and Bobby Madritsch if they were still eligable for this list?

I did see him once when he pitched in California league last year. While his curveball looked real nasty, he threw a 97-98 four seamer with great command on either corner but it looked real straight.

That 4 seamer is the one pitch I think major leaguers may be able to tee off on that minor leaguers couldnt. His curveball, forget about it...

Madritsch is a fastball-change up guy, and he doesn't really have the arm action to add a legit breaking ball.  He comes from under 3/4, ruling out a curve, and any slider from that angle would be more of a slurve.  He might be able to add a cut fastball, ala Esteban Loaiza or Livan Hernandez, but for the most part, he's going to live by keeping the ball down and mixing in his changeup.  

What do you see as a long term career path for Madtritsch? I seriously think if he could add a good slurve we might be looking at a legit Cy Young candidate. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic.

The other guys on the HR-rate leaderboard (of course, only Hudson was even close to Mads in this category) are guys like Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb, and Jaret Wright.  Wright is a slight groundball pitcher, but Huddy, Lowe, and Webb are among the most dominating groundball machines in the game.  Its natural that they don't give up bombs, because a great majority of the balls put in play against them are hit on the ground.  

That's not true with Madritsch, and I've seen several studies that show that pitchers with low HR rates but average FB rates are likely benefiting from some amount of luck or sample size noise, and I'm not sure we can expect Madritsch to keep the ball in the park with the same regularity we saw last year.  

If his command doesn't improve and he starts giving up a few more homers, well, he's still a good pitcher, but he's certainly not Cy Young material.  I think he's good enough to be a solid 3rd starter on a contending club, a Jon Lieber caliber of pitcher.  Considering the M's won't have to pay him more than a pittance until 2007 and he won't make anything near market value until 2008, well, that's still an extremely valuable commodity.

On Betancourt: If I were required to make a decision on him, knowing what I know, I suppose I'd put him a couple of slots behind Tui. My reasoning would be that the team values him about as highly as they did Tui at the beginning of the summer, and Tui had a good couple months after signing, while we have no really objective evidence about Betancourt available to us. (Also, since Betancourt was a free agent while Tui was a draftee, the winner's curse applies more in Betancourt's case, which should also cause a slight downgrade on Betancourt.) ...So, while I sympathize with Dave's reasons for avoiding the question entirely, I think I at least have intelligent reasons for thinking of Betancourt in the 8-10 range (although, even more than with a new draftee, his stock could go up or down quickly with a couple months of performance in "organized" ball).

On Campillo: I'm thinking of him as being, in effect, a guy who put together two great months in AAA (which in his case just happened to occur during the winter), and who seemed to show good stuff in doing it, but who had a track record of mediocrity before that (and who isn't exactly a spring chicken anymore). Could he be establishing a new level of performance? Sure; that happens sometimes. But the two-month mirages outnumber the new-level-of-performance establishments enough that I'm still taking the cautious view. So Campillo stacks up around #15 in my mind, a few notches behind Atchison.

The really interesting case, though, is Guzman. I'm trying to think of examples of hitters (not pitchers) who've come up with decent results in spite of mediocre tools. The obvious one of course is Kevin "I don't even know if I have a tool" Youkilis; he did all right in his first couple months, although we'll probably want to see some more of a sample before we consider him well-established. Who else? Eckstein, I suppose. I don't see Guzman as a star in the making, of course; but a few years as a decent regular probably isn't out of the question. I'd put him in the mid-teens too, a few notches behind Leone and Strong.

#1, Madritsch's value is not that he has great upside, but that he will be so reliably good.  There's a reason that his strikeouts don't go up past 6K/gm - he doesn't have a gamebreaking putaway pitch.  He has a plus fastball, a plus change, the heart of a lion and that's it.  

Yes, Crazy had the .320 SLG (or whatever) in '04, but that was based on an 0.3 HR/gm rate.  Madritsch won't maintain that, because nobody maintains that.  An 0.3 HR rate is the equivalent of a .497 AVG and we know nobody can do that ;-) ....

Have to agree, #3, that Mads will never develop a plus breaking pitch.  His slurve really is a wrinkle off his change, and it's very tough to throw a blooper Zito curve off of drop-and-drive mechanics.

=========

Madritsch has plus control (ability to throw strikes) because of his unbelievable mechanics.  He has questionable command (location within the strike zone), which actually works to his advantage ... check an ESPN scatter chart after one of his starts and it looks like a monkey hurled red paint against a window.  

Madritsch's change also is a reliable -12 to -15 mph off his fastball.  

"Effectively wild" combined with a -15 change prevents the batters from planting their back feet and loading up, and it is the Madritsch recipe for keeping the batters off the fences.  

Ironically, Madritsch through his lack of command winds up demo'ing the Ray Miller Theory "change location, change speeds, throw strikes."  When the batter doesn't know where the ball's going to be, it's hard for him to drive the pitch.

===========

You can't teach WARRIOR.  :-)

Mad Bobby doesn't have the tools to win the Cy Young, but he does have the tools to be a plus starter.  And the fascinating thing is that he becomes the first power lefty to pitch in Safeco.  Who knows how low he might keep that HR rate, aided by the home park.

Pencil Crazy in as a Grade A-/B+ starter, in the general Leiber / Pavano / Perez range, and let him pitch.

My $0.02,
Dr D

Can't he at least be a jerk or something?

So...cocky?  

Of course, I find that awesome.  

Also, throw out the numbers on Tuiasosopo I say. I really think that dude is gonna be an impact player some day. Yes, it's early, but as old school guys like to say, "It's in the blood". His brother Marques is my favorite UW Husky of all time, and single handedly took Dawgs to a Rose Bowl Championship and a #3 final ranking, as well as being Pac-10 co-MVP (along with Joey Harrington)... And this is after most colleges didn't even recruit Marques as a QB, they all wanted him to play in the defensive backfield... UW gave him a chance and the rest is history, as the expression goes. The only question remaining about Marques is: Why don't the Raiders give him a chance?

Now, back to Matt... He was a highly touted QB prospect, but always wanted to play Major League Baseball, thus the decision to sign with the M's after not much thought. Sure, there's always that big bad slider waiting for him in some AA ball park... But at this point, I love that he's in the M's system.

As for Tui and his family, well, I think bloodlines is probably the most overrated piece of information scouts use.  The list of terrible relatives of big leaguers who get a shot because their last name is the same as an all-star is long and extensive.  The M's wasted $2 million on Michael Garciaparra, who probably wouldn't have been drafted at all if his last name was Smith or Jones.  

Evaluate a player on his worth, not the accomplishments of his relatives.

But in Tui's case, the case regarding his athletic heritage runs specifically to the fact that he is a uniquely gifted athlete.  He is tremendously physically gifted even by the standards of professional baseball players.

Tui was looking at starting in the Pac-10 at quarterback as a true freshman.  And football is his 2nd sport. His gifts are the essential point here, rather than his family.

Being a Bo Jackson-, John Elway-type athlete might not mean much except that Tui already combines that with the extra level of baseball hand/eye coordination also.

----------------

"We want to look at him and see what he's got," Hargrove added. "The scouting reports I've read on him say he is an exceptional talent."  http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/sea/news/sea_news.jsp?ymd=20050120&content_id=932805& amp;vkey=news_sea&fext=.jsp

"He is a very, very good athlete," assistant general manager Lee Pelekoudas said. "I saw him in the Arizona Rookie League and he was very advanced with the bat at that point. I think he's a kid who's going to [improve] quickly with the bat.

I'm looking at an AL scout's report on Tui's first week in pro baseball, and it reads, "I was at those games and I, too, was as impressed as can be.  I didn't think he'd be able to take pitches the other way for a few years. I can throw that idea out the window."

"You can see right away that he had projectable power.  He is built well and has a nice solid swing that gets through the zone very quickly. But for him to hit six home runs in his first 100 professional at-bats was far beyond all expectations."

-------------

I'm not saying that Tui will be a star, any more than you can pronounce Delmon Young an MLB star.

But I would strongly advise against capping Tui's upside so early, labeling him a "medium reward" player.  There isn't a thing in the world to say that Tui won't be Mike Piazza at the plate.

The AL scouting report includes this observation:  "I wouldn't rule out right field or third base for him, just yet.  It's still very early in his career and nearly impossible to judge what he can and cannot do."  That'll do for us too.

Tui might be nothing, but he also might be a cleanup hitter in the big leagues.  It's early and I wouldn't put a ceiling on him.

BABVA,
Dr D