Random Thoughts on Robinson Cano

by John Sickels on Oct 14, 2005 2:24 PM EDT in News Comment 20 comments

Robinson Cano (Reuters photo)

Random, Non-Organized Thoughts on Robinson Cano

I have been procrastinating on this one for some time, since I'm not really sure WHAT I think about him. Cano's minor league track record is decent, but he's never been truly outstanding. His performance in the majors this year (.297/.320/.458) is actually better than most of his numbers in the minors. His career marks entering '05 were .273/.327/.415. Given his age (23 this month), I think his improvement is probably legitimate, particularly in the power department. He hit 42 doubles this year between Columbus and New York; his previous high was 29. Sustainable power spikes often show up in the doubles department first. On the other hand, he hits the ball on the ground a lot and is vulnerable to the double play. This may inhibit his power production down the road.

I'm not enamored of Cano's low walk rate. He drew just 16 free passes for the Yanks. But his strikeout rate is not excessive, with 68 whiffs in 522 at-bats, and I think he can improve his strike zone judgment gradually.

I don't have a good feel for Cano's defense, and would appreciate observations and opinions from those who do.

As for what the future holds, to be honest I find it difficult to project. I think there is a lot of potential variation with this one. Cano could develop his power much further and end up as a 20+ homer guy. Or he could concentrate on batting average and OBP with less emphasis on power. Given a normal growth curve, he should certainly be able to hold his job and improve on where he is now. I also think it possible that he may regress to some extent in 2006, perhaps a batting average and OBP decline some 20-30 points as the pitchers adjust.

My guess, not projection, is that Cano will end up with career major league numbers something like .280/.330/.440, with individual yearly variations up to 20-30 points either side of those margins.

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Defense and other stuff...

Really good range to the glove side, so-so to the other side. He has mental lapses that lead to high error totals and it seems as though it comes in streaks so when he makes one error, there's a chance it could be a 3-error week. I think he's a solid defender right now (wasn't as good over the last month or so of the season) with a chance to be a very good one if he only improves his consistency. I don't see where the concern about his lower half that BA would always voice could come into play.

Offensively he hits the ball hard on a consistent basis. What he'll have to work on is waiting for the RIGHT pitch. What I mean by this is that he has a good idea of strikes and balls, but just has a tendency to swing at any strike rather than swinging at any good strike. I don't think he'll ever be a big HR guy due to his GB tendencies, but I think he can develop into a consistent 20 HR threat.

(More after class).

...NJASDJDH...

by Fabian on Oct 14, 2005 2:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

defensive statistics:

Cano's Defensive Numbers.

Fielding Percentage: ranked 7th of top 8 AL qualifiers.

Range Factor Ranked 2nd of 8.

Zone Rating: Ranked 7th of 8.

Baseball Prospectus: RAA of -4 (below average in other words)

by John Sickels on Oct 14, 2005 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

and a...

...Rate2 of 96, which is a bit below average (but not horribly so).

by sabernar on Oct 14, 2005 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cano

I liked his bat in the minors. He should hit near the bottom of the order (8th or 9th). I think his walk rate will increase as he ages and gets more experience in the majors. As for his defense, the best way to describe him is "hands of steel". The Yankees have to be excited about developing a young player for the first time in a while (and keeping him).

by UncleMiltie on Oct 14, 2005 2:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I disagree with almost everything

Given Cano's low K rate of 1/9 - he is a prototypical 2nd hitter that can make contact and is perfect for hit and run scenarios. His spikes of power are also a nice thing to have in the 2nd spot as well. I agree with your assessment of his improving walk rate (something in line with a Chase Utley this year) which will make him even more valuable as a #2 hitter. If he significantly regresses offensively - then yes - a number 8 or 9 spot is realistic however given what he did this year - he should remain a #2 hitter until he shows otherwise.

He has great range and it is not a "hands of steel" issue but rather a mental concentration issue. He has more issues making the routine play than he does diving to his glove side 20 ft into right field.

by slickwdb on Oct 14, 2005 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defense

I watched him almost every day in 2005. His range looks pretty good but what I really like is his DP. He can block incoming runners pretty good using the bag and gets rid of the ball in no time.

Do you think he can remain a solid defender as he gets bigger? That was the D'Backs worry and why they didn't go for him in the Vazquez trade.

by Stephcaflowne on Oct 14, 2005 3:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cano

I'm a Yanks fan and watched most of their games this year.

