Thoughts on the Arizona Fall League

I think that you do need to consider the specifics of each player in evaluating the meaning of AFL stats.  

For instance, it does not take a genius to understand how a guy like Harvey's inflated stats might not mean much, since he is the perfect example of a AAAA All-star.  However, for other players, this can be a legitimate proving ground.  

I think that AFL stats are more meaningful for pitchers, as the league is dominated by hitters.  Most of the position players in the league are AA level or higher, so success against these hitters looks pretty good for a pitcher, especially one trying to get healthy.  

Also, it is a good proving ground for recently-drafted players, or players coming off a breakout season.  Brandon Wood is getting a lot of attention right now, and his insane AFL stats support the contention that he is 'for real' after a breakout season.  It will remain to be seen how he handles AA, but this looks good for him.  It is also useful to see how college hitters do after switching to wood bats and going against more advanced pro players.  Thus, performances by guys like Stephen Drew and Jeff Clement do help you get an understanding of what the future may hold for these guys.  I think that this is particularly important for recently drafted guys, as their performance in the AFL could have a big impact in where their respective organizations start them out in 2006.  

 

Brandon Wood went deep in 8 of his first 9 games.
Is it just Arizona Fall League at work here? I don't think so, not in this case. I want to cut and paste an article from Baseball America because I think it's infomative and worthwhile.
I hope everyone agrees....here it is.........

"Getting 100 extra-base hits in a minor league season is extremely rare. How rare? So rare that we couldn't find the last instance. Piatt had 91 in 1999 and Joe Dillon had 92 last year, but the lack of computerized minor league records before the mid-1980s makes this a difficult question to answer.

Fortunately, minor league researcher Bob Hoie (San Marino, Calif.) came to the rescue. Hoie, who helped launch SABR's invaluable three-volume "Minor League Stars" series, emailed BaseballAmerica.com general manager Kevin Goldstein with this information:

In your article on the top prospects in the California League, you mentioned with respect to Brandon Wood that the records were "murky" about the last player to reach the century mark. I think the last to do it was Len Tucker. He had 104 extra-base hits in 140 games with Pampa in the old Class B Southwestern League in 1956.

According to my records, the highest total was 126 (in 197 games) by Tony Lazzeri with Salt Lake City (Pacific Coast) in 1925. Thirty-one players have reached 100 extra-base hits a total of 38 times, exactly half of them in the long season PCL from 1923-35. The last of that group was Joe DiMaggio with 100 in 172 games.

Wood's average of .75 XBH/G (101 in 134) has been exceeded just five times: Gordon Nell, Pampa 1939 (.83, 112 in 135 games) and 1940 (.77, 103 in 133); Bob Crues, Amarillo 1948 (.79, 110 in 140); Moses Solomon, Hutchinson 1923 (.78, 104 in 134); and Cecil "Dynamite" Dunn, Alexandria 1936 (.76, 105 in 139).

I live about 35 miles from Rancho Cucamonga and saw Wood about a dozen times. He looks like the real deal. Of course, I thought Jesus Colome was one of the best prospects I ever had seen in the California League, but that was when we all thought he was 19 rather than 22.

Big leaguers have totaled 100 extra-base hits in a season just 15 times, though it has happened on six occasions since 1995. Babe Ruth holds the record with 119 in 1921. Lou Gehrig (117 in 1927, 100 in 1930), Chuck Klein (107 in 1930, 103 in 1932) and Todd Helton (105 in 2001, 103 in 2000) are the only players to accomplish the feat twice.

Every eligible player to reach triple digits is in the Hall of Fame: Ruth, Gehrig, Klein, Hank Greenberg (103 in 1937), Stan Musial (103 in 1948), Rogers Hornsby (102 in 1922) and Jimmie Foxx (100 in 1932). The others to pull it off in recent seasons are Barry Bonds (107 in 2001), Albert Belle (103 in 1995), Sammy Sosa (103 in 2001) and Luis Gonzalez (100 in 2001).

I think the AFL might help a guy like him.  He is coming off Tommy John and has always had doubters because of size.  He is pitching very well against the top players, and this might help show people that he can become a major league starter and not just a reliever or a AAAA starter.

He is showing nice stuff there and his stats are equally nice, so this league could very well increase his stock more than others.  He will never be considered elite, but a fringe major league pitcher proving to organizations that he can compete against the studs is probably more important or critical to a player's career than some other player moving up a prospect top 100 list after a good performance.

One thing I like to look at are the batters strikeouts when they face low minors pitchers like this.  If you strike out a lot against these guys, you're going to have problems, even the .350 hitters.

I don't know if he'll see this, but:

At point should I, as a Ranger fan, take what Wes Littleton(who a lot of people were high on after his 2003 pro debut) is doing as something big?

So far, 0.84 ERA, 10.2 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 15 K.