I'd take out his '11 and '12 seasons and replace them with Sickels' '13-'16 projections....his peak will be short but sweet and the decline will be rapid.

He's too big. I think he's going to have a hard time staying healthy carrying all those pounds around and, as he ages, he ain't going to get any lighter.

Who was the last 260 lb rookie that went on to have a great career? I guess CC Sabathia but a) he hasn't had a great career and b) I predict he'll break down as well...

He'll age really poorly, and be playing that 2014 season in around 2011-12

I know Howard isn't the most well-conditioned athlete (I thought he was closer to 230 than 260), but if Mo Vaughn can be productive for 9 years before falling apart, then Howard should definitely be able to do the same, if not better.

In other words, is "the Mo Vaughn future" Howard's upside, the minimum, or the expectation?  This forecast says that it's expected that Howard will be similar to Mo.  I think Howard can be better.  

also "The Mo Vaughn Future" might be a good band name.

I'm not sure he'll be able to sustain such a high batting average over his career.  I'd look for a few 240-260 AVGs sprinkled into that career.  Power looks about right though.

I think the Vaughn comps are right on, and I also think that Howard will struggle with injuries possibly more than Mo, becuase MO could always DH.  Did anyone else hear about Philly moving the fences back some.  Not sure how much it will hurt a guy like Howard, but maybe their pitching will benefit.

I suppose this means that you tend to lean more towards the idea that Howard is going to solve lefties, John?

I don't see a real reason why he can't . . .as a hitter, he's made leaps and bounds every season for the past 3 years. Nonetheless, I'm not convinced that he's actually going to do it.

I really think Howard will have a better prime and a longer one at that than what is predicted here.  The ascent to elite status is predicted as much more gradual than I expect.  Pitchers will certainly make adjustments against him in '06 but they did that during the regular season and Howard adjusted as well.  Look at his stance change from being crouched to almost being upright by the end of the season.  I agree with the prediction of 35 HRs in 06, but I would look for 40+ in 07, and increasing numbers after that until '10, when his decline should start.

 He has to prove he is not a platoon player first.

    AB        HR    AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS     
 vs. Left    61     1    .148    .175    .246    .421     
 vs. Right    251     21    .323    .396    .645    1.042   

Don't get me wrong... I love Howard. I think he deserved RoY. I picked him off the waiver wire in my fantasy league when I was 9th out of 9, and he helped me back to finish 2nd. But let's be realistic here... Howard simply cannot hit lefties (which forced me to platoon him with Chris Shelton, whom I also got off the waiver wire). Howard has all of Mo Vaughn's downside but can only dream of Mo's upside. Because Howard's so huge and non-athletic, I think a significant injury could end his usefulness as a major league player (remember Mo's broken ankle?). And even assuming he stays completely healthy, which is a huge assumption, I could see his skills eroding pretty quickly. Enjoy it while it lasts!

"Who was the last 260 lb rookie that went on to have a great career? I guess CC Sabathia but a) he hasn't had a great career "

Hes had a good one though and hes still only like 26 right.  hes definately a sucess as far as fat rookies go

King Felix?  Last I checked, he's 19 and pushing 240.  Do pitchers get more leeway for weight problems?  I guess it would make some sense if they did, but still . . . Howard is slow, but that doesn't mean he doesn't condition, whereas I can't say the same for Mo Vaughn.

Vaughn did have a better eye at the plate (not to say Howard's is bad), but Howard could definitely have more power than Mo.  To a certain extent, that's what this crystal ball indicates - over almost the same AB's, Howard has a worse K/BB, worse average, but more power than Mo.  

Also from what I've seen of Howard, if the Phillies move the fences back, he'll still hit a ton in Citizen's Bank.  

I wouldn't think so. Most of them (including Howard) are first basemen, which is the least injury-prone position, and most are station-to-station baserunners (again, including Howard). I think he's likely to lose his range at 1B as he gets older and puts on more weight, but I don't see him as a particular injury risk. He's probably in better than most think; he's actually surprisingly fast for his size.

As to Howard's future, I think John's crystal ball is pretty good. I think his rate stats will take a hit next year as he learns to hit major league lefties, but I think he'll make the adjustment. Let's not forget that Chase Utley had absolutely abysmal splits against lefties until Polanco was traded and he started playing every day. He finished the year with an .817 OPS against lefties, a very reasonable split compared to his .946 OPS against righties (especially considering he's a second baseman in his first full season!).

This seems about right.

Howard might be able to sustain success into his early 30s, as Cecil Fielder did, but the odds are against him.

Looking at the projections, it appears that Howard will be an elite player for only about 3-5 years, with most of the comments suggesting the cause is his body type.

Does that mean that David Ortiz, a player with a similar body type, is just about through?

Obviously, the fact that Ortiz is a DH may affect the projections, but Howard could become a DH (via a trade) as early as 2006.

Howard's prime should be sustained longer than that of Fielder's.  Notice Fielder already had 4 seasons under his belt before he really hit his stride.  I would say that Howard certainly hit his ML stride this year.  The fact that Fielder was 26 when he hit 51 homers (just one year older than Howard in 2005) does not mean that Howard will have shorter term success than Fielder.  I would guess starting with next year you would see HR/RBI totals go:
'06  37/102
'07  43/113
'08  48/145
'09  42/122
'10  43/115
'11  35/90

It would be downhill after that.  At age 31 I would expect a decline in production.  But really, a VERY similar player to him would be David Ortiz.  While Ortiz does not play the field essentially at all (except during interleague) which does decrease the risk of injury look at the similarities to Howard.  His heavy build, approach to hit to all fields, and his lefthanded open stance, leads me to believe Howard will have a career very similar to that of Ortiz since he has been a Red Sock.  Ortiz had a bad approach in Minny with a closed stance that did not allow him to catch up to the fastball.  Since he has opened up his stance in Beantown, (here's where Howard starts to mirror him) he hits homers both over the monster and pulls moonshots into the RF seats.  By the end of the season Howard was doing just that.  His penchant for going deep to left was substituted with a good mix of big time shots into right.

"Notice Fielder already had 4 seasons under his belt before he really hit his stride."

Not really, it looks to me like Fielder was ready to hit his stride in 1987 at the age of 23- but
Toronto had an established 1B Willie Upshaw (very disappointing career, peaked at age 26 and immediately declined) and 23 year old McGriff platooning at DH with Rance Mullinks.

Hindsight is 20/20, what Toronto SHOULD have done was deep-six Upshaw, put McGriff at 1B and DH'd Fielder. Instead- they deep-sixed Upshaw put McGriff at 1B, gave most DH at bats to Mullinks, and gave Fielder just 174 at bats in 74 games. They then released him and he went to Japan.

There is an apparent similarity in Fielder's treatment by Toronto and Ortiz' treatment by Minnesota.  Except I would argue Minny's treatment of Ortiz was worse- they let Ortiz go to play ManCaveItch.  Toronto let Fielder go to play McGriff.  Toronto had players/hitters of teh same "type" as Fielder- McGriff, Barfield, etc.  Minny seeme dto be betraying an organizational bias..

I'm just kidding, of course.  But, Sam Horn's career is the flip side to Ortiz' and Fielder's.  

Fielder went to Japan in 1989 and hit a ton before coming back.  The failure to play him in 87-88 was mostly Jimy Williams' doing, but Gillick allowed it to happen.

are eerily similar.  Howard has a one-year edge on the Hammer though.

Still that is one bad comparison to have.

Joe Blanton: Generally considered an innings eater with solid stuff, he threw 200 in his rookie season with a 3.5 ERA. He's 6'2 220. Not coincidentally, he got too fat and out of shape early in the season, and the A's put him on strict weight watch and had him running treadmill and stuff like that until he was back to normal.

I think fat pitchers are considered more horses. At least thats the impression i get.

Has everyone been addled by 15 years of juiced HR hitters?  If Howard hits 300+ HR then he had a good career.

I don't know that I've ever seen a good shot of him side by side with Jim Thome, but they're listed as the same height (6'4"), and only ten pounds apart (220 lb for Thome, 230 for Howard). If anything, I'd say that Thome is heavier.

Now, if he's in the league into his 30s, he'll probably get fat.