Chicago Cubs Top Prospects

by John Sickels on Feb 17, 2005 12:21 PM EST in News Comment 37 comments

Brian Dopirak with the glove

Brian Dopirak 1B B+
Felix Pie OF B
Billy Petrick RHP B
Angel Guzman RHP B-
Reynel Pinto LHP B-
Jason Dubois OF B-
Bobby Brownlie RHP B-
Carlos Marmol RHP B-
Ryan Harvey OF C+
Sean Marshall LHP C+
Matt Murton OF C+
Ricky Nolasco RHP C+
Mark Reed C C+
Grant Johnson RHP C+
Matt Craig 3B C+
Brandon Sing 1B C+
Bear Bay RHP C+
Jermaine Van Buren RHP C+
Jon Connolly LHP C+
Richard Lewis 2B C

The Cubs system has thinned out a bit over the last two years, but they've shown the ability to recharge quickly, and I wouldn't get too paranoid about the system if I were a Cubs fan. I think Carlos Marmol is a guy who is significantly underrated by many. Ryan Harvey has enormous potential but still needs to tighten up the strike zone. Catching prospect Mark Reed is the younger brother of Jeremy Reed, and should be getting a lot of attention in 2005. Towards the bottom of the list, Van Buren, Bay, and Connolly may be slightly overrated at Grade C+; they may be true Grade Cs, which would put them in the same class with a bunch of other Grade C guys like Rich Hill, and Carmen Pignatiello.
Jae-Kuk "Birdkiller" Ryu has a great arm but questions about his health and personality make me cautious about him. David Kelton is a Grade C in my mind now; he just hasn't hit with the authority needed for a corner guy.
As usual, feel free to comment on this list. Reader input and ideas help me make them as accurate as possible.
Note that the Baseball America Cubs prospect has Jon Leicester on it, but I don't count him as a prospect any more. I think what he did in the Show last year demonstrates his true level of ability.

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Comments

Crouthers

John, how does Dave Crouthers fit into the picture? He's clearly not in the top 20. Does he have the potential to break into this list with a good year in Triple-A?

Thanks as always.

by dcbaseball on Feb 17, 2005 12:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lanceister

Yeah, I laugh at BA for putting a 26 yr old prospect in a team's Top 10...even funnier is that the cubs have 2 26 yr olds in BA's top 10.

by The Rocc on Feb 17, 2005 12:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

crouthers

You could slot him in anywhere between 18 and 21. He has the natural ability but his command remains erratic. Perhaps the Cubs can help him. Sometimes a change of scenery changes things.

by John Sickels on Feb 17, 2005 1:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Guzman and Pinto

Pinto showed that he was tough to hit in AA and showed promise in his short stint in AAA outside of his first start. Is his only real downside command?

What's the health status on Angel Guzman? A few years ago in 2003 he was getting raved about. Has his stuff deteriorate that much due to the injuries?

by Ienpw on Feb 17, 2005 1:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

pinto

Yeah, Pinto's walk rate is too high so he got a B-. If he can improve that he could be a Grade B or maybe even B+. HIs ceiling is quite high.

Guzman's velocity is back from what I am told, but stamina remains a question.

by John Sickels on Feb 17, 2005 1:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dopirak

No complaints about no one higher than a B+. I don't have to remember too far back to the days when the Cubs were doing well to have one B-!

I was pleased to see you rate Dopirak a B+ actually. What do you think of his defense? Or is it that you think he's that much of a stud with the bat?

I just ordered your prospect book and look forward to bringing it on my spring break trip.

David Geiser

by dvdmgsr on Feb 17, 2005 2:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dopirak

Wasn't Dopirak repeating this level last year?
His stats looked great last year, but I have some concern as to how he'll do in Double A.

by eastin on Feb 17, 2005 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dopirak

He had a good showing in the AFL for a guy out of Lansing.

by Ienpw on Feb 17, 2005 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dopirak

Well, Dopirak was promoted to Lansing late in 2003 and got 78 AB there, so it's not like he did two full seasons there.

