Boston Red Sox Pre-Season Top 20 in Review

by John Sickels on Nov 18, 2005 2:30 PM EST in News

Boston Red Sox PRE-SEASON Top 20 Prospects in Review

1) Hanley Ramirez, SS
Hit .271/.335/.385 with 26 steals (but 13 caught stealing) for Double-A Portland. Not a very impressive season overall. Best news is that he is still just 21 years old, but at some point the performance needs to match the hype.

2) Jon Papelbon, RHP
Pitched well at Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket, then posted a 3-1 record 2.65 ERA in 34 major league innings, 34/17 K/BB. I think he's ready for major league competition full-time in '06. Main question is whether he will start or relieve.

3) Brandon Moss, OF
Hit .268/.337/.441, 31 doubles, 16 homers for Portland. Large increase in his strikeout rate this year. I think he will stabilize between his '04 and '05 numbers, say .290ish with moderate power. Given his age (21), he has time to develop in several directions.

4) Anibal Sanchez, RHP
Confirmed status as top prospect, pitching well in the Carolina League and in Double-A. Portland numbers: 3-5, but 3.45 in 11 starts, 63/16 K/BB in 57 innings. I'd be leery of pushing him too quickly and wouldn't want to see him in the majors before August.

5) Jon Lester, LHP
11-6, 2.61 in 26 starts for Portland, 163/57 K/BB in 148 innings. Took a huge step forward this year, refining his control while maintaining his velocity and movement. A top prospect no question.

6) Dustin Pedroia, 2B
Hit .324/.409/.508 for Portland, but just .255/.356/.382 after promotion to Pawtucket. Maintained strong plate discipline in Triple-A and I think he will push his numbers back up, but perhaps more like a .280/.360/.420 type guy.

7) Christian Lara, SS
Toolsy shortstop hit .232/.304/.299 in 112 games for Class A Greenville. Best attributes are age (20) and athleticism, but he has a long way to go with the bat.

8) Luis Soto, OF
Hit .293/.377/.431 for short-season Lowell, but just .212/.247/.259 in 23 games for Greenville. Another guy with good tools but erratic performance.

9) Kelly Shoppach, C
Hit .253/.352/.507 with 26 homers for Pawtucket. Repeating the league and improved his performance only slightly. Good defense, good power, but has problems with contact.

10) Abe Alvarez, LHP
11-6, 4.85 in 26 starts for Pawtucket, 109/31 K/BB in 145 innings. Component ratios were very similar to 2004, and I think the rise in his ERA is misleading. Remains a possibility for back end of the rotation.

11) Ian Bladergroen, 1B
Hit just .240/.337/.331 in 75 games for Class A Wilmington, though he was injured for most of the season. Hard to know how seriously to take it due to wrist problems; need to see him healthy.

12) Andrew Dobies, LHP
Combined for 9-9 record, 4.07 ERA between Greenville and Wilmington. Similar to Abe Alvarez, a finesse lefty with good control. Will have to show he can handle higher levels. K/IP ratio was just mediocre at 102 in 144 innings.

13) Manny Delcarmen, RHP
Converted to relief and pitched well in both Double-A and Triple-A, looked good in 10-game audition with the Red Sox. Ready to contribute in the bullpen, although high-leverage situations should be limited pending further improvements in control.

14) Jeremy West, 1B
Hit .267/.340/.411 in 127 games for Portland, just 10 homers. Obviously he has to do better than that if he wants to play as a first baseman in the majors.

15) Mickey Hall, OF
Hit just .216/.304/.384 at Wilmington. Missed half the season with a broken finger. I thought he was a breakout candidate, but he regressed. Still very young at age 20 and has plenty of time to rebound.

16) Cla Meredith, RHP
Made surprise major league appearance after being a 2004 draftee. Pitched well in Double-A but looked rushed in Triple-A, with 5.59 ERA in 40 games, 63 hits allowed in 48 innings. Needs to consolidate.

17) Tommy Hottovy, LHP
Went 3-12, 5.45 in 23 starts for Wilmington, 82/37 K/BB in 104 innings. Very disappointing for a guy I thought was a major sleeper.

18) David Pauley, RHP
9-7, 3.81 in 27 starts for Portland, 104/34 K/BB in 156 innings. Good control, but K/IP and H/IP are not that good. Might be a Quadruple-A guy, although at age 22 he deserves slack.

19) Mike Rozier, LHP
6-5, 3.90 in 20 starts for Greenville. Good arm, but 52/49 K/BB in 92 innings is unattractive, fairly high walk rate without many strikeouts. Raw but physically promising.

20) Kyle Bono, RHP
4.07 ERA in 24 games for Wilmington, 56/32 K/BB in 49 innings. Good stuff but worse-than-expected control. Traded to Arizona.

The 2006 group will look a lot different, with draftees such as Craig Hansen and Jacoby Ellsbury taking prominent places on the list.

Although further progress needs to be made, there is no question but that the Red Sox farm system is greatly improved compared to five years ago.

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Comments

Hanley

At this point I'm having a hard time figuring out the difference between Hanley Ramirez and Alejandro Machado.

He's been BA's top Sox prospect for several years and I hope he drops and people finally start paying attention to hanley's inability to consistently perform well.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Nov 18, 2005 2:45 PM EST reply actions

Pedrioa

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Pedrioa was injured shortly after being promoted to Pawtucket. Bears mentioning given his poor performance relative to his play in Portland.

by RVachon on Nov 18, 2005 3:32 PM EST reply actions

Pedroi'a injury

Yes, Pedroia was struggling with a wrist injury after an HBP shortly after his promotion to Pawtucket.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Nov 18, 2005 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

Dustin Pedroia

He suffered from a bad wrist injury that kept him on the sidelines for weeks. He was headed to the big club injury killed that option. He did eventually comback but the wrist was still bothering him for weeks. I think his number reflect the wrist problems. He is the real deal with very fast hands. I expect him to make the club this spring. I would project him as a .280+ guy with some limited power.

by n on Nov 18, 2005 4:05 PM EST up reply actions

Pedroia

I heard a comparison to Marcus Giles without the power (i think that was in Baseball America)

Where do you guys think he projects to hit in a lineup? Will he have 15-20 HR power in the bigs eventually?

by rhodehead on Nov 18, 2005 3:55 PM EST reply actions

Eckstein

I think he's certainly capable of hitting 15+ home runs based on his performance as a 22-year-old in AA/AAA.

I don't, however, think he's going to be hitting .310 or better like Giles has a few times. I think "Eckstein with some pop" is a fairer projection.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Nov 18, 2005 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

How about

Ron Belliard with a little more OBP.

I know, I know - it's not kosher to compare players of different races, but I thought I'd give it a try.

Ron Belliard has had a few weak years, but I'd be happy if Pedroia is capable of Ron Belliard's good years.

PECOTA really likes Pedroia a lot.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/PEDROIA19830817A.php

by Klostrophobic on Nov 18, 2005 6:50 PM EST up reply actions

Why Eckstein?

This comparison drives me nuts. Just because they're short, white middle infielders doesn't mean they are comparable. They both have good OBP numbers, sure, but that's not exactly a reason to compare them. Pedroia's bigger (180 vs "160") and has more power (note on that weight: I've seen Pedroia up close, and he's definitely 180 ... he's a pretty solid guy). He's a second round draft pick who was a celebrated collegiate player, Eckstein was a 19th-round pick. Pedroia had a .917 OPS in AA as a 21 year-old, Eckstein was at .856 in AA when he was 24. Pedroia had better power stats at a younger age in A-ball, too. I mean, I guess "Eckstein with some pop" is technically accurate, but it's not very illuminating.

The Giles comparisons aren't bad (they're pretty close in size), but Pedroia has demonstrated a much better command of the strike zone while not having quite as much power (although Giles's 37 HR/.636 SLG in the Sally League seems like an outlier). I think there's no reason to think Pedroia can't reach the .311/.378/.443/.821 line Giles reached in '04. He may not (or his OBP/SLG numbers may be different), but there's nothing to suggest he won't.

Pedroia's been so good in his short minor league career, it's hard to make comps without making him seem like the next Joe Morgan. He may not be that, but I look at him and see a guy who has a chance to make multiple trips to the All-Star game at 2nd base.

Wallball Single

by TaoManny on Nov 21, 2005 11:50 AM EST up reply actions

Agree

Couldn't agree more about the Eckstein comps. they're just flat out ridiculous. Pedroia is a better fielder, has more tools, has produced better and was a better prospect out of college. he has a couple batting records from his collegiate years I think.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Nov 21, 2005 10:45 PM EST up reply actions

Pedroia

I did not hear about his wrist injury. That explains a lot.

I thought at the beginning of 2005 that Pedroia would be the starting second baseman in Boston by June, 2006, and that he would be a fine, fine ballplayer. I still do.

by Mike Green on Nov 18, 2005 3:56 PM EST reply actions

Mets fan here

Just writing to tell you guys to keep your grubby li'l hands off Milledge! Oh, and good luck thwarting the Evil Empire in '06!

by wrightfan5 on Nov 18, 2005 4:14 PM EST reply actions

Red Sox fan's

According to the Red Sox official website, John Lester is not on the 40 man roster and the date for setting it before the draft is tonight (i think). Can this possibly be true?

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Nov 18, 2005 9:00 PM EST reply actions

no way

i mean i know the sox are going through a transition time right now, but there is no way that they overlook that...cant be possibly true

lester has a bright bright future ahead of him and they wouldnt risk keepin him off the 40 man roster...

Sabean, stop giving away our 1st round draft picks!!

by z4 landshark on Nov 18, 2005 10:01 PM EST up reply actions

lester

I believe he was added today.

by DeisJJ on Nov 18, 2005 10:09 PM EST up reply actions

40 man

Courtesy of the Boston Globe:

The Sox purchased the contracts of righthanded pitchers Jesus Delgado, Harvey Garcia, and David Pauley, lefthanded pitcher Jon Lester, and outfielders Brandon Moss and David Murphy.

Additionally, the club today released outfielder Gabe Kapler from the 40-man roster.

by RVachon on Nov 18, 2005 10:54 PM EST up reply actions

Lester

Lester at 21 years old is probably the best pitching prospect the Sox have right now. There was no way they would "forget" to add him to the 40 man roster today. Hopefully they do not rush him to the majors. It would be nice to see a power lefty in the rotation in Boston.

by RandyKutcherHair on Nov 19, 2005 12:39 AM EST up reply actions

David Murphy

Maybe I am crazy; but why wasn't OF David Murphy on the pre-season top 20 list? From everything I have read the Sox organization is very high on him. I know he had a good year after he was drafted out of Baylor, regressed a bit with some injuries, and has come back strong. Will he be on the 2006 pre-season list?

by RandyKutcherHair on Nov 19, 2005 12:35 AM EST reply actions

Murphy

He first year out of Baylor wasn't very good. His second year was terrible. He's widely regarded as a terrible '03 draft pick.

He did show some signs of power in 2005 and had a pretty good showing in the AFL. I would guess he'll make an appearance somewhere in the 15-20 range for the Red Sox 2006 top propsects list.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Nov 19, 2005 12:48 AM EST up reply actions

hanley

I agree with the first post... Why does this guy get so much hype? He's yet to produce a season worth noticing, what makes anyone think he's going to be a "perennial all-star" at the major league level? As far as Pedroia goes, his PECOTA projections are very sparkling, on top of that, he has produced. He's the one we should be fawning over, use Hanley as trade bait

by huuuubaah on Nov 19, 2005 2:35 AM EST reply actions

Tools, my friend

Tools.

His ceiling is so much higher than Pedroia's ceiling. Hanley could flop and just be Donnie Sadler if he never develops those tools or he could develop into Alex Rodriguez.

Pedroia just doesn't have that potential. His upside is probably a Marcus Giles with less speed, less power and more contact ability.

by Klostrophobic on Nov 19, 2005 2:59 AM EST reply actions

tools

There's plenty of 5 tool guys and in most cases the ones who dont put up the numbers (who are now 22) dont get as much hype as Hanley

by PooNani on Nov 19, 2005 9:37 AM EST up reply actions

Right

I'm sorry, but A-Rod was cranking out 30+ HR at the MLB level when he was Hanley's age. The comparison isn't at all appropriate.

I was excited about Hanley's 'tools' when he was an 18-year-old in Lowell. Three years later, it's clear he hasn't made significant improvements in several areas of his game. How much longer does he sit at the top of the list based on scout's fantasies alone?

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Nov 19, 2005 1:06 PM EST up reply actions

agree

i am only mildly annoyed when i hear justin upton compared with a-rod, because upton is the top HS draftee since a-rod was picked in 1993. but for anybody else, it's almost ridiculous. hanley was 21 in AA, so there's still quite a bit of time for him to develop--but he's nothing like a-rod.

i would say, if hanley "hits it big" in the prospect jackpot, he can be as good a player as rafael furcal. and that's quite good, since furcal is an all-star caliber player.

by the way, i have approximately zero confidence in pecota's ability to project players based on 2 months of minor league numbers--with a sample size that small, stats aren't nearly as useful as scouting. so while i like pedroia as a prospect, he's nowhere near as good as last winter's pecota projection for him. same goes for mitch einertson, another '04 draftee who pecota fell in love with.

by jpahk on Nov 19, 2005 4:51 PM EST up reply actions

A-rod comps

A-rod comps are tough because he was so damn good. But if hanley DID go on to hit like A-Rod does now, the comp wouldn't be invalid just because they didn't get there at the same age.
Many young SS's, like Justin upton, are going to be compared to A-rod. BJ was as well at one point, though Jeter was a more common one, personally I think somewhere between the two is best-case scenario.
Don't be surprised if 17yo Elvis Andrus starts getting A-rod comparison's as well. What he did in the GCL at age 16 is certainly praiseworthy and worth keeping a sharp eye on.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Nov 19, 2005 6:58 PM EST up reply actions