Oakland Athletics Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2005 1:16 PM EST in News Comment 77 comments

Here is how I make out Oakland's top 20 prospects. Note that once you get down to the Grade C level the choices become rather difficult. You could basically slot any of the Grade C guys (John Baker, Rheinecker, Bynum, Kiger, etc.) in the final two or three slots.

Dan Meyer LHP A-
Daric Barton C A-
Huston Street RHP A-
Nick Swisher OF B+
Joe Blanton RHP B+
Omar Quintanilla SS-2B B+
Richie Robnett OF B+
Jairo Garcia RHP B+
Dan Johnson 1B B
Kurt Suzuki C B
Javier Herrara OF B
Danny Putnam OF B
Brian Snyder 3B B-
Landon Powell C B-
Tyler Johnson LHP C+
Andre Ethier OF C+
Brad Knox RHP C+
Jason Windsor RHP C+
Brad Sullivan RHP C
Ryan Webb RHP C

I haven't done internal organization rankings like this before, but if you guys like it I will keep doing it for the other systems.

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list

The formatting on the list got messed up so I had to re-post, losing the first six comments. Sorry.

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2005 1:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Crap!

Did you read what i said, i kinda forgot what i said.

I remember this:

It's really cool, would be happy if you kept doing it. Also a suggestion: Do this again at the break and see how the prospects you rated are performing. just kinda fun to see how right you are.

by ohad on Feb 14, 2005 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Team Prospect Top 20

Like it John.
Would love to see more.
Maybe you could include a short feature write up on 1 or 2 players in the list. Either someone who's particularly interesting to you or has made great strides recently.

by eastin on Feb 14, 2005 1:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure you tweaked it a bit

From the other one. I remember Suzuki being number nine, unless he just switched with other being who are the same grade.

by ohad on Feb 14, 2005 1:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oh

Now i see. You took of michael Rogers, moved every one back and inserted Dan Johnson in the number nine hole. Got it.

by ohad on Feb 14, 2005 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Royals

I think you should do this for all teams, John. I would anxiously await the listing of my favorite team (KC Royals), but I am not sure you can find twenty players to list!

by pieman1121 on Feb 14, 2005 1:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Calculated all this

Average grade: B. That's gotta be top five.

by ohad on Feb 14, 2005 1:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Daric Barton

Is he not an A because his defense (or should i say, non defense)? Also, who is an A off the top of your head? "King Felix"? Andy Marte?

by ohad on Feb 14, 2005 1:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

barton

Barton is not a Grade A due to questions about his defense.

Ok, I'll do this for every team. Good way to start spring training!

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2005 1:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hooray!

by ohad on Feb 14, 2005 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Javier

It seems like a lot of people are really high on Javier Herrera, yet you rank in at 11 in the organization with a B rating. I've never seen him play, but there have been many reports saying that he's a legitimate 5 tool guy.

I believe Baseball America and Javier at number two or three in the organization. Is he ranked significantly lower because you see a lot of depth in the A's organization? Or is there something not quite right with Javier that others aren't realizing?

Thanks for the list, John. It's always fun to see an educated opinon on the farm system that I follow very closely.

by Dirtbag Pride on Feb 14, 2005 1:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

herrera

Several people have asked me about Javier Herrera. His performance at Vancouver last eyar was very good, and he has great physical tools, but there are still questions about his plate discipline, and I want to see how he holds up against advanced pitching. There's also some personal influence there. . .I have seen Robnett in person and am very impressed with him, but I haven't had the chance to see Herrera yet. "Own eyes" scouting has an impact. . .it can confirm (or not) what you hear on the phone or read in the press. In this case, having seen Robnett myself increases the "confidence factor" in rating him. Intuition also plays a role here. . .I have a gut feeling about Robnett, but am more neutral towards Herrera. It's not scientific, I know. But gut feelings have often worked out for me in the past.

Understand that Grade B for a guy in the Northwest League is still high praise, and if Herrera gets off to a good start in 2005 his grade will rise quickly.

by John Sickels on Feb 15, 2005 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

my take

I like it as well. I already want to go debate with someone the ranking of Meyer over Barton! When discussion is stimulated you know it's a good idea.

by okbluejays on Feb 14, 2005 1:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Barton over Meyer?

Barton is going to move to 1b or the OF because of questions about his defense and the presence of Powell and Suzuki in the organization.

Meyer has front-line stuff, but you have to wonder why the Braves ditched him. They don't do that very often, and the pitcher is succesful somewhere else.

by rockies73 on Feb 14, 2005 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

trading young SP

I thought the Braves did trade young SP a lot... Wainwright, Moss, Schmidt, and Odalis Perez immediately come to mind.

by okbluejays on Feb 14, 2005 7:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But what have they done?

Wainwright wasn't as close to the majors as the media and Cardinals believed.

Moss and Perez have become decent starters but are not the ace pitchers that the team acquiring them believed.

Schmidt is the out-lier. But most of the time when the Braves deal a pitcher he turns out to have been overhyped or not as ready as the media made us believe.

I think people expect Meyer to be the co-ace of the A's staff, when he is a solid No.2 pitcher.

by rockies73 on Feb 15, 2005 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't necessarily agree with it

But Barton has no defense, and Meyer is Mark Mulder (knock on wood). I think it might be because Meyer is proven at higher levels.

by ohad on Feb 14, 2005 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

barton vs. meyer

I like Meyer a lot, but I see him becoming an Odalis Perez type of pitcher (note the similarity of both being former Braves prospects traded away). I think Meyer will make a lot of money in baseball as a solid #2 starter, but I don't see him with Mulder's potential.

On the flipside, I think Barton could turn into an elite hitter - like Lance Berkman. And Barton is doing better, and at a younger age, than Berkman did in the minors.

In the end, how you rank these two may depend on what you prefer, a higher upside or a higher downside. Also, it might depend on whether you place a differential value on hitters as opposed to pitchers. While some might argue that SP is harder to acquire and thus good minor league pitchers should have a premium, I go the other way and say that their inherent injury question mark (see Greg Miller, Honel, McGowan, Jimenez, Everts, etc... from last year) knocks them down a peg. Gimmie Barton any day - even if he never becomes more than a mediocre defensive 1B.

by okbluejays on Feb 14, 2005 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Brown Out?

No Jeremy Brown? What are you anti-As?

Just kidding. That could make an interesting story -- the difference between Swisher and Brown and why one made it and the other didn't.

by rockies73 on Feb 14, 2005 1:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Brown

He isn't a top prospect, but he is still good. Take a look at his numbers from last year. Good eye.

by ohad on Feb 14, 2005 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Brown

>>He isn't a top prospect, but he is still good.<<

Twenty-four year olds who can only muster a .718 OPS is the Texas League are not "good". In fact, they no longer are prospects.

>>>Good eye.<<

He does have a good eye. Unfortunately, he has very little power, so the good eye isn't going to get him to the show. His Isolated Power last year was a putrid .101, which is even worse considering his age.

J.P.

by bads85 on Feb 14, 2005 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jeremy Brown

What does it matter with 24 and power. Some guys never have as much power as they are slated to have. In college, he bashed it. He has kept up his good eye, idk where the power went. In the AFL he regained it though. I think he will have a breakout year. Maybe i exaggerated on the "good" comment, but his hitter's eye keeps him from being bad.

by ohad on Feb 14, 2005 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"What can Brown do for you?"

I heard he was playing hurt in the first half of 2004. I read that he picked it up in the second half. I could be wrong though. He had a great AFL in limited time. Hopefully he can build on that and breakout this year. As for his power, where's Balco when you need 'em? j/k

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 15, 2005 10:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

meyer vs. barton

I rank Meyer ahead because he is closer to the Show.

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2005 2:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

But...

If you had to start a franchise tomorrow, and be ready to compete in the MLB in 2009 (4 years from now), what 5 players would you take with you? Would you take your Top-5?

I would take Swisher, Barton, Meyer, Street, and Herrera.

by Colorado Fan on Feb 15, 2005 1:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

John

Who would you rate as the top ten prospects in all of baseball?

by eastbayrider on Feb 14, 2005 2:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

buy the book

I believe John's book is for sale... go buy it!!

by okbluejays on Feb 14, 2005 7:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Question on Prospect

The A's have a pitcher who pitched at A lvl last year, then got called up to AAA. He has great numbers but I never see anyone mention him at all!

http://www.sports-wired.com/profiles/KO/tbc5897.asp

Shawn Kohn had a bizarly good K:BB ratio, K/9 and BB/9. Also a low ERA every year. Why did he stay in A so long, and will he ever make the majors?

by Zonis on Feb 14, 2005 2:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hey sickels, i got a question

I notice you grade windsor C+ and Sullivan C. In your mind, do you see these two dropping in performance since their draft? Why? Plus,
B. Knox seems to be showing some nice improvement but you grade him a C+...which is pretty average. Is it a case of the first two going down while Knox is moving up?

by stomper on Feb 14, 2005 2:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

sullivan

I'm not at all impressed with what Sullivan did lats year. Windsor looks good to me but we need to see how his stuff holds up at higher levels. Knox, same thing...he pitched great in the Midwest League, but his stuff is somewhat marginal and he'll have to show that he can get people out at higher levels.

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2005 2:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

thanks

I hope these three improve...they are the "next wave" in Oakland.

by stomper on Feb 14, 2005 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd love a Devil Rays Top 20

I want to see how you'd rank this group...it's gonna be hard.

by The Rocc on Feb 14, 2005 2:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What, TB has "a top 20"!!!!!!

Let's not get TOO carried away here. :-) Poor John will be up all night on that one.

by stomper on Feb 14, 2005 3:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Har Har Har

I'm sure that you've heard of Delmon Young, Jeff Niemann, Reid Brignac and Wes Bankston before. We don't have a Billy Beane GM, but we've still got one of the top Farm Systems in baseball.

by The Rocc on Feb 14, 2005 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

prospects

I should hope so... Tampa Bay has stunk ever since it came into the league!

And don't get offended... I'm a Jays fan and I know what it feels like to be stuck in the same division as Boston and NY.

by okbluejays on Feb 14, 2005 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

aaaaaaaah, Toronto!

Oakland's "other" minor league team!

"ok blue jays, let's go blue jays, ok lets play ball"!

by stomper on Feb 14, 2005 7:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I love it.....

Would like to see other teams ranking players as well.

Great to see the A's and knew reasons why Meyer over Blanton as read it elsewhere.

Your new site is great as it allows us to see all teams and not just the A's as on Athletics Nation, one of best Blogs in existance. So keep up the good work. Jayhawker from the south of you.

Oakland A's --- a team on the rise in 2005

by Charlie Brown on Feb 14, 2005 3:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nelson Cruz

John, i love thet top 20 format.
Anyhow, Where would Nelson Cruz have gone if he were still in the farm? I probly would rate him at least #12, since he was actually #10 as rated by baseballamerica before the barton, meyer trades.

by mrmetaa on Feb 14, 2005 3:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

cruz

Cruz would be in the 10-12 range.

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2005 3:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My two cents...

First off, good luck on the new site! Loved your column on ESPN and I'll be checking this one out avidly as well.

I like that you're doing the lists for each prospect as they serve for great discussion fodder, but if you're going to go to all the trouble to rank them like this, I'd prefer a short one-two sentence blurb to accompany each letter grade. That might save you some trouble with checking all the comments and posting your justification for why Player A outranks Player B and so on.

Like I said, best of luck!

by sarchasmic on Feb 14, 2005 3:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Brewers

I would be VERY intrigued to see you rate one of the best systems in baseball: the Brewers. I believe I have seen at least 4 different Top 30's and they are so different.

Love the new site - looking forward to another season of great minor league discussion.

The minors: baseball's only true league left...

by mjwelch11 on Feb 14, 2005 5:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

criteria

I like the ranking, but without knowing your criteria [ie polish, closest to majors, talent, ceiling etc]. At waht were you looking when you assigned them grades?

by warnerkallus on Feb 14, 2005 6:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Maintaining

John,

Just wanted to thank you for all of your work. Have been a fan of yours for years.

by scotiahuskers on Feb 14, 2005 6:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

grades

The grades were the grades they got in my 2005 book. All the things you mentioned "Polish, talent, ceiling, stats, etc.) all factor into the grade. The exact reasoning may vary from player to player.

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2005 6:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

and

Why no love for Jason Windsor. I thought he has a smooth delivery and good movement when watching him in the College World Series. Does noone else besides his family and I have faith in him that he will be aproductive back of the rotation guy one day? Or is it because the kid was shut down for the short season minors this year and noone is taking a chance on how he will play against pros?

by warnerkallus on Feb 14, 2005 6:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ya, i questioned John on Windsor

I too thought C+ was a little light but Windsor needs to have a productive year in '05- starting hopefully in Midland.

by stomper on Feb 14, 2005 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

windsor

I like Jason Windsor. Grade C+ is high praise coming from me for a guy right out of college.

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2005 6:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ok good.

I like a hard grader.

by warnerkallus on Feb 14, 2005 7:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

grader

There are something like 960 guys in my book this year. I gave out a grand total of 6 Grade A ratings, and 21 Grade A-. The vast, vast majority get Grade C.

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2005 7:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well that's a teaser I can't resist

So who were the magic 6 that got "A" grades? I know, I know, buy the book... but I just bought a house and the reading materials are going to have to wait!

by grover on Feb 14, 2005 9:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have a question John

What about Dallas Braden? Lefty, 87-90 mph, plus screwball.

regarding Kohn, he killed Cal league hitters because he's sort of a Chad Bradford. He only throws low 80's and is more like a 4A guy and not a legit prospect.

by blee1134 on Feb 14, 2005 8:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Great Job!

Thank you so much for the A's prospect list. It is great and I hope you would have the time to do all the AL teams. A few questions and comments: 1. Did I not read thoroughly or is there an expanation of the grading system? 2. Would it be possible to give your opinion as to when they will arrive in the major leagues? 3. Where can I get your book?
I have followed you for years and appreciate your insight and hard work. Keep up the good work and I am glad you have this website. Dexter

by dexter on Feb 14, 2005 9:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dear Mr. Sickels,

I am very glad to be able to read your work after you were unceremoniously dumped by ESPN.

I have a question as to your grades. Do these grades indicate major league potential or immediate impact. Do grades increase due to breakout years or steady improvement?

Also, what can I compare the grades to? Would, say, Bobby Crosby have been an A- or B+ several years ago?

Thanks!

by salb918 on Feb 14, 2005 10:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

here is the grade explanation from the book

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.

A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.

Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player; the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2005 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Much Appreciative

Thanks!

by salb918 on Feb 14, 2005 10:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A+

Have you ever dished out an "A+" grade? :)

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 14, 2005 11:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes he has...

I've seen a couple reading his stuff. Think Prior was one and maybe Upton.

If you like these grades, I'd totally suggest his book (not a shameless plug!) it has the gradings and write-ups on 900 or so prospects.

I'm in a Strat-O-Matic league that has 75-man rosters and the minor league draft is very-very important. I've been able to get a couple of sleepers from reading John's stuff.

by rockies73 on Feb 15, 2005 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Where do you do these leagues

With minor league players? Is it for free?

by ohad on Feb 15, 2005 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is what for free?

What are you asking me if it is free?

The book? Go to John's Web site as I think it was about $20-25 for the book.

The League? The league is free. But you have to purchase the Strat-O-Matic game from the company (about $40) and become part of our league. From what I can tell, we are the biggest SOM league in existance where you actually draft every player.

by rockies73 on Feb 15, 2005 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Talking about the league

What is Strat-O-Matic? What is the website?

by ohad on Feb 15, 2005 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

SOM

Strat-O-Matic (www.strat-o-matic.com) is the top baseball simulation games on the market. It has its limitations, but when it comes to research and being able to recreate seasons for accuracy it is the premier game on the market.

There is a forum (http://www.stratfanforum.com/forums/) dedicated to the game (as most of these games have) and I've found the people there to be wonderful for learning more about the game. I've been in my league for 11 years now, and some of the guys on the forum, started playing in the '60s so there is a ton of information out there about the game.

Okay, probably way more information than you really wanted or needed :-)

Drop me an e-mail if you want more information, I'll try to explain the game better.

by rockies73 on Feb 15, 2005 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Weird

I never heard of SOM. I play OOTP, how does that compare?

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 15, 2005 10:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure

What is OOTP? Is there a Web site?

by rockies73 on Feb 16, 2005 1:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OOTP

Currently in its 6th edition:

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 16, 2005 9:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Better yet

For the actual game website:

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/ootp/

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 16, 2005 9:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They are comparable...

From a quick glance at the Out of the Park Web site they are the same "type" of game.

Strat-O-Matic released its first set of cards and dice game in '65. The game was done with random dice rolls and placing hits on perspective locations on the cards. The dice were basic and eventually moved up to advanced to account for lefty/righty averages and such. Ten years ago the company started a computer version of the game and it is no where near as graphic as the OOTP program appears to be. But, the game has virtually an open game engine, allowing you to see why Barry Bonds hit that home run (it was a 2-12 on the card etc.) The company has made a committment to keeping the computer game married to its dice/cards game, which has limited the technological advancements for the game.

The founder, and still owner of the company, has made accuracy the company's calling card. If you run stock replays using As Played files and do enough replays to reach a statistically accurate level the numbers are eerily accurate for the game versus real life. The amount of hours the company puts into research has to be unparralled in this baseball sim games.

by rockies73 on Feb 17, 2005 1:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's cool

I guess SOM is the pioneer of baseball sims then. I actually like OOTP because everything is fully editable and I never play with real players and teams. Therefore accuracy of stats are not really a must. The customization (down to player photos, team logos, city names, AA team name, etc) really gets my creative juices flowing.

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 17, 2005 9:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A+

I don't think so.

by John Sickels on Feb 15, 2005 1:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Quick question on Kane County

Howdy John, awesome site, and I'm eagerly looking forward to the book, which I ordered yesterday
My question is about a guy who pitched for Kane County, Dan Fyvie
He's my bowling buddy, and I'm really rooting for him to move up in the system, my question is this, if he isn't in the book in their top 30, could you profile him for me, and tell me if he has any realistic chance of moving up any levels, what level you tihnk he'll plateau at, and if he can make the big time.
Thanks for any time and thought you put into this!!!
Art

by bernworld1975 on Feb 15, 2005 2:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

ok, another question on the same guy

Does anyone have an opinion of Dan Fyvie?
I've asked BA twice, no response,
I've asked MLB.com twice, no response
And now, I've asked our host here, no response,
Just wondering if the gurus don't have an opinion on Fyvie, or if he's just in some twilight zone where he's really to terrible a prospect to talk about
this isn't meant to be in a mean tone, just curious is all

by bernworld1975 on Feb 16, 2005 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

top 20's

Keep 'em coming... just don't make me wait too long for my Cubs!!!

by slurve on Feb 15, 2005 11:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nice Going

Keep them coming. I'm very interested to see your take on AL teams as Spring Training starts.

by RandyKutcherHair on Feb 15, 2005 6:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why stop at 20?

I went through the stats and it seems like the A's had guys that had good years but aren't on your list.

How can you rank someone in the top 10 that has not played higher than A ball? Isn't it just a crap shoot before that. They could hit AA ball and poof!!!

Just asking...

by street69 on Feb 16, 2005 12:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

A+ Grades

I have looked back through my old Minor League Scouting Notebooks and there are no A+ Grades. Here are the players who got an A from '97 to '01:

1997
A. Jones, Vlad, Nomar, Rolen, Konerko

1998
Beltre, Grieve, Konerko, Helton, A. Ramirez

1999
Drew, Chavez, Ankiel, Glaus, Penny

2000
Patterson, Ankiel, Burrell, V. Wells, N. Johnson, D. Brown

2001
Patterson, R. Anderson, Choi, Sheets, Beckett, Hamilton, Pena, Rauch, Oswalt

by griffie on Feb 16, 2005 9:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: A grades from '97 to '01

Seems like the A rated players do well expect for the case of injuries. Only non-injury total bust I see is D.Brown (assuming thats the royal's Dee Brown). Grieve did win a ROY so I won't call him a total bust.

Who is Pena? Is that Wily Mo? I'm surprised that a guy so raw (and a hacker) would get a pure 'A' but I guess it eventually worked out.

by natsfan2005 on Feb 17, 2005 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs