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San Francisco Giants Top 20 Prospects List


Merkin Valdez Learning About the Major Leagues

  1. Matt Cain, RHP, A-
  2. Merkin Valdez, RHP, B+
  3. Eddy Martinez-Esteve, OF, B
  4. David Aardsma, RHP, B
  5. Nate Schierholtz, 3B-OF, B
  6. Craig Whitaker, RHP, B
  7. Fred Lewis, OF, B-    
  8. Alfredo Simon, RHP, B-
  9. Patrick Misch, LHP, B-            
  10. John Bowker, OF, B-              
  11. Marcus Sanders, 2B, B-          
  12. Billy Sadler, RHP, C+            
  13. Todd Linden, OF, C+              
  14. Clay Timpner, OF, C+            
  15. Travis Ishikawa, 1B, C          
  16. Justin Knoedler, C, C          
  17. Justin Hedrick, RHP, C          
  18. Brian Burres, LHP, C            
  19. Jonathan Sanchez, LHP, C        
  20. Scott Munter, RHP, C            
This system comes out better than I thought it would, although some of these grades are based on limited sample sizes and early pro performance. Possible controversies:

I like Fred Lewis, but I want to see how his bat holds up outside of the California League before pushing him higher than B-.

Scouts love Travis Ishikawa, and this is reflected in his consistently high ratings by Baseball America. He did show more power last year, but he struck out 126 times in 113 games, and his overall production has yet to live up to his hype. His career numbers: .251 average, .356 OBP, .393 SLG. His best attribute is age: he is 21 years old and still has plenty of development time ahead of him. He has the most raw talent of any of the Grade C guys, and some people think he is about to break out, but at this point I think he is overrated, as first base prospects go. He could certainly prove me wrong.

I'm not a big Brad Hennessey fan, due to his poor K/BB and K/IP ratios.

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Go Dodgers
As a Dodger fan, I was hoping for worse prospects, but I feel secure in our own system.  Of these four, what order do these guys project: Chad Billingsley, Edwin Jackson, Matt Cain, & Merkin Valdez.

I always thought that Brian Sabean was a little overrated as GM in that while he orchestrates good deadline deals and makes some good signings (Matheny and Alou were good deals), the Giants as a whole do not seem to draft well.  Is this correct or am I just being a Dodger fan?

As a side note - based on your discussion a couple days ago - I just found out that I am going to Vero Beach for Spring Training for my first time.

by count sutton on Feb 21, 2005 12:50 PM EST   0 recs

Billingsly, Jackson, Cain, Valdez
Nice foursome, Count.  Here's hoping we can look forward to years of classic duels between them.

by Roger on Feb 21, 2005 11:06 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Ortmeier
Despite the injury problems that are probably never going away (due his style of play), I'm surprised by the total dismissal of Dan Ortmeier.  A little surprised as well by how highly you graded Todd (1 for 4, 1hr, 3k) Linden.

by Roger on Feb 21, 2005 12:52 PM EST   0 recs

whitaker
how is this guy a grade B prospect?

by Bobo2 on Feb 21, 2005 12:53 PM EST   0 recs

Hitting the Wall
Todd Linden is just that latest in a long line of promising Giants hitting prospects who get to AAA and seem to just die.  I guess Linden still has some kind of chance, but right now he sure reminds me of what happened to Seam McGowan and Damon Minor to name just two.  Is this a player development problem on the Giants part, or is it just players finally hitting their ceiling because they aren't quite good enough?

Please, please tell me that the Giants finally have enough hitting prospects in their system that 2 or 3 will eventually contribute to the major league team.

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 21, 2005 1:27 PM EST   0 recs

linden
Linden has much better physical tools than McGowan or Minor ever did. I agree that he is stagnating but I want to give him one more chance.

by John Sickels on Feb 21, 2005 2:09 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Pat Misch vs Alfredo Simon
A lot of us Giants fans have really fallen in love with Pat Misch.  He doesn't get much respect from the BA types, but he just keeps putting up good numbers wherever he pitches.  I've read that he is a highly intelligent pitcher with 4 solid pitches.  BA rated his changeup as the best in the Giants system.  Doesn't a guy like that have more chance of making it in the majors than a guy like Simon who appears to have the proverbial million dollar arm and ten cent head?

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 21, 2005 1:33 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Whitaker
I'm with Bobo on this one; that is very, very optimsitic considering where Whitaker is in this stage of development.  Yea, the strikeouts in the Northwest League at 19 are nice, and his 91-94 MPH fastball has the makings of being a plus pitch, but there's a lot of downside here.

He has 76 professional innings, none at a full season level.  In those 76 innings, he's walked 47 batters and thrown 15 wild pitches.  His command has a long, long ways to go before he's going to be effective against good hitters.  It might get there, it might not.  But he doesn't have the best mechanics in the world and his stuff isn't good enough to overcome poor command.  

If he threw 98 with a hammer curve, I could maybe see him as a Grade B based on potential.  But, realistically, I just don't see it, unless every first round pick in the past two years who hasn't blown out their arm yet gets a similar grade.  

I also think Esteve is a bit too high.  Combine his awful defense in left field with a torn labrum and you're looking at a future first baseman.  The bat has promise, but he hasn't shown enough to be ranked that highly if he's going to have no defensive value and play the easiest position on the field.  

by david cameron on Feb 21, 2005 1:36 PM EST   0 recs

whitaker
I really like Whitaker for some reason. Call it intuition or stupidity, whichever you prefer.

by John Sickels on Feb 21, 2005 2:08 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Stats
While Whit's command obviously has a way to go, I think that HR allowed is a very underrated stat.  Even though he's walking guys he must have atleast some command because to only give up that many homeruns he must be keeping the ball down.  I like it when I guy doesn't give up too many long balls.  I think, considering his upside, B is a fair grade.

by AaronMullen on Feb 21, 2005 5:25 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

whitaker
I gotta go with david on this one. Whittaker is a bit too erratic to be ranked this high for a guy who tops out at 91-94mph with no solid breaking ball.

If he threw harder maybe he'd deserve more of a consideration despite his walk rates and wild pitches.

by Bobo2 on Feb 21, 2005 6:02 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

well
Bobo-Whitaker is a B prospect because he has top of the rotation stuff and because his development is masked by the absence of an advanced rookie league team in the Giants system. Even then he isn't without some performance, as he lead the NWL in strike outs for a team with absolutely no defense.

OHso-Linden is an intiguing prospect- his average went in the dumper last year in the second half, but he also hit 18 home runs over that span- basically, he doubled his power performance, which is what he had to do if he expects to be be a starting corner OF some day. What he needs to do now is couple this power with a two strike approach that achieves the BA he had in his first year- and there is some question as to whether he is coachable enough to turn this corner, or to develop the patience to take a walk more often. Still, all the ingredients are there to make a nice player.

I'm surprised by Ortmeir's absence too- I gave him a Mulligan for last year because he looked fantastic before his injury- he should have stayed on the DL for another 3 weeks at least, but the team was short handed so... if he had taken a proper recovery time, his stats would have been much more robust.

Count Sutton- with the exception of 98 when he was relatively inexperienced, Sabean actually has drafted fairly well. It is somewhat masked by 1)Never having a top of the draft pick 2)The prediliction to draft pitchers rather than position players, which makes the system look fairly weak 3) The tendency to use prospects to reload more often than some and 4) the tendency to give away pics almost every year on FA signings.

John- I too have an element of "show me" for Lewis, but I've had the opportunity to watch him bout 20 times in the last two years, and the improvement has been remarkable, as the raw talent has been educated.
 I think your Hennessey comments are extremely off base.  He had a two year layoff with those back tumors and the location/speed of his FB and the bite on his plus slider were still only about 80-90% of pre condition last season. When his FB location is back, and he needs location on the 92-93 FB to set up the slider, I think you'll see the ratios plummet.
  You are either going to be very wrong about Ishikawa or very right, and it's too early to tell. His development was also masked a bit from being through that rather toxic enviroment at Hagerstown as well as the rookie team issue,so I want to see what he looks like playing a whole year in SJ before making any judgments.

by ProspectHound on Feb 21, 2005 1:42 PM EST   0 recs

hennessey
Yeah, I may be being a bit unfair to Hennessey due to the tumor issue.

Ortmeier...yes, the injuries are an issue for him too. But he turns 24 in May and struck out more than once per game. I think he's a Grade C right now...you could slot him there somewhere.

by John Sickels on Feb 21, 2005 2:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Linden
Todd Linden certainly has some tools, but he has two serious problems that I think will keep him from making it: 1) his total loss of patience once he got to AAA (pretty decent OBP numbers in Shreveport his first year). 2) Much worse -- he's a switch hitter who's hitting success and power is almost totally limited to this RIGHT side.  A switch hitter who can't hit RH is trouble (JT Snow).  A switch hitter who can't hit LH is just not going to make it.

I saw alot of Lewis and Ishikawa (and others) in Hagerstown.  For Lewis, I was amazed and encouraged by the improvement he showed last year in SJ.  He just so often looked in Hagerstown like an incredibly talented guy who was picking this game up for the first time.  That he could bat 300 and have an OBP over 400 a year later in the Cal League is fantastic.  I also wish Ishikawa well -- he puts on Bonds like performances in BP. It's just jaw-dropping the power he can display.  But he gets in games and way too often seems to be passive and thinking himself into oblivion (the hitting version of Estes).  I hope he figures out the balance between patience and agressiveness because he's got one pretty LH power stroke.  

by Roger on Feb 21, 2005 2:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Split stats
in your comments on Linden you referenced RH/LH split stats. What resource provides those for minor leaguers. I'm curious to know. Would be very useful.

by natsfan2005 on Feb 21, 2005 2:13 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Splits
Don't know of a resource that provides it.  I track a handful of players informally using game logs and an Excel spreadsheet.  Not 100% accurate stats, but good enough to get a picture. MinorLeagueBaseball.com provides daily game logs.

by Roger on Feb 21, 2005 2:59 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Linden
I've never been able to find those stats either.  I have seen several reports stating that Linden's big problem is when he's hitting lefthanded.  Since that's the side he's going to have to hit from 70-80% of the time, that's a big problem, very reminiscent to us Giants fans of JT Snow.

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 21, 2005 3:05 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

CNN/SI
CNN/SI used to have the splits, but they haven't updated the page for, oh, about a year and a half.  Darn shame.

Why did these stop?

by Grant on Feb 21, 2005 3:19 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Marcus Sanders
Really like this kid.  I know it's only Rookie Ball and he wasn't a real high pick(17th Round), but those are very nice numbers right out of high school. A 415 OBP & 431 SLG at 18 years old says keep an eye on me.  He also showed very good baseball insticts by steeling 28 bases in 32 attempts.  I'm sure John is being conservative until he gets more info, but this guy could move up the rankings quick this year.  Outside of Martinez-Estevez there's not another Giant hitter I'd want over him.

by eastin on Feb 21, 2005 1:43 PM EST   0 recs

I would...
...take Schierholtz over Sanders right now, but Baseball America's comments got me excited about Sanders.

by Grant on Feb 21, 2005 2:43 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Ishikawa
I don't think of him as overrated, but perhaps getting a bit more attention because the system isn't so hot.  He'd be pretty far down the lists if he were an Indian prospect.

I'm a believer, though.

by Grant on Feb 21, 2005 2:50 PM EST   0 recs

good point
That's a good point...he gets attention because of the organizational context. He'd be a footnote in a deeper system, a possible sleeper rather than one of the best prospects.

by John Sickels on Feb 21, 2005 3:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Cain
I'm interested to hear how soon all of you think Cain can have an impact in the Show.  I'd like to see him up by the fall at the latest.  If his arm has been well rested it sould be stronger to endure the stretch this year.  Also, what kind of #s do you think he will put up 1. Consistently throughout his career 2. In his best year?

by AaronMullen on Feb 21, 2005 3:06 PM EST   0 recs

Dude
He's like 19 in A ball. Isn't that pushing it a little bit.

by ohad on Feb 21, 2005 3:12 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Cain
Cain pitched 86 innings in double A ball last year which, by the way, ohad, was more than he pitched in A ball.  He did quite well, too, though his walks were up.  I don't think a September call-up is even close to being out of the question. If he does well in AAA, where he could very well start this year, it would only be logical to give him a cup of coffee in September.

by AaronMullen on Feb 21, 2005 3:52 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

cain
Assuming good health, I think we will see Cain sometime in the second half, say late August.

by John Sickels on Feb 21, 2005 3:55 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Cain
September callup yes. But before, when you said i expect him to make an impact real soon, and then you said you want him up by september callup at the latest. I interpreted it as if you were saying bring him up as soon as they can, he's gonna pitch like an all-star. I wouldn't expect tooooooo much of him in his inevitable september (or a little before) callup.

Plus, it's kind of mind boggling to think that a 19 year old will have an impact on a major league team.

by ohad on Feb 22, 2005 6:54 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Cain
I never said I'd like to see him up "real soon." I never said I expect him to "have an impact real soon."  I merely asked how soon all of you thought he would be up and make an impact as you can see if you go back and read my quote.  I think the way he will get a chance to make a start is like to start a double header that would throw off the rotation or fill in for an injury.  Otherwise I could see him filling in a bullpen role come September.  

by AaronMullen on Feb 22, 2005 8:00 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

You're right
Sorry. You didn't say that exactly. Maybe i should have read closer, but i got the impression that you were implying he would have an impact real soon when you followed " how soon do you guys think he will have an impact" with "I think he should be in the show by the fall at the latest".

by ohad on Feb 22, 2005 9:52 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Cain
Whether he's ready or not it's pretty impossible to see him pitching in SF this year unless there's an epidemic on the staff. They won't start his clock until he's ready to start.  I think Foppert's first in line to join the rotation if someone gets hurt/traded/ineffective.  After that Cain's probably pitching against Valdez for the #2 position.  2006 Woody will be gone and possibly Tomko, too, if Cain's had another great season and appears ready.

by Roger on Feb 21, 2005 3:15 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Realistically
If he stays in the pace he is on now, he should be up around All-Star break 06, similar to Harden in  03. I have to think that the Giants wouldn't bring Cain up, they would find someone else. 07 will be when Cain starts tearin it up.

by ohad on Feb 21, 2005 3:26 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

giants and cain
I dont think giants care about pitch counts as much as other teams do.

Expect Cain to be called up real soon this year if he can have respectful numbers to start off the season in the minors.

by Bobo2 on Feb 21, 2005 6:07 PM EST   0 recs

Hedrick
John, I didn't make it to Salem this summer and Hedrick is completely off my radar. Seeing as you rated him higher than anyone else, what can you say about him?

by ProspectHound on Feb 21, 2005 7:05 PM EST   0 recs

What went wrong?
All I heard from envious Giant's fans for the past 4 years was how Kurt Ainsworth, Jesse Foppert, and Jerome Williams were going to become the Giant's own "BIg 3." Obviously that didnt happen, with only Williams making the staff (and not even doing that well). What went wrong with all these young pitchers? Did the Giants just way over-hype them, or did their player developement let them down? Also, how is Foppert expected to rebound from his elbow surgery?

by ucd stomper on Feb 21, 2005 7:12 PM EST   0 recs

Big 3
Ainsworth to me just looks like one of those guys who doesn't pan out for whatever reason.  Foppert got hurt, of course, and I never saw him throw around 97 like he was supposed to.  So wait and see on him.  I'm sure his recovery will be fine from the surgery, we'll just have to see how hard he throws.

And Jerome Williams likes to eat.

by jte87 on Feb 21, 2005 7:59 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

foppert
I saw Foppert hit 95-96 in one game, so I know it is possible. I think the loss of velocity was the first indicator that there was something wrong with his arm.

As for the hopes of Giants fans....well, that's what happens with young pitchers.

by John Sickels on Feb 21, 2005 8:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Foppert/Ainsworth
I think you're being way too hard on both Williams and Foppert. Williams is 17-12 with an ERA under four so far in his career - yeah, he's been up and down, but I'd certainly take that level from a guy who is, after all, still getting his feet wet. Foppert wasn't great as a rookie in '03, true, and then he got hurt, but there are lots of guys who struggle as rookies and settle down later. Either or both could still front a pitching staff; they're both still relatively young, although whether Foppert can get healthy is anyone's guess.
Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org

by MikeE on Feb 21, 2005 8:06 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Big Three
Don't get all gloating too soon.  Ainsworth, in the short time he was with the Giants pitched quite well.  Unfortunately, he suffered a stress fracture of his right scapula and Sabean traded him to Baltimore in the Ponson deal.  Since then, he's had one injury after another and most recently had another surgery on his elbow which he previously had a TJ on.

Look for Williams to have a breakout year this year.  His stats so far are right there with the other W's from 2003, Willis and Webb.

Don't write off Foppert yet.  Many pitchers come back from TJ stronger than ever.

I think Noah Lowry makes a nice substitute for Ainsworth, don't you?

We're not finished yet, with Matt Cain, and Merkin Valdez waiting in the wings.  If you are looking for a real sleeper to keep your eyes out for, go with Pat Misch.

So, the Giants may not only have a big 3, they may have their own homegrown big 5 in a couple of years.  Williams, Lowry, Foppert, Cain, and Valdez.

by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 21, 2005 8:25 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Lowry
Even as an A's fan who loves to mock the Giant's inability to ever put out effective prospects (or in most cases, they incredibly misuse them, like in Pedro Feliz's case), I love Noah Lowry. I think he has the ability to be a solid number 2 pitcher on that staff behind Schimdt.

by ucd stomper on Feb 21, 2005 10:18 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Big 3 hype
The hype was not even close to the uber-hype that the A's and Met's top pitching prospects got in the early 90's when the 3 and 4-somes were coming up together at the same time.

Williams not doing that well?  You need to look at the facts first.  He had a great 3.30 ERA in his initial season, 21 starts, and in his second season when he was admittedly overweight (speaking of Blanton, Blanton looks like a bloated Ponson, if that is possible) and out of shape - which he corrected this off-season - AND he had elbow problems, he had a 4.25 ERA, which is not bad.  His WHIP both seasons were below 1.30 (1.26 and 1.29, respectively), which he has kept low all through the minors, with walks going down his second season but much higher HR rate accounting for about half his rise in ERA.  His maturity as a pitcher (beyond his years) has always been praised by most analysts I've read and he's going to be entering into only his 23rd age season.  If Sandy Koufax was around today and starting his career, you'd be flogging the Dodgers for keeping him around this failed, over-hyped prospect.

Foppert, in recent interviews, have finally admitted that he lied about his arm problems the whole season until his injury.  Everyone was saying in 2003 that they noticed his velocity had dropped but he denied it then when in reality he was gutting out each game until his arm couldn't take it anymore.  If he can regain the mid-90's velocity that made everyone rave about his abilities before the injury, he should be back on track.  From all reports, it sounds like he has recovered physically but hasn't gotten the speed up there yet but he's already ahead of the time table for "Tommy John" surgery.  Again, he is still very young, he starts the season as 24 years of age (he turns 25 mid-season).  So there is still time for him to do something good to great.

What I've noticed is that hype on any prospect is already something you need to take with a grain of salt no matter who it is coming up because anything could derail them before they reach the majors and even when they reach it, injuries seem to be a huge problem as well as the league learning about you.  Watching the Giants prospects over the years builds up an immunity to hype because many of them fizzled by the time they got up.  The A's are no better with their first hyped Big Rotation (Van Poppel, Conroy?, etc.) or even more recently, how about Eric Hinske, he's not looking so great for Toronto anymore, is he?  (Mike Caruso is our version of that)  Look at the Dodgers with Jackson and Miller, they were hyped even more than any of the Giants prospects have been, and the former has fizzled so far and the latter has been injured.

Lastly, 4 years?  Obviously you haven't been following this closely else you would have known that Foppert was not heralded as a prospect until mid to late 2002 season.  He was one of Sabean's many unheralded top draft picks (a converted pitcher in only his 2nd year of pitching for a little known baseball college?)and didn't get the big hype for making the majors until the off-season prior to the 2003 season.  He literally leapt to the top of the charts from nothing in one season.  So he has only been hyped about 2.5 seasons ago.

by biasedgiantsfanatic on Feb 24, 2005 1:37 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Hype on prospects
Ooops, left out one thing on prospects.  Hype is already high for just one prospects but it gets totally out of control when you start talking about a group of pitching prospects.  You are setting yourself up for a fall if you buy into the hype of any "Big 3 or 4".  Lucky for the A's they were able to do it with Hudson et al, but most groups of hyped players rarely turn out well for the whole group, there will be disappointments for one if not all.

by biasedgiantsfanatic on Feb 24, 2005 1:41 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Fred Lewis
A couple of years ago, I got nostalgic for my youth and bought some packs of baseball cards.  I got a Fred Lewis card in a pack that was from some prospect set.  Since I live close to San Jose and knew I'd get to see him, I sort of became a fan and have paid attention to him.  

I really liked the way he played last season.  I'm more of a stat guy than a scout guy, but he looks like a ballplayer.  Didn't really blow me away on defense in center though.

Was at a game last season where the bat flew out of his hands and landed about 10 feet to the left of where we were and broke some old lady's arm.  That sucked.

by jte87 on Feb 21, 2005 8:06 PM EST   0 recs

EM-E
I agree with David Cameron that he's too high.  I'd definitely put him behind Aardsma and Schierholtz (who I think is underrated, although I want to see what he does at AA).
Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org

by MikeE on Feb 21, 2005 8:11 PM EST   0 recs

EM-E
I concur with Dave and Mike that EME should slot behind Aardsma and Schierholtz (who I completely whiffed on coming out of juco ball and who can also probably now be called an OF-3B).

Incidentally, the H/R splits are still available on CNNSI if you hardcode the year in the URL, even if the L/R aren't...

by Der Komminsksar on Feb 21, 2005 11:00 PM EST   0 recs

CNN/SI L/R splits
The original question was where are there L/R splits for minor leaguers, not major leaguers.  I would be greatly interested in any minor league splits as well but since MILB.com is the official site and stats for the minors (run by Sports Network) and they don't provide any splits, I would bet that there is none out there to get until they do it.  Even Baseball America has turned to Sports Network for their data.

If you want MLB splits, I have found ESPN and Yahoo to be good places to get L/R and a multitude of other great splits.

by biasedgiantsfanatic on Feb 24, 2005 2:10 PM EST   0 recs

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