He hit 39 HR as a 20 year-old, which is good even in low-A ball. I'm not sure what the story was as to why the Cubs didn't promote him at some point last season.

by dvdmgsr on Feb 17, 2005 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Repeating

Didn't realize that he only had 78 ABs last year.
That does make it more impressive.
Have some concerns about bb/k, but he certainly
is a good prospect.

by eastin on Feb 17, 2005 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pie

For Pie, am 800 ops at AA seems fairly impressive for a 20 year old, and the .350 obp seems good, but Pie has fallen in some people's eyes (not necessarily yours). I understand the concern that his power is too wrapped up in triples, but why the concern about his eye? The strikeous, or is it somethings related to something only the scouts can see?

-Jason

by GraceandWayne on Feb 17, 2005 2:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sisco?

John, had Andy Sisco remained in the Cubs system would he have made your top 20?

by BDA on Feb 17, 2005 3:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

sisco

Yes

by John Sickels on Feb 17, 2005 3:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A little off topic, but

for the majority of the time in the minors, what was Carlos Zambrano's grade and such?

by Ienpw on Feb 17, 2005 3:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sing

Went to school with Sing, so I've followed him awhile. At 22/23, I figured he was old for A...yet am pleased to see him at a C+. Anything you can add about him?

by RickG on Feb 17, 2005 3:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Question

You've probably covered this a number of times, but what would an A, B, C, D grade mean exactly? What is the major league comparison of a grade B+ for example?

Great site by the way - ESPN just recently lost the last reason to check out that increasingly lame site.

by IggyReilly on Feb 17, 2005 4:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bear Bay

I'm friends with his dad and I have seen him pitch a lot since he was in High School. I know he did well this year, but I didn't think he was that good. If he reaches his potential, who would he be like in the pros?

by Ienpw on Feb 17, 2005 4:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nolasco

I'm a little surprised Nolasco has just a C+. Granted he struggled at AAA, but he was awfully young for that level. And his numbers at AA -- particularly K/BB ratio and K/IP ratio -- are quite impressive. On the surface, anyway, they are superior to those of Brownlie, and Nolasco is two years younger. So am curious as to why Brownlie is 7th in the system and Nolasco 12th.

And love the new site, by the way.

by scooter on Feb 17, 2005 5:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

nolasco

Nolasco was horrible at Iowa, and when he got sent back to West Tennessee he continued to struggle for some time. I'm worried there may be some sort of underlying issue there.

by John Sickels on Feb 17, 2005 5:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Richard Lewis comment

On the Baseball Primer website, some have asked about my ranking for Richard Lewis. I wanted to reply directly there, but for some reason the Primer site won't accept an account from me...it keeps giving an error message.

Anyway, for you Baseball Primer guys and for everyone else, I gave Lewis a Grade C because his 2004 season was out of place within the context of the rest of his career, he was repeating Double-A, and because he really struggled with the strike zone after being promoted to Triple-A. He turns 25 in June, and I want to see him hit like that again before going overboard with praise. Maybe Grade C is a bit too low, but I wouldn't go higher than C+ based on the current data.

by John Sickels on Feb 17, 2005 6:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I saw Nolasco pitch late last year in Jacksonville and a rather weak hitting lineup (outside of Guzman) lit him up pretty good that night. He wasn't fooling anyone

by UCFKnights on Feb 17, 2005 10:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Petrick

What kind of stuff does he have and what is his ceiling?

by stwright on Feb 17, 2005 6:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lewis comment

Hey John,

I was one of the Primates wondering about Lewis. Haven't had time to comment here until now (BTW, great site!). Your comment pretty much answer my question. Thanks.

by Cabbage on Feb 17, 2005 6:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

thanks

Thanks, Cabbage. Can you pass this on to the Primates? It still won't let me post or sign up.

by John Sickels on Feb 17, 2005 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BTF

I'll see what I can do. I guess I'll email Jim.

by Cabbage on Feb 17, 2005 6:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

BTF

Hey John, try and find an email Dan Werr. He probably can help you, I've got to leave my computer for a while.

by Cabbage on Feb 17, 2005 7:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sean Marshall

John, thanks for the great site!

If he didn't have the finger injury, would Sean Marshall rate higher than a C+? He was dominant in Lansing before struggling in AA with his injury.

by Badger on Feb 17, 2005 7:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Another primate here

Here's Dan Werr's profile, in case you want to email him: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/member/12/

Anyway, the site looks good, and the analysis, as usual is excellent. Keep up the good work.

PS. Looking foward to the Mets' minor league coverage.

by OFF on Feb 17, 2005 9:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Grades

Great site, John,I really enjoy it.
I am concerned that you may have misplaced part of your cub list; I mean the part that has the A's, A-'s and B+'s.

by jax3954 on Feb 17, 2005 10:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Trade

if the Cubs did trade for a closer (Dotel, Urbina, etc), what package would they put together?

by Zonis on Feb 18, 2005 12:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Grant Johnson

John,
Did Johnson sign with the Cubs? I don't recall ever seeing anything on him last summer.

Thanks.

"Remember, no matter where you go, there you are." Pigkiller, Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome

by finman on Feb 18, 2005 3:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yup

Johnson signed. About $900K bonus. He was in my physics class in high school. Heck of a nice guy. Pretty bright as well.

by Cabbage on Feb 18, 2005 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Grant Johnson

Yeah, they signed him before the season was over.

August 13th to be exact

by Ienpw on Feb 18, 2005 3:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

mitre

I know he's pitched too much in the majors to truly be considered a prospect at this point, but what grade would Sergio Mitre get? Does he really have big league stuff and do you think he will lock up the Cubs #5 slot this year?

(Full disclosure: I'm only interested because I just drafted Mitre in my strat-o-matic league and now I'm having buyer's remorse.)

by fernandomania on Feb 21, 2005 5:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

When are you going to update this?

It's been over a year since the last comment. Is this a dead subject?

by scoratesbigtoe on Mar 20, 2006 6:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Some Things Have Changed

I'm not completely sure now on who the top 10 for the Cubs would be, but I can help out a bit with my OWN top 10.

Felix Pie OF - I would expect to see him called up in September but not any earlier, unless there is an injury to someone in the Cubs outfield. Some reports say that Jim Hendry will not extend Juan Pierre's contract and will allow him to leave giving way to Pie to start in centerfield for the Cubs in '07
Brian Dopirak 1B - One of two great first-base prospects still in the system. Unfortunately, they're looking up at Derrek Lee...and he ain't goin anywhere for a while.
Brandon Sing 1B - Probably the most raw power of any player in the Cubs system, but again...another one who is looking up at Derrek Lee. I've seen this kid nearly put one out. Not that big a deal...except for the fact that he broke his bat on the swing. Youch! Now THAT is power.
Bobby Brownlie RHP - It's time for him to put up or shut up. A lot of people were hoping that he'd make a case for the starting rotation this Spring. He didn't get many chances to show anything, though, so it looks like AAA Iowa will be his ticket come April.
Ryan Harvey OF - Harvey has the potential to be a perennial 40 HR guy. He simply needs to cut down on the K's. There is no question about his power potential. He can hit 'em a LONG way. He could join Pie in the Cubs outfield around late season of '07.
Eric Patterson 2B - Corey's younger brother has speed AND patience at the plate. He is magnificent with the drag bunt and the best part is that he's looking at an opening at 2nd base on the big league club within the next year or so. I believe he is ready now if given the opportunity. If he does well at West Tenn, look for a September call-up.
Jae Kuk Ryu RHP - Bird issues behind him...the Cubs list him as being on their 40 man roster. It's unlikely, however, that he'll remain there.
Sean Marshall LHP - What a nice surprise with this kid. He completely came in off the radar. While he still walks a few too many, he has an electric "Barry Zito" type curveball and a solid lower 90's heater. There is a distinct possibility that he will break camp with the big club and fill in on the pitching staff until injuries to Mark Prior and Kerry Wood are resolved.
Angel Guzman RHP - The only question here is the same question that has plagued him from the beginning. His health. He has pitched relatively well this Spring and there is a chance he can make the big league roster. He is also being personally mentored by Carlos Zambrano. Let's just hope that Carlos sticks to teaching him the pitching aspect of the game...and not how to get thrown out by umpires.
Jake Fox C - He hit .281 with 9 homers in 270 at-bats at high A ball last summer. A lot of people believe that he will grow into some power. Although the Cubs are solid with Michael Barrett behind the plate, look for Fox to make a push for the big leagues in late season of '07.

Well, that's it. But these are MY top 10 Cubs prospects and I'm certain others will disagree on the order. I'm certain others will believe that I've left someone out. But that's okay!

by MedicTJ on Mar 27, 2006 10:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs