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Arizona Round Up

Final Thoughts on the Arizona Fall League

I am going to do a larger review of this for the newsletter, but that will take a bit of time and may not be done until early next week. For today, I want to remind of you what I wrote about the AFL back in October..
My advice about the Arizona Fall League: treat it like a form of spring training. It's good if a guy does well there, but it is just one data point, and can't be taken too seriously. After the Ken Harvey Experience, I won't promote a guy to top prospect status just because of strong AFL performance.

With that in mind, a few short bullet-point observations.

*27 different players hit .300 or higher in the AFL this year.
*22 players slugged .500 or higher.
*The top three in slugging were Yankees prospect Eric Duncan (.734), Angels prospect Brandon Wood (.711), and Diamondbacks prospect Stephen Drew (.708). Duncan's performance was nice to see after he had a disappointing '05 campaign in Double-A.
*14 players had OBP of .400 or higher. The leader was Oakland prospect Andre Ethier at .495. Ethier also posted a 21/10 BB/K ratio in 82 at-bats. The question for him is power. He slugged .598 but hit just two homers.
*Daric Barton hit just .267. He had a .429 OBP but his SLG was disappointing at .400.
*Baltimore lefty Adam Loewen led the circuit with a 1.67 ERA.
*Only 7 inning-qualifying pitchers had ERAs less than 4.00.
*Twins prospect Glen Perkins posted a sound 39/6 K/BB in 32 innings, and reportedly looked much better than he did in the second half of the year in Double-A.
*Angels prospect Jered Weaver posted an ugly 5.47 ERA, but a pleasant 35/5 K/BB in 25 innings.
*Yankees relief prospect T.J. Beam posted a 20/2 K/BB in 18 innings. He is a sleeper prospect; keep an eye on him in 2006.

A more detailed report with team-by-team observations will go out to newsletter subscribers when it is finished.

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it was nice to see Angel Guzman bounce back..
I know his stats aren't outstanding but it was just nice to see him healthy and throwing.  A good starting point in a long journey back to solid top level prospect.

by cincod1 on Nov 17, 2005 2:14 PM EST reply actions  

re
Shane Komine had a 1.14 ERA to Loewen's 1.7
http://www.as-future.blogspot.com/

by blee1134 on Nov 17, 2005 2:54 PM EST reply actions  

true
true although he was just under the innings pitched ERA qualifier limit.

by John Sickels on Nov 17, 2005 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Jamie Shields...
If I recall correctly, didn't Jamie Shields win the ERA title because he had a 1.34 ERA while pitching 30+ innings...

Also, his K/BB ratio wasn't that bad either...he only walked 2 batters TOTAL.

by The Rocc on Nov 17, 2005 3:49 PM EST reply actions  

shields
The stats I saw had Shields at 1.74.

by John Sickels on Nov 17, 2005 3:56 PM EST reply actions  

Kevin Howard
John, what's the outlook for Reds INF Kevin Howard?  He's been good-not-great at every level, then proceeded to lead the AFL in batting (.409, I think).  Doesn't seem to have a heck of a lot of power or particularly great fielding credentials, but is he someone who could contribute in 2006?

by Doc Scott on Nov 17, 2005 4:17 PM EST reply actions  

howard
to be honest, I don't know much about howard and will have to research him when I do the Reds comments for the book.

by John Sickels on Nov 17, 2005 4:25 PM EST up reply actions  

i have a question
it looks like a number of pitchers have ugly ERAs that are out of line with their K/BB. does this mean that homers are much more common in the AFL, or that defense is very poor? neither one would particularly surprise me.

i guess an alternate possibility is that these pitchers throw so few innings that extreme DIPS outliers are quite a bit more likely. i haven't bothered to crunch all the numbers, i'm just interested in hearing the opinions of people who have gone to see AFL games this year.

by jpahk on Nov 17, 2005 5:02 PM EST reply actions  

Weird ERA's
jpahk, my theory is a simple one:

The AFL seems to be conducive to the longball and some of these pitchers, for example Weaver, are flyball pitchers so that probably explains some of it.

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Nov 17, 2005 7:33 PM EST reply actions  

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