The projection on Cano is fair and I agree that the possibilty of a dip in average next year certainly exists. As the league smartens up to his free-swinging ways and gets a better feel of his strengths and weaknesses, I can definitely see that happening. To a degree, it has happened already this year as he cooled off considerably after a torrid start. But to his credit, he made the necessary adjustments and finished very strong.

As for his defense, I think he lacks the ideal range of a 2B, but he has very fluid/natural actions of a 2B as well as superior instincts to offset the lack of true range. His hands are ok, but as another poster said, he makes too many careless mistakes. Hopefully, that will change with more experience.

Overall, while he doesn't do anything in particular that stands out, it became clear to me that this guy is just a good ball player. His dad was a minor leaguer and he seems like he's got a lot of those baseball instincts you cannot teach. That said, he also seems very non-chalant (spell?) about everything that he does which may lead some to believe he doesn't work hard. That would be a shame if he didn't, because if he did, I think he has a chance to be very good. Mike Young of Texas is someone I think of who had a similar offensive profile and worked hard to make himself a star. I think Cano has that kind of ceiling (with the bat only).

by dkny22 on Oct 14, 2005 3:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

diamondbacks

the diamondbacks didn't even want Cano in the Randy Johnson trade. I bet they feel pretty stupid about that now.

by wright5reyes7 on Oct 14, 2005 4:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cano

will be off of 2B in about 4 years and be a journeyman utility guy with some team trying him in LF. I've watched about 15 games this season and I'm underwhelmed by his D. His bat has some pop, but he doesn't understand the strike zone.

He's clearly the worst AL East 2B and George won't be happy with that.

Roberts, Hill/Adams/Hudson, Cantu, Pedroia are all better players.

by So Cal Bob on Oct 14, 2005 5:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ha ha

It's a good thing you specified Pedroia because I was about to say no way is he worse than Graffanino.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 14, 2005 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to argue, but ...

Other than expected improvement/decline due to their respective ages, it is easy to make an argument for Graffanino being better.

Using BP stats as a basis:
Graffanino .287 KC .288 Bos (EQA) 2005
Cano .275

Defense
Graffanino 108 career rate2 (well above average - 2005 is his only below average year - decline starting or fluke)
Cano 96 somewhat below average

It will be interesting to see which one Pecota will predict better things out of next year.

by cdamon on Oct 14, 2005 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No argument

I'm certainly willing to let someone make the argument that a Yankee is inferior to a Red Sox.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 14, 2005 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Robinson C ano

On Robinson Cano's Defense.
I watched him quite a bit this season. He normally will not get in front of hard hit ball attempting to short hop or backhand. He normally will get eaten up but a tough play.
His range is Ok as he is fast. On The double play he doesn't hang in well and is intimidated by the runner. He future is in LF (not with the Yankees) if he continues to hit like he did.

by rc44484 on Oct 16, 2005 5:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Unreal Expectations

I thought the talk from the announcers during the first round of the playoffs was pretty funny. Granted the Yankees never have young players but what they were saying about Cano's ceiling was unreal. From winning a batting title to hitting 30 homers plus just doesn't seem very likely to me. Cano's not even as good a player as Angel Berroa and now he is being talked about as an all-star. And people think that Derek Jeter is overrated -- at least he produces!

by rory b bellows on Oct 16, 2005 6:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Torre on Cano

What? You didn't agree with Torre's Rod Carew comp for Cano? LOL!!!

"If you don't like Torey Lovullo, then you don't like baseball." Sparky Anderson

by natsfan2005 on Oct 16, 2005 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He didn't...

Actually compare him to Carew did he?

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Oct 16, 2005 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh....

...he DID. Multiple times. And now all the Yankees fans are believing it. And the kid's going to get booed when he doesn't live up to the hype.

by MontrealMets on Oct 16, 2005 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Torre not quite so crazy

Torre did make a comparison about one aspect of Cano's game to Carew (which was a little nutty) but he did later say he didn't think Cano was as good as Carew, or that he would be as good. I haven't met a Yankee fan yet who thinks Cano will be as good as Carew.

And worse than Berroa? How is a guy who is five years younger who already hits for a better average, slightly higher OBP and significantly higher SLG worse? He's also a better hitter than Hudson (at least judging by this year) and I guarantee Graffanino will not hit .309 this year. He'll be 34, and his lifetime rate stats are also inferior to Cano's (yeah, it's one season, but that's all we have to go on).

by mrtapeworm on Oct 17, 2005 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs