i agree! i`ve never seen anyone rank these players where they rank them. they had felix hernandez 19th and carlos quentin 64th or 84th. it`s really bizarre.

Sure, Scott Baker should have a great career, but he put him ahead of Felix!?!?! WTF??

He thinks he is only going to win 2 or 3 Cy Youngs, as opposed to the 7 everyone else thinks he is going to win.  That is bulletproof logic.

He had Matt Guerrier listed asa prospect...isnt he 28 now?

The biggest issue I have with his assessments is that he seems to have a lot of inconsistency with his projections. If Felix is going to win 2-3 Cy Youngs during his career according to this guy, shouldn't he be at the top of the list?

That being said, I appreciate the fact that he's willing to step out from the opinions of others. It can be all too easy to live by the word of BA or even of John, but I think a lot of the fun of prospect analysis is in being honest. If you don't think a guy will make it, then explain why. If you think somebody will be a star, give it a shot and don't care what somebody else thinks. At one point few people thought Roy Oswalt was a serious prospect for pro ball, but he made it big despite the judgements of people who do this sort of thing for a living!

I could write up a list and be like "Delmon, Brandon Wood, Hermida, they rule!" And if I really believe that they're the best, that's one thing. But if I put them as 1-3 because I'm afraid that people won't take my list seriously otherwise, I really don't see the point of making a list at all.

I have used this site for about a year now and i understand your shock and confusion at the prospect lists that the writer posts. However, i have been pleasantly suprised at his forsight. He does not give top prospects the respect the deserve which is obvious but he is AMAZING about putting you onto sleepers that have great potential that are not on peoples radars because of their lack of hype. He ranked baker top al pitcher last year when i didnt even know who he was and i believe most people are in the same boat. Yet, i was convinced enough to trade for him for cheap and now am very excited about his future.He ranked Duke 2nd in the NL last year and look at the year he had, and im sure no one else would have had him as the 2nd best pitching prospect in the NL. He also had Wang listed as the 7th best pitching prospect in the AL and Wang was not on anyones radar's last year, and now every team would love to have him. I also know that this writer bases his "forcasts" completely on a statistical scoring system that he created. So none of his predictions are using the traditional scouting method ala Baseball America, where future potential and "tools" are factored in, which i personally disagree with. Yet he does provide a good point of view, and while i dont agree with the list in its entirety i would say use it as a tool to evaluate players that may not be Top billing players but could slip through and become good major leaguers like Pujols (no one expected anything like this from him when he was in the minors), Chacin from Tor., and even Lowry from San Fran. So give the guy a chance, you may be suprised. Thanks for reading, and Happy Holidays

TO address a couple of the points made already:

*I don't see what is so disgraceful about it.  He put himself out on a limb with some choices that he knew would be unpopular.  I think that is pretty cool.
*He doesn't provide analysis on each player.  But there is plenty of analysis throughout the season.  
*It is not a prospect site.  It is a fantasy site.  Most of the energy is spent on projecting this season's stats.
*The system that he is using to rank the prospects is brand new this year.  I am sure there will be tweaks as he learns from it.
*He highly rated Jason Kubel a year before anybody else mentioned him.  Jesse Foppert was lowly ranked when everybody else had him highly ranked.  Would everybody be happier if he just averaged the existing rankings to arrive at his list?  That would be helpful.

Abe Alvarez ahead of Chad Billingsley?

Explanations would be nice. Otherwise, it's hard to take it seriously.

I wouldn't call them idiots.  But the Pence pick shows me the relative usefulness of their list.  Pence shredded three A-ball leagues, two of them really low, as a college-tested 21/22-year-old.  Putting a guy like that ahead of, say, Billy Butler doesn't make any sense to me.

Lists like that, clearly done by an ametur at best, give new appreciation to work of those who know what they're doing, like Sickels etc.

but I understand his thought process. A lot of it is based on gut feel.

He places Scott Baker over Felix, because he may feel Felix will blow out his arm were Baker will be a Brad Radke/Mike Mussina type career - never winning a Cy, but having a solid career.

He goes by gut feel a lot. I wish he would explain his specific feelings more.

 

Well, actually this top 100 list is posted on the baseballnotebook website for free.  He does a detailed analysis with discussion in the form of an e-book which costs around $20.  Can hardly blame him for not overwhelming us with explanation in the free product and encouraging us to buy his analysis.  Not that I can make any sense of the exclusion of Howie kendrick.

is when you kick your dog..

this list is somebody's opinion based on their way of analyzing...obviously, in this case, ability to discern strikes, ie, obp, rather than being a major, is an extreme indicator.

while kendrick is a guy who makes proliferous contact with some power, not being particularly athletic and having obp problem, can see, not necessariy agree, with reason for downgrade.  

its all how you use it... he turns you onto sleepers.. if you know how to draft currectly, you can make out like a bandit... just draft all the BA top picks first, then get his sleepers later.. last year i got Duke late in a draft, Wang and Baker were free on the FA wire in my keeper leagues... watch out for Pence + Herrera.. there are some others like Jair Jurrjens (teenager in tigers system, poised for a breakout) .. Casey Janssen is another... he gives some good guys to keep an eye on, and does it better then any other list in my oppinion...