Cincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2005 2:12 PM EST in News Comment 34 comments

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, B+
Richie Gardner, RHP, B+
Joey Votto, 1B, B+
Thomas Pauly, RHP, B+
Homer Bailey, RHP, B-
B.J. Szymanski, OF, C+
Todd Coffey, RHP, C+
William Bergolla, 2B, C+
Tyler Pelland, LHP, C+
Carlos Guevera, RHP, C+
Paul Janish, SS, C
Daylan Childress, RHP, C
Matt Belisle, RHP, C
Bubba Nelson, RHP, C
Jesse Gutierrez, 1B-C, C
Steve Kelly, RHP, C
Elizardo Ramirez, RHP, C
Steve Smitherman, OF, C
Joe Valentine, RHP, C
Rafael Gonzalez, RHP, C

Some good guys at the top in this system, but it thins out quickly. Rating Pauly over Bailey is controversial, considering that Bailey was a first-round pick last year. I want to make sure he is completely healthy so I am conservative with his grade, although B- may be a bit too low. If he comes out of the box well in '05, his grade will rise very quickly. The rating of Carlos Guevera at number 10 is highly aggressive, but 90 strikeouts in 57 innings caught my eye, even if it was in the Midwest League. The large group of Grade C prospects is difficult to distinguish...there isn't much difference between number 11 and number 19, so you can move those up and down the list depending on your own instincts.
There are several other Grade C prospects who got consideration: Joe Wilson, Dane Sardinha, Javon Moran, Chris Dickerson and a few others.
Overall this is a pretty average farm system.
As always, feel free to comment and point out where I'm being a moron.

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Comments

Richie Gardner

I like him, i think he's pretty underrated. Also, before the draft, i read raves about BJ Szymanski. I don't remember what it was exactly, i think they said he was the most athletic, or maybe he was the most polished hitter i don't remember. But i read good stuff about him. If I'm a Reds fan, i look at him like i currently do about Richie Robnett. Excitedly.

by ohad on Feb 19, 2005 2:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bubba Nelson

I can't see it. I mean BA I think has said he won't even be in their top 30 and his stats were just horrible. I guess I am more hopeful for Chris Gruler or Phil Dumtrait than I am of Nelson

by rdiersin on Feb 19, 2005 2:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

nelson

I didn't want to give up on him completely yet, but I see your point.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2005 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Votto

To add to the discussion from the other day about underrated prospects I'd have to add Votto. Not from you Jon, you have him rated about right, but on other lists.

by rdiersin on Feb 19, 2005 2:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

votto

Votto is significantly underrated by most lists. He can really hit.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2005 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yea

I am going to look into it, but I have a feeling if I looked at James's runs created for a team, but did it for players I think Votto will be just a little less than Dopirak and Barton, but not by much.

by rdiersin on Feb 19, 2005 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

By the way John, thanks for doing this. I bought your prospect handbook and have really enjoyed it. You give more insight than most and I like your statistical approach and even thought my Reds have an average system, you've given good analysis of it.

by rdiersin on Feb 19, 2005 2:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

sorry

that should be "even though", sorry

by rdiersin on Feb 19, 2005 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Howard

One question I had was why did you leave Kevin Howard out? I mean he does have an unorthodox swing from what I hear, but he seems to get the job done.

by rdiersin on Feb 19, 2005 2:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

howard

Howard should probably have been in the book as a Grade C guy. He has some pop and plate discipline, but I'm not certain how he will hold up at higher levels. You can put him on a sleeper list if you like.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2005 2:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of Crazy Screwball ideas

Is it crazy to have

Encarnacion
Pauly
Gardner
Votto
Bailey (who hopefully goes to no.1 next year.)

I just really have a better feeling about Pauly, since he is still learning to start and kept showing progress.

by rdiersin on Feb 19, 2005 2:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Where would Dustin Moseley

Have been if he was still there? And what would his grade be?

by ohad on Feb 19, 2005 3:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

moseley

I gave Moseley a B- in the book, although that may be a notch too high. He'd fit in the 5-6 range.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2005 3:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Missing Something?

Isn't Tony Blanco in the Reds system? He played at Chattanooga and Potomac last year.

If so, I'm surprised to see that he's not on the list...He hit more than a few bombs last year, although, I think he may be getting a little long in the tooth...

Nolan

by Nolan on Feb 19, 2005 3:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

blanco

Blanco went to Washington in Rule 5.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2005 3:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

blanco

Do you really expect him come back or does Bowden just need to have one Wily Mo type on his team?

by rdiersin on Feb 19, 2005 3:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bergolla

John you are awesome - great site.

Gotta ask about this though: In the book you question whether Bergolla will hit with enough "authority" to be a regular. But how much authority does he need to have if he continues to get on base and steal bases, especially if he moves to SS full-time? He is also only 22 and 6'170, so isn't there a good chance he will increase his power at least a little as he gets older? Thanks.

by tupelodylan on Feb 19, 2005 3:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yes

Yes, given his age and size he may develop more pop. He did knock 26 doubles last year, and my concern expressed in the book may be too pessimistic.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2005 3:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Szymanski

John, what do you think of B.J. Szymanski? I read that he was one of the top collegiate athletes in last year's draft and has lots of power. What kind of upside does he have?

by BigBell on Feb 19, 2005 4:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

BJ

BJ is an excellent athlete, but he never played quite as well in college as scouts expected, and his early pro performance at Billings was not that impressive....259 batting average in the Pioneer League, not a lot of power, shaky plate discipline. He has a high physical ceiling but the skills are not there yet.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2005 4:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Billings

But wasn't part of the reason he didn't perform as well because he was injured. I rememeber looking and he was just killing the ball and then he got injured and was out and I think he played through that the rest of the year.

by rdiersin on Feb 19, 2005 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

injury

Yeah, he had a pulled quad muscle I think. I still want to see more.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2005 4:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ryan Wagner

I know that he can no longer be considered a propect, but where do you see his career going after seeing him in 50 big league appearances last year? Last spring this guy was considered the best relief prospect in baseball, how did you have hime rated John?

by ucd stomper on Feb 19, 2005 5:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

wagner

I was extremely high on Wagner last year and had him rated right behind Zach Greinke. That did not work out, obviously.

If he is healthy I think he will rebound and turn into a dominant closer. But he has to be healthy.

by John Sickels on Feb 19, 2005 5:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wagner and Street

Who would you say you are/were more high on? Wagner last year, or Street now?

by ohad on Feb 20, 2005 7:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wagner

Wagner, I was higher on Wagner.

by John Sickels on Feb 20, 2005 9:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We'll see how that turns out

Hopefully (from an A's fans point of view) you are wrong about that.

by ohad on Feb 20, 2005 9:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wagner

How serious was his injury last year? I didn't think it was a huge deal. It seemed to me that the main thing for Wagner was his control. He gave up 7 homers and 27 walks in a little over 51 innings. He did show flashes of brilliance, though, like in the month of August.

If he comes out strong this year do you think he has a chance at taking over the closer job by the all-star break?

by AaronMullen on Feb 20, 2005 9:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

command

His command, which was excellent in 2003, took a step backward in '04. If he gets that back he'll be fine. But it's an if.

by John Sickels on Feb 20, 2005 9:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wagner

In the cincinnati post He has said the he has lost 25 pounds and that he knows where the ball is going now. I guess he wasn't happy with how he did and not get sent down.

by rdiersin on Feb 20, 2005 11:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

bobby basham

john, love the site! do you have any hope that mr basham can ever contribute in the bigs? i had heard his velo was way down, then he was injured.

thanks.

by goducks on Feb 19, 2005 6:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Basham

I was wondering abut Basham too. In 2003 he was a B+ prospect. Now, I can't find anything on the lad. Is he even in baseball anymore? Anyone know?

by ejac13 on Feb 21, 2005 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Basham

Basham had major reconstructive surgery on his arm.

I don't think he threw a competitive pitch at all in 2004.

Dan O'Brien had a chat recently with a Cincy newspaper, and stated that all of the Reds pitchers injury contingent (Basham/Howington/Gruler) expected to be at Minor League Spring Training ready to go.

by jmcclain19 on Feb 22, 2005 